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Author Topic:   Life on other Planets?
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 4 of 160 (594316)
12-03-2010 12:11 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Bolder-dash
12-02-2010 11:32 PM


It seems unlikely that Earth would be the only planet where abiogenesis occurred, but there's no data to support the existence of life on any other planet.
So I don't know.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-02-2010 11:32 PM Bolder-dash has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


(2)
Message 37 of 160 (594460)
12-03-2010 1:38 PM
Reply to: Message 24 by Bolder-dash
12-03-2010 11:01 AM


In fact I have calculated that I am right at least 75-85% of the time during an evenings worth of gambling. I won't go into the specifics here, but the thing is I always win. How can this be? Is it luck?
Well, it depends what you play. There are a couple casino games where you can use skill to beat the house. Poker, obviously, you can beat the house because you don't play against the house. Blackjack, you can use progressive betting strategies when the shoe is "hot", or contains a disproportionate number of cards that will cause the dealer to bust. It's possible to do pretty well at craps if you can recognize the tables with advantageous rules and use a betting system to minimize your buy-in losses and maximize your rewards.
But remember - you play against the house, but the house doesn't play against you. The house plays against everyone. Statistics describes random behavior in the aggregate, not in the specific, and in that context it is very reliable indeed. But statistics isn't a way to predict discreet outcomes at 100% certainty, it's a way to predict the distribution of aggregate outcomes. (A 60% chance of rain doesn't tell you that it will or won't rain today.) It may very well be the case that for every dollar you spend at the casino, you walk out with a dollar and ninety cents. But in aggregate, for every dollar that everybody is spending at the casino, they get eighty cents or so back. Your wins are basically a wealth transfer from the rest of the crowd to you, with the casino taking an enormous percentage for the privilege.
No individual example can prove statistics wrong, because statistics doesn't describe individual outcomes, it describes outcomes in aggregate. A .300 batting average doesn't tell you whether or not a batter will hit a home run on his next up at plate. It tells you how many home runs he'll hit in his next 100 at-bats.
So what are we to believe, what numbers can show or what empirical tests show (me).
You're not an empirical test, you're a single anecdote.
The point is that when stats say one thing and real life information says another, who do you believe?
Stats, because the difference proves your information is wrong.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 24 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 11:01 AM Bolder-dash has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 43 of 160 (594533)
12-03-2010 8:28 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by Bolder-dash
12-03-2010 7:54 PM


Well, first off most casino don't really operate on the principal that they will make their little 2 percent or from percent from the odds.
No, they make about 20% or so.
You can calculate their take from the odds, by calculating the expected return value. You'll find that every casino runs about .75 to .8 expected value - that is, for every dollar a player bets in a game, they should expect to get about eighty cents back.
Again, this is aggregate, not specific. Some people are going to lose all their money, some people are going to win. Overall, the casino keeps twenty cents out of every dollar that gets played.
They are not in the business of odds, they are in the business of psychology.
No, 100% wrong. Casinos are in the odds business. They're in the business of aggregating dollars. You have the experience of putting some money on black and letting it ride. The casino has the experience of taking $100,000 in bets every hour and only having to pay out $80,000 in wins. That's $20,000 an hour for doing nothing more than keeping the lights on.
There's literally nothing "gambling" about what the casino is doing. Running a casino is a lot like pouring a crowd through a sieve where they pass through but their money stays behind.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 40 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 7:54 PM Bolder-dash has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 46 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 8:34 PM crashfrog has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


(1)
Message 47 of 160 (594537)
12-03-2010 8:41 PM
Reply to: Message 44 by Bolder-dash
12-03-2010 8:30 PM


Now how can that be, that 100% of the people here say yes, its either likely, or they believe it is true-and yet those exact same people absolutely scoff at the notion that there is a God.
Life in the universe is manifest. You can look around and see it. If it's here it stands to reason that it's probably somewhere else.
God is not manifest. There is no place you can go where you can see any evidence of God whatsoever. None at all. So it doesn't make sense to suggest that there's a God anywhere.
"The existence of life" and the "existence of God" are two completely different positions.
One could very easily argue that there is much more evidence for a God than there is for life on other planets, let's be honest here.
No, there's no evidence for any God.
. We do have laws of nature, and physical properties and physical constants in the world-so these had to come from some where.
Why did they have to come from anywhere? Where in the universe can you go where there's no laws of nature or physical properties? Why do you think that these things could ever be absent?
You like Star Trek, you are a bunch of star gazing tech geeks
Oh, shit, you really got us! I don't think I've been this burned since junior high AV club.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 44 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 8:30 PM Bolder-dash has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 48 of 160 (594538)
12-03-2010 8:41 PM
Reply to: Message 46 by Bolder-dash
12-03-2010 8:34 PM


You don't know much about casinos.
Clearly, I know far more than you.
You know, since I can do math.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 46 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 8:34 PM Bolder-dash has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 49 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 8:50 PM crashfrog has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 50 of 160 (594540)
12-03-2010 8:53 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by Bolder-dash
12-03-2010 8:50 PM


