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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8
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Pressie writes: Maybe the UK out of the EU should consider something like the OZ point system, with major tweaks involved. In as much as there's a plan, that's it.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
NN writes:
Ouch. And possibly without a huge chunk of their financial sector. That now seems unlikely.
I suppose one way to solve an immigration problem is to create a country to which folks won't want to move. It's also unlikely that the immigration problem will be solved. The talk now is of downplaying freedom of movement because it's a redline for the EU if you want to trade with them without tariffs. Who would have guessed?
What's the Brexit plan again? Yeeees. Will have to get back to you on that one.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
NN writes: Unlikely that a substantial number of financial folks will move over the next decade or so? I think it is too early to tell. A lot will, but so far, it's much less than was expected. 10 years? Well who knows?
That's what the rational minds are saying, but it wasn't the rational minds who wanted out of the EU. If the freedom of movement gets downplayed isn't that just going to make folks angry again? It'll certainly make a lot of people very unhappy. Whether that matters or not depends whether we're also in the middle of a raging recession with high unemployment or doing ok actually. Otherwise it's riots. Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
There's no appetite in Scotland for another referendum, if they called one now they'd just lose again. Not only that, oil prices have plummeted since the referendum and it's now impossible for them to do it financially - it always was but now it's in their face obvious. She's blowing smoke.
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
ringo writes: caffeine writes:EU law can override national law... That's not strictly true, it's more complicated and subtle than that. This is the best way I've seen it described:
quote: The thing is, the Human Rights Act is a UK law, we adopted the European Convention on Human Rights into our own legislation in 1998 but we've been using it since 1950. It was introduced just after the war - for obvious reasons.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
ringo writes: It isn't just about Human Rights, though, is it? Nope, not just the HRA, but it's the HRA where most of the disagreements occur.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Diomedes writes: I think all the dialog around a potential 'hard Brexit' are likely driving this. Nope, her political oportunism is driving it. Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Diomedes writes: Main question now is what Theresa May will do.Ultimately, she has to approve another referendum. She could technically say 'no' but being brusque about it may not go over well with the Scottish people. She could quite fairly ask for evidence that the people support the idea of another referendum.
If she says 'yes', she may push for a timeframe that would have the independence vote occur after all the machinations from Brexit are completed. Will be curious to see how that will play out. There's no way she'll accept a referendum until after the Brexit deal - if then. The only case they have - if any - is that the Scots voted to stay in, and they can't know whether they want to stay until they've seen the final deal. And no one actually knows when the final deal is going to be signed. Rumour has it that the majority of the next 2 yeras will be spent trying to work out how the UK can be granted an extension.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Diomedes writes: Interesting gambit. I am guessing she is hoping the results solidify her position. Yup it's quite clever. She'll win with a big majority. She'll be able to control her party, cut the Scotts off at the pass, and strengthen her hand with Europe. No down side.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Meddle writes: Ahem... cut the scotts[sic] off at the pass? I'd be interested to know how you'd come to that conclusion. There's a very good chance that some otherwise SNP votes will go to the conservatives because the majority of Scots don't want to leave the Union and a million voted for Brexit. It's quite possible that they'll win a couple more seats and be able to say that there's a change away from the SNP. Sturgeon will also have to stop calling her unelected removing another whine.
She'd already argued for the council elections to make that arguement. It wouldn't be because the only reason May became tory leader was because she was the one holding the bag when everyone else bowed out? Yes, she's quite clever isn't she?
Also strengthen her hand with europe, when it's an internal constitutional matter? It's a negotiation. If she's elected with a large majority, whatever deal she does, she - and the EU - know that it can be delivered. It denies the EU a negotiation tactic. I've never voted conservative in my life, but I think I'll have to this time around.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
caffeine writes: What? Didn't you just explain why it would be a disaster if the Tories win a large majority? I don't believe so. But I think all of the alternatives are worse. I think we can trust this women to get a deal. After that god knows.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
caffeine writes: Theresa May is committed to ending what, to my mind, is the greatest acheivement of the European project - the free movement of labour. That and the rest. Our exit from the EU is a generational tragedy. Given the option, I would have voted for a EU federation. But that's not where we are now. Given that we're leaving, I want the best deal possible.
I do not want a Britain led to be May to have a strong negotiating hand. I would much prefer her weak and crippled by domestic dissension, if this would force her to concede this central point. Then we get stuffed. We've been dealt a shit hand, I think it wiser not to make it worse by revealing our cards.
I'm reluctantly thinking of voting Lib Dem, as support for Europe is their one coherent policy. A little like falling on your sword, I feel.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Meddle writes: Well there is a chance, although I wouldn't describe it as a good chance. For those who are opposed to another independence referendum once article 50 is concluded, they are as likely to vote for Labour as conservative. But then how to define a shift away from SNP policy? It's quite likely that a couple of seats will change. That's all it takes for May to say that the SNP's position is not wholeheartedly supported by the Scottish electorate.
She seems intent on unilaterally acting on her own views of brexit which appears to be single-minded ending of freedom of movement, regardless of the costs. I don't think we know anything about what her views are yet. I think she's being extremely clever about that. She's spending most of her time shoring up her negotiating position. But restricting freedom of movement is a given. There's really no point hoping that any negotiations will give that away - there'd be a public lynching.
Instead her manoeuvring so far, even before negotiations have begun, have served to only harden the resolve of the 27 EU states. This will go back and forward for years but there's really nothing whatsoever to be gained by allowing your opponents to know that the guy/gal on the other side of the table is in a politically weak position. It doesn't matter what the otherside think of it.Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
God only knows what was on our minds. My own take on it is the the youth vote absented itself at the Brexit vote, noticed that they'd got something they didn't want and turned out in force at the election to attempt to reverse it or at least get something they approve of.
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
With a bit of luck, they'll say, 'bugger it, it's too hard' and call it off.
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona "Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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