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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 76 of 887 (786510)
06-22-2016 4:03 PM
Reply to: Message 71 by Tangle
06-22-2016 2:45 AM


Re: Remember the main issue driving "Leave" or Brexit.
quote:
The fundamental issue for those that are voting to leave is that they feel that the UK is a small overpopulated island that can't accept immigration at the rate it's happening. It's schools, hospitals, housing, roads and infrastructure can't support it.
To be honest, existing towns do have a hard time adjusting to large population increases. I think towns need to be built from scratch - in what are presently essentially population-free areas - but only China seems to have the political will to make this sort of thing a reality. Carl Sagan, in Cosmos, said that it would be more efficient to tear down every structure in Manhattan AT THE SAME TIME instead of demolishing one building at a time and rebuilding in just one spot. We need building that are much much deeper, longer, taller. I have heard that Chinese planners have proposed 1 square mile buildings that could hold 1 million people. The design would make for efficient travel and transportation infrastructure as well. China already built a duplicate of Manhattan from scratch. They had an empty island that was shaped like the New York stretch that is Manhattan. The U.K. can handle large population increases, but it takes good central planning. Perhaps that is unlikely since "devolution" has caught on, so a "race to the bottom" might be on in the U.K. as is so fashionable in the U.S.A. I hope the same sort of myopia prevalent in this country doesn't infect the British as they need to tackle many fronts like we all do.
quote:
Inside that is a dislike of how the UK is no longer, they say, British.
Immigrants don't have voting powers anywhere near the native population. In the U.S.A, it is grumpy old farts that do the vast majority of the voting. Aside from a few brave, bright, productive souls like Bill Gates one will be hard pressed to find anyone with the thoughtfulness to speak uncomfortable truths about the benefits of immigration, trade, and especially unification. Unification and its benefits is a taboo subject. You only hear the downsides, and the sad thing is that it isn't just from the demagogues. I almost think we need a temporary constitutional amendment that requires a (say) 20 year temporary constitutional requirement for the media to be fair and cover the issues from an anti-nationalist perspective for once. Have a "fairness doctrine" that requires the benefits of ending borders to be presented and at least put on the map as an issue. It is a huge problem in the U.S.A. anyway.
quote:
They're quite happy to play off unverifyable, esoteric and indirect long-term economic benefits against those more obvious and direct disbenefits that they actually see and feel right now.
There are academic studies that show what will happen IF YOU DO SOMETHING, but there are also real world examples of what has happened already.
Look at Germany for example.
Would Germany have been better off had it never had the split?
What about Korea?
Was the split helpful or hurtful to world economic growth?
The sanctions on Iran, that Obama put on, have caused the nation to have a per capita GDP that is only $5,500 per year instead of $6,500, based on all credible studies.
We can tell what helps and what hurts. And we can't be so stupid as to think that a poorer world helps the richest nations. Let's not be ridiculous.

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 Message 71 by Tangle, posted 06-22-2016 2:45 AM Tangle has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


(1)
Message 77 of 887 (786514)
06-22-2016 4:16 PM
Reply to: Message 74 by Tangle
06-22-2016 11:32 AM


Re: Predictions
quote:
Tomorrow we vote for something that can't be undone in a generation if ever. It's a big, big thing that will directly affect the lives of my children and theirs.
Time for predictions. What will happen on Friday morning if we vote out?
I predict a sterling and stock market crash.
The older farts pass away in large numbers every day and the younger ones aren't so myopic and destructive. The young folks in every E.U country (France, Greece, and yes the U.K.) are like 80 to 20 in favor of the relatively anti-nationalistic European Union.
Only the old fools want out.
If the awful happens (the "leave" side wins), then we can rest assured that it will be by a razor thing margin. Make the case that it was an older rotting generation that made this disastrous decision. Just keep hitting the point that this catastrophe can and will be overturned as the nationalists shrink in numbers each and every passing day, while a brighter young generation replaces it with anti-nationalistic thought and feelings.
Lets assume that the Brexit side wins. Just for now.
Demand that a new vote be held each and every year. Just because ignorance won the day - and by a razor thin margin - doesn't mean that this cheap victory should shackle the younger ones who want a better world. The world belongs to the younger generations.
Overturn this disastrous vote that was simply a temporary bump brought about by ignorance that was momentarily filled by loud demagoguery.
Otherwise the world will be in a much reduced state of growth, prosperity, peace, freedom, hope, etc.
Then again, lets assume that the vote is to stay. Be grateful that economic growth, as opposed to depression, can continue.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 74 by Tangle, posted 06-22-2016 11:32 AM Tangle has not replied

Replies to this message:
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LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 78 of 887 (786531)
06-22-2016 6:03 PM


