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Author Topic:   Expressing your beliefs as a percentage
Butterflytyrant
Member (Idle past 4422 days)
Posts: 415
From: Australia
Joined: 06-28-2011


Message 16 of 46 (623476)
07-10-2011 7:54 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by jar
07-08-2011 11:48 AM


Re: Only 100%
The question was :
Expressed as a percentage, how sure are you that your particular version of creation is correct
The total number cannot exceed 100%. You cannot be more than 100% sure of something. With beliefs, to be 90% sure of YEC means that there can be a total of 10% of doubt or OEC or some other idea. You cannot be 90% sure of YEC and also 90% sure of OEC.
The measure was how sure are you, this can only total 100%

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 Message 10 by jar, posted 07-08-2011 11:48 AM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
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jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 17 of 46 (623477)
07-10-2011 7:58 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by Butterflytyrant
07-10-2011 7:54 PM


Re: Only 100%
Why?
I mentioned "Why not 90% Hindu plus 90% Abrahamic plus 90% science pluse 90% Buddhist?"
Why can I not be 90% sure of each of those?

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 16 by Butterflytyrant, posted 07-10-2011 7:54 PM Butterflytyrant has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by Straggler, posted 07-10-2011 8:02 PM jar has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 18 of 46 (623478)
07-10-2011 8:02 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by jar
07-10-2011 7:58 PM


Re: Only 100%
jar writes:
I mentioned "Why not 90% Hindu plus 90% Abrahamic plus 90% science pluse 90% Buddhist?"
Why can I not be 90% sure of each of those?
Because that means that you are 360% certain that one of those options is true....?
Surely you can see where the idea that a probability estimation should add up to 100% come's from?

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 Message 17 by jar, posted 07-10-2011 7:58 PM jar has replied

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jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 19 of 46 (623481)
07-10-2011 8:17 PM
Reply to: Message 18 by Straggler
07-10-2011 8:02 PM


Re: Only 100%
No, it means I am 10% unsure of each.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

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Replies to this message:
 Message 20 by Butterflytyrant, posted 07-10-2011 8:25 PM jar has replied

  
Butterflytyrant
Member (Idle past 4422 days)
Posts: 415
From: Australia
Joined: 06-28-2011


Message 20 of 46 (623483)
07-10-2011 8:25 PM
Reply to: Message 19 by jar
07-10-2011 8:17 PM


Re: Only 100%
By this reasoning, you could be 100% sure and 0% unsure that YEC is correct.
Ypou could also be 100% sure and 0% unsure that OEC is correct.
And 100% sure and 0% unsure that the Hindu teachings are correct.
In this example, you would be 100% sure and 0% unsure that 3 different things are correct?
The total sum can only be 100%
If you had three different ideas you were equally sure of, they would have to be spread accross the total 100%.
You cant exceed 100% even with a certain percentage of unsure.

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 Message 19 by jar, posted 07-10-2011 8:17 PM jar has replied

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 Message 21 by jar, posted 07-10-2011 8:29 PM Butterflytyrant has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 21 of 46 (623484)
07-10-2011 8:29 PM
Reply to: Message 20 by Butterflytyrant
07-10-2011 8:25 PM


Re: Only 100%
Only if you expect reason, logic or consistency.
When it comes to beliefs, reason, logic, rationality and consistency are irrelevant.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 20 by Butterflytyrant, posted 07-10-2011 8:25 PM Butterflytyrant has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 22 by Butterflytyrant, posted 07-11-2011 4:14 AM jar has replied

  
Butterflytyrant
Member (Idle past 4422 days)
Posts: 415
From: Australia
Joined: 06-28-2011


Message 22 of 46 (623509)
07-11-2011 4:14 AM
Reply to: Message 21 by jar
07-10-2011 8:29 PM


Re: Only 100%
Only if you expect reason, logic or consistency.
When it comes to beliefs, reason, logic, rationality and consistency are irrelevant.
Using this logic, you could have answered with anything.
Question : Expressed as a percentage, how sure are you that your particular version of creation is correct?
Answer : Apples and sheep
Why answer at all?
This is getting off topic though. I assumed, perhaps incorrectly that people would recognise that 100% is the maximum amount allowable. There is no greater total of sums than 100%. If a person is conflicted about their view, that conflict can be scaled into 100%.

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 Message 21 by jar, posted 07-10-2011 8:29 PM jar has replied

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 Message 23 by jar, posted 07-11-2011 9:32 AM Butterflytyrant has seen this message but not replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 23 of 46 (623540)
07-11-2011 9:32 AM
Reply to: Message 22 by Butterflytyrant
07-11-2011 4:14 AM


Re: Only 100%
Well, apples and sheep are not percentages.
But the reason I responded was to try to educate you a little on the subject of beliefs and hopefully show you how silly the question you ask really is.
I am 99% sure that Evolution happened, 90%sure that the Theory of Evolution is the best explanation of how that happened so far and 100% sure that all we have found is how God did it.
I am also 90% sure that Hinduism and Buddhism and Islam and Taoism and animism and agnosticism and atheism are all partly true and partly wrong.
Beliefs are not subject to reason, logic, reality or consistency.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

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 Message 22 by Butterflytyrant, posted 07-11-2011 4:14 AM Butterflytyrant has seen this message but not replied

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 Message 24 by Straggler, posted 07-11-2011 1:50 PM jar has replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 24 of 46 (623554)
07-11-2011 1:50 PM
Reply to: Message 23 by jar
07-11-2011 9:32 AM


