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Author | Topic: The 2016 United States Presidential Election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
You have a bicameral legislature. Elect one house by proportional representation; thus ensuring the representation of minority views and allowing viewpoints which are widely spread across the country but lack any geographical stronghold to be represented. Pick representatives by lottery. Everyone that files income tax and is not in jail is eligible.
Elect the other house by single-member districts, thus ensuring that there are representatives tied to specific communities We call those "senators" - they represent their state. Use instant runoff voting eliminating candidates with the least votes until you have two winners. Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Percy Member Posts: 22392 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.3
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AZPaul3 writes: Trump may get 40% of the popular vote... I think Pressie meant that polls underestimated the Trump vote in the primaries, and that polls might again be underestimating the Trump vote in the general election. That would mean Trump's 45% could actually be 50%, not 40%. --Percy
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Diomedes Member Posts: 995 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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I think Pressie meant that polls underestimated the Trump vote in the primaries, and that polls might again be underestimating the Trump vote in the general election. That would mean Trump's 45% could actually be 50%, not 40%. I don't think the polls actually underestimated the Trump vote in the primaries. I think that the pundits just underestimated Trump. He always seemed to poll at the 30% mark in the primaries, but because there were so many other candidates in the field, their votes got diluted. Trump was merely the loudest voice in the room. But in the general election, where substance carries more weight than bravado, Trump is now starting to crumble. He has a massive gap with women; larger than any other candidate in modern history. He has alienated every minority on the planet. And even among men, he only polls well with non-college educated white men. College educated men side with Hillary. FYI, the latest from Real Clear Politics show Hillary with a decisive advantage right now: realclearpolitics.com She currently has 262 electoral votes basically sewn up. These are states where the polls indicate a decisive lead for her outside the margin of error. In fact, based on the current polling and the trends in other states, she only has to win Minnesota to win the presidency.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8513 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 5.3
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If The Donald is going to reach that elusive under-40% mark he is going to have to try a bit harder. He seems well on his way there and with some additional effort he can succeed. I have confidence in his intellectual ability to reach this level. The question comes down to just how stupid is the general electorate. If the great body politic of this nation hasn't totally fallen over the edge and retains at least some political reason then we may be able to help Trump attain a great record in electoral history. Reality says he may actually get some 100-130+- electoral votes, but, as I said, with an additional push, he is within striking distance of the McGovern record.
A major problem looms in the future, however. The Republicans have this annoying habit of trying to double-down on the insanity of their offerings these past few election cycles. How much lower can they go? 2020 scares me.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
These types of goals often require voting against one's best economic interests because they require higher taxes. ... I would argue that they may have short term effect on personal economics, but that they would fuel economic growth that would more than offset this short term sacrifice -- a higher tax on a higher income so that disposable income is still greater. Give that homeless person a job and a place to live and he will be adding to the economy rather than taking from it. I would also argue that we pay one way or another and the choice is how we want to pay for it -- higher wages for low income earners or food stamps to provide them with a living income? enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
... The question comes down to just how stupid is the general electorate. ... I think we need to be careful not to accept the media portrayal of Trump supporters. The reason he kept surprising them in the primaries was because they got it wrong from the start and have not reevaluated their position. An interesting read is: How Half Of America Lost Its F**king Mind :
quote: Hit hard by the recession and the bank mortgage collapse, never saw a dime of the bail-out or the recovery, all the recovery and job growth was in the cities. They are the left out and the let down -- by both parties. A number of Bernie supporters also came from this group of people, and this article explains how someone can switch from Bernie to Trump, because the democrats are to busy becoming the new republican party to pay attention to the people.
... The question comes down to just how stupid is the general electorate. ... It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the democrat party is not going to help these people -- they blame Obama for the last 8 years, where all they got was having to pay more for insurance - in their opinion. Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Percy Member Posts: 22392 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.3
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A friend recently said he liked Trump because he would stand up to other world powers and wouldn't be afraid to push the nuclear button. He's attracted to Trump for the same things that terrify me.