Take the Japanese example. (my final example)
I have been looking at 1993 because a lot happened during that time and after that was unprecedented (in trade especially, but also to a fair extent in immigration) in the past 100 years (from around World War 1 to 2016). We stopped our enormous immigration here in the USA in 1924. We put up trade barriers. We chopped up the world into hundreds of pieces/nations. We went broke as a result.
But lets look at Japan, in 1993, as it is an interesting example of a nation that has BOTH sort of stopped having children (relative to all known examples in the past and also relative to the rest of the world at present) and ALSO been quite against bringing in immigrants. It was an advanced country that was #2 in the world as far as economic size and it also had a growing per capita income that far exceeded the USA.
In 1993 the average Japanese per person income was $35,389. The average age of a Japanese person was about 30. Now it is over 45 (I think). It has aged. And the country has avoided allowing in many immigrants.
The per person income, in Japan, should be much larger, than 1993, according to the U.K. Independent party and the Neo Nazi parties of Europe (and elsewhere).
Not really.
In 2015, it seems to have been just $32,485, if this below linked site is correct.
GDP per Capita by Country | Forecast from IMF | 2020-2024 - knoema.com
The United States went from around $25,000 per person income up to about $57,000 in 2015. And with a lot more immigration plus unprecedented free trade deals.
The U.K. went up from $18,440, in 1993, to $43,770 in 2015.
This is with the great E.U expansion and the resulting immigration due to it.
GDP per Capita by Country | Forecast from IMF | 2020-2024 - knoema.com
These are real numbers.
And studies show that South Korea will have a higher per person income than Japan not too long after taking in 24 million of the poorest people in the world (coming from a unification with North Korea).
I can't really blame the media for ignoring these real world examples, because the U.K. media is much better than the U.S. media at covering issues from all sides. I can't blame the U.K. media that is. The American media sucks.
Younger British voters better get motivated to defend these hard won gains in prosperity because the old fools are highly motivated to vote to throw away the progress (at a bare minimum future growth will be retarded severely).
Pay attention to the exit polls, because the younger Brits are fundamentally pro-E.U. because they know it is one of the greatest forces for growth the world has ever seen. Real growth that isn't a mirage based on fluke circumstances and temporary economic climates. The E.U. is fundamentally pro growth when compared all the alternatives the British are considering. And the Brexit is the most awful option around. Though an even more awful option would be to stay in the E.U. with an amendment to change the E.U. constitution to annul the right to free travel across borders. That option has been watered down, but concessions have been made. Hopefully the concessions will expire and rot eventually. We, earthlings, need to return to the pre 2015/2016 concessions.
But voting against the "Leave" option is a monumentally important step top take TODAY. (or tomorrow as it is June 22 here in Omaha, Nebraska)
This is a vote for all mankind. The astronauts, when landing on the moon, mentioned that the man-made borders weren't visible from space.
Everybody's future is at stake.
There is a right vote and there is a wrong vote. There is an economically correct vote and an economically incorrect vote. There is a moral vote and an immoral option.
It is immoral to vote for Brexit. (or to not vote at all)
There are rights and there are wrongs in this world we all share.

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 79 of 887 (786537)
06-22-2016 8:58 PM
Reply to: Message 37 by LamarkNewAge
06-19-2016 7:01 PM


Re: Watch a 20% shrinkage in the British economy if "leave" wins.
George Soros is an expert on currency (he is famous for making $1 billion in just a day for speculation on the British pound in 1992)
Here what he has to say.
quote:
June 20, 2016 6:09 PM CDT
Updated on June 21, 2016 4:53 AM CDT
The pound held its biggest two-day advance against the dollar in more than seven years as investors bet that momentum in the countdown to Thursday’s referendum was swinging in favor of Remain. Soros, who made $1 billion betting on a devaluation of the pound in 1992, warned that the possibility of the U.K. leaving the EU is still a real risk that could cut the currency’s value by a fifth.
I want people to know what the consequences of leaving the EU would be before they cast their votes, rather than after, Soros wrote in the Guardian newspaper. It is reasonable to assume, given the expectations implied by the market pricing at present, that after a Brexit vote the pound would fall by at least 15 percent and possibly more than 20 percent.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Looks like the 20% drop I mentioned could apply to its currency right away.
But polls are showing a swing late for "remain". Here is a story from 3 hours ago
http://www.cnbc.com/...ling-stalls-ahead-of-brexit-vote.html
Sterling hits 2016 high after latest Brexit polls show 51% back 'remain'
CNBC-3 hours ago
The sterling hit its highest levels of the year after polls showed that 51 percent back remaining in the EU. The pound sterling was last at $1.4798 ...
That was the story at the top of google news when I simply put in "latest polls" into the search engine.
Google
More hits for the U.K. vote than Clinton/Trump.
I think it is June 23 in the U.K. now.
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 80 of 887 (786546)
06-23-2016 4:08 AM
Reply to: Message 77 by LamarkNewAge
06-22-2016 4:16 PM


