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Author Topic:   The Giant Pool Of Money. Implications
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1467 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 61 of 423 (586460)
10-13-2010 12:20 PM
Reply to: Message 58 by Buzsaw
10-13-2010 9:08 AM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
Ruff, who's been, for decades, predicting the ultimate demise of the $$ explains the difference between inflation of the $$ and the inflation of prices; the $$ supply inflating first, followed by the inflation of prices.
Well, great. Let's have money inflation! I mean, if prices don't go up, where's the downside? If you have more dollars but stuff still costs the same - you're rich!
When conservatives like you try to argue that economies aren't zero-sum, isn't this what you're talking about? Money inflation? In other words - the rising tide that lifts all boats?
If you're arguing that money inflation isn't the same as price inflation, then you're proving the efficacy and wisdom of stimulus.
Inflation is an increase in the supply of money. It should really be called dilution because it dilutes the value of existing dollars.
But Ruff is wrong. If prices stay the same then nothing is being diluted, because the "value of a dollar" isn't in how many other dollars there are. The value of a dollar is what you can buy with it. Only price inflation reduces the value of a dollar. Nobody's checking the number of dollars there are before you buy something. The value of your dollars has nothing to do with how many other dollars there are, just as the value of a person has nothing to do with how many people there are on Earth.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 58 by Buzsaw, posted 10-13-2010 9:08 AM Buzsaw has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 62 by Buzsaw, posted 10-13-2010 1:55 PM crashfrog has replied

  
Buzsaw
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 62 of 423 (586481)
10-13-2010 1:55 PM
Reply to: Message 61 by crashfrog
10-13-2010 12:20 PM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
crashfrog writes:
But Ruff is wrong. If prices stay the same then nothing is being diluted.......
But Crashfrog, prices are indeed going up bigtime in the commodity market. That's the first phase of the trickle down to the gas stations the food markets, the feed lots-to-beef, to clothes, hardware and evertything else.
All of the above will soon be affected by higher commoditys that the above are made from. You don't suddenly see price inflation. As Ruff explains, the investors are more astute as to what happens when your gubm't prints and digitally creates unbacked money. Investors know. All that you/they, the sheeple see is the here and now. Go figure and prepare yourself. The retirement funds of the sheeple are being confiscated by big gubm't via inflation. On top of that they ever increase your taxes.
This gubm't is deliberately destroying the $$ to impoverish the sheeple and empower themselves. That's how it's done by tyrannical despots; impoverish and disarm.
THE COMING ELECTIONS WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE US SURVIVES MONETARILY IF IT ISN'T ALREADY TOO LATE.
Ruff on prices writes:
For example, Agricultural Raw Materials are up 24%, The Mineral Index is up 25%, The Metals Price Index is up 26%, Coffee is up 45%, Barley is up 32%, Oranges are up 35%, Beef is up 23%, Pork is up 68%, Salmon is up 30%, Sugar is up 24%, Wool is up 30%, Cotton is up 40%, Palm oil is up 26%, Hides is up 25%, Rubber is up 62%, Iron Ore up 103%. Those are prices at the wholesale level. ..............
Monetary inflation is here. Price inflation is coming. Commodity price inflation is also here. ............

