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Author Topic:   The Dunning–Kruger effect
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 1 of 30 (795070)
12-05-2016 12:42 PM


quote:
The Dunning—Kruger effect
The Dunning—Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which an unskilled person makes poor decisions and arrives at erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to realize their mistakes. The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, ...
... while the highly skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. This leads to the perverse situation in which less competent people rate their own ability higher than more competent people.* It also explains why actual competence may weaken self-confidence: because competent individuals falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.
Similar notions have been expressed—albeit less scientifically—for some time. Dunning and Kruger themselves quote Charles Darwin (Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge) and Bertrand Russell (One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.). ... Similar notions have been expressed—albeit less scientifically—for some time. Dunning and Kruger themselves quote Charles Darwin (Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge) and Bertrand Russell (One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.).
All politicians fall into this to different degrees, one need only look and the DNC and Democratic Party leadership to see their incomprehension of their faults in the last election, ... Clinton, Pelosi, Wasserman-Schultz, etc etc etc ...
... but Donald Trump is the new poster child of this effect.
Enjoy
{Note from Adminnemooseus - There is a small existing topic that will be supplanted by the new topic.}
Edited by Adminnemooseus, : Note.
Edited by RAZD, : * strike through inaccurate statement in article

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 4 of 30 (795092)
12-06-2016 6:46 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by caffeine
12-06-2016 4:04 AM


competence vs opinion of competence.
Thanks for the correction.
Let me put it this way then:
Everyone thinks they are above average in competence, but the average Joe has less competence than they think they have.
People in the lowest quartile (highly incompetent) have the most highly inflated opinion of their competence, while people in the highest quartile (highly competent) have a slightly depressed opinion of their competence (unless they are Sheldon Cooper).
Edited by RAZD, : .

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 5 of 30 (795101)
12-06-2016 9:43 AM


Picking advisors ...
Message 1: All politicians fall into this to different degrees, one need only look and the DNC and Democratic Party leadership to see their incomprehension of their faults in the last election, ... Clinton, Pelosi, Wasserman-Schultz, etc etc etc ...
... but Donald Trump is the new poster child of this effect.
Message 4: Everyone thinks they are above average in competence, but the average Joe has less competence than they think they have.
People in the lowest quartile (highly incompetent) have the most highly inflated opinion of their competence, ...
So is it possible for an incompetent person to consistently pick competent people as advisors?
Enjoy

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 9 of 30 (795250)
12-09-2016 12:03 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by 1.61803
12-06-2016 10:03 AM


