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Author Topic:   Deflation-gate
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 136 of 466 (758198)
05-21-2015 3:45 PM


How Accurately Can One Deflate a Football
I took a football, an electric air pump with gauge, and a ball inflating needle and after a few practice runs did the following ten times:
  • Inflated the football to 20 psi.
  • Deflated the ball using the needle for a quick 2 count: one-two.
  • Checked the football pressure.
I hit 18 psi every time but once when I hit 17.5. I used a higher pressure to make it more difficult to control the pressure for a timed release, since the air escapes faster at a higher pressure and inaccuracies in timing would show up more.
Looking at the table of pressures of Patriot footballs from the Wells Report we can see that the footballs measured by Blakeman varied from a low of 10.5 to a high of 11.85 for a range of 1.35, those by Prioleau varied between 10.9 and 12.3 for a range of 1.4. If we assume tampering and ignore the ball with the highest pressure under the assumption that it was by accident not tampered with then the Blakeman pressures varied between 10.5 to 11.6 for a range of 1.1, and the Priloleau pressures varied between 10.9 and 11.95 for a range of 1.05. I'll be using these latter numbers.
To believe that tampering took place requires one to believe that:
  • If McNally used a pressure gauge to deflate the footballs then he is incompetent beyond belief.
  • If McNally did not use a pressure gauge to deflate the footballs, then despite his understanding that Tom Brady is very demanding about the pressure in his footballs, he nonetheless believed that adjusting the pressure without a gauge was accurate enough.
  • McNally, a far more experienced hand than myself at adjusting and measuring football pressure, couldn't time the release of pressure more accurately than a little over 1 psi, far worse than me using almost twice the pressure.
  • Tom Brady cares a great deal about the pressure in his footballs but can't tell a difference of over 1 psi.
  • Alternatively, Tom Brady *can* tell a difference of over 1 psi, but he prefers footballs whose pressures vary by over 1 psi to footballs at a little higher pressure but all equal.
I have to add that my gauge reads in 0.5 psi increments while the NFL gauges read in .05 psi increments. The order of 10 lower accuracy of my gauge means this is an imperfect comparison. Trying to compensate for the resolution factor was another reason I used a higher pressure, but to what degree that succeeded cannot be known.
I did check my gauge for repeatability by inflating the football to 20 psi then measuring the pressure 5 times. It came out at 20 psi every time. The NFL gauges might have a scale that reads in .05 psi increments, but are they really accurate to that amount? Would an NFL gauge have measured my football at 20.00 psi (or whatever it was at the more accurate level) every time, or would it vary, and by how much? The Wells Report claims NFL gauges read consistently but provides no details (see page XI, point 4).
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 137 by NoNukes, posted 05-22-2015 12:22 AM Percy has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 137 of 466 (758204)
05-22-2015 12:22 AM
Reply to: Message 136 by Percy
05-21-2015 3:45 PM


Re: How Accurately Can One Deflate a Football
To believe that tampering took place requires one to believe that:
If McNally used a pressure gauge to deflate the footballs then he is incompetent beyond belief.
Yes, the 'Mike Tyson' defense. "Of course she consented. I'm a known bully and no woman would go to my room expected not to get raped if she said no."
It is not necessary to believe any of the stuff you say is required.
I accept the word of people who say that the difference in pressure between a 12.5 and 12.0 is insignificant in terms of providing any advantage. That still does not mean that a professional football player does not want the ball set at 12.5 and will tolerate pressures even lower than 12.0. Maybe as low as 10.5. But not 13.0 and not 12.5.
It is entirely possible that the balls were deflated 'by ear' rather than doing a calibrated deflation using a pressure gauge. Given the available time, that's what seems to make sense. Whether or not that is an idiotic thing to do, is beside the point. Tampering with the footballs at all is pretty stupid.
And nothing would be more stupid than deflating the footballs without some idea that Brady wanted to ball pressure to be lowered. I'm not believing that, and I doubt that anyone would. If the balls were deflated, it was almost certainly done to match an expectation of Brady's.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
The only thing I suggest is that genes died as a result of all those people and animals dying in the Flood, whose traits were lost to the species and therefore the alleles for those traits, so the genes just died and remain in the genome as corpses. Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 136 by Percy, posted 05-21-2015 3:45 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 138 by Percy, posted 05-22-2015 7:26 AM NoNukes has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 138 of 466 (758215)
05-22-2015 7:26 AM
Reply to: Message 137 by NoNukes
05-22-2015 12:22 AM