BUZSAW B 4 U 2 C Y BUZ SAW.
The immeasurable present eternally extends the infinite past and infinitely consumes the eternal future.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 61 by crashfrog, posted 10-13-2010 12:20 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 64 by crashfrog, posted 10-13-2010 4:50 PM Buzsaw has not replied
 Message 65 by Dr Adequate, posted 10-13-2010 5:34 PM Buzsaw has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 285 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 63 of 423 (586491)
10-13-2010 2:36 PM
Reply to: Message 58 by Buzsaw
10-13-2010 9:08 AM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
Ruff, who's been, for decades, predicting the ultimate demise of the $$ ...
That's hardly a recommendation, is it? While one might applaud his consistency, anyone who's been predicting imminent hyperinflation since 1978 has spent thirty-two straight years being wrong.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 58 by Buzsaw, posted 10-13-2010 9:08 AM Buzsaw has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 66 by Buzsaw, posted 10-13-2010 9:21 PM Dr Adequate has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1467 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 64 of 423 (586516)
10-13-2010 4:50 PM
Reply to: Message 62 by Buzsaw
10-13-2010 1:55 PM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
But Crashfrog, prices are indeed going up bigtime in the commodity market.
Except that they're not. Commodities crashed in 2008, along with most everything else, because of the enormous 1.5 trillion dollar shortfall in demand.
Here's the classic problem you always have, Buz. You don't know how to assess the credibility of a source. You could have looked up the commodities market yourself, and seen how they declined in 2008 due to the shortfall in demand, but in your mind the guy that by your own admission has been reliably wrong for decades is the guy to listen to, because he votes the same way as you.
On top of that they ever increase your taxes.
Obama lowered taxes, first thing he did, but you'd never know it to listen to conservatives. Some people!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 62 by Buzsaw, posted 10-13-2010 1:55 PM Buzsaw has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 285 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 65 of 423 (586524)
10-13-2010 5:34 PM
Reply to: Message 62 by Buzsaw
10-13-2010 1:55 PM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
This gubm't is deliberately destroying the $$ to impoverish the sheeple and empower themselves. That's how it's done by tyrannical despots; impoverish and disarm.
THE COMING ELECTIONS WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE US SURVIVES MONETARILY IF IT ISN'T ALREADY TOO LATE.
Wait ... the tyrannical despots are going to let us have elections? That's silly of them. They should either have abolished them immediately or else postponed their Secret Evil Plan to make us all miserable until they had done so.
They're really not very good at this whole tyrannical despot thing, are they? Having elections kinda breaks Rule #1.
I'm not particularly impressed by their efforts at disarming the populace, either. Rather than actually taking anyone's guns away, which would to my naive mind seem to be the best and indeed the only way to do so, they seem to have adopted a policy of waiting for them to rust.
It's almost like they're not even trying.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 62 by Buzsaw, posted 10-13-2010 1:55 PM Buzsaw has not replied

  
Buzsaw
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 66 of 423 (586566)
10-13-2010 9:21 PM
Reply to: Message 63 by Dr Adequate
10-13-2010 2:36 PM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
Dr Adequate writes:
That's hardly a recommendation, is it? While one might applaud his consistency, anyone who's been predicting imminent hyperinflation since 1978 has spent thirty-two straight years being wrong.
Nobody, including Ruff, predicted imminent hyperinflation in '78. Where did you get that? He predicted ultimate inflation; big difference.