Re: Picking advisors ...
RAZD writes:
So is it possible for an incompetent person to consistently pick competent people as advisors?
One can only hope at this point. I am not to happy about seeing Rudolph Guiliani in contention for Sec State.
Or Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney ...
Certainly the list of bad picks is growing.
quote:
Trump's cabinet picks: here are all of the appointments so far
... here’s who Trump has appointed so far
Defense
James N Mattis, 66, ... Has called for a new security architecture for the Mideast built on sound policy Nicknamed Mad Dog. Read further
Homeland security
John F Kelly, 66, ... (was) commander of the US southern command, a role in which he was responsible for US military activities and relationships in Latin America and the Caribbean, including the controversial detention facility at Guantnamo Bay. ... Read further
CIA director
Mike Pompeo, 52, ... After the Boston Marathon bombings in 2013, Pompeo falsely claimed that US Muslim organisations and religious leaders had not condemned terrorism. He called those at the CIA who participated in torture heroes, ... Opponent of closing the detention facility at Guantnamo Bay, a vocal critic of the Iran nuclear deal and a supporter of NSA bulk data collection. Has called for the traitor Edward Snowden to be executed. Read further
Treasury
Steven Mnuchin, 53, campaign finance chairman. Former Goldman Sachs, hedge funder and Hollywood producer ... Swooped on doomed IndyMac bank as it sunk in the 2008 housing crash, acquired it and scored when the federal government bailed out the bank. They call him the foreclosure king. ... Announced he would oversee the largest tax change since Reagan and said his No 1 priority is tax reform.Read further
Attorney general
Jeff Sessions, 69, ... An immigration hardliner who was an early Trump adopter, becoming the first senator to back the eventual winner. Sessions’ last confirmation hearing, for a federal judgeship under Ronald Reagan in 1986, was derailed when former colleagues testified that he used the N-word, called a black assistant US attorney boy and joked that he thought the Ku Klux Klan were OK until I found out they smoked pot. Has emphasised law and order, seen by some liberals as a coded phrase for discriminatory policing of minorities.
Read further
Labor
Andrew F Puzder, 66, restaurant executive operating fast-food chains including Carl’s Jr and Hardee’s. Vehement critic of government regulation and staunch opponent of minimum wage laws and the Fight for $15 movement. Blames Obamacare for increased labor costs and has diagnosed a government-mandated restaurant recession. Read further
Health and human services
Tom Price, 62, six-term Republican congressman from Georgia. Orthopedic surgeon staunchly opposed to Obamacare. Became chair of the House budget committee in 2015. Attempted in 2015 to defund Planned Parenthood through a budget maneuver. Seen as opponent of women’s health programs. Described as having a 100% pro-life record. Read further
Housing and urban development
Ben Carson, 65, ... a critic of government welfare, has called for private charities to shoulder welfare needs. ... no government experience. A purveyor of bizarre conspiracy theories and a provocateur who compares abortion to slavery and same-sex marriage to pedophilia. ... Read further
Environmental protection agency administrator
Scott Pruitt, 48, ... A climate change denier and longtime enemy of the EPA, whose rule he has called unlawful and overreaching. Part of legal action waged by 28 states against the EPA to halt the Clean Power Plan,... Environmental groups say that Pruitt has been a puppet of the fossil fuel industry. Read further
Commerce
Wilbur Ross, 79, billionaire investor known for aggressive moves to agglomerate and sell failing steel- and coal-industry interests. ... Dubbed a vulture and king of bankruptcy because of his knack for extracting a profit from failing businesses. Helped Trump keep control of his failing Taj Mahal casino in the 1990s by persuading investors not to push him out. An explosion at a mine in West Virginia, which his company had bought a few weeks earlier, killed 12 miners in 2002. Read further
Transportation
Elaine Chao, 63, former secretary of labor and deputy secretary of transportation. Married to the senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell. Daughter of a shipping magnate, she made more than $1m from serving on the boards of News Corp, Wells Fargo, Ingersoll Rand and Vulcan Materials in 2015, public records show. Read further
US ambassador to the UN
Nikki Haley, 44, governor of South Carolina. ... Fluctuating popularity. Praised for signing legislation to remove the Confederate battle flag from the grounds of the state capitol and for leadership after 2015 mass shooting at a historic African American church in Charleston. Endorsed Marco Rubio in the Republican primaries and jabbed at Trump in a reply to the State of the Union address she delivered for the Republican party in January 2016. Read further
Education
Betsy DeVos, education secretary. Daughter-in-law of Richard DeVos, co-founder of marketing company Amway. The family has a net worth of $5.1bn, according to Forbes. Her lobbying for school vouchers has been criticised for undermining public sector schools (which critics note neither she nor her children attended). DeVos’s brother is Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater, a private security contractor notorious for its lucrative and deadly role in the Iraq war. Read further
Cabinet-level jobs not requiring confirmation
National security adviser
Michael Flynn, 57, ... A close Trump adviser known for his scandalously broad-brush criticism of Islam and flirtation with conspiracy theories. A vocal critic of the Obama administration. Flynn has falsely claimed that Sharia law is spreading across the US and that the nation is in the midst of a world war with radical Islamists. Fear of Muslims is RATIONAL, he tweeted earlier this year. Son recently booted from the Trump transition team after tweeting credulously about fake news. Read further
Chief of staff
Reince Priebus, 44, chairman of the Republican national committee. Wisconsin native and a steady hand when things get weird. Once criticized for a failure to stand up to Trump, in retrospect praised for winning over his party’s insurgent and ascendant president-elect. It’s pronounced Rynz like pints or Eins and Pree-bus Read further
Chief strategist
Steve Bannon, 63, campaign CEO, former chairman of Breitbart News. Harvard, Goldman Sachs, documentary film-maker, and Seinfeld, of all things. Boasted that he made Breitbart the platform for the alt-right, in reference to the far-right movement in the US. His web site was a clearinghouse for hate speech of all kinds including white nationalism, anti-semitism, immigrant-hatred and misogyny. Seen as opponent of the institutional Republican party, a former sharp critic of House speaker Paul Ryan. Read further
A viper's nest of conspiracy nuts, islamophobic wingnuts and self-serving ideologs.
Oh and then there is ...
quote:
Linda McMahon picked to be Small Business administrator
President-elect Donald Trump picked Linda McMahon, former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, to serve as the administrator of the Small Business Administration, his transition announced Wednesday.
"Linda has a tremendous background and is widely recognized as one of the country's top female executives advising businesses around the globe," Trump said in a statement. "She helped grow WWE from a modest 13-person operation to a publicly traded global enterprise with more than 800 employees in offices worldwide."
He continued, "Linda is going to be a phenomenal leader and champion for small businesses and unleash America's entrepreneurial spirit all across the country."
Because small business is just like pro-wrestling ...
Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by AZPaul3, posted 12-10-2016 7:03 AM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 10 of 30 (795251)
12-09-2016 12:04 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by 1.61803
12-06-2016 10:03 AM


duped
duplicate
Edited by RAZD, : .