Re: How Accurately Can One Deflate a Football
NoNukes writes:
It is not necessary to believe any of the stuff you say is required.
That seems rather hasty. You don't even believe the first point?
It is entirely possible that the balls were deflated 'by ear'...
By ear? I guess we could add another point to the list of things that have to be believed: "If McNally deflated the footballs 'by ear' then he is stupid beyond belief."
If the balls were deflated, it was almost certainly done to match an expectation of Brady's.
Or more accurately, "If the balls were deflated, it was almost certainly done to match a *presumed* expectation of Brady's."
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 137 by NoNukes, posted 05-22-2015 12:22 AM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 142 by NoNukes, posted 05-22-2015 1:27 PM Percy has replied

  
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1504 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 139 of 466 (758228)
05-22-2015 12:14 PM


lex parsimoniae
I think we can apply the Occam's Razor to this ball situation.
What do we know? We know the balls where under-inflated by NFL standards.
We know the balls where properly inflated prior to kickoff.
If the balls initial pressure was regulation and the post measurement showed deflation then the most likely answer is someone or something took the air out.
"If you eliminate the impossible, then whatever remains no matter how improbable, must be the truth." Sherlock Holmes.
So either the laws of physics didit or the Pats didit.
The answer with the fewer assumptions is that the air was let out by someone. (Just my opinion)
However I do not feel the punishment fits the crime since there is no smoking gun.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

Replies to this message:
 Message 140 by Percy, posted 05-22-2015 12:42 PM 1.61803 has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 140 of 466 (758230)
05-22-2015 12:42 PM
Reply to: Message 139 by 1.61803
05-22-2015 12:14 PM


Re: lex parsimoniae
1.61803 writes:
What do we know? We know the balls where under-inflated by NFL standards.
But we don't know the temperatures of the balls when measured. Balls just brought in from the field would have measured 1.2 psi below original inflation. Balls in the process of warming up would have measured less than 1.2 psi below original inflation, depending upon how much they'd warmed up.
We know the balls where properly inflated prior to kickoff.
We can only *accept* the word of the referee that he inflated them properly. We can't *know* that. Did he use the Logo gauge? The Non-Logo gauge? Or something no one seems to be considering, a mix? The pressures vary so widely that a more likely explanation is he used both gauges. Then at halftime the temperature drop and variable amounts of warming up over the 10 minutes it took to measure all the balls accounts for the remaining drop and variation.
If the balls initial pressure was regulation and the post measurement showed deflation...
Again, did the halftime measurement reflect deflation or temperature drop, and what was the impact of other factors?
However I do not feel the punishment fits the crime since there is no smoking gun.
Leaving aside the punishments to the organization because Kraft has already accepted them, what is Brady being punished for?
If he's being punished for holding back information then I think anyone who would like to discuss the history of organizations promising to keep information safe and confidential (the MLB's supposedly confidential drug testing scandal comes first, but not solely, to mind) should try to argue that multi-millionaire multi-megadeal Brady was not merely being justifiably prudent when he refused to turn over his phone, text and email messages to the Wells investigators.
And if he's being punished for a suspicion that he might have been "generally aware" that deflation was going on then it must be noted that, as you say, there's no "smoking gun." A punishment that harsh has to have better evidence.
Just to be clear, I'm not arguing there was no deflation. That can't possibly be known for sure. What I'm arguing is that it also can't be know for sure that there *was* deflation.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Add missing "below" to first para.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 139 by 1.61803, posted 05-22-2015 12:14 PM 1.61803 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 141 by 1.61803, posted 05-22-2015 1:06 PM Percy has replied