BUZSAW B 4 U 2 C Y BUZ SAW.
The immeasurable present eternally extends the infinite past and infinitely consumes the eternal future.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 63 by Dr Adequate, posted 10-13-2010 2:36 PM Dr Adequate has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 67 by Dr Adequate, posted 10-14-2010 3:48 AM Buzsaw has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 285 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 67 of 423 (586591)
10-14-2010 3:48 AM
Reply to: Message 66 by Buzsaw
10-13-2010 9:21 PM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
Nobody, including Ruff, predicted imminent hyperinflation in '78. Where did you get that?
From this guy called Howard Ruff.
Here's an excerpt from Ruff's 1978 book:
The United States is about to enter its greatest test period since the Civil War-an inflationary spiral leading to a depression that will be remembered with a shudder for generations, and whoever is President of the United States and presides over the collapse will be the Hoover of the ’70s and ’80′s, [that would have been Ronald Reagan, but that's not quite how we remember him, is it?] and the opposing party will be running against him for the next 50 years.
The likely scenario:
I. In the next recession, WHICH WILL HAPPEN SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER THE PUBLICATION OF THIS BOOK, it will appear that recession and unemployment are threatening the public welfare. Washington will react in panic fashion to attack the problem by cranking up the money and spending machine to stimulate the economy- a bit of the hair of the dog that bit us. This will result in a flood of newly created money, which is the engine of inflation. You will see a runaway inflationary spiral, to be followed by another government panic move - price controls.
Bolding mine, capitals in the original.
And this guy has another direct quote:
It's a tad ironic to look back at Ruff's 1978 statement made in his book in which he said, "...much of the American wealth is an illusion which is being secretly gnawed away and much of it will be completely wiped out in the near future." His prediction, I suppose, came true for anyone who followed his investing advice.
I am aware of your penchant for finding "fulfilled prophecy" in the most unlikely places, but even you must surely concede that this is pretty poor.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 66 by Buzsaw, posted 10-13-2010 9:21 PM Buzsaw has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 70 by Buzsaw, posted 10-14-2010 9:29 AM Dr Adequate has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1025 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 68 of 423 (586595)
10-14-2010 5:29 AM
Reply to: Message 58 by Buzsaw
10-13-2010 9:08 AM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
Price inflation is another matter indeed. Price inflation is the end result and trails monetary inflation. Monetary inflation is now rampant. Gold and silver, being smarter than you and me, are reflecting that by the increase in price and the big rallies we are seeing now. So inflation is here.
Unlike Ruff, I doubt that gold and silver make concious decisions about their own prices. More likely, the increase in their cost represents an increase in demand, presumably linked to all the people going around recommending the purchase of gold to keep your money safe in troubled times.
For example, Agricultural Raw Materials are up 24%, The Mineral Index is up 25%, The Metals Price Index is up 26%, Coffee is up 45%, Barley is up 32%, Oranges are up 35%, Beef is up 23%, Pork is up 68%, Salmon is up 30%, Sugar is up 24%, Wool is up 30%, Cotton is up 40%, Palm oil is up 26%, Hides is up 25%, Rubber is up 62%, Iron Ore up 103%. Those are prices at the wholesale level. ..........
Up compared to what? The price yesterday? The price in October 1975? These figures are meaningless without context.
Let's look at some that he lists. He mentions coffee being up 45%, so I had a look. Coffee is 0.8% down in price since last month, or 33.67% up since last year. He claims that pork is up 68%. All I can find is pork bellies, which are down 3.59% since last month, or up 23.64% since last year.
I did find some numbers which looked higher than his. Cotton is up 24.51% since last month, or 70.55% since last year. The point is that his numbers, without explaining the time period under discussion, don't tell us anything whatsoever. All these figures come from CNN's money pages. which has a nice little graphic which shows where current prices for each commodity are compared to the range of prices over the last year. It ranges from natural gas, at which the current price is the lowest it's been in the last year, to gold and silver, in which the current price is the highest.
Clearly, things aren't as simple as Mr. Ruff would have us believe.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 58 by Buzsaw, posted 10-13-2010 9:08 AM Buzsaw has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 69 by Buzsaw, posted 10-14-2010 9:01 AM caffeine has replied

  
Buzsaw
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 69 of 423 (586609)
10-14-2010 9:01 AM
Reply to: Message 68 by caffeine
10-14-2010 5:29 AM


