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Author | Topic: The Giant Pool Of Money. Implications | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Buzsaw Inactive Member
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Dr Adequate writes: "His timing was off". Yeah, thirty-two years ago he predicted that hyperinflation was imminent. Today the inflation rate is seven times smaller than it was in 1978 and you're still waiting for him to be right ... any day now. Folks who bought and kept silver at $3; gold at $250 back then and kept on buying as prices rose are retiring on their holdings today; a safe retirement still appreciating as the $$ tumbles, thanks to astute people like Ruff and Gary North who knew and told inflation would come but did not know when as viewed in retrospect. Folks with $$ savings accounts and other $$ assets, on the other hand are moaning as they watch their retirement $$ assets evaporate. BUZSAW B 4 U 2 C Y BUZ SAW. The immeasurable present eternally extends the infinite past and infinitely consumes the eternal future.
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Dr Adequate Member (Idle past 304 days) Posts: 16113 Joined: |
Folks who bought and kept silver at $3; gold at $250 back then ... Weren't they at $40 and $800 back then when you were trying to make a different point?
... and kept on buying as prices rose are retiring on their holdings today ... Er, no. Assuming you were right about $40 and $800, the people who kept on buying while prices rose lost (in real terms) half their investment or more (depending on whether they were more heavily into gold or silver). It's meant to be "buy low, sell high" not the other way round. If you could show me that Ruff at some point advised people to stop buying bullion because it was becoming overpriced, then I shall listen more carefully to your praise of his astuteness.
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Buzsaw Inactive Member
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Dr Adequate writes: Er, no. Assuming you were right about $40 and $800, the people who kept on buying while prices rose lost (in real terms) half their investment or more (depending on whether they were more heavily into gold or silver). It's meant to be "buy low, sell high" not the other way round. If you could show me that Ruff at some point advised people to stop buying bullion because it was becoming overpriced, then I shall listen more carefully to your praise of his astuteness. Those fluky highs were very short lived. I would assume that most would have enough sense to back off when they rose to extremes rapidly. By and large except for a very short period, silver could be bought for $10 or less and gold for $300 or less Likely Ruff was advising his constituency against buying at extreme highs.
Nelson Bunker Hunt and his brother caused silver to go so high relative to gold.
Beginning in the early 1970s, Hunt and his brother William Herbert Hunt began accumulating large amounts of silver. By 1979, they had nearly cornered the global market.[6] In the last nine months of 1979, the brothers profited by an estimated $2 billion to $4 billion in silver speculation, with estimated silver holdings of 100 million ounces.[7] During the Hunt brothers' accumulation of the precious metal, prices of silver futures contracts and silver bullion during 1979 and 1980 rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to $50 an ounce in January 1980. Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an ounce two months later. The largest single day drop in the price of silver occurred on Silver Thursday.[1] Hunt filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 of the Federal Bankruptcy Code in September 1988, largely due to lawsuits incurred as a result of his silver speculation.[1] Edited by Buzsaw, : Add link BUZSAW B 4 U 2 C Y BUZ SAW. The immeasurable present eternally extends the infinite past and infinitely consumes the eternal future.
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Dr Adequate Member (Idle past 304 days) Posts: 16113 Joined: |
Those fluky highs were very short lived. But in your message #70, you were citing them as proof that Ruff was right back in the late 70s. You wrote:
Buz writes: Do you remember that silver peaked at over $40 and gold at $800 during the Carter years as inflation was heating up? And now you say that these figures were "fluky" and "short-lived" and so should be discounted. You can't have your cake and eat it.
Likely Ruff was advising his constituency against buying at extreme highs. Where's the evidence for this? I wrote:
Dr A writes: If you could show me that Ruff at some point advised people to stop buying bullion because it was becoming overpriced, then I shall listen more carefully to your praise of his astuteness. But you seem to be doing it the other way round --- from the assumption that Ruff was astute, you conclude that he must have told people to stop investing in bullion. So when did he do so? Can you quote him? If he had done so, don't you think he'd be quoting it himself?
During the Hunt brothers' accumulation of the precious metal, prices of silver futures contracts and silver bullion during 1979 and 1980 rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to $50 an ounce in January 1980. And all that time, Ruff was advising people to get into silver, which is now at $24/oz after inflation. So what did he know? Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given. Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given. Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.