Re: Predictions
The older farts pass away in large numbers every day and the younger ones aren't so myopic and destructive. The young folks in every E.U country (France, Greece, and yes the U.K.) are like 80 to 20 in favor of the relatively anti-nationalistic European Union.
Only the old fools want out.
While this is of course an exaggeration, it does raise an important point about the whole referendum business. If only people under the age of 50 voted, the result would be a convincing victory for the Remain vote, according to opinion polls. And yet it's the younger generaitons who are going to have to live with the consequences of this vote the longest.
I used to be very much in favour of referenda, but I'm starting to question that. The results of a general election can be undone in about 5 years; that's not the case with a major constitutional change like this.

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 Message 77 by LamarkNewAge, posted 06-22-2016 4:16 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

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Heathen
Member (Idle past 1283 days)
Posts: 1067
From: Brizzle
Joined: 09-20-2005


(4)
Message 81 of 887 (786547)
06-23-2016 6:16 AM
Reply to: Message 74 by Tangle
06-22-2016 11:32 AM


Re: Predictions
Not my words...
"Friday's going to be amazing! I'm going to wake up in my Union Jack jim-jams to the sound of a squadron of Spitfires racing overhead and leaving a trail of hot buttered crumpets behind them
I'll run to the corner shop past all the British children who are laughing and squealing with excitement as they make a beautiful statue of the queen out of happy wriggling bulldog puppies - with two corgis for her eyebrows!
Bunting flutters everywhere and the man from the betting shop steps into the street - "guess what! England just won the World Cup & The Ashes & The Grand National and here's the best bit - Boris put a bet on it for everyone! you're all MILLIONAIRES!!!"
The red arrows fly overhead dropping fish and chips as I walk into the corner shop, get my morning paper and go to the counter. "how much please?" I say to the Asian lad there. "1 pence, everything in the whole shop now costs just 1p!" he laughs, "leave it on the counter, I'm off back to Pakistan - we all are!"
and he's right! outside in the streets jolly old Nigel Farage is leading a huge crowd of happy foreigners - Turks, Poles, Romanians, Syrians - there's even a few English people with heavy suntans mixed up in there! Nigel's playing Rule Britannia on a long pipe, rather like the pipe that takes the gas into your oven, and they're all following and smiling and talking foreign, bless them!
Just then Boris flies overhead in a Concorde made of Bank of England gold - "don't worry!" he laughs "I've cut out all the bits the French made!" and with that he crashes into the ground at 1200 miles an hour, along with the economy, the country and all the dozy nostalgic foreigner-fearing fuck wits who fell for his bullshit."

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Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 82 of 887 (786548)
06-23-2016 7:14 AM


I've voted. I'm frightened.
This decision is too important for democracy.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien.
Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 83 of 887 (786553)
06-23-2016 8:44 AM
Reply to: Message 80 by caffeine
06-23-2016 4:08 AM


Re: Predictions
The results of a general election can be undone in about 5 years; that's not the case with a major constitutional change like this.
But the government can still institute major constitutional changes without a referrendum like with the Maastricht Treaty. It has taken decades for an opportunity to undo the Maastricht Treaty has come up.
It's a tricky situation because the voters are not fully informed, but the parties are split and something definitive needs to happen because the question of Europe has divided the UK for two general elections. A referrendum has the advantage of acting as a tie breaker given the split mind of parliament.
I normally don't mind representatives making a decision on my behalf with my decision being only who I want to represent me even when I disagree - because I'm not an expert on most issues and the system is conservative but basically functional. However, a tie-breaker would probably do the UK some good.

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Big_Al35
Member (Idle past 800 days)
Posts: 389
Joined: 06-02-2010


Message 84 of 887 (786555)
06-23-2016 9:02 AM
Reply to: Message 77 by LamarkNewAge
06-22-2016 4:16 PM


Re: Predictions
LamarkNewAge writes:
If the awful happens (the "leave" side wins), then we can rest assured that it will be by a razor thing margin. Make the case that it was an older rotting generation that made this disastrous decision. Just keep hitting the point that this catastrophe can and will be overturned as the nationalists shrink in numbers each and every passing day, while a brighter young generation replaces it with anti-nationalistic thought and feelings.
Surely it's the older 'rotting' generation who, having witnessed the changes, are in the best position to cast an appropriate vote. The young fools have nothing to compare against. Now I am not saying things were great in the good old days, I remember things being pretty bad, but there was more freedom, less surveillance, and you could even kick a can down the road without getting a fine.