Re: Ruff On Inflation
Caffeine writes:
Unlike Ruff, I doubt that gold and silver make concious decisions about their own prices. More likely, the increase in their cost represents an increase in demand, presumably linked to all the people going around recommending the purchase of gold to keep your money safe in troubled times.
Caffeine writes:
Your more likely point is consistent with Ruff. Your concious metals spin is bogus. Ruff never said metals make concious decisions.
Up compared to what? The price yesterday? The price in October 1975? These figures are meaningless without context.
Let's look at some that he lists. He mentions coffee being up 45%, so I had a look. Coffee is 0.8% down in price since last month, or 33.67% up since last year. He claims that pork is up 68%. All I can find is pork bellies, which are down 3.59% since last month, or up 23.64% since last year.
I did find some numbers which looked higher than his. Cotton is up 24.51% since last month, or 70.55% since last year. The point is that his numbers, without explaining the time period under discussion, don't tell us anything whatsoever. All these figures come from CNN's money pages. which has a nice little graphic which shows where current prices for each commodity are compared to the range of prices over the last year. It ranges from natural gas, at which the current price is the lowest it's been in the last year, to gold and silver, in which the current price is the highest.
Clearly, things aren't as simple as Mr. Ruff would have us believe.
What? You see figures like 25% in one year as insignificant? Short terms like a month are irrevelant. Obviously Ruff is not talking a month. Percentages like 25 and up in a year or so are very significant and verify Ruff's point that inflation is happening big time since the stimulus effected printing of $$. 25% per year in 4 years = at least 100% and likely much more as the debt multiplies, requiring more $$ expansion and debt.

BUZSAW B 4 U 2 C Y BUZ SAW.
The immeasurable present eternally extends the infinite past and infinitely consumes the eternal future.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 68 by caffeine, posted 10-14-2010 5:29 AM caffeine has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 71 by caffeine, posted 10-14-2010 9:31 AM Buzsaw has not replied

  
Buzsaw
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 70 of 423 (586614)
10-14-2010 9:29 AM
Reply to: Message 67 by Dr Adequate
10-14-2010 3:48 AM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
Dr Adequate writes:
I am aware of your penchant for finding "fulfilled prophecy" in the most unlikely places, but even you must surely concede that this is pretty poor.
Thanks, Dr Adequate. I stand corrected on the time line of Ruff's prediction but not on the accuracy of ultimate fulfillment of his predition that it would happen.
Ruff made his prediction during the Carter years when inflation indeed looked imminent. Do you remember that silver peaked at over $40 and gold at $800 during the Carter years as inflation was heating up?
In the Reagan years, the debt increased because the Democrat Congress which spends money increased spending. Because of the tax easement during the Reagan years business kept inflation at bay, because of the added tax revenue due to business expansion. This kept inflation at bay and interest rates up. In spite of this pause/glich in inflation, Ruff was right in that inflation would happen. Though his timing was off due to fundamentals, it was ultimately going to happen.
I stand by the Biblical prophecies. Watch for the demise of world currencies and the implentation of cashless global monetary system. That's the way it's apparantly emerging as globalist rich and powerful elites like George Soros et al advocate for ever more global authority over the nations.

BUZSAW B 4 U 2 C Y BUZ SAW.
The immeasurable present eternally extends the infinite past and infinitely consumes the eternal future.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 67 by Dr Adequate, posted 10-14-2010 3:48 AM Dr Adequate has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 72 by jar, posted 10-14-2010 10:03 AM Buzsaw has replied
 Message 75 by Dr Adequate, posted 10-14-2010 11:16 AM Buzsaw has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1025 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 71 of 423 (586615)
10-14-2010 9:31 AM
Reply to: Message 69 by Buzsaw
10-14-2010 9:01 AM


Re: Ruff On Inflation
What? You see figures like 25% in one year as insignificant? Short terms like a month are irrevelant. Obviously Ruff is not talking a month. Percentages like 25 and up in a year or so are very significant and verify Ruff's point that inflation is happening big time since the stimulus effected printing of $$. 25% per year in 4 years = at least 100% and likely much more as the debt multiplies, requiring more $$ expansion and debt.
You're missing the point. I assume the 25% you're talking about in a year is for pork bellies. Okay, let's take this as a significant and dramatic figure. Obviously, as you say, a month is far too short a time to judge a commodity's direction seriously. In fact, a year seems far too short to me. Let's look at the two year trend instead.
Well, if we do that, pork prices have risen only 14.6%. That doesn't seem quite as bad, but inflation's still galloping!
To get a clearer idea, let's instead use what I guess must be Ruff's technique, and pick an arbitrary point in the past which gives us a percentage we like the look of. Oh no! Since March 2007 pork belly prices have dropped 7.5%!!! The bottom's falling out of the commodity market!!!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 69 by Buzsaw, posted 10-14-2010 9:01 AM Buzsaw has not replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 72 of 423 (586626)
10-14-2010 10:03 AM
Reply to: Message 70 by Buzsaw
10-14-2010 9:29 AM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
Buz writes:
In the Reagan years, the debt increased because the Democrat Congress which spends money increased spending.
From 1981-1987 the Republicans held the Senate. Plus Reagan still had veto power.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 70 by Buzsaw, posted 10-14-2010 9:29 AM Buzsaw has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 73 by Buzsaw, posted 10-14-2010 11:04 AM jar has replied

