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Author Topic:   Deflation-gate
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 121 of 466 (757920)
05-16-2015 9:10 AM
Reply to: Message 120 by Percy
05-16-2015 8:07 AM


Re: The Wells Report and Ball Pressure
Good grief, now you're accusing me of lying about what I really meant?
Wrong Percy.
I was very careful not to make that accusation. In fact, I corrected a sentence that made that accusation because I accept that you did not mean what you wrote.
Your statement was that "You [Nonukes] thought I [Percy] said". Well you did say exactly what I accused you of saying. I accept that you did not mean it, but the words you have cannot reasonably be interpreted as you meant them. But I don't accept any role in your error.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
The only thing I suggest is that genes died as a result of all those people and animals dying in the Flood, whose traits were lost to the species and therefore the alleles for those traits, so the genes just died and remain in the genome as corpses. Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 120 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 8:07 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 123 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 9:40 AM NoNukes has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 122 of 466 (757921)
05-16-2015 9:28 AM


NFL to Change Ball Preparation Rules
It was today reported by the AP that the NFL plans to change how footballs are handled before games. This is a welcome move, but if it only deals with insuring that properly inflated footballs make it to the field then it is not enough. If proper football pressure is important then the NFL must also address the issue of temperature. We are now aware that a properly inflated football at 12.5 psi at 72°F will eventually drop to around 9 psi when delivered to field at 10°F on a cold Monday night in Foxboro in January. And that the same football will increase in pressure to around 14.5 psi when delivered to a field at 100°F on a hot Sunday afternoon in Miami in September.
This means that the footballs cannot be inflated in the referees locker room as is the current practice. They must be inflated on the field at playing temperature.
Extreme temperature changes can occur during games. It doesn't happen a lot, but it does happen, so I suggest that when the temperature changes by more than 20°F (should cause a change of around 1.1 psi) that the ball inflation routine be repeated.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 134 by NoNukes, posted 05-17-2015 2:44 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 123 of 466 (757922)
05-16-2015 9:40 AM
Reply to: Message 121 by NoNukes
05-16-2015 9:10 AM


Re: The Wells Report and Ball Pressure
NoNukes writes:
Good grief, now you're accusing me of lying about what I really meant?
Wrong Percy.
I was very careful not to make that accusation.
All you succeeded in doing was avoiding the word - you still made the accusation.
That you don't like my position is obvious, but the mere fact that I hold it seems to offend you in some way, so could I suggest that you just focus on the topic?
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 121 by NoNukes, posted 05-16-2015 9:10 AM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 125 by NoNukes, posted 05-16-2015 9:46 AM Percy has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 124 of 466 (757923)
05-16-2015 9:40 AM
Reply to: Message 119 by Percy
05-16-2015 7:59 AM


Re: The Wells Report and Ball Pressure
It's a plausible scenario for motivation, but not one that is consistent with the Ideal Gas Law, which I did mention at the end of that paragraph. Balls don't warm up instantly.
I disagree. The details of my scenario are wrong because they don't match what we know about initial pressure of the balls. I made my numbers up. But as for the ideal gas law, you simply don't have the information needed to apply that law accurately.
Your Ideal Gas Law scenario makes a bunch of assumptions that you cannot verify. True, balls don't warm up instantly, but we don't know how long they were given to warm up. All of the measured balls might well have been at equilibrium or close to it by the time the first Patriot ball was measured. It is your assumption that the time difference between measuring the Patriot's balls and the Colts balls had a significant effect.
Well, in my view, first sufficient evidence of a violation is needed, and they don't have that.
A violation is any tampering with the football regardless of magnitude. It does not even matter if the balls were still in spec after a slight deflation. Your position is contrary to that. Further, a violation occurred before the footballs even got to the bathroom. McNally had no business even removing them from the referee's locker room at the point where they did so.
Finally every bit of evidence is indirect and it all counts. You've admitted only looking at ball pressures. That's not enough.
As I said earlier, the standard of "preponderance of the evidence" is just an excuse for forming an opinion based upon insufficient evidence.
Preponderance of the evidence (or more likely than not) also happens to be exactly the same standard that gets used daily in civil trials throughout the US. It is the same standard used to find OJ responsible for the wrongful death of his wife. So no it is not an excuse for anything. The choice to use the standard was made well before this incident.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
The only thing I suggest is that genes died as a result of all those people and animals dying in the Flood, whose traits were lost to the species and therefore the alleles for those traits, so the genes just died and remain in the genome as corpses. Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 119 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 7:59 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 126 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 10:13 AM NoNukes has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 125 of 466 (757924)
05-16-2015 9:46 AM
Reply to: Message 123 by Percy
05-16-2015 9:40 AM