  
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1504 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 141 of 466 (758232)
05-22-2015 1:06 PM
Reply to: Message 140 by Percy
05-22-2015 12:42 PM


Re: lex parsimoniae
Your right of course we can't know.
Where the balls on the Colts side deflated? Would there even be a issue if both sides balls where all equally deflated?
We do not KNOW what the initial temperature of the balls where,
But if we accept the notion that the officials had no reason to lie and could be trusted, versus the Pat's gaining a advantage from deflated balls. The implication of cheating comes to mind verses the officials are trumping up some kind of witch hunt against the Pats.
It comes down to credibility and who one chooses to believe.
You are doing the right thing by not rushing to judgement and showing there can be other explanations. But the simplest explanation is they cheated do you agree?

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
 Message 140 by Percy, posted 05-22-2015 12:42 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 143 by Percy, posted 05-22-2015 4:16 PM 1.61803 has seen this message but not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 142 of 466 (758234)
05-22-2015 1:27 PM
Reply to: Message 138 by Percy
05-22-2015 7:26 AM


Re: How Accurately Can One Deflate a Football
By ear? I guess we could add another point to the list of things that have to be believed: "If McNally deflated the footballs 'by ear' then he is stupid beyond belief."
'By ear' means listening for the hiss as a start indicator and then replacing the needle some time shortly after based on sound/timing. It is my name for the procedure you used in your experiment.
If McNally believed he could reliably remove the air from all twelve balls and get completely consistent results doing it in exactly the way you did it, then he was mistaken. I'll let you form your conclusion about whether he was an idiot. I'll just call him mistaken.
However, those results were good enough to meet what were thought to be Brady's needs. But what was done was clearly not perfect because it had aroused some suspicion prior to the game.
If you want to promote the idea that the deflation as it must have been conducted was so stupid that the Patriots would never have tried it, then you are essentially using the 'Tyson defense'. I don't buy it.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

This message is a reply to:
 Message 138 by Percy, posted 05-22-2015 7:26 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 144 by Percy, posted 05-22-2015 4:51 PM NoNukes has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 143 of 466 (758237)
05-22-2015 4:16 PM
Reply to: Message 141 by 1.61803
05-22-2015 1:06 PM


Re: lex parsimoniae
1.61803 writes:
Were the balls on the Colts side deflated? Would there even be a issue if both sides balls where all equally deflated?
At halftime the Colts balls all sat for 10 minutes warming up while the Patriots balls were being measured, and then they only measured four Colts balls. The ones that were measured seemed fine.
We do not KNOW what the initial temperature of the balls were,
The temperature inside the facility was reported as 71°F, the temperature on the field at halftime as 48°F.
But if we accept the notion that the officials had no reason to lie and could be trusted,...
Well, for an official with two different gauges who had no idea they measured 0.4 psi differently and who wasn't sure which one he used, that this might provide motivation to not provide other details that might make him look even less competent than he already did comes to mind. And the reason Patriot concern about ball pressure had reached such a high level is because the officials had inflated the balls to 16 psi for the Jets game. So while I have a great deal of respect generally for NFL officials, and while I generally feel that officials have "no reason to lie and could be trusted," I don't think we know that for sure in this case.
The implication of cheating comes to mind verses the officials are trumping up some kind of witch hunt against the Pats.
If by "officials" you now mean representatives of the NFL front office like Roger Goodell and Troy Vincent (as opposed to the game refs), I don't know that I would characterize it as a witch hunt. I think they're just displaying the same level of competence consistent with what they've displayed over the past few years.
It comes down to credibility and who one chooses to believe.
Yes, which brings us back to the oft-repeated point about the punishment being out of all proportion to the evidence.
You are doing the right thing by not rushing to judgement and showing there can be other explanations. But the simplest explanation is they cheated do you agree?
Well, yes, I guess, if you ignore details. Let's say the question is a simple one, such as, "Since at halftime the balls were measured to be below their original pressure, isn't the simplest explanation that someone on the Pats staff deflated them?" In that case, sure, that's the simplest explanation.
But if the question is one that includes all the issues I've raised then the simplest answer is, "The data doesn't allow conclusive answers."
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 141 by 1.61803, posted 05-22-2015 1:06 PM 1.61803 has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 144 of 466 (758239)
05-22-2015 4:51 PM
Reply to: Message 142 by NoNukes
05-22-2015 1:27 PM


