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EvC Forum Side Orders Coffee House Gun Control Again

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Author Topic:   Gun Control Again
Percy
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Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(2)
Message 4921 of 5179 (782382)
04-22-2016 3:16 PM
Reply to: Message 4918 by Theodoric
04-22-2016 1:52 PM


Re: New study debunks NRA arguments
Theodoric writes:
The NRA argument is that there are millions of examples that good guys with guns stop bad guys with a gun. This study shows that there are not millions of examples.
Right - that's a good point. The NRA and gun nut response is that such cases usually go unreported, but that's inconsistent with the study's data (indeed, with any study's data). The study said that there were 37 times more criminal homicides than justifiable homicides, and since around 1/3 of Americans own guns, if a successful defense against armed criminals were something that possession of a defensive weapon actually made possible then it would not be 37 times more, but something much less, something more on the order of 3 times more (i.e., invert the value of 1/3 that represents the number of Americans with guns). And if having a defensive weapon provided a significant advantage then it should be even less than 3 times more, proving that possession of a defensive weapon provided people with an advantage over criminals. But it's not and it doesn't.
Not only that, it's nowhere close to 3 times. It's 37 times, more than an order of magnitude larger. There's no evidence in that study, or any study, of the advantages of defensive gun possession.
Did we already note this study from last year: The epidemiology of self-defense gun use: Evidence from the National Crime Victimization Surveys 2007—2011. It concludes:
  • "Self-defense gun use occurs in fewer than 1% of contact crimes"
  • It "is not associated with a reduced risk of victim injury"
  • That a gun provides no advantage over any other weapon when it comes to protecting property.
So that baseball bat in the closet? Apparently just as effective as a gun, and I'm willing to bet that no 3-year old has ever found a baseball bat and killed himself with it.
And this study didn't even consider the increased danger a gun in the home represents.
While looking up that study I also came across this article: The Myth of Defensive Gun Use. Interesting excerpts:
quote:
What do these and so many other cases have in common? They are the byproduct of a tragic myth: that millions of gun owners successfully use their firearms to defend themselves and their families from criminals. Despite having nearly no academic support in public health literature, this myth is the single largest motivation behind gun ownership.
...
In fact, gun owners are far more likely to end up...accidentally shooting an innocent person or seeing their weapons harm a family member, than be heroes warding off criminals.
...
Many gun advocates will protest at this point that not all defensive gun uses are reported to the police, which is true. However, Kleck’s surveys and the NCVS reports indicate that more than 50 percent of such incidents are reported to the police.
...
For example, the claim that millions every year shoot their guns in self-defense has led some to posit that there are more defensive gun uses than criminal uses. This assertion is inexplicablenot backed by any substantive evidence. We have yet to find a single study examining the question that does not show that criminal uses far outweigh defensive uses.
...
And indeed, comparing NCVS results to NCVS results yields a very different picturethat more than 9 times as many people are victimized by guns than protected by them.
...
A Harvard study [showed] that 51 percent of defensive gun uses in a large survey were illegal according to a panel of 5 judges.
...
But the evidence clearly shows that our lax gun laws and increased gun ownership, spurred on by this myth, do not help good guys with guns defend themselves, their families or our society. Instead, they are aiding and abetting criminals by providing them with more guns, with 200,000 already stolen on an annual basis. And more guns means more homicides. More suicides. More dead men, women and children. Not fewer.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Added missing word.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 4918 by Theodoric, posted 04-22-2016 1:52 PM Theodoric has not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 4923 of 5179 (782389)
04-22-2016 4:22 PM
Reply to: Message 4922 by New Cat's Eye
04-22-2016 3:28 PM


Re: New study debunks NRA arguments
Cat Sci writes:
Or, we could just drop the whole "safer" thing.
Instead of dropping "the whole 'safer' thing" maybe the gun lobby could allow the repeal of legislation that prevents the federal government from funding authoritative studies that could answer such questions once and for all.
But that's unlikely, so dropping the "safer" thing is probably more realistic.
About twice as many people defended themselves against violent crime with a firearm than people who died from a firearm.
It would be helpful for people who don't recall the figures if you provided hard numbers. There are around 32,000 gun deaths annually from all causes. There are no generally agreed upon figures for the number of defensive firearm uses against violent crime, but even if there were, comparing it to total firearm deaths doesn't seem particularly meaningful. What do you think it indicates?
As the study mentioned earlier stated (see The epidemiology of self-defense gun use: Evidence from the National Crime Victimization Surveys 2007—2011), "Self-defense gun use occurs in fewer than 1% of contact crimes." If it takes 33% of Americans owning guns to cause a 1% defensive use rate, than if 100% of Americans owned guns the defensive use rate would rise to only 3%. So much for arming America to thwart crime. Even worse for that claim, defensive gun use doesn't reduce injury risk.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 4922 by New Cat's Eye, posted 04-22-2016 3:28 PM New Cat's Eye has not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 4929 of 5179 (782958)
05-01-2016 11:29 AM