  
Buzsaw
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 73 of 423 (586649)
10-14-2010 11:04 AM
Reply to: Message 72 by jar
10-14-2010 10:03 AM


Re: Reagan's Democratic Congress
jar writes:
From 1981-1987 the Republicans held the Senate. Plus Reagan still had veto power.
But the Congress, the house that writes spending bills was Democrat controlled.
The Senate was narrowly Republican, with enough liberal spending Republicans to side with liberal Democrats to pass spending bills written by the Democrat Congress.

BUZSAW B 4 U 2 C Y BUZ SAW.
The immeasurable present eternally extends the infinite past and infinitely consumes the eternal future.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 72 by jar, posted 10-14-2010 10:03 AM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 74 by jar, posted 10-14-2010 11:13 AM Buzsaw has seen this message but not replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 394 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 74 of 423 (586654)
10-14-2010 11:13 AM
Reply to: Message 73 by Buzsaw
10-14-2010 11:04 AM


Re: Reagan's Democratic Congress
LOL.
So once again you admit that you were simply wrong. If Republican also voted for the bills then it is NOT Democrats that did anything. In addition, Reagan still held veto power and did nothing.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 73 by Buzsaw, posted 10-14-2010 11:04 AM Buzsaw has seen this message but not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 285 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 75 of 423 (586655)
10-14-2010 11:16 AM
Reply to: Message 70 by Buzsaw
10-14-2010 9:29 AM


Re: Ruff Explains Inflation Fundamentals
Ruff made his prediction during the Carter years when inflation indeed looked imminent.
Hyperinflation looked imminent to him. But it wasn't.
Do you remember that silver peaked at over $40 and gold at $800 during the Carter years as inflation was heating up?
And that's another thing. Silver's now at ~ $24. But at least gold is up from then, you'll say, at ~ $1377? Only 'til you take inflation into account, when you see that it's lost 47% of its value. Meanwhile the Dow Jones average has gone from 820 to 11,105. Anyone who took Ruff's advice in 1978 would have taken a bath. Anyone who did the opposite of what he said would have made a fortune.
Ruff, of course, avoided the fate of his disciples and made a fortune for himself by selling millions of copies of a book telling everyone that they should get out of the stock market and into bullion. I wonder if he's ever given anyone a refund.
In the Reagan years, the debt increased because the Democrat Congress which spends money increased spending. Because of the tax easement during the Reagan years business kept inflation at bay, because of the added tax revenue due to business expansion. This kept inflation at bay and interest rates up.
Whereas Ruff predicted that whoever was in power they'd preside over such a disastrous hyperinflationary spiral that their name would be a hissing and a byword for the next 50 years.
In spite of this pause/glich in inflation, Ruff was right in that inflation would happen. Though his timing was off due to fundamentals, it was ultimately going to happen.
So despite having being wrong about everything, he was still right?
"His timing was off". Yeah, thirty-two years ago he predicted that hyperinflation was imminent. Today the inflation rate is seven times smaller than it was in 1978 and you're still waiting for him to be right ... any day now.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 70 by Buzsaw, posted 10-14-2010 9:29 AM Buzsaw has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 76 by Buzsaw, posted 10-14-2010 7:39 PM Dr Adequate has replied

  
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