Re: How Accurately Can One Deflate a Football
NoNukes writes:
'By ear' means listening for the hiss as a start indicator and then replacing the needle some time shortly after based on sound/timing. It is my name for the procedure you used in your experiment.
Oh. When you said "by ear" I thought you were describing some procedure involving pitch or some other sound quality like timber.
The procedure I was using in my deflation experiment could be performed by a deaf person. You hold an inflation needle with the needle between two fingers and your thumb covering the large end. You insert the needle into the football, then you remove your thumb for a quick one-two count (or whatever count seems appropriate), then you place your thumb over the end of the needle again and remove the needle from the football. Listening for a hiss isn't part of it, though I guess hearing would be helpful in identifying when your thumb isn't properly covering the end of the needle.
Does McNally have hearing problems? If so, and if he did deflate the footballs, and if he wasn't placing his thumb squarely and firmly against the end of the needle, then that would be consistent with inconsistently deflated footballs. But arguing against this possibility is that air leaking past your thumb can be clearly felt, so McNally would also have to have a numb thumb.
If McNally believed he could reliably remove the air from all twelve balls and get completely consistent results doing it in exactly the way you did it, then he was mistaken. I'll let you form your conclusion about whether he was an idiot. I'll just call him mistaken.
I never said anything about McNally being an idiot for believing he could get consistent results without using a gauge. I said that to believe he couldn't get consistent results requires one to also believe that he's far worse at deflating footballs than even me, a rank amateur performing the task for the very first time.
However, those results were good enough to meet what were thought to be Brady's needs.
Sheer speculation.
But what was done was clearly not perfect because it had aroused some suspicion prior to the game.
I'm not sure what you're referring to here, so since I guessed so badly about what you meant by "by ear" I won't guess this time. Could you clarify?
If you want to promote the idea that the deflation as it must have been conducted was so stupid that the Patriots would never have tried it, then you are essentially using the 'Tyson defense'. I don't buy it.
I don't recall introducing this notion. Certainly McNally isn't drawing high marks for intelligence, but that doesn't say anything about other Patriots or the organization in general. Might this more be a case of, "I have such a good answer for this argument that I shall raise it myself."
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 142 by NoNukes, posted 05-22-2015 1:27 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 145 by NoNukes, posted 05-22-2015 5:17 PM Percy has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 145 of 466 (758241)
05-22-2015 5:17 PM
Reply to: Message 144 by Percy
05-22-2015 4:51 PM


Re: How Accurately Can One Deflate a Football
Listening for a hiss isn't part of it, though I guess hearing would be helpful in identifying when your thumb isn't properly covering the end of the needle.
No shit. But let's pretend that such a thing is not useful so that we can ridicule No Nuke's position.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

This message is a reply to:
 Message 144 by Percy, posted 05-22-2015 4:51 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 146 by Percy, posted 05-22-2015 5:37 PM NoNukes has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 146 of 466 (758242)
05-22-2015 5:37 PM
Reply to: Message 145 by NoNukes
05-22-2015 5:17 PM


Re: How Accurately Can One Deflate a Football
NoNukes writes:
No shit. But let's pretend that such a thing is not useful so that we can ridicule No Nuke's position.
Ridicule wasn't my intent. You tend to come up with scenarios I don't anticipate, so I was just trying to be thorough and cover as many bases as I could think of.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 145 by NoNukes, posted 05-22-2015 5:17 PM NoNukes has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 147 of 466 (758243)
05-22-2015 5:47 PM


