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Author Topic:   Testing Theories of Origins
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 81 of 143 (694509)
03-25-2013 9:07 AM
Reply to: Message 63 by designtheorist
03-25-2013 7:52 AM


Re: The Major Tests
Did you happen to watch the Ben Stein documentary "Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed?"
You know that "documentary" is full of lies, right?
Evidence for people getting in trouble because of Darwinian orthodoxy is pretty common. Some people are even upset that Koonin is claiming that Darwin's Last Universal Common Ancestor (LUCA) idea is false. Koonin says genomics tell us there is no "tree of life" so we should be talking about a "forest of life." Richard Dawkins is not at all happy these ideas were published in the literature. I saw a video clip of a panel talking about science and Craig Ventner expressed his support for this view and Dawkins was just shocked. Ventner would not even discuss the evidence with him. I think Koonin and Ventner's careers are safe, but you can see the emotionalism that erupts when anyone doubts a tenet of Darwinian faith, even when there is strong evidence against it.
Since I haven't seen the clip, I don't know what you're misrepresenting.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 63 by designtheorist, posted 03-25-2013 7:52 AM designtheorist has replied

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 Message 86 by designtheorist, posted 03-25-2013 9:24 AM Dr Adequate has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 84 of 143 (694512)
03-25-2013 9:16 AM
Reply to: Message 80 by designtheorist
03-25-2013 9:05 AM


Re: Clarification
I will try to develop a more complete explanation of the two major tests and how they are to be applied. For now, it is important to realize that explanatory power is about explaining the data we currently have and predictive success is about making predictions about the data we will be discovering. Einstein's theory was successful because it made predictions that were later confirmed by observation. If a prediction is not related to the future, then it is not a prediction.
Well, if you wish to change the vocabulary of the scientific method, then I would say that "prediction", in your sense, is also not necessarily a good test of a theory, and at best is only a subset of the ways in which a theory can be justified.
I instead propose the following comprehensive test: the comparison of the logical consequences of a theory to the data presently available to us.
I would also wonder why it is necessary for you to alter and/or obfuscate the scientific method, but I think that will become clear when you start actually discussing Ross's stuff. Really, if you can't play the game by the same rules as everyone else, this suggests that the cards in your hand aren't that good.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 80 by designtheorist, posted 03-25-2013 9:05 AM designtheorist has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 102 of 143 (694558)
03-25-2013 3:38 PM
Reply to: Message 94 by Percy
03-25-2013 11:09 AM


Re: Clarification
By your definition string theory is making successful predictions every time it comes up with answers consistent with the standard model.
Well, I'd say it is.
But perhaps we are spending too much time choosing our vocabulary. I think we can agree that the proper way to test a theory is the comparison of its logical consequences to the data; and that the historical order of the invention of the theory and the observation of the data is irrelevant to the goodness of the theory.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 311 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 105 of 143 (694564)
03-25-2013 4:26 PM
Reply to: Message 83 by designtheorist
03-25-2013 9:14 AM


Re: Parsimony
I agree that fewer assumptions are better than more. Can you think of any examples were this was used as a test in evaluating models or theories?
It is a criterion which in science more often prevents blunders than corrects them, because scientists generally aren't fools. (It could be applied with profit by pseudoscientists who are fools, but being fools they're not going to.) For example, the principle of parsimony would have prevented a chemist from going around saying: "I've discovered a new element with exactly the same properties as tungsten" --- but it would, in fact, have prevented him from doing so; the situation would never have developed so far that other people were obliged to use the principle of parsimony as a critique of his claim.

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 Message 83 by designtheorist, posted 03-25-2013 9:14 AM designtheorist has not replied

  
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