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 Message 77 by LamarkNewAge, posted 06-22-2016 4:16 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

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Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9076
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 85 of 887 (786556)
06-23-2016 9:23 AM
Reply to: Message 84 by Big_Al35
06-23-2016 9:02 AM


Re: Predictions
And the EU is responsible for those changes?

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(2)
Message 86 of 887 (786570)
06-23-2016 12:57 PM
Reply to: Message 84 by Big_Al35
06-23-2016 9:02 AM


Re: Predictions
Surely it's the older 'rotting' generation who, having witnessed the changes, are in the best position to cast an appropriate vote. The young fools have nothing to compare against. Now I am not saying things were great in the good old days, I remember things being pretty bad, but there was more freedom, less surveillance, and you could even kick a can down the road without getting a fine.
We have similar problems with voting here. Old people who vote Communist since they remember that, when the Communists were in power, their hips worked, they were prettier, and they didn't need to get up twice in the night to piss. Things were clearly better then.

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LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 738 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 87 of 887 (786572)
06-23-2016 2:34 PM


A "live coverage" from the WSJ.
quote:
Brexit: U.K. Votes in EU ReferendumLive Coverage
Last Updated Jun 23, 2016 at 2:24 pm ET
Live coverage and analysis on the U.K.'s referendum on membership of the European Union.
Gareth Vipers4m
Top Issues by UK Local Authority
Google Trends has created a map that visualizes which EU referendum-related topics Britons have searched for in recent weeks.
Breaking down the U.K.'s top Google searches by region gives an interesting indication of what matters most to voters: immigration.
When that theme was taken up by the "Leave" campaign in recent weeks, it delivered a fillip in the polls. By contrast, trade and the economy, both central issues to the "Remain" argument, seemed to have less traction, according to google.
Live coverage and analysis on the U.K.'s referendum on membership of the European Union.
It has a live interactive map.
This might be a useful site.
Have any returns come in yet?
It seems that immigration is the driving issue for the "leave" side.
The economist has an article on the issue.
quote:
Britain and the EU
The Brexit delusion
David Cameron will struggle to win a referendum on Britain’s EU membership. If he loses, the result will be messy at best and at worst disastrous
Feb 27th 2016 | From the print edition
The Brexit delusion | The Economist
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

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Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9076
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 88 of 887 (786576)
06-23-2016 3:31 PM
Reply to: Message 87 by LamarkNewAge
06-23-2016 2:34 PM


reports on referendum
There will be no reporting until polls are closed.
What can the BBC report?
* Uncontroversial factual accounts such as the appearance of politicians and others at polling stations or the weather.
* The practicalities such as when the polls are open, the wording of the question and expectations of when the result may be known are allowed.
* The BBC’s online sites will not have to remove archived reports.
What can’t the BBC report?
* The BBC stops short of actually encouraging people to vote.
* While the polls are open, it is a criminal offence for anyone, not just broadcasters, to publish anything about the way in which people have voted in the referendum, where that is based on information given by voters after they have voted.
* The BBC can’t report anything emerging from exit polls (which, by definition, are asking people how they actually voted), although the broadcasters have not commissioned any exit polls for the referendum.
* No opinion poll on any issue relating to the referendum can be published by broadcasters until after the polls have closed.
Corbyn ballot challenge ruling & Boris Johnson in Paris talks - BBC News
H/T to PZ
Can we get these rules here?

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 87 by LamarkNewAge, posted 06-23-2016 2:34 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

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caffeine
Member (Idle past 1024 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 89 of 887 (786577)
06-23-2016 3:45 PM
Reply to: Message 88 by Theodoric
06-23-2016 3:31 PM


Re: reports on referendum
* The BBC can’t report anything emerging from exit polls (which, by definition, are asking people how they actually voted), although the broadcasters have not commissioned any exit polls for the referendum.
Interestingly, I read that there are exit polls being conducted on the referendum, but not by broadcasters and news agencies. They're being done by banks - they won't be published of course; but the big banks don't want to wait for the official announcement of the results before telling their traders what to do.
And this gives me a bit of hope, since the pound at the moment seems to be rising against the dollar on the short term markets. Hoping that this means the banks have already called the vote for Remain, but it's possible I'm completelt misunderstanding the currency trading markets - not really something I know a great deal about.

This message is a reply to:
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Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 90 of 887 (786597)
06-23-2016 6:24 PM


Voting closed a while ago. No results for a while yet, but all the talk is about a remain decision - but in truth, no-one knows.
All that's known is that the turn-out is very high.
Still shit-scared.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien.
Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android
"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

Replies to this message:
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