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Author | Topic: Will Trump fail to build "The Wall" if all 7 border Republican Reps oppose funding? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
I was commenting on the immigration issue.
Marc said that Democrats were more moral during the upheavals of the 50s and 60s. Faith said that she hates the immigration views of people here. Those were my response issues.
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New Cat's Eye Inactive Member |
That is indeed the unscientific claim we hear often and I honestly think that you are just teeing up an examination as opposed to expressing your actual conclusion. Well, I also pointed out the Ecological Fallacy. But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole. Also, voting for Trump wasn't a publicly popular position, so I could see why Trump voters would have been keeping their mouths shut - which just adds weight to my opinion. I haven't analyzed the data, and I'm not saying that the results of the polls are certainly wrong. I'm saying that you haven't presented the analysis either, and that we cannot assume that they are correct - plus I doubt they're accurate because of the reasons above. So, as it stands, that you have two numbers that are both 51% appears to be merely a coincidence. Maybe it's not, but you haven't shown that.
Hypothesis Number One Donald J. Trump has voters that generally refuse to speak to Exit Poll questioners so they get left out from the surveys and thus the field data for the Exit Polls are wrong and thus the networks place weight on misleading and flat out wrong voter turnout opinion. The final vote talley will be different from what the Exit Polls showed voters opposed and/or supported and Donald Trump will generally perform better in the actual vote on election day than the election day exit polls showed. (I personally think this hypothesis will be null once we look at all the states data ) Yeah, that'd be cool to see. I eagerly await you supporting your argument.
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole. What is that "conclusion" based on? And isn't the real question not whether they care about exit polls, but whether a particular group participated in them in enough numbers to reasonably identify their position? Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000
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New Cat's Eye Inactive Member |
But my actual conclusion is that people who voted for Trump aren't the type of people that care about exit polls - and that means that you can't assume that the results from 0.03% of the group accurately reflects the whole. What is that "conclusion" based on? Well, there's the math - in that 0.03% is pretty small and it wouldn't be a fair assumption to just take that as representing the whole at face value. Then, there's the knowledge of what kinds of people are supporting Trump and how they behave - they don't seem like the exit-poll type. Given those two, I think it's fair to say that we can't assume the number accurately represents the whole.
And isn't the real question not whether they care about exit polls, but whether a particular group participated in them in enough numbers to reasonably identify their position? By "don't care" I meant "didn't take them".
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Dr Adequate Member (Idle past 310 days) Posts: 16113 Joined:
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Then, there's the knowledge of what kinds of people are supporting Trump and how they behave - they don't seem like the exit-poll type. They certainly seem like shy retiring types who are coy and diffident about expressing their opinions.
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
Well, there's the math - in that 0.03% is pretty small and it wouldn't be a fair assumption to just take that as representing the whole at face value. Just how many folks do you think show up in most national polls? If you were sampling a city for air quality, what percentage of the city air would you try to run through your equipment? Statistically, what percentage of 63 million people is required to have a reasonable sample?
By "don't care" I meant "didn't take them". If you did not mean to base your statement on "types", then how are you concluding that they did not participate when clearly some did? You are saying that Trump supporters seem like the kind of folks that "didn't take them?" How can you conclude that? Your logic is pretty bad here. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000
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New Cat's Eye Inactive Member |
Your logic is pretty bad here. Not as bad as your comprehension...
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
Not as bad as your comprehension... What I do comprehend is that your attempt to paint the sampling of Trump voters as somehow harder than taking any other sample is without basis. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
85% of Republicans support it, while 14% oppose.
86% of Democrats oppose it, while 10% oppose Independents are split 48-48. I suspect that the opposition to the wall, would be in the majority, if not for the shameful support from so many prominent white Democrats. Texas is a conservative state, but the support is still about at the marginal level. In the 2022 Governor's race, Abbott leads O'Rourke 52 to 37. (Abott crushed the pro-abortion Dennese Richards among Hispanic voters, in 2014. Richard's only "regret" was not opposing gun-rights, as she was essentially neutral on the issue, in 2014. She endorsed Hillary Clinton, in 2016, due to her "progressive" record on guns, verses Sanders) O'Rourke should apologize for the disgraceful white Democratic support for the wall ( he seems to support removing the El Paso wall, or he used to)
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2417 Joined: Member Rating: 1.2 |
The exact same poll has Gregg Abbott at a 52% favorable rating with 42% disapproval.
Beto is 36% positive and 47% negative. Biden is 32% positive and 64% negative. But the wall is 45% opposed, with just 51% of registered Texas voters supporting. (A national Quinnipiac poll, from a few months ago, had more registered voters opposing the wall, than supporting it) So go shove the wall up your butts, you white-partisan Democratic wall-supporters!
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vimesey Member (Idle past 98 days) Posts: 1398 From: Birmingham, England Joined: |
Another tragedy, and yet more evidence that the gun lobby's argument that everyone being armed would prevent such tragedies, is a load of shit. (A retired cop shot at the gunman and ended up not stopping him one bit, instead being shot dead himself). I would be interested to see how much the racist right wing press in America will try to defend the killer. Do they feel there's enough groundswell of racist support to be able to finally fully come out and openly espouse racism.Edited by vimesey, : (Wrong thread - sorry) Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?
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jar Member (Idle past 419 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
Except no one is claiming that more guns would prevent such tragedies. The issue is not the guns but rather the root cause of such behavior.
My Website: My Website
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vimesey Member (Idle past 98 days) Posts: 1398 From: Birmingham, England Joined: |
I was referencing the NRA's rhetoric about it. Here's an extract from an article in Time about what Wayne LaPierre once said:
The notion that a “good guy with a gun” can prevent a mass shooting gained traction after the 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., when NRA then-Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre said, “the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun” during a defiant press conference amid rising calls for gun control. Many states have taken that advice to heart in the years since. In states where Republicans have control, laws that loosen gun restrictions increased by 75% in the wake of mass shootings, according to a 2019 Harvard Business School report. Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?
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jar Member (Idle past 419 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
Yup, the NRA and Wayne as well as ALL of the current suits are simply grifters. The NRA has long lost any valued purpose.
There are other firearm organizations including the Liberal Gun Club that emphasizes the need for root cause mitigation.My Website: My Website
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Percy Member Posts: 22489 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.0 |
Odd thread choice for this.
--Percy
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