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Author Topic:   The 2016 United States Presidential Election
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1404 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 151 of 892 (793211)
10-24-2016 9:17 AM
Reply to: Message 135 by caffeine
10-23-2016 6:43 AM


Re: Gerrymandering solution?
You have a bicameral legislature.
Elect one house by proportional representation; thus ensuring the representation of minority views and allowing viewpoints which are widely spread across the country but lack any geographical stronghold to be represented.
Pick representatives by lottery. Everyone that files income tax and is not in jail is eligible.
Elect the other house by single-member districts, thus ensuring that there are representatives tied to specific communities
We call those "senators" - they represent their state. Use instant runoff voting eliminating candidates with the least votes until you have two winners.
Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 152 of 892 (793212)
10-24-2016 9:19 AM
Reply to: Message 148 by AZPaul3
10-24-2016 8:30 AM


AZPaul3 writes:
Trump may get 40% of the popular vote...
I think Pressie meant that polls underestimated the Trump vote in the primaries, and that polls might again be underestimating the Trump vote in the general election. That would mean Trump's 45% could actually be 50%, not 40%.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 148 by AZPaul3, posted 10-24-2016 8:30 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 153 by Diomedes, posted 10-24-2016 9:44 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 153 of 892 (793214)
10-24-2016 9:44 AM
Reply to: Message 152 by Percy
10-24-2016 9:19 AM


I think Pressie meant that polls underestimated the Trump vote in the primaries, and that polls might again be underestimating the Trump vote in the general election. That would mean Trump's 45% could actually be 50%, not 40%.
I don't think the polls actually underestimated the Trump vote in the primaries. I think that the pundits just underestimated Trump. He always seemed to poll at the 30% mark in the primaries, but because there were so many other candidates in the field, their votes got diluted. Trump was merely the loudest voice in the room.
But in the general election, where substance carries more weight than bravado, Trump is now starting to crumble. He has a massive gap with women; larger than any other candidate in modern history. He has alienated every minority on the planet. And even among men, he only polls well with non-college educated white men. College educated men side with Hillary.
FYI, the latest from Real Clear Politics show Hillary with a decisive advantage right now:
realclearpolitics.com
She currently has 262 electoral votes basically sewn up. These are states where the polls indicate a decisive lead for her outside the margin of error. In fact, based on the current polling and the trends in other states, she only has to win Minnesota to win the presidency.

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Replies to this message:
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


(1)
Message 154 of 892 (793216)
10-24-2016 9:54 AM
Reply to: Message 152 by Percy
10-24-2016 9:19 AM


If The Donald is going to reach that elusive under-40% mark he is going to have to try a bit harder. He seems well on his way there and with some additional effort he can succeed. I have confidence in his intellectual ability to reach this level. The question comes down to just how stupid is the general electorate. If the great body politic of this nation hasn't totally fallen over the edge and retains at least some political reason then we may be able to help Trump attain a great record in electoral history. Reality says he may actually get some 100-130+- electoral votes, but, as I said, with an additional push, he is within striking distance of the McGovern record.
A major problem looms in the future, however. The Republicans have this annoying habit of trying to double-down on the insanity of their offerings these past few election cycles. How much lower can they go? 2020 scares me.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 152 by Percy, posted 10-24-2016 9:19 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 156 by RAZD, posted 10-24-2016 10:25 AM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied
 Message 157 by Percy, posted 10-24-2016 10:40 AM AZPaul3 has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1404 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 155 of 892 (793217)
10-24-2016 10:03 AM
Reply to: Message 150 by Percy
10-24-2016 9:15 AM


Re: Gerrymandering solution?
These types of goals often require voting against one's best economic interests because they require higher taxes. ...
I would argue that they may have short term effect on personal economics, but that they would fuel economic growth that would more than offset this short term sacrifice -- a higher tax on a higher income so that disposable income is still greater.
Give that homeless person a job and a place to live and he will be adding to the economy rather than taking from it.
I would also argue that we pay one way or another and the choice is how we want to pay for it -- higher wages for low income earners or food stamps to provide them with a living income?
enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 150 by Percy, posted 10-24-2016 9:15 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1404 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 156 of 892 (793218)
10-24-2016 10:25 AM
Reply to: Message 154 by AZPaul3
10-24-2016 9:54 AM