Successful Home Defense
‘He started crying like a little baby’: 11-year-old brags about shooting suspected home invader
That's quite the headline. According to 11-year old Chris Gaither the intruder was also armed, so Chris grabbed a 9mm handgun and when the intruder fled with a laundry hamper Chris emptied his 12-round clip, hitting the intruder once in the leg.
I just can't tell you how much safer I feel knowing that somewhere in my neighborhood there might be another Chris Gaither just itching for an excuse to let loose with his 9mm.
--Percy

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 4930 of 5179 (783083)
05-03-2016 8:39 AM


Concealed Carry Do-Gooder Gets Himself Killed
All it takes to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun, right?
Or maybe all it takes to make a good guy do something stupid is to grant him delusions of power by giving him a gun. Concealed carry gun-wielder intervenes in domestic dispute and is shot dead. Read it and weep.
--Percy

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 4931 of 5179 (783204)
05-04-2016 9:45 AM


Toddlers and Guns
From The Washington Post: Toddlers have shot at least 23 people this year
The headline says it all.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 4932 by NoNukes, posted 05-04-2016 12:37 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(2)
Message 4933 of 5179 (784084)
05-11-2016 8:07 PM


Best Gun Safety Tip: Dump It
In today's news: Detroit girl, 5, shoots herself with gun found under pillow. From the article:
quote:
The handgun was under a pillow in her grandmother's Detroit bedroom when the 5-year-old girl came upon it, police said Wednesday.
The girl, who was with two younger children about midnight, was playing with the weapon when it discharged, police said. She was fatally wounded, the latest casualty from shootings by children across the nation.
...
Police Cmdr. Jacqueline Pritchett told the Detroit News that the precinct is working with residents on gun safety.
Right. The only safe gun is one that's not there.
--Percy

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 4934 of 5179 (784735)
05-22-2016 9:07 AM


After Death of 5-year Old Girl, Family Left Defenseless
From NBC News: Louisiana Girl, 5, Fatally Shoots Self While Playing With Gun
quote:
Detectives said the gun was unsecured, the sheriff's office said.
Well of course it was unsecured. What good is a gun for home defense if it's secured? The father's .45 caliber gun had been left on a table where anyone could grab it at a second's notice, standard practice for effective home defense.
quote:
Baker, the sheriff's lieutenant, told the station, "Safety, everything is safety. If you're the owner of a weapon, buy a safe box, a gun safe. That's the way it is. Teach your kids. Teach your family about it."
Doesn't the sheriff's office know anything? That family was not safe until the father brought home a gun, and now this unpreventable tragedy has probably caused the sheriff's office to remove the gun from the home, leaving the family defenseless again.
There were three kids in the home at the time. The mother and father of the children are divorced, and the children visit the father every other weekend. The court will probably immediately halt the father's shared custody privileges, but what about those children's safety? Does the mother have an unsecured gun sitting on a table out in the open? I sure hope so, otherwise those kids will be in even more danger.
--Percy

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 4936 of 5179 (784793)
05-23-2016 11:59 AM


Analysis: Shootings with Four or More Casualties
In today's New York Times: A Drumbeat of Multiple Shootings, but America Isn’t Listening
The analysis was of shootings with four or more *casualties* including the shooter, not deaths. Significant findings:
  • 358 armed encounters with four or more people wounded or dead
  • 462 dead, 1,300 injured
  • Most shootings occurred in economically downtrodden neighborhoods
  • Nearly 3/4 of victims and assailants were black
  • Roughly half involved crime or gang activity
  • 2/3 or shootings took place outdoors
  • Typical victim was between 18 and 30
  • Average age of suspects was 27
--Percy

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 4937 of 5179 (785872)
06-12-2016 5:17 PM


Worst Mass Shooting in U.S. History
From today's New York Times (caps in original): 50 ARE SHOT DEAD AT GAY NIGHTCLUB IN FLORIDA; ATTACK IS WORST MASS SHOOTING IN U.S. HISTORY
Time for common sense gun control. This reminds me of another discussion I'm in now. Those against gun control seem as irrationally in love with guns as antebellum Southerners were in love with slavery.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 4938 by Asgara, posted 06-12-2016 5:21 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
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 Message 4940 by Diomedes, posted 06-12-2016 11:21 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
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Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 4976 of 5179 (796636)
01-02-2017 8:26 AM
Reply to: Message 4974 by Coyote
01-01-2017 11:12 PM