Re: The Wells Report and Ball Pressure
All you succeeded in doing was avoiding the word - you still made the accusation.
Here I will accuse you of lying. I did not make the accusation. I acknowledged that you did not say what you meant and that acknowledgement was in my post. But I am not accepting any blame for misinterpreting you. You simply did not write what you meant.
That you don't like my position is obvious, but the mere fact that I hold it seems to offend you in some way, so could I suggest that you just focus on the topic?
I've told you my exact objection to your post, and it isn't that I don't like your position. How about you stop making up bogus motivations for me and focus on the topic?
My opinion of your position is that it is wrong. I don't find it offensive in any way. I did find your accusation offensive.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
The only thing I suggest is that genes died as a result of all those people and animals dying in the Flood, whose traits were lost to the species and therefore the alleles for those traits, so the genes just died and remain in the genome as corpses. Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 123 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 9:40 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 127 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 10:16 AM NoNukes has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 126 of 466 (757926)
05-16-2015 10:13 AM
Reply to: Message 124 by NoNukes
05-16-2015 9:40 AM


Re: The Wells Report and Ball Pressure
NoNukes writes:
But as for the ideal gas law, you simply don't have the information needed to apply that law accurately.
Your Ideal Gas Law scenario makes a bunch of assumptions that you cannot verify. True, balls don't warm up instantly, but we don't know how long they were given to warm up.
Yes, that's precisely the point, "we don't know," about too many things. And too many people are forgetting that.
Well, in my view, first sufficient evidence of a violation is needed, and they don't have that.
A violation is any tampering with the football regardless of magnitude. It does not even matter if the balls were still in spec after a slight deflation. Your position is contrary to that.
Actually, my position is not contrary to that. My position is that any tampering must be punished severely, but that tampering has not been established.
Further, a violation occurred before the footballs even got to the bathroom. McNally had no business even removing them from the referee's locker room at the point where they did so.
This is the Wells report position. The Patriot response points out that McNally did what he always does before a game. On this particular day he picked up the balls in front of all the referees, then walked past them out into the hallway, just like always. There's no "transfer of possession" sheet to sign. There's never been any requirement for the attendant to say something like, "Requesting permission to remove footballs from locker room and transport them to the field." Everyone's doing the same things they always do on game day.
Finally every bit of evidence is indirect and it all counts. You've admitted only looking at ball pressures. That's not enough.
It's plenty. It's the foundation. It's more than enough to know that tampering has not been established. Without that everything else falls apart.
Preponderance of the evidence (or more likely than not) also happens to be exactly the same standard that gets used daily in civil trials throughout the US. It is the same standard used to find OJ responsible for the wrongful death of his wife. So no it is not an excuse for anything. The choice to use the standard was made well before this incident.
You're repeating your old argument as if it hadn't already been rebutted. You'd like it just to be black and white, yes and no, as if the particulars and quality of the evidence don't matter. But they do, even in civil court, which this isn't yet. The punishments are out of all proportion to the evidence.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 124 by NoNukes, posted 05-16-2015 9:40 AM NoNukes has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 127 of 466 (757927)
05-16-2015 10:16 AM
Reply to: Message 125 by NoNukes
05-16-2015 9:46 AM