Breaking News: Belichick Didn't Believe Brady
Comcast Sportsnet today reported Boston columnist Ron Borges's claim that Belichick never believed Brady's story: Borges: ‘I'm told Belichick never believed Brady’
Here's another article: New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick suspected Tom Brady wasn't being honest with him in Deflategate
I just now saw this, haven't had a chance to assess how true it might be. If true it would be big because Belichick knows Brady very well.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 148 by NoNukes, posted 05-22-2015 6:00 PM Percy has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 148 of 466 (758244)
05-22-2015 6:00 PM
Reply to: Message 147 by Percy
05-22-2015 5:47 PM


Re: Breaking News: Belichick Didn't Believe Brady
I did not read the second article, but I think the title of the first article really overstates what Borges actually said in the article
quote:
"Belichick never believed his story, from what I was told," said Borges. "Because they all know. Why do you think all those retired quarterbacks, the Troy Aikmans of the world ....
In short, Borges is not quoting people telling him that the Patriot's owner did not believe his quarterback. Borges reaches his conclusion because he believes that the conclusion that Brady knew is inescapable.
In short 'from what I was told' by other people and not 'I was told that Beli never believed Brady'. I'd consider this story just more fluff.
I decided to read the second story before postin, and guess what? same spin on the same quote from Borges. Nothing much there IMO.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

This message is a reply to:
 Message 147 by Percy, posted 05-22-2015 5:47 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 149 by Percy, posted 05-23-2015 10:43 AM NoNukes has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22392
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 149 of 466 (758278)
05-23-2015 10:43 AM
Reply to: Message 148 by NoNukes
05-22-2015 6:00 PM


Re: Breaking News: Belichick Didn't Believe Brady
Living within the Boston sports media radius I'm pretty familiar with all the sports guys on television, radio and in print, so I asked myself the question, "How reliable is Borges?" My initial reaction is that he's very opinionated and isn't afraid to throw strong opinions out there, but that he isn't a loose cannon either. His opinions can be speculative, but not usually unreasonably so.
Then I started wondering how would I rank Borges with other Boston sports reporters/commentators/columnists concerning their reliability, and here's what I came up with:
  • Dan Shaughnessy
  • Mike Reiss
  • Bob Neumeier
  • Bob Ryan
  • Jackie MacMullan
  • Mike Gorman
  • Michael Felger
  • Tony Massarotti
  • Christopher Gasper
  • Mike Mutnansky
  • Jerry Remy
  • Steve Burton
  • Gerry Callahan
  • Mike Lynch
  • Dan Roche
  • Kirk Minihane
  • Ron Borges
  • Tom Curran
  • Levan Reid
  • Scott Zolak
  • Greg Dickerson
  • Tommy Heinsohn
  • Gary Tanguay
The top five on that list could actually be in any order, or all tied for first. They're outstanding.
There are some big names I left off the list simply because even though they're well known and respected (Gordon Edes is one, but he mostly follows baseball), I simply haven't read or seen enough of them to have an opinion.
Borges comes out in the lower half, but these are all good guys. The only really bad one on the list is the last one.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 148 by NoNukes, posted 05-22-2015 6:00 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 150 by NoNukes, posted 05-23-2015 6:32 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 150 of 466 (758305)
05-23-2015 6:32 PM
Reply to: Message 149 by Percy
05-23-2015 10:43 AM


Re: Breaking News: Belichick Didn't Believe Brady
I'm not even complaining about Borges remarks. Borges drew an inference that many others have drawn; namely that any attempt to tamper with the footballs without some indication that the quarterback wanted that is extremely unlikely.
What I am objecting to is reports, that do not appear to be authored by Borges that spin his remarks to say something quite different. Those reports make it appear that Borges is claiming to have some inside information on what the coach is thinking. I don't see any evidence that Borges claimed any such thing.
It's the same kind of BS reporting that has marked the coverage of the entire issue. I doubt that anybody who actually knows has shared any inside negative information about what the coach thinks of Brady.

Je Suis Charlie
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

This message is a reply to:
 Message 149 by Percy, posted 05-23-2015 10:43 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
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