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Buzsaw Inactive Member
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Dr. A writes: And all that time, Ruff was advising people to get into silver. So what did he know? So, speaking of proof, where's your proof of that blind assertion? You said I should prove something that I said was likely the case; not a blind assertion, but a likelihood. I said that because I simply don't have the time to research it. I'm applying common sense. You're discounting liklihoods, assuming that Ruff and his constituents were naieve imbeciles lacking the good sense to act prudently. BUZSAW B 4 U 2 C Y BUZ SAW. The immeasurable present eternally extends the infinite past and infinitely consumes the eternal future.
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jar Member (Idle past 414 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
You're discounting liklihoods, assuming that Ruff and his constituents were naieve imbeciles lacking the good sense to act prudently. No one is saying that Ruff is an imbecile. He is in the business of selling what he writes. Far from being an imbecile it looks like he has very astutely defined his potential market demographic. Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!
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Dr Adequate Member (Idle past 304 days) Posts: 16113 Joined: |
So, speaking of proof, where's your proof of that blind assertion? First, his book was still on sale at the time. Secondly, if he had told his followers to get out of bullion before it got the bubble burst, surely he'd be trumpeting this success somewhere.
You said I should prove something that I said was likely the case; not a blind assertion, but a likelihood. I said that because I simply don't have the time to research it. I'm applying common sense. You're discounting liklihoods, assuming that Ruff and his constituents were naieve imbeciles lacking the good sense to act prudently. But all the hard evidence we have is that Ruff has a long proud record of being (a) wrong (b) a goldbug. I am going on the likelihood. When and if you produce evidence that, at the right time, he went around telling people: "You should now stop buying bullion ... oh, and I was wrong about the whole hyperinflation thing", then I shall rethink. As for his "constituents", it was you yourself who spoke of people who "kept on buying while prices rose".
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Phat Member Posts: 18298 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.1 |
Percy writes: There are other This American Life episodes focused on the financial crisis, usually with Alex Bloomberg as the primary reporter, and I'm sure there have been others since September, 2009, but I'm a bit behind in my podcasts.--Percy This new show, made in January 2011, explains the way the Federal Reserve created money out of thin air. I used to think that only nuts like Alex Jones believed this stuff, but This American Life is quite reputable. Edited by Phat, : fixed link
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9140 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.3 |
And this is news to you? Do you not have any idea how the economy works?
Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
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Phat Member Posts: 18298 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.1 |
I was told that its silly to think of what the conspiracy theorists say about the dollar being at risk of being stripped of its role as a global reserve currency, but, also, others have told me that indeed this is true. This is all news to me.
Is there a possibility that life in the U.S. may get even worse than it is now?
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Jon Inactive Member |
Is there a possibility that life in the U.S. may get even worse than it is now? It's not just a possibility. But you knew that already. Edited by Jon, : clarity Love your enemies!
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jar Member (Idle past 414 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
Phat writes: I was told that its silly to think of what the conspiracy theorists say about the dollar being at risk of being stripped of its role as a global reserve currency, but, also, others have told me that indeed this is true. This is all news to me. Is there a possibility that life in the U.S. may get even worse than it is now? HUH? What value is added by being a Global Reserve Currency and do you even know what that means? Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!
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crashfrog Member (Idle past 1487 days) Posts: 19762 From: Silver Spring, MD Joined: |
I was told that its silly to think of what the conspiracy theorists say about the dollar being at risk of being stripped of its role as a global reserve currency, but, also, others have told me that indeed this is true. Just printing new money doesn't mean that the currency is debased. Increasing the money supply is only inflationary when production is at its capacity. In an economy with 9% employment or more, factories lying idle, goods languishing in warehouses, printing money stimulates demand and puts people back to work. Inflation happens when there's more money to chase the same amount of goods and services. But when people are unemployed, you can increase the amount of goods and services and prevent inflation. Currently inflation is at less than 2%, despite several decades of deficit spending and three years of economic stimulus.
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Phat Member Posts: 18298 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 1.1 |
Jon writes: Is there a possibility that life in the U.S. may get even worse than it is now? It's not just a possibility. But you knew that already. Just another opportunity for me to gripe! We Americans need to unify before the foreign people take all of the good jobs and money.
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9140 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.3
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We Americans need to unify before the foreign people take all of the good jobs and money.
What do you want us to do? Bomb them back to the stone age? It isn't the fuzzy foreigners that are the problem, it is the lack of regulation of corporate America. Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
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