Re: The Wells Report and Ball Pressure
Look, I don't know what put the bee in your bonnet, but stop getting personal and just focus on the topic, okay?
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 125 by NoNukes, posted 05-16-2015 9:46 AM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 128 by NoNukes, posted 05-16-2015 12:01 PM Percy has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 128 of 466 (757930)
05-16-2015 12:01 PM
Reply to: Message 127 by Percy
05-16-2015 10:16 AM


Re: The Wells Report and Ball Pressure
Why don't you follow your own advice. Stop taking my disagreement with you as something personal and drop the psychoanalysis.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
The only thing I suggest is that genes died as a result of all those people and animals dying in the Flood, whose traits were lost to the species and therefore the alleles for those traits, so the genes just died and remain in the genome as corpses. Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 127 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 10:16 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 129 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 12:48 PM NoNukes has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 129 of 466 (757934)
05-16-2015 12:48 PM
Reply to: Message 128 by NoNukes
05-16-2015 12:01 PM


Re: The Wells Report and Ball Pressure
NoNukes writes:
Why don't you follow your own advice. Stop taking my disagreement with you as something personal and drop the psychoanalysis.
Whenever you're ready, focus on the topic.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 128 by NoNukes, posted 05-16-2015 12:01 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 130 by NoNukes, posted 05-16-2015 2:12 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 130 of 466 (757938)
05-16-2015 2:12 PM
Reply to: Message 129 by Percy
05-16-2015 12:48 PM


Re: The Wells Report and Ball Pressure
Sure Percy. Just stop tasking shots and focus on the topic.
Or just pull rank.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
The only thing I suggest is that genes died as a result of all those people and animals dying in the Flood, whose traits were lost to the species and therefore the alleles for those traits, so the genes just died and remain in the genome as corpses. Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 129 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 12:48 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 131 by NosyNed, posted 05-16-2015 2:56 PM NoNukes has replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8996
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 131 of 466 (757939)
05-16-2015 2:56 PM
Reply to: Message 130 by NoNukes
05-16-2015 2:12 PM


The Analysis
I don't get what the fuss is that you are making.
Percy's analysis makes it clear that there is room for the balls to be measured as underinflated even if there was no tampering. So far no one has shown that it can't be the case.
Until this is cleared up the punishment is unfair.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 130 by NoNukes, posted 05-16-2015 2:12 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 132 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 3:56 PM NosyNed has not replied
 Message 133 by NoNukes, posted 05-16-2015 5:45 PM NosyNed has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 132 of 466 (757942)
05-16-2015 3:56 PM
Reply to: Message 131 by NosyNed
05-16-2015 2:56 PM


Re: The Analysis
NosyNed writes:
Percy's analysis makes it clear that there is room for the balls to be measured as underinflated even if there was no tampering. So far no one has shown that it can't be the case.
Just so it's clear, I guess my high-level summary would go like this. I see two main factors. First, the Wells Report cites a great deal of smoke but didn't find a single fire. When I read it I expected to discover exactly how, where and by whom the footballs were deflated, and that accounted for the effects of temperature. Instead I found there were two different gauges that differed from each other by from .30 to .45 psi, that we don't know for sure which was used to check the original inflation pressure, that we don't know the temperature of the footballs when originally inflated, and that we don't know the temperature of the footballs when checked at halftime except that it must have been changing rapidly as the footballs warmed up, having just been moved from a 48°F to a 71°F environment.
Second, the punishment seems to go far beyond the quality of the evidence.
I grant that the Wells Report appears to paint a damning picture (I still haven't read the whole thing and am relying upon news reports for the parts not about football pressure), but they seem to have had a hypothesis in mind (that there was no doubt that there was tampering) that caused them to discount evidence inconsistent with it. Having accepted this hypothesis they never made any effort to disprove it, only to confirm it. We all know what happens to scientists who fall in love with a hypothesis.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 131 by NosyNed, posted 05-16-2015 2:56 PM NosyNed has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 133 of 466 (757943)
05-16-2015 5:45 PM
Reply to: Message 131 by NosyNed
05-16-2015 2:56 PM


