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Author Topic:   Why Evolution works inside Ecologies
herebedragons
Member (Idle past 857 days)
Posts: 1517
From: Michigan
Joined: 11-22-2009


(1)
Message 8 of 37 (720288)
02-21-2014 11:24 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by RAZD
02-21-2014 10:04 AM


Re: exciting times
Speciation will occur: this is a prediction based on the change in ecology that is underway ... we (if we survive) will likely observe punctuated evolution ...
The concern that most ecologists / biologist have regarding this is the rate at which the change is occurring. While a few may survive and even thrive as a result of climate change, the majority of species will probably not be able adapt fast enough to keep up with the current rate of climate change.
The ones that will do the best at adapting are those that have very generalist diets and habits. Those with more specialized habits are unlikely to make it. These extinctions will then open up new niches that those that survive can then exploit, the problem will be that those that are able to take advantage of these new niches will probably be non-native species. One of the areas I have been studying is invasive species. They are already having an enormous impact on native vegetation and community structure. The rate of that impact is clearly accelerating.
I expect we will see a massive, global restructuring of our flora and fauna in the next couple decades. Our world is going to look radically different in the very near future.
HBD

Whoever calls me ignorant shares my own opinion. Sorrowfully and tacitly I recognize my ignorance, when I consider how much I lack of what my mind in its craving for knowledge is sighing for... I console myself with the consideration that this belongs to our common nature. - Francesco Petrarca
"Nothing is easier than to persuade people who want to be persuaded and already believe." - another Petrarca gem.
Ignorance is a most formidable opponent rivaled only by arrogance; but when the two join forces, one is all but invincible.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by RAZD, posted 02-21-2014 10:04 AM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by RAZD, posted 02-21-2014 4:49 PM herebedragons has replied

  
herebedragons
Member (Idle past 857 days)
Posts: 1517
From: Michigan
Joined: 11-22-2009


Message 13 of 37 (720364)
02-22-2014 8:50 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by RAZD
02-21-2014 4:49 PM


Re: extinction event?
it could well be linked to lengths of generations, favoring shorter reproductive cycles.
Ah yes, I really hadn't thought about the connection of generation time, good point. In fact, as I considered this I realized how similar the global warming issue is to the invasive species issue.
These are some of the traits that can help predict whether a plant will be invasive (animals are similar, but I haven't studied invasive animals as extensively as I have plants)
- high reproductive rate
- short time to reproductive age
- rapid growth rate
- generalized niche requirements; ability to exploit new niches
- release from predation
- ability to extend growing season beyond natives
- produce novel interspecific competitive systems (ie. allelopathy, dense vegetative canopies)
- significant phenotypic variation
Invasion can also be thought of as a special case of succession, which usually proceeds in a slow, orderly and somewhat predictable fashion. However, disturbances change community structure in such a way as to disrupt this natural succession, which creates new niche opportunities that native plants often can't readily exploit. Also note that disruption of natural disturbance regimes is also a type of disturbance; suppression of fire, flooding, or ... freeze / thaw cycles can alter community structure. Global warming can definitely be thought of as a disturbance.
So my realization here is how similar global warming is to invasive species ecology and the same characteristics that predict invasiveness will be selected for by climate change. So what we are likely to see is an extinction event much like the K-T extinction where whole groups of organisms are eliminated and only a small subset make it through.
Another thing I realized ... I hate invasive species. When I see garlic mustard or spotted knapweed or common buckthorn growing along the road, I just want to stop and yank it all out. But I am wondering now if maybe its a good thing ... it may be the only plants we have left in 20 years . Maybe kudzu will make it up here to Michigan (no maybe about it) and I won't have to mow my lawn or paint my house anymore; I can just let kudzu cover it all
Quite unsettling
HBD

Whoever calls me ignorant shares my own opinion. Sorrowfully and tacitly I recognize my ignorance, when I consider how much I lack of what my mind in its craving for knowledge is sighing for... I console myself with the consideration that this belongs to our common nature. - Francesco Petrarca
"Nothing is easier than to persuade people who want to be persuaded and already believe." - another Petrarca gem.
Ignorance is a most formidable opponent rivaled only by arrogance; but when the two join forces, one is all but invincible.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by RAZD, posted 02-21-2014 4:49 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by RAZD, posted 02-22-2014 11:57 AM herebedragons has not replied

  
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