Increase in Natural Disasters? Prophesied?

I know Jar covered this already. I want to emphasize the significance of this. Something must be compared to some baseline to say if there is an increase or not. It is problems at this level, Buzz, that have reduced your credibility to somewhere just under zero. This is very, very simple; not rocket science.

No, actually it is not fine. When the occurance of events is highly variable with some possible cyclical variations thrown in then to simply find a positive slope with time is not adequate.It is necessary to sort out the variation and any cyclical patterns and from that determine if there is a real positive signel left. It requires a fair amount of mathematical care. I've not done anything with something as complex as weather patterns and earthquakes but the very simple stuff I have touched taught me that. I couldn't do it again today (forgot a lot ).

Eyeballing that kind of noisy plot really doesn't cut it but I'll stick my neck out and say that there is a hint of something starting at about 1990. Hardly a match to Buzz's "prophesy".

Too bad we closed the Pat Robertson thread.Is there an increase in these kind of crazy pronouncements by Pat Robertson? He looks like the ravings of someone sufffering from a dementia.