Yes, and you clearly no nothing about psychology.
Psychology only makes you money in advertising. Keeping people in the casino and playing games doesn't make them any money unless the casino makes money on the games.
Do you understand that? That if the casino pays out more in wins than they take in in losses, they lose money? I can't believe even you are dumb enough to think that casinos are in business to lose money.
The odds come first. You can even check! Next time you're in the casino, do the math. You'll see that most games are getting you less than 80 cents to the dollar. That difference is the casino's profit. Where else would it come from?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 8:50 PM Bolder-dash has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 66 by Theodoric, posted 12-03-2010 10:19 PM crashfrog has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 54 of 160 (594550)
12-03-2010 9:19 PM
Reply to: Message 53 by Bolder-dash
12-03-2010 9:17 PM


!00% of the regular evolutionist contributors to this website believe there is life on other planets with exactly ZERO evidence for such a belief.
That's certainly not what any of them said in this thread. Did you even bother reading any of the responses? Clearly not.
Or you can attempt the impossible logic of crashfrog 'why did the order have to come from anywhere, and life is ever present throughout the universe", hogwash.
If it's hogwash, refute it. You don't know how to, though, do you?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 53 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 9:17 PM Bolder-dash has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 56 of 160 (594552)
12-03-2010 9:22 PM
Reply to: Message 55 by Bolder-dash
12-03-2010 9:21 PM


Re: Laughable?
There is evidence for life in one form, physical, so that is evidence that there could be life in other forms, meta-physical.
But there's no evidence of anything that is metaphysical. So physical life isn't evidence for metaphysical life; it's only evidence for physical life in other locations.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 55 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 9:21 PM Bolder-dash has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 64 of 160 (594566)
12-03-2010 10:14 PM
Reply to: Message 60 by Bolder-dash
12-03-2010 9:55 PM


Re: Huh?????
Life on Earth is evidence for life on other planets..get the fuck...wait, what?!
Well, yeah, it is. Life on other planets would be on planets that are like Earth.
And, gosh, here's an Earth-like planet right here, crammed with life!
Do you see the difference? Metaphysical life would be completely different than any physical life, and its existence would be contingent on factors that are utterly irrelevant to physical life. (Metaphysical anything would have to exist, for instance.) But life on other planets would be on planets very similar to Earth, and it would be very similar to the life that is on Earth. So if life on other planets exists, it will be contingent on factors that life on Earth is also contingent on.
And what a surprise, there's life on Earth! That proves those contingent factors are present. Thus, it lends support to the notion of life on other planets.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 60 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 9:55 PM Bolder-dash has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


(2)
Message 68 of 160 (594575)
12-03-2010 10:32 PM
Reply to: Message 66 by Theodoric
12-03-2010 10:19 PM


Do you think he can understand how casinos make money on sports betting?
I don't think Bolder-Dash could understand how to pour piss from a boot with a diagram on the heel.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 66 by Theodoric, posted 12-03-2010 10:19 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 70 of 160 (594577)
12-03-2010 10:44 PM
Reply to: Message 69 by Bolder-dash
12-03-2010 10:36 PM


Re: Huh?????
From our observable experience we know that order is more likely when something is intelligently crafted, whereas chaos is more likely when there is no intelligence at work.
I this is where you go off the rails. Order emerges from the expenditure of energy, not the expenditure of intelligence.
Many phenomena in the universe are self-ordering. Crystals, for instance, form with no intelligent input whatsoever.
God is the name people give to an intelligent source
What, any intelligence? So, I'm God? You're God? (Well, maybe not you.)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 69 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 10:36 PM Bolder-dash has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 72 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 11:02 PM crashfrog has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 77 of 160 (594592)
12-03-2010 11:19 PM
Reply to: Message 72 by Bolder-dash
12-03-2010 11:02 PM


Re: Huh?????
First, we are talking about likelihood, get it?
You mean probability? Aren't you the one who thinks probability is just a liberal conspiracy?
I'm curious how you're arriving at these likelihoods. Show your math. You know, math? Numbers? Those things above the letters on your keyboard. I assume that somebody at some point must have had the patience to show you how they work together? Think back - you know, all those times you repeated the fifth grade.
this does nothing to change the bulk of our experience being that order is more likely from intelligence.
Showing examples of order that does not derive from intelligence proves that order does not imply intelligence. Just keep thinking about it, you'll get it.
I find it very unsatisfying to converse with someone that you are guaranteed to not learn or gain any benefit from whatsoever.
You actually stand to learn a lot from me, and from the other posters here. The problem is that you're so stupid, you think you already know everything. Nobody here is an obstacle to your intellectual development but you. The only one standing in the way of your learning is you.
And because we're all better people than you, we'll still be here when you finally realize how much you have to learn. We'll be here to help you, just as soon as you're ready to ask.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 72 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-03-2010 11:02 PM Bolder-dash has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


(2)
Message 98 of 160 (594673)
12-04-2010 2:19 PM
Reply to: Message 94 by Bolder-dash
12-04-2010 1:52 PM