Re: Only 100%
jar writes:
Beliefs are not subject to reason, logic, reality or consistency.
So on what basis do you berate people like Buz for taking unreasonable, illogical, unreal and inconsistent positions when discussing their beliefs?
There are lots of examples of you doing this and it seems a bit inconsistent given the position you are espousing in this thread.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 23 by jar, posted 07-11-2011 9:32 AM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 25 by jar, posted 07-11-2011 3:23 PM Straggler has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 25 of 46 (623561)
07-11-2011 3:23 PM
Reply to: Message 24 by Straggler
07-11-2011 1:50 PM


Belief vs fact
I don't to the best of my knowledge.
I take exception to Buz claiming fact as opposed to belief. I have no problem with Buz believing that the Exodus happened or that Adam & Eve were real people or most any other however silly belief he might express, but when he goes beyond simply saying that he believes the Exodus happens and tries to prove as a factual matter that the Exodus really did happen, I IMHO rightly take exception.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 24 by Straggler, posted 07-11-2011 1:50 PM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 27 by Chuck77, posted 07-12-2011 2:26 AM jar has replied
 Message 29 by Straggler, posted 07-12-2011 6:53 AM jar has replied

  
Jon
Inactive Member


Message 26 of 46 (623611)
07-11-2011 11:32 PM


Why cannot I be equally confident of a variety of different things?
Who in the hell made up this nonsense that my confidence in everything in the world has to add up to 100%?
Absolute stupidity.

Love your enemies!

  
Chuck77
Inactive Member


Message 27 of 46 (623620)
07-12-2011 2:26 AM
Reply to: Message 25 by jar
07-11-2011 3:23 PM


Re: Belief vs fact
jar writes:
I have no problem with Buz believing that the Exodus happened or that Adam & Eve were real people or most any other however silly belief he might express, but when he goes beyond simply saying that he believes the Exodus happens and tries to prove as a factual matter that the Exodus really did happen, I IMHO rightly take exception.
I don't to the best of my knowledge.
I take exception to Buz claiming fact as opposed to belief. I have no problem with Buz believing that the Exodus happened or that Adam & Eve were real people or most any other however silly belief he might express, but when he goes beyond simply saying that he believes the Exodus happens and tries to prove as a factual matter that the Exodus really did happen, I IMHO rightly take exception.
Well, that's so nice of you to offer Buz such a gesture of believeing what he wants until (god forbid) he actually tries to backup or prove what he believes to be true, or in your words "tries to prove". THAT'S when you take exception? It's such a horrible thing when someone actually TRIES to prove something aye?
Wonderful, So, you are rather tolerant of people who believe blindly anything they are told but when they investigate and TRY to establish a basis for their beliefs that's when you speak up. How dare they!
When Darwin was studying the finch beaks on The Galpagos Islands and made some predictions based on what he believed was happening I wonder what would have happened if he took your approach.
Oh wait, I know the answer, NOTHING.
Edited by Chuck77, : No reason given.
Edited by Chuck77, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by jar, posted 07-11-2011 3:23 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 28 by Larni, posted 07-12-2011 4:04 AM Chuck77 has not replied
 Message 30 by jar, posted 07-12-2011 9:01 AM Chuck77 has not replied

  
Larni
Member (Idle past 164 days)
Posts: 4000
From: Liverpool
Joined: 09-16-2005


Message 28 of 46 (623633)
07-12-2011 4:04 AM
Reply to: Message 27 by Chuck77
07-12-2011 2:26 AM


Re: Belief vs fact
Wonderful, So, you are rather tolerant of people who believe blindly anything they are told but when they investigate and TRY to establish a basis for their beliefs that's when you speak up. How dare they!
The problem people have with buzz is that he ignores evidence that contradicts his beliefs and fails to provide any evidence that would support his beliefs.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 27 by Chuck77, posted 07-12-2011 2:26 AM Chuck77 has not replied

  
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 29 of 46 (623640)
07-12-2011 6:53 AM
Reply to: Message 25 by jar
07-11-2011 3:23 PM


Re: Belief vs fact
jar writes:
I take exception to Buz claiming fact as opposed to belief.
Well if you are able to make a distinction between facts and wrong-headed belief in what the facts are you should be able to respond to the question being posed in this OP in the spirit it was quite obviously intended rather than treat poor Butterfly to a lecture on your views regarding the innate irrationality of belief.
Based on the facts as you consider them to be how confident are you (expressed as a percentage to give some indication of estimated probablity) in your conclusions regarding evolution, the formation of the universe etc...?
That is the question being asked. And saying that you are 90% certain of 4 different mutually exclusive accounts doesn't really help does it?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by jar, posted 07-11-2011 3:23 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 31 by jar, posted 07-12-2011 9:03 AM Straggler has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 30 of 46 (623645)
07-12-2011 9:01 AM
Reply to: Message 27 by Chuck77
07-12-2011 2:26 AM


Re: Belief vs fact
HUH?
Buz is of course free to try to prove something like the Exodus or Biblical Flood, however he has NEVER been able to offer any evidence that the Exodus actually happened and the Biblical Flood has been absolutely refuted.
The problem is stating that a belief is a fact w9ithout presenting the evidence to support that assertion.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 27 by Chuck77, posted 07-12-2011 2:26 AM Chuck77 has not replied

  
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