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by 1.61803, posted 12-06-2016 10:03 AM 1.61803 has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 12 of 30 (795261)
12-09-2016 8:17 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by xongsmith
12-09-2016 2:35 PM


Re: Picking advisors ...
And then there is 7 of 9 ...

we are limited in our ability to understand
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 14 of 30 (795310)
12-10-2016 9:01 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by AZPaul3
12-10-2016 7:03 AM


oh no ... it's spreading ...
quote:
Outbreak of Dunning Kruger Disease spreads to all 50 states
The CDC and FDA have confirmed that there are now over 5 million confirmed cases of Dunning-Kruger Disease (DKD), with all 50 states reporting cases.
We regret to announce that all 50 states are now reporting several cases of DKD said CDC epidemiologist Mark Webber. DKD is characterized as expressing or believing that one has vast and expert knowledge in a subject which they actually do not. It most often presents in the fields of medicine and science.
There is currently no known cure for DKD, but scientists are hopeful with more education and isolation, it can be contained.
We haven’t seen this level of DKD since Jenny McCarthy started spreading her vaccine causes autism bullshit said Webber. I fear the DKD level will continue to rise as more and more people with DKD have access to the internet, as well as there being several celebrities with the disease.
Some say the worst part of DKD is that the carriers have no idea they are infected, nor how easily they can spread it to others.
Running double blind tests isn't working -- they started out in a blind.

we are limited in our ability to understand
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 15 of 30 (795313)
12-10-2016 9:55 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by AZPaul3
12-10-2016 7:03 AM


Secretary of State
quote:
Secretary of State Pick Cements Governance by Oil Industry, Says Science Group
President-elect Trump’s decision to nominate ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson for secretary of state is a grave error, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
Below is a statement by Ken Kimmell, president of UCS. Kimmell is also the former commissioner of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection and previous Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative board chair.
The nomination of ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson for secretary of state, coupled with that of Scott Pruitt for EPA, shows that President-elect Trump is creating a government of, by, and for the oil and gas industry. Never before have we seen such a concentration of extreme wealth and privilege in a single cabinet.
This position calls for someone able to put national security and the well-being of Americans first and foremost. But Tillerson’s close ties to President Putin and Russian oligarchs call into question his ability to deal firmly with Russia, which attempted to disrupt U.S. elections according to U.S. intelligence agencies.
O
M
G
The many little wars the US has been involved in for the last several decades have all been about oil ... just not so blatantly.

we are limited in our ability to understand
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 17 of 30 (795316)
12-10-2016 10:27 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by Coyote
12-10-2016 10:15 PM


Re: Secretary of State
Perhaps if we were able to build nuclear plants, like we used to do and like France still does, ...
But Germany and Japan have stopped doing ... wonder why? Perhaps it has to do with waste disposal and public safety issues.
Do you know what the hazards of nuclear generation are? Do you know more than the scientists in Germany and Japan? We are talking Dunning Kruger effect on this thread afterall ...
... we wouldn't need to rely so much on foreign oil.
Or we could put as much money into solar and wind power and eliminate the need for oil all together, growing hemp to make biofuel for portable energy. It's not rocket science, you can do it in your back yard: I have. I bet even a redneck can ... oh wait there are youtube videos of just this being done ...
The technology is there, the costs are virtually equivalent now and getting better and better for renewable energy.
My solar panels generate more electricity than I use and I haven't paid an electric bill since august 2015.
What's silly is to pursue oil and kill the planet in the process.
Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
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Replies to this message:
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 Message 21 by Modulous, posted 12-11-2016 10:15 AM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 19 of 30 (795330)
12-11-2016 8:15 AM
Reply to: Message 18 by Coyote
12-10-2016 10:32 PM


Re: Secretary of State
You'll have to show me the numbers on that.
Sorry, not on topic. Unless you can tie it to the Dunning-Kruger effect ...
Perhaps by referencing another paper like (I was searching for a previous thread on this off-topic issue and found this):
Climate Change is Real Message 3
AGW Bombshell? A new paper shows statistical tests for global warming fails to find statistically significantly anthropogenic forcing
AGW Bombshell? A new paper shows statistical tests for global warming fails to find statistically significant anthropogenic forcing – Watts Up With That?
... by three economists that clearly are not climatologists and have no clue about climate modeling, but that think they can pass expert critique on climate change because hey, they can do maths ...
... now that is a great example of DK effect, yes?
Enjoy

