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Author Topic:   Three Curtains
Capt Stormfield
Member (Idle past 455 days)
Posts: 428
From: Vancouver Island
Joined: 01-17-2009


Message 12 of 48 (729300)
06-08-2014 1:54 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by Modulous
06-07-2014 2:36 PM


Re: Probability Changes Based on Data
It doesn't seem like this is a probability question so much as it is about the rules that govern the game show host. If he knows where the car is, and also gets to choose which curtain to open, then there is the potential that he is communicating with you. So, interesting question about game show tactics, but not about probability.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Modulous, posted 06-07-2014 2:36 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by ringo, posted 06-08-2014 2:27 PM Capt Stormfield has not replied
 Message 15 by Modulous, posted 06-08-2014 2:34 PM Capt Stormfield has replied
 Message 18 by PaulK, posted 06-08-2014 2:57 PM Capt Stormfield has not replied

  
Capt Stormfield
Member (Idle past 455 days)
Posts: 428
From: Vancouver Island
Joined: 01-17-2009


Message 14 of 48 (729304)
06-08-2014 2:28 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by Dr Adequate
06-07-2014 2:58 PM


Re: Probability Changes Based on Data
With three curtains, the reasoning is just the same...
And equally flawed. The original question is meaningless unless we know the structure of the game. If the host has knowledge, and gets to use it in the choice of which unchosen curtains are opened, then the question is just about Monte Hall's likely behavior, not about probability.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by Dr Adequate, posted 06-07-2014 2:58 PM Dr Adequate has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by Capt Stormfield, posted 06-08-2014 2:40 PM Capt Stormfield has not replied
 Message 17 by Dr Adequate, posted 06-08-2014 2:53 PM Capt Stormfield has not replied

  
Capt Stormfield
Member (Idle past 455 days)
Posts: 428
From: Vancouver Island
Joined: 01-17-2009


Message 16 of 48 (729306)
06-08-2014 2:40 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by Capt Stormfield
06-08-2014 2:28 PM


Re: Probability Changes Based on Data
If the rules allow the host to choose, then we introduce factors which are not knowable to us. Are they over budget this week? Has the show run out of time? All fascinating gaming I'm sure, but not amenable to probabilistic analysis.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by Capt Stormfield, posted 06-08-2014 2:28 PM Capt Stormfield has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 20 by Modulous, posted 06-08-2014 3:01 PM Capt Stormfield has not replied

  
Capt Stormfield
Member (Idle past 455 days)
Posts: 428
From: Vancouver Island
Joined: 01-17-2009


Message 19 of 48 (729309)
06-08-2014 2:58 PM
Reply to: Message 15 by Modulous
06-08-2014 2:34 PM


Re: Probability Changes Based on Data
You are correct. I had not internalized the concept that the host was not randomly choosing which curtain to open.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by Modulous, posted 06-08-2014 2:34 PM Modulous has seen this message but not replied

  
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