Re: The Analysis
I disagree that Percy has shown any such thing. I think I've indicated where I think his analysis is overly optimistic.
ABE:
To summarize my position. In my view the evidence suggests that the balls were tampered with, but there are some possible explanations that covered some and maybe even most of the differences between the way the different teams balls measured at half time. Even Percy's best explanation does not cover the gap left by the worst three of four Patriot balls by either measurement. In my view the best explanation is that those four balls were lowered more than the others.
At best, the evidence from ball pressure is inconclusive, and at worst it is quite damning. But the evidence is in no way exculpatory. That's why Percy tries to close the gap by denying motives for letting out small amounts of air (less than say 0.5# or less than 0.65psi). I believe I've argued successfully that the Percy's motivation argument does not carry the day by suggesting at least one motive he admits is plausible And besides that there is some evidence that small amounts of pressure (say between 12.5 and 13.0 psi) do matter to Brady.
So in the face of the state of the pressure evidence, does it make sense not to look at the other evidence? Which person here is so in love with his own hypothesis that he does not think the other evidence matters?
Not me.
Which person tries to label standard measures of adjudication 'excuses to make decisions with flimsy evidence'
Not me.
Which person makes personal attacks while complaining about the same thing from the other side.
Well, yeah that would include me. But that class would also include Percy who I would argue started it, and then tried to insist that I was the one who needed to focus on the topic.
Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.
Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
The only thing I suggest is that genes died as a result of all those people and animals dying in the Flood, whose traits were lost to the species and therefore the alleles for those traits, so the genes just died and remain in the genome as corpses. Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 131 by NosyNed, posted 05-16-2015 2:56 PM NosyNed has not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 134 of 466 (757957)
05-17-2015 2:44 AM
Reply to: Message 122 by Percy
05-16-2015 9:28 AM


Re: NFL to Change Ball Preparation Rules
This means that the footballs cannot be inflated in the referees locker room as is the current practice. They must be inflated on the field at playing temperature.
Maybe.
It does not necessarily follow that because there is a standard for inflating the balls and that there are rules against tampering, that we must also strive preserve that standardization as the weather changes. NFL footballs also come with a standard surface and finish, but we don't try to compensate for wet weather conditions by putting tacky stuff on the ball, and there are rules against sticky stuff on your hands as well.
Football games in Green Bay or Foxboro during the dead of winter are different in lots of ways from games in Atlanta or Miami in early August. Little to no effort is made in the rules to make any adjustments for that. If the ball is flatter in February in GB because the rules and procedures have the balls inflated in an indoor room, maybe that's yet another weather related difference that you just have to live with. At least it is the same for both participating teams. Similarly, if the football carries a little better in Denver that in New Orleans, so be it.
Of course the NFL could make the change you suggest, but there is no reason based on fairness or consistency with their policy on non-tampering that they have to do it.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
The only thing I suggest is that genes died as a result of all those people and animals dying in the Flood, whose traits were lost to the species and therefore the alleles for those traits, so the genes just died and remain in the genome as corpses. Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 122 by Percy, posted 05-16-2015 9:28 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 135 of 466 (758141)
05-20-2015 7:55 AM


The Saga Continues
Citing the best interests of the league, Robert Kraft yesterday announced that he would not appeal the Wells Report findings or the penalties handed down by NFL executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent. Various news sources have speculated that his legacy and the lack of support from other owners were primary considerations.
Was there a backroom deal involving a reduced penalty for Brady? We may never know, but for now the Brady appeal is going forward. Given the success of Brady's attorney Jeffrey Kessler in tangles with the NFL and other sports leagues it feels like the exceedingly tenuous evidence that Brady was involved will play a much more significant role than it did in the Wells Report. The hearing hasn't yet been scheduled.
--Percy

  
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