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(2)
Message 23 of 30 (795346)
12-11-2016 5:03 PM
Reply to: Message 21 by Modulous
12-11-2016 10:15 AM


Re: nuclear ignorance?
The politics of fear, Germany and Japan both faced huge public pressure after a second gen power station failed and a whole 600-1,000 people theoretically received lethal exposure and have or will die younger (about 20,000 died near immediately as a result of the actual natural disaster). It wasn't science that made the determination. Increasing your risk of radiation caused death from 0.75% to 1.25% is not good, but it's not so catastrophic that we should decide not to build Generation III plants - from a scientific point of view. That doesn't win votes, though.
Gosh, fear of accidents like have happened over and over and over? Cherynoble, 5 mile island, Fukushima are the ones we remember, fear of long term effects on people and their children?
Pardon me, but I think it is very reasonable to be wary of nuclear power because of its past failures. Especially when you have a better alternative.
Germany and Japan are committing to solar and wind etc generation because (a) it is economical and (b) there is low hazard potential
Yes, negligible.
(a) I don't read links that require me to turn off my ad-blocker -- it is there for a reason. I get enough garbage as it is.
(b) so I can't see the basis for your numbers. However, that did not stop me from looking myself:
quote:
Solar Energy Risks To Health
The health hazards associated with solar photovoltaic (PV) occurs before panels commissioned in the consumer’s home. ...
It is estimated that the health risks of solar energy associated with the production of solar panels per unit of energy can be between 11 and 21 deaths per quadrillion joules of energy produced.
One kilowatt-hour is 3.6 megajoules: so your "440 people die globally per trillion kWh" becomes 440 people per 3.6 trillion megajoules ...
... 122 people per trillion (10^9) million (10^6) ... or 122 people per 10^15 ... which happens to be a quadrillion (US), so your number here appears to be off by a factor of 10 or so, making my sources number less than your numbers for nuclear.
These deaths are also all solely in production and do not accumulate through the life of the panels, unlike fossil fuel and nuclear, and this means you need to look at the deaths over the lifetime of the panels and windmills, not just at the initial manufacture because those lifetime generations add to the kWh generated by the panels per death and would reduce the death-toll by another order of magnitude or more.
For instance, my panels should last 30 to 50 years with a small decline in output over the years. I also expect global warming to increase cloud cover in coming years. Then there would be the cost to dispose of the panels at the end of their life, so we can likely double the death-toll and be conservative. Still ahead, imho.
A similar lifetime analysis for nuclear generation and the billion year lifetime for the waste product would add to that number.
Of course the industry could switch to nuclear chains that do not create isotopes with extremely long half-lives, like Thorium 232
quote:
Beginning with naturally occurring thorium-232, this series includes the following elements: actinium, bismuth, lead, polonium, radium, radon and thallium. All are present, at least transiently, in any natural thorium-containing sample, whether metal, compound, or mineral. The series terminates with lead-208.
The total energy released from thorium-232 to lead-208, including the energy lost to neutrinos, is 42.6 MeV
Thorium is found naturally because, while it has a long half-life, the decay product half-lives are 5.7 years or less, so the eventual end of decay occurs relatively fast and thus relatively safe to dispose of at an earlier date. I was a fan in the 70's (when living in Toronto).
CANDU reactors are capable of using thorium,[34][35] and Thorium Power Canada has, in 2013, planned and proposed developing thorium power projects for Chile and Indonesia.[36]
Seems to me using the Thorium 232 decay chain would vastly reduce the health and safety risk of nuclear power.
Similar numbers have been derived by others.
And probably equally prone to comparing apples and oranges. Did you check them?
Curiously, I don't doubt that the oil and nuclear industries gather all kinds of information suited to Forbes (business) type reporting to promote nuclear business and oil business.
Are you under the impression you know more than you actually do?
You tell me, I have followed nuclear generation for several decades and have not seen any significant change, while there has been massive growth and development in wind and solar. Growth and development that will continue to improve product production and safety.
Are you saying that scientists in Germany and Japan set energy policy, based on science rather than politicians based on votes?
That sounds like you think you know more about German and Japanese politics than you actually do.
My question was not regarding the politics. It is the scientist and design engineers duty to show risk at a politically acceptable level. This is true of any product or construction.
The other parameter to evaluate is distribution (and the cost in health and death associated with that), as nuclear (and coal and natural gas) generating plants are highly concentrated installations generating massive voltage, while my installation peaks at 240 VAC and is distributed by a cable that runs from the roof to the basement. A distributed system with solar generation at or near the end user means much more freedom to access power anywhere you want. This is why solar installations are making huge headway in developing countries, places that just cannot be economically supplied by nuclear power.