Re: Man with concealed-carry permit fatally shoots would-be robber
The man was shot, too:
quote:
The 23-year-old was shot in the hip during the fight and taken to Stroger Hospital, where his condition was stabilized, according to police.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 4974 by Coyote, posted 01-01-2017 11:12 PM Coyote has not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(2)
Message 5046 of 5179 (821150)
10-03-2017 10:15 AM


Commedians on Mass Shooting in Las Vegas
Jimmy Kimmel:
Conan O'Brien:
Trevor Noah (only the first 4 minutes):
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 5048 by Phat, posted 10-03-2017 2:12 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 5070 of 5179 (821278)
10-04-2017 5:57 PM
Reply to: Message 5058 by Stile
10-04-2017 12:34 PM


Re: Chart Help
I don't have an answer for you, but I do have a little information. There's little correlation between number of guns in a country and homicide rates because of the "gun collector" factor. In the US gun collecting is very popular. There are more guns than people in US. The popularity of gun collecting varies across countries without discernible rhyme or reason.
A more meaningful correlation for comparing countries would be between the homicide rate and the gun ownership rate, where the number of guns owned isn't considered. The gun ownership rate could be by household or by individual.
BBC had a good article today that contains part of the information you want:
Here's a graph I posted a couple years ago in Message 4502:
Here's a graph I posted a good long time ago showing the levels of gun ownership by country:
Here's a scatterplot I made and posted in Message 3018. It shows that by state there is no apparent relationship between gun prevalence and gun homicides:
Here's a great paper originally posted in Message 3151 that found that each percentage point increase in gun ownership resulted in a .9% increase in gun homicide: The Relationship Between Gun Ownership and Firearm Homicide Rates in the United States, 1981—2010. Oh, darn, it's behind a paywall now.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5058 by Stile, posted 10-04-2017 12:34 PM Stile has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 5074 by Stile, posted 10-05-2017 9:14 AM Percy has replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(2)
Message 5076 of 5179 (821297)
10-05-2017 10:04 AM
Reply to: Message 5074 by Stile
10-05-2017 9:14 AM


Re: Chart Help
Fundamental to the gun debate is an inherent disagreement about the dangers of guns. Gun nuts think guns make you safer, sane people understand that guns are inherently dangerous. Safely acquiring a gun for protection requires training and periodic retraining and practice and figuring out how to store the gun safely and also figuring out how a safely stored gun is going to be available for protection and being vigilant about never leaving the gun out and never leaving the safety off and never having the gun loaded (again leaving open the question of how it provides protection) and knowing that you will never become sad or mentally ill or angry. Once all these issues have been addressed (and probably other issues I've forgotten) only then is the gun safe.
Gun nuts don't find these issues of particular concern but instead continually assert, without evidence, that guns make you safer. That's why that paper (The Relationship Between Gun Ownership and Firearm Homicide Rates in the United States, 1981—2010 that's now behind a paywall) and others like it (don't particularly feel like conducting a research search at the moment, maybe later) are so important. They show unequivocally that increases in gun ownership leads to increases in gun homicide.
I won't comment about the rest of your post about rates, other than to say that I agree that there is something different about the way you're looking at rates. I don't believe there are any studies about the outcomes of changes in the gun acquisition rate. It has been said many times that even if Americans stopped buying guns today, there are already so many guns in the population and guns wear out so slowly that it would be literally decades before this reduction in gun buying to zero would have any effect.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5074 by Stile, posted 10-05-2017 9:14 AM Stile has seen this message but not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(2)
Message 5085 of 5179 (821314)
10-05-2017 11:42 AM
Reply to: Message 5083 by PaulK
10-05-2017 11:24 AM


Re: Forensic Panel Profiles Vegas Killer
PaulK writes:
Notoriety seems a more likely motivation since he would get that just by killing enough people. It may not be his actual motive, but it seems likelier than killing for a cause.
My guess for a driving factor for ending his life is that he was running out of money, or that he was seriously in debt. I think the $100,000 he sent his girlfriend was about all that was left, within a $100,000 or two. I understand that this guess doesn't help with divining his motivation for going out in an orgy of murder.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5083 by PaulK, posted 10-05-2017 11:24 AM PaulK has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 5086 by Phat, posted 10-05-2017 12:14 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22391
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 5113 of 5179 (823175)
11-06-2017 6:00 PM


Texas This Time
26 killed at Baptist church in Texas
The calls for effective gun control will be raised again, and they will fall on the deaf ears of gun nuts again.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 5114 by Taq, posted 11-06-2017 6:07 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 5115 by Coffeeblack, posted 11-06-2017 6:08 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 5117 by Heathen, posted 11-07-2017 2:39 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 5119 by Dogmafood, posted 11-07-2017 9:22 PM Percy has replied

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