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Over the last four elections, Virginia has gone to democrats twice and republicans twice. So when you say that it is democratic in presidential years that means what exactly?
In 2000 Gore lost 52.4% to 44.4%
in 2004, Kerry lost by 8.1%
In 2008 Obama won by 6.6%.
In 2012 Obama won by 3.9%.
Actually, I'm really glad you want to go back (almost) to the last century. Though not for the same reasons I suppose.
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Barack won North Carolina in his first election and lost it in the second election.
Obama won by 0.2% in 2008 when he won nationwide by 7.4%. He won nationwide by 3.9% in 2012, but lost by 2.4%. Hillary is down by 4% in 2 straight polls, including one today. It is a battleground perhaps.
My point was that she doesn't have her 9 point lead anymore, and this was one of a few states that would make the Electoral College total much closer (than the big Hillary lead we heard of weeks ago) if Trump improved his performance.
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I am not going to dispute a single poll with you. But let's consider that Trump is now running alone while Clinton has yet to get Sanders put away. Neither candidate has picked a running mate.
You are drawing a picture of a unified GOP and divided Democratic party. But 2016 public opinion Presidential polls show typical crossover numbers. Remember that in 2008, Obama got just 7% of Republican voters, while McCain got 11% of Democrats, and 2012 saw even more Democrats cross over for Romney and fewer GOP crossover voters. Obama only won 86% of liberals in 2012.
I see just the opposite dynamic at play (than the picture you draw).
Democrats (alone) are fairly united, but the country is very much anti-establishment.
Trump just bashed GOP star Governor Susan Martinez in New Mexico. And the neo-con Bill Kristol. And Mitt Romney. And Jeb Bush.
Nominee or not, why is Trump still smacking Republicans around? | Fox News
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Nominee or not, why is Trump still smacking Republicans around?
By Howard Kurtz
....
...after all our months of obsessing over 1,237, there was something about seeing him exceed that magic number that underscored the magnitude of what Trump had just pulled off
....
But while this should be a unifying moment for Trump, that hasn’t been the case,
....
The signature moment was when Trump went to New Mexico and slammed the state’s governor, Susana Martinez
....
But Trump was just getting warmed up. He repeated his shots at Mitt Romney as a choke artist and added a new image, that the last GOP nominee waddles like a penguin. He was back to wondering whether low-energy Jeb might get a burst of energy and endorse him.
And then Trump took on Bill Kristol, who has been leading the charge for a conservative third-party candidate.
....
Well, Kristol is a pretty prominent conservative as the editor of the Weekly Standard and a former GOP strategist who worked for Dan Quayle in the White House.
Noting that Kristol was a major Iraq war booster, Trump said: All the guy wants to do is kill people, go to war and kill people, even though he knows it’s not working, although he doesn’t know because he’s not smart enough. And later on: What a loser!
The Republicans are really united, huh?
And Romney won't support Trump.
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Finally I would suggest taking a peek at what is required for Republicans and Democrats to win a general election. As long as you are futzing around about margins in North Carolina and Virginia, you are talking about zip point diddly. Barack was very competitive in NC even in that second election but ultimately he ended up about where Hillary is polling right now. Bernie got his but totally kicked in North Carolina.
Bernie got his butt kicked in the Democratic primary, thus contradicting your picture of a divided party. But he is beating Trump.
Btw, now Clinton is only leading Trump by 10% in safely Democratic California. Sanders wins by 24%. And he has limited Democratic support too(so limited that he gets butt kicked in the primaries).
Clinton leads Trump by 1% while Sanders butt-kicks him by around 10%.
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