Friends stay friends by not dwelling on issues they disagree about, so the conversation quickly moved on, but this again makes me wonder how informed could the support for Trump possibly be? Has everyone already seen this Clinton ad (it's only 30 seconds, anyone who hasn't seen it should watch it):
That's the question: How can anyone trust someone of Trump's impulsivity, recklessness and manipulative talents with our nuclear arsenal? Yet that's precisely what some people like about him. They see Trump as saying to the world, "Give us what we want or we'll fire nuclear missiles at you," and to them this is a good thing. They seem unaware of the endless anguish the US has experienced and continues to experience over whether we should have dropped nuclear bombs on Japanese cities (despite that it was an expansionist evil empire that was committing atrocities on a scale second only to the Nazis), of the terrible suffering that would be caused by nuclear attacks, of the international repercussions and our much diminished reputation, of the impossibility of ruling a world by force for any length of time, of the immense harm it would do to the world politically and economically, of even the connected world where the fallout from our own nuclear attacks would eventually reach our own shores. Our air and missile weapons are in the 100 to 1000 kiloton range, while Little Boy and Fat Man were only 10-15 kilotons. There is nothing to like about nuclear war, and sometimes I wonder if Trump supporters understand that. --Percy
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1.61803 Member (Idle past 1504 days) Posts: 2928 From: Lone Star State USA Joined: |
Percy writes: There is nothing to like about nuclear war, and sometimes I wonder if Trump supporters understand that. Sadly it is either hyperbole or full on ignorance. Either way it is crazy to think someone would CHOOSE nuclear war. As crazy as Trump is I think some of his supporters are even crazier imo. Edited by 1.61803, : No reason given."You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs
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vimesey Member Posts: 1398 From: Birmingham, England Joined:
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There is nothing to like about nuclear war, and sometimes I wonder if Trump supporters understand that. Year on year, decade after decade, our societies have pandered more and more to the lowest common denominator. Aspiration for education, a better life for you and your children, a more fulfilling existence has been replaced with the simple sell of the quick buck and the easy gratification of our simplest desires. Because that's where the greatest and easiest corporate profit lies. And now we reap what we sow. The lowest common denominator has been led to believe that simplicity and stupidity is a path to happiness - and they are beating that path in a terrifying manner. If you do manage to defeat Trump this time out, and I dearly hope you do, the first order of business is to work out how to reach out to his support base, and bring at least some of them back to a sane place. At some point, having ignored them, we will end up in a world of hurt. Off-topic, but this is how I see the Brexit result coming to pass. I really hope you can avoid our mistake.Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined:
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There is nothing to like about nuclear war, and sometimes I wonder if Trump supporters understand that. What disturbs me is that many people don't think atom bombs are that big a deal, they are just bombs, they blow up a large area and that is it. There are long term effects that would create Chernobyl zones around the blasts making them uninhabitable, and with several hundred bombs in the 5 minutes of such a war (with existing warheads primed and ready to launch) you could "win" the war and lose civilization. The ad does not go far enough to discuss the consequences of such a war. by our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Percy Member Posts: 22392 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.3
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I want to encourage people to read this incredibly entertaining and insightful link RAZD posted: How Half Of America Lost Its F**king Mind. I think the last line is especially good advice:
quote: --Percy
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
want to encourage people to read this incredibly entertaining and insightful link RAZD posted: I'm curious about how folks take on this article. My own impression as someone who has lived in urban areas since the age of 7, is that the writer's view of city folks is hopelessly incorrect. I was hoping for an insightful view of the distinction between city and country, but I am left wondering just how good a picture the article paints when it generalizes about cities so much until its position is nigh onto worthless. If anything, I am less sympathetic to the author's view point than I was before reading the article. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith
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xongsmith Member Posts: 2578 From: massachusetts US Joined: Member Rating: 6.8
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Percy writes:
It means I must make the choice that makes it least likely that Trump will win, which here in New Hampshire means voting for Hillary Clinton. and give her a Senate too! In New Hampshire you can vote for Maggie Hassan down ticket.- xongsmith, 5.7d
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9076 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.7 |
The article is simplistic bullshit. This is the classic attempt to make a very complicated subject black and white. Case in point.
quote:Evidently this guy has never been to Northern MN, WI, or Maine, NH and Vermont. Since when is CO primarily cities? The article is worthless because the basic premise is bullshit. Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.
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Taq Member Posts: 9973 Joined: Member Rating: 5.7
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Diomedes writes: But in the general election, where substance carries more weight than bravado, Trump is now starting to crumble. Trump could have been the same loudmouth and lost the Democratic primary running on a Democratic platform. Only Republicans put value in the simple ability of insulting the other party. Democrats actually expect policies. I think this is really the story for the election. The Republicans elected a nominee based solely on his ability to insult other people. That is what their party has become. That is what their news channel is. That is what their talk radio is. That is all they have done in Congress for the last 8 years. No policies. No vision. Just insults. Fox News isn't going to change. Alt-right media isn't going to change. Right leaning radio isn't going to change. In 4 years we will see a candidate who knows what to do: insult people non-stop.
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