... The question comes down to just how stupid is the general electorate. ...
I think we need to be careful not to accept the media portrayal of Trump supporters. The reason he kept surprising them in the primaries was because they got it wrong from the start and have not reevaluated their position.
An interesting read is: How Half Of America Lost Its F**king Mind :
quote:
It's Not About Red And Blue States -- It's About The Country Vs. The City
... a "blue" state -- Illinois -- but the state isn't blue. Freaking Chicago is blue. ...
The Rural Areas Have Been Beaten To Shit
I know the changes were for the best.
Try telling that to anybody who lives in Trump country.
Hard to be thrilled about Clinton when your Trump sign is the most valuable thing you own.
They're getting the shit kicked out of them. I know, I was there. Step outside of the city, and the suicide rate among young people fucking doubles. The recession pounded rural communities, but all the recovery went to the cities. The rate of new businesses opening in rural areas has utterly collapsed.
If you don't live in one of these small towns, you can't understand the hopelessness. The vast majority of possible careers involve moving to the city, and around every city is now a hundred-foot wall called "Cost of Living." Let's say you're a smart kid making $8 an hour at Walgreen's and aspire to greater things. Fine, get ready to move yourself and your new baby into a 700-square-foot apartment for $1,200 a month, and to then pay double what you're paying now for utilities, groceries, and babysitters. ...
Assholes Are Heroes
You've never rooted for somebody like that? Someone powerful who gives your enemies the insults they deserve? Somebody with big fun appetites who screws up just enough to make them relatable? Like Dr. House or Walter White? Or any of the several million renegade cop characters who can break all the rules because they get shit done? Who only get shit done because they don't care about the rules?
It feels good to dismiss people, to mock them, to write them off as deplorables. But you might as well take time to try to understand them, because I'm telling you, they'll still be around long after Trump is gone.
Hit hard by the recession and the bank mortgage collapse, never saw a dime of the bail-out or the recovery, all the recovery and job growth was in the cities. They are the left out and the let down -- by both parties.
A number of Bernie supporters also came from this group of people, and this article explains how someone can switch from Bernie to Trump, because the democrats are to busy becoming the new republican party to pay attention to the people.
... The question comes down to just how stupid is the general electorate. ...
It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the democrat party is not going to help these people -- they blame Obama for the last 8 years, where all they got was having to pay more for insurance - in their opinion.
Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 154 by AZPaul3, posted 10-24-2016 9:54 AM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 161 by Percy, posted 10-24-2016 11:16 AM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 157 of 892 (793219)
10-24-2016 10:40 AM
Reply to: Message 154 by AZPaul3
10-24-2016 9:54 AM


What a friend said he liked about Trump
A friend recently said he liked Trump because he would stand up to other world powers and wouldn't be afraid to push the nuclear button. He's attracted to Trump for the same things that terrify me.
Friends stay friends by not dwelling on issues they disagree about, so the conversation quickly moved on, but this again makes me wonder how informed could the support for Trump possibly be? Has everyone already seen this Clinton ad (it's only 30 seconds, anyone who hasn't seen it should watch it):
That's the question: How can anyone trust someone of Trump's impulsivity, recklessness and manipulative talents with our nuclear arsenal?
Yet that's precisely what some people like about him. They see Trump as saying to the world, "Give us what we want or we'll fire nuclear missiles at you," and to them this is a good thing. They seem unaware of the endless anguish the US has experienced and continues to experience over whether we should have dropped nuclear bombs on Japanese cities (despite that it was an expansionist evil empire that was committing atrocities on a scale second only to the Nazis), of the terrible suffering that would be caused by nuclear attacks, of the international repercussions and our much diminished reputation, of the impossibility of ruling a world by force for any length of time, of the immense harm it would do to the world politically and economically, of even the connected world where the fallout from our own nuclear attacks would eventually reach our own shores. Our air and missile weapons are in the 100 to 1000 kiloton range, while Little Boy and Fat Man were only 10-15 kilotons.
There is nothing to like about nuclear war, and sometimes I wonder if Trump supporters understand that.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 154 by AZPaul3, posted 10-24-2016 9:54 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 158 by 1.61803, posted 10-24-2016 10:56 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 159 by vimesey, posted 10-24-2016 11:13 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 160 by RAZD, posted 10-24-2016 11:15 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 166 by AZPaul3, posted 10-24-2016 4:32 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 197 by Hyroglyphx, posted 10-26-2016 12:22 AM Percy has replied

  
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1503 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 158 of 892 (793220)
10-24-2016 10:56 AM
Reply to: Message 157 by Percy
10-24-2016 10:40 AM


Re: What a friend said he liked about Trump
Percy writes:
There is nothing to like about nuclear war, and sometimes I wonder if Trump supporters understand that.
Sadly it is either hyperbole or full on ignorance. Either way it is crazy to think someone would CHOOSE nuclear war.
As crazy as Trump is I think some of his supporters are even crazier imo.
Edited by 1.61803, : No reason given.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
 Message 157 by Percy, posted 10-24-2016 10:40 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
vimesey
Member
Posts: 1398
From: Birmingham, England
Joined: 09-21-2011


(3)
Message 159 of 892 (793223)
10-24-2016 11:13 AM
Reply to: Message 157 by Percy
10-24-2016 10:40 AM


Re: What a friend said he liked about Trump
There is nothing to like about nuclear war, and sometimes I wonder if Trump supporters understand that.
Year on year, decade after decade, our societies have pandered more and more to the lowest common denominator. Aspiration for education, a better life for you and your children, a more fulfilling existence has been replaced with the simple sell of the quick buck and the easy gratification of our simplest desires. Because that's where the greatest and easiest corporate profit lies.
And now we reap what we sow. The lowest common denominator has been led to believe that simplicity and stupidity is a path to happiness - and they are beating that path in a terrifying manner.
If you do manage to defeat Trump this time out, and I dearly hope you do, the first order of business is to work out how to reach out to his support base, and bring at least some of them back to a sane place. At some point, having ignored them, we will end up in a world of hurt.
Off-topic, but this is how I see the Brexit result coming to pass. I really hope you can avoid our mistake.

Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?

This message is a reply to:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1404 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 160 of 892 (793224)
10-24-2016 11:15 AM
Reply to: Message 157 by Percy
10-24-2016 10:40 AM


Re: What a friend said he liked about Trump
There is nothing to like about nuclear war, and sometimes I wonder if Trump supporters understand that.
What disturbs me is that many people don't think atom bombs are that big a deal, they are just bombs, they blow up a large area and that is it.
There are long term effects that would create Chernobyl zones around the blasts making them uninhabitable, and with several hundred bombs in the 5 minutes of such a war (with existing warheads primed and ready to launch) you could "win" the war and lose civilization.
The ad does not go far enough to discuss the consequences of such a war.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 157 by Percy, posted 10-24-2016 10:40 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(3)
Message 161 of 892 (793225)
10-24-2016 11:16 AM
Reply to: Message 156 by RAZD
10-24-2016 10:25 AM


I want to encourage people to read this incredibly entertaining and insightful link RAZD posted: How Half Of America Lost Its F**king Mind. I think the last line is especially good advice:
quote:
It feels good to dismiss people, to mock them, to write them off as deplorables. But you might as well take time to try to understand them, because I'm telling you, they'll still be around long after Trump is gone.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 156 by RAZD, posted 10-24-2016 10:25 AM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 162 by NoNukes, posted 10-24-2016 1:51 PM Percy has replied

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 162 of 892 (793241)
10-24-2016 1:51 PM
Reply to: Message 161 by Percy
10-24-2016 11:16 AM


want to encourage people to read this incredibly entertaining and insightful link RAZD posted:
I'm curious about how folks take on this article. My own impression as someone who has lived in urban areas since the age of 7, is that the writer's view of city folks is hopelessly incorrect. I was hoping for an insightful view of the distinction between city and country, but I am left wondering just how good a picture the article paints when it generalizes about cities so much until its position is nigh onto worthless.
If anything, I am less sympathetic to the author's view point than I was before reading the article.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)
History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King
I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson
Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 161 by Percy, posted 10-24-2016 11:16 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 164 by Theodoric, posted 10-24-2016 3:36 PM NoNukes has not replied
 Message 167 by Percy, posted 10-24-2016 4:47 PM NoNukes has replied

  
xongsmith
Member
Posts: 2578
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 6.8


(1)
Message 163 of 892 (793246)
10-24-2016 3:00 PM
Reply to: Message 150 by Percy
10-24-2016 9:15 AM


Re: Gerrymandering solution?
Percy writes:
It means I must make the choice that makes it least likely that Trump will win, which here in New Hampshire means voting for Hillary Clinton.
and give her a Senate too! In New Hampshire you can vote for Maggie Hassan down ticket.

- xongsmith, 5.7d

This message is a reply to:
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Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9076
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 164 of 892 (793251)
10-24-2016 3:36 PM
Reply to: Message 162 by NoNukes
10-24-2016 1:51 PM


The article is simplistic bullshit. This is the classic attempt to make a very complicated subject black and white. Case in point.
quote:
The blue parts, however, are more densely populated -- they're the cities.
Evidently this guy has never been to Northern MN, WI, or Maine, NH and Vermont. Since when is CO primarily cities?
The article is worthless because the basic premise is bullshit.

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Taq
Member
Posts: 9970
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.6


(3)
Message 165 of 892 (793252)
10-24-2016 4:16 PM
Reply to: Message 153 by Diomedes
10-24-2016 9:44 AM


Diomedes writes:
But in the general election, where substance carries more weight than bravado, Trump is now starting to crumble.
Trump could have been the same loudmouth and lost the Democratic primary running on a Democratic platform. Only Republicans put value in the simple ability of insulting the other party. Democrats actually expect policies.
I think this is really the story for the election. The Republicans elected a nominee based solely on his ability to insult other people. That is what their party has become. That is what their news channel is. That is what their talk radio is. That is all they have done in Congress for the last 8 years. No policies. No vision. Just insults.
Fox News isn't going to change. Alt-right media isn't going to change. Right leaning radio isn't going to change. In 4 years we will see a candidate who knows what to do: insult people non-stop.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 153 by Diomedes, posted 10-24-2016 9:44 AM Diomedes has not replied

  
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