Bolder is a Liar
It is simply a matter of editorial comment and response that it is perhaps informationally of interest that evolutionists overwhelmingly (overwhelmingly being used in the sense of virtually without exception) believe in the existence of something for which they have zero empirical evidence
Maybe they do and maybe they don't. Certainly the responses in this thread are not statements of unquestioning, blind faith; but rather highly qualified and universally marked by a reticence to take a position supported by no evidence.
I mean, we're not dumb, Bolder. Everybody knew what you were going to do as soon as you opened the thread. Here's a representative sample of the replies:
How many people here believe there is life on other planets?
quote:
Probably
quote:
I don't know.
quote:
Life on other planets is probable, but there is little evidence either way. I'll wait until there is.
quote:
I would need more data.
quote:
No.
quote:
Whether or not there is life elsewhere in the universe is something that may never be known for sure
quote:
... witouth evidence [of] actual life found there i cant give a clear yes.
quote:
No evidence to make that claim
quote:
I don't have physical verifiable reproducible evidence to support such a statement.
Just to be clear, these are the replies from which you're concluding that evolutionists "overwhelmingly, as in virtually without exception" have absolute blind faith in the existence of extraterrestrial life.
Fess up, Bolder. You were going to accuse us of having blind faith anyway, no matter what we wrote. Weren't you? As for "blind faith" - if the statements I quoted had been made in the context of belief in God, I think you would have accused each and every utterer as being an atheist or at least an agnostic. Nobody would construe "I would need more data", for instance, as a profession of unquestioning faith in God.
The only thing that makes you look stupider than trying to set up a really obvious trap is when your quarry spots the trap and you try to spring it anyway. You didn't even read our replies, did you? You just assumed that we were all Star Trek nerds who would "overwhelmingly, virtually without any exception" have utter confidence in life on other planets.
Man, you truly are a moron.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 94 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-04-2010 1:52 PM Bolder-dash has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 107 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-05-2010 5:00 AM crashfrog has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 124 of 160 (594848)
12-05-2010 12:36 PM
Reply to: Message 107 by Bolder-dash
12-05-2010 5:00 AM


Re: Bolder is a Liar
Did you stutter or have a brain seizure when you where editing out your quotes?
No, but I'm sure you did as you read it.
I think you are so utterly dishonest and so void of ethical standards whatsoever that you would virtually fabricate information just so you could seem more believable.
Fabricate information?
Did people type those words, or didn't they, Bolder? You asserted that "overwhelmingly, as in virtually without exception" that every evolutionists who replied in this thread expressed completely unqualified, total support for the notion of extra-terrestrial life.
Yet, in fact, not a single participant did so. There's not a single post in this thread that expresses that kind of support. Can you find even a single one? No, of course not.
Because you're a liar.
I am just gong to tell you something right now so you understand it very clear-I think you are a piece of shit.
I'm quite certain that you do.
Everyone came out with a minimum affirmation of probably.
Well, wait now. "Minimum affirmation of probably"? That's a far cry from the blind, unquestioning faith you repeatedly asserted earlier. So now you admit you were lying.
Now you have the gall to say it was some kind of trap I played? What the heck does that even mean?
It means exactly what I said it means - that no matter what evolutionists told you, you were going to accuse us all of "overwhelmingly, as in virtually without exception" having "blind faith in life on other planets, but not in God." I mean, never mind how many of the evolutionists here actually already believe in God - we're not uniformly atheists, not by any means - that was the accusation you were going to make, regardless. As you've now admitted:
quote:
I don't think the answers would have been different from anyone at all
Translation - you were going to make the exact same dishonest attack no matter what anybody said.
You're a liar, Bolder, and you've just admitted it. And you'll get away with it, because of the special rules for creationists. Well, that's fine - everybody knows what you are. Already knew, in fact. It's not like this is the first time you've utterly failed to demonstrate any degree of honesty, after all.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 107 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-05-2010 5:00 AM Bolder-dash has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1492 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 125 of 160 (594849)
12-05-2010 12:43 PM
Reply to: Message 110 by Bolder-dash
12-05-2010 7:58 AM


Re: Bolder is a Liar
Crashfrog clearly distorted the facts by butchering up quotes to make it look as if some evolutionists actually said they don't have a believe in alien life. that is a lie, and now you are repeating it.
A lie? Weren't you paying attention to the replies? Coyote came right out and told you that he didn't have a belief in extraterrestrial life:
Belief?
As Heinlein noted, "Belief gets in the way of learning."
Fess up, Bolder. You were always going to make the same accusation no matter what anybody told you. Did you even read any of the replies?
he conditions are right for it, aren't they?
In fact, you git, the conditions are precisely wrong for it - due to all the life that's already here. The inorganic high-energy molecules necessary for abiogenesis have long since been scavenged - ah, hell, why even bother? I doubt you have the mental capacity to understand even a single word in that sentence. I'd have more success explaining the conditions of the pre-biotic Earth and the RNA world to my cat than I would trying to explain it to you. Has there ever been even a single time you started a discussion to try to learn something, Bolder-Dash? How come that's something nobody can find any evidence of?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 110 by Bolder-dash, posted 12-05-2010 7:58 AM Bolder-dash has not replied

  
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