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Author Topic:   Getting to No
Percy
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Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 1 of 16 (761518)
07-02-2015 10:55 AM


As some might have guessed, the title of this thread is a play on the book title Getting to Yes. Today's NYT has an illustrative little puzzle (How Good Are You at Solving Problems?) that highlights one of the most important tenets of science, carefully exploring all the ways you might be wrong.
How many "No's" will you get before deciding you know the answer?
--Percy

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1503 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 2 of 16 (761521)
07-02-2015 11:55 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
07-02-2015 10:55 AM


Good information Percy.
I got two "yes" on my sequence of numbers and got it wrong.
I wont be a spoiler so I wont comment further other than to say I am continually looking for complicated answers to simple questions.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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ringo
Member (Idle past 411 days)
Posts: 20940
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005


(1)
Message 3 of 16 (761524)
07-02-2015 12:17 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
07-02-2015 10:55 AM


It took me longer to figure out how the @#$%ing interface worked than to solve the puzzle.
I also overthought the problem and got an over-specific solution. I didn't get any no's.

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Phat
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Posts: 18262
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


(1)
Message 4 of 16 (761526)
07-02-2015 12:49 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
07-02-2015 10:55 AM


Tricks are not only for kids
I thought I had it right until realizing that I had jumped to a conclusion. My test numbers were simply confirmation bias for my preconceived conclusion.
Then I noted that the article said
quote:
But most people start off with the incorrect assumption that if we’re asking them to solve a problem, it must be a somewhat tricky problem. They come up with a theory for what the answer is, like: Each number is double the previous number. And then they make a classic psychological mistake.
They don’t want to hear the answer no. In fact, it may not occur to them to ask a question that may yield a no.
I did exactly that.

God created war so that Americans would learn geography. —Mark Twain
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain

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NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 5 of 16 (761533)
07-02-2015 1:28 PM


I got four yeses and three nos before I committed to a solution. I use a very similar problem to test the reasoning of students I tutor for the SAT.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

  
Jon
Inactive Member


Message 6 of 16 (761586)
07-02-2015 8:43 PM


My answer was word-for-word what they gave.
Was that part of the experiment or am I just that good?
I guessed eight times and got three nos.

Love your enemies!

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 7 of 16 (761589)
07-02-2015 8:56 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
07-02-2015 10:55 AM


Greatest I Be
Damn I'm good. It only took me three "yes"s to get the wrong answer.

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Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(2)
Message 8 of 16 (761591)
07-02-2015 9:04 PM


I lost the page where I entered my guesses, but I had a number of no's. I checked integers, decimals, negative values and constants like pi and e (didn't accept them, only accepts properly formatted numbers). It doesn't have infinite precision - for example, it will give this a no:
1.0000000000000000000000001 1.0000000000000000000000002 1.0000000000000000000000003
Given this, now what's the rule?
--Percy

Replies to this message:
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xongsmith
Member
Posts: 2578
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 6.8


Message 9 of 16 (761594)
07-02-2015 9:22 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by Percy
07-02-2015 9:04 PM


Did you make sure to try some negative progressions in both directions and one across 0.0? The answer was extremely simple. But yes the precision you pointed out was a defect in the atof() they used.

- xongsmith, 5.7d

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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8996
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 10 of 16 (761595)
07-02-2015 9:29 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by AZPaul3
07-02-2015 8:56 PM


Better or Worse
Am I better or worse for getting a wrong answer after 4 yeses? It is educational( about me)

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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 11 of 16 (761596)
07-02-2015 9:45 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by NosyNed
07-02-2015 9:29 PM


Re: Better or Worse
Well, now that you mention it according to the writeup you received more positive feedback with your 4 yeses than I did with my 3. I guess you got more out of it than did I. You did better.
All of a sudden I'm not feeling so good about this.

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Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 12 of 16 (761597)
07-02-2015 10:13 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by xongsmith
07-02-2015 9:22 PM


xongsmith writes:
Did you make sure to try some negative progressions in both directions and one across 0.0?
Yes. But no matter how many tests we make there's always the possibility of exceptions, e.g., their test could be:
if (a < b && b < c && a != 1.2345)...
In which case the rule would be, "Each number is greater than the one before and the first number cannot be 1.2345."
--Percy

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subbie
Member (Idle past 1254 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


(2)
Message 13 of 16 (761621)
07-03-2015 10:08 AM
Reply to: Message 12 by Percy
07-02-2015 10:13 PM


And isn't that EXACTLY like science? No matter how confident we feel in our explanations, and how much success we've had, it's always possible that we fail the next test and have to try again.

Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions. -- Thomas Jefferson
We see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat
It has always struck me as odd that fundies devote so much time and effort into trying to find a naturalistic explanation for their mythical flood, while looking for magical explanations for things that actually happened. -- Dr. Adequate
Howling about evidence is a conversation stopper, and it never stops to think if the claim could possibly be true -- foreveryoung

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1404 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 14 of 16 (761622)
07-03-2015 10:49 AM
Reply to: Message 12 by Percy
07-02-2015 10:13 PM


Well I guess my bias was positive integers, but still ended up with the correct rule (their confirmation) -- 3 yes then one no before I committed.

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This message is a reply to:
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NoNukes
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 15 of 16 (761773)
07-05-2015 12:39 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by RAZD
07-03-2015 10:49 AM


Well I guess my bias was positive integers, but still ended up with the correct rule (their confirmation) -- 3 yes then one no before I committed.
Some yes answers are just as good at defeating confirmation bias as no questions. Just trying 1, 2, 3 is enough to convince you that the doubling rule is wrong.
We also make some assumptions about how complex the rule is likely to be. I did not try any decimal numbers or negative numbers. I did use zero.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams

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