Well there is a supply issue, right? There are lots more dead things that became fossil oil than living things that could become, with further processing, useable oil. I'm fine it - the UK has the top 3 largest biomass-electricity plants in the world. In fact Drax is the largest plant in Europe, and provides us with 5-10% of our power.
Of course, we have to import all that biomass (it's wood, incidentally) from other countries - and if those other countries followed our lead, we might not be able to do that....
Look into hemp, which is what I mentioned. Quick google:
Hemp Fuel Guide » Hemp Frontiers
Uses existing technology. Hemp grows faster than trees to produce the same energy, which of course is another method of converting solar energy into a usable product.
Did you ever investigate what happened to all the silicon tetrachloride that was produced to make your solar panels? In 2015, it was probably recycled, but it may still have been dumped. Even if you try other materials you still end having to use things like cadmium.
Still, it's difficult to get away from the dangers of hydrofluoric acid of which a LOT is used. It's possible to use other chemicals (which are themselves also toxic, but easier to handle) but business is business and low regulation nations are going to be able to sell their products cheaper.
Not worse than your standard computer and battery production and disposal is it? There are known risks that can involve standard operation procedures, typical of industry.
It should be pointed out that it can take about 2 years of continuous operation to pay back the energy needed to make solar panels. So assuming you installed them January 1st 2015, you're still several weeks from having saved the planet from anything.
Then there is amount of carbon pollution that occurs as a result of making them. Depending on where they were made you might not get a net carbon emission benefit until 2019.
Which I consider basically irrelevant, because all the costs\risks are up front and cease to accumulate once the panels are installed, unlike fossil fuel or nuclear generation.
Then you might consider possible damage caused by wind, rain and snow on your home; If a toxic chemical plant is hit by a natural disaster, that's an ecological disaster. If a toxic chemical transport ship has a spillage, it's an ecological disaster.
Like oil tankers and pipelines, they keep happening. But my panels, once installed, do not add to that risk nor experience it year after year.
This is all simplified, and it's certainly better than Coal and oil, but it's easy to think you know more than you do when the environmental costs are moved from the point of generation to point of manufacturing and maintenance.
I had a solar spill yesterday ... it was sunny all day. Wind rain and snow affect my house whether the panels are there or not -- they don't have any increased effect due to energy generation.
New technology developed every day takes care of your other concerns (new materials, simplified manufacturing), if it takes two years for payback that is a small drop in the bucket for the lifetime of the panels, something
So what about Nuclear Waste? It's incredibly compact and well contained, ...
And dangerous for billions of years? But there was a much more invasive way of using nuclear waste in Iraq with depleted uranium ammo ... one with long term effects for society there. You need to include that with your death count and your waste fields for solar panel materials.
... as opposed to just about all other toxic waste from all other methods. If we want to argue something like 'we can recycle waste products in solar power' then we can say the same for nuclear power only the improvements within our technological grasp are orders of magnitude greater.
Really? what's the waste product from my panels 5 years from now? 10 years? Does it have a half life?
Because of THE FEAR, nuclear waste is more heavily regulated and monitored than other waste. Unfortunately, that same fear means there is a lot of political stalemate over moving it around.
And I say it is legitimate wariness because accidents have happened and accidents will happen.
Curiously I regard this the same level of wariness as being around new toxic chemical plants and from industries like fracking and mining. Chemicals that can cause birth defects and poison people for years after it gets into the groundwater..
quote:
But when ingested (e.g. from ground water) it isn’t. According to the linear hypothesis, when consumed by a group of people, we expect about one extra cancer for each half-gram of plutonium swallowed. That is bad, but not a record-setter. Botulism toxin (found in poorly prepared mayonnaise) is a thousand times worse.
Wow. Just WOW. (to quote Faith).
I have cancer, and I would not wish that on one single person. That risk alone is reason enough for me to forego nuclear power.
Do you know more than most scientists?
And I haven't said that either.
Is your competence high enough to assess the facts correctly, or is your confidence a function of relative ignorance?
My competence is sufficient to recognize risks as listed and detailed by scientists, to understand them, and to decide when I don't want to take them, especially when there are alternatives without those risks.
Thank you for including the Dunning Kruger effect in your post, that made it more interesting.
Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
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This message is a reply to:
 Message 21 by Modulous, posted 12-11-2016 10:15 AM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 24 by Modulous, posted 12-11-2016 6:45 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
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