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Author Topic:   Fake polls, fake news
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(2)
Message 2 of 710 (799880)
02-17-2017 9:18 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Faith
02-17-2017 9:11 AM


That ratings are in the toilet is a lie. Fake news, fake polls, just as they did during the election campaigns, which is why it was such a shock to the left that Hillary lost. They are continuing with the same old game to try to make it look like Trump has lost favor. Twitter has been manipulated too so that only the negative responses to his tweets show up. You guys have no idea just how sneaky rotten your team is.
Agreed Rasmussen polls are entirely untrustworthy. So biased. Sad.
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 55 of 710 (799954)
02-18-2017 3:44 PM
Reply to: Message 52 by Faith
02-18-2017 2:55 PM


So then let's compare the methodology of both.
I believe Rasmussen,
Because they consistently track more conservative than other polls and are the outliers in compilations of polls.
quote:
Methodology
For tracking surveys such as the 14-survey Election 2004 Survey Package, the automated technology insures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time. A person taking our survey the week before the election will hear the exact same ballot question that another respondent heard six months earlier. this increases the reliability and comparative value of the tracking surveys.
The first step in any survey project is to design the study. For the Election 2004 Survey Package, we have designed a standard ballot portion of the survey including key demographics. Clients can add up to 10 custom questions per survey.
Following survey design, the Rasmussen Reports' questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation.
Sounds fair, but anyone who has done even a slight study of polling knows that the answers can be biased by the way the questions are asked and who gets asked. That's where the design of the study comes into play. They admit this:
quote:
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Some readers wonder how we come up with our job approval ratings for the president since they often don’t show as dramatic a change as some other pollsters do. It depends on how you ask the question and whom you ask.
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology).
Bold for emphasis on where bias can be inserted into the polls, either intentionally or unintentionally.
Curiously I am having trouble finding even sample questions ... and if we can't review the questions we can't judge if they pre-bias the answers.
quote:
Evaluations of accuracy and performance
Criticism
FiveThirtyEight blog
In 2010, Nate Silver of The New York Times’ blog FiveThirtyEight ... went on to explore other factors which may have explained the effect such as the use of a likely voter model,[74] and claimed that Rasmussen conducted its polls in a way that excluded the majority of the population from answering.[75]
After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.[64] ...
Obviously if you only ask likely republican voters or likely democrat voters the results will be different. If you ignore likely independent voters you are also building in a bias (democrats guilty here).
If you want to see how a badly (intentionally or not) designed survey uses highly biased questions see Mainstream Media Accountability Survey . Let me know if you don't see the bias.
Your turn.
Enjoy
Edited by RAZD, : No reason given.

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(2)
Message 58 of 710 (799957)
02-18-2017 4:11 PM
Reply to: Message 56 by Faith
02-18-2017 3:53 PM


As JonF said, I believe it because I like it; that is, my impression of how Trump is doing is a lot higher than Gallup's polled people, and my impression of the favorable comments on conservative talk shows is too-- ...
In other words you are only sampling a pro-Trump crowd and are amazed that they are pro-Trump. Fascinating.
Current estimates put that bubble population at 29% of the total American population.
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Replies to this message:
 Message 61 by Faith, posted 02-18-2017 4:42 PM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 77 of 710 (799978)
02-18-2017 5:54 PM
Reply to: Message 61 by Faith
02-18-2017 4:42 PM


Sorry it's only 26% of Americans voted for Trump
Oh SEE those "current estimates," what a JOKE. ...
Actually I was too high.
quote:
26 Percent of Eligible Voters Voted for Trump
According to the popular vote-count provided by The New York Times, Donald Trump, as of today, has received 59,705,000 votes. Hillary Clinton, who won the popular vote, but not the electoral college, has received 59,994,000 votes.
At the time of the election, it is estimated there were 231,556,000 eligible voters.
This means Trump won the electoral college with votes from approximately 26 percent of eligible voters. Hillary Clinton also received votes from approximately 26 percent of eligible voters. 48 percent of eligible voters, however, abstained from voting for either Trump or Clinton.
In other words, 74 percent of eligible voters did not vote for the winner.
So yes, the Trump bubble world is only 26% of America, people that actually support him. The really sad part, imho, is the number of people that did not vote - almost HALF of America basically saw no significant difference between Trump and Clinton. This is where Clinton lost.
In the Alt-Reality world of Trump and his simpering minions 26% is a massive majority win with a mandate to become dictator for life.
But even that is crumbling around the edges:
What??? Fox News criticizing the president for lying??? Are pigs flying???
quote:
'That's how dictators get started': John McCain rebukes Trump tweet
John McCain told an audience at a German conference Friday that President Donald Trump's administration is in "disarray" and has "a lot of work to do", NBC News reported.
Addressing a security conference in Munich, McCain, a known Trump critic, said that the resignation of the president's security adviser, Michael Flynn, showed deep problems rooted within the administration.
"The president, I think, makes statements [and] on other occasions contradicts himself. I'm just saying we need to learn the lessons of history", McCain said.
"They would be alarmed that more and more of our fellow citizens seem to be flirting with authoritarianism and romanticizing it as our moral equivalent", McCain added. The senator also regretted the "hardening resentment we see toward immigrants, and refugees, and minority groups, especially Muslims".
Amid his strong criticism for Trump and his willingness to distance America from worldwide involvement and agreements, McCain explained that not all the leaders from the White House share the same views. Again, without saying Trump's name, he took a jab at the President's chummy attitude toward Russian president Vladimir Putin and Trump's deliberate attacks on long-held worldwide agreements like North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Western countries still have the power to maintain world order, but they have to have the will to do it, he said, offering reasons for why that power has been slipping. Flynn resigned over his contacts with Russia and over allegations that he misled US Vice President Mike Pence regarding his conversations with Russian diplomats.
And he is not alone.
Now I am wondering how you will play conservative criticism of #Fake45 #PresidentPrevaricator
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 138 of 710 (800141)
02-20-2017 9:32 AM
Reply to: Message 106 by Faith
02-19-2017 12:53 PM


Re: Worship of Obama: yes it is
Well I thought this was creepy
and I believe they were stiffed by the Trump campaign for their modest costs. Another ode to the deal-maker who seems more adept at being the deal-breaker.
quote:
Those Freedom Kids Who Performed at a Donald Trump Rally Are About to Sue Him
Back in January, a trio of young girls known as the "USA Freedom Kids" performed at a Donald Trump rally in Pensacola, Florida. The routine, which involved the girls whirling in flashy American-flag dresses and singing a song that denounced the other presidential candidates as sworn enemies, was roundly mocked on social media, where viewers likened the video to performances honoring North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.
Now Jeff Popick, the creator behind the patriotic trio and father of the youngest member in the group, says he plans to sue Trump, alleging his campaign violated several verbal agreements and subsequently stiffed the group of proper monetary compensation.
But individual instances like these do not make a nation-wide program.
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Edited by RAZD, : .

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This message is a reply to:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 160 of 710 (800173)
02-20-2017 1:20 PM
Reply to: Message 158 by caffeine
02-20-2017 12:52 PM


Re: Poor sad England, poor sad Europe
Second, the counter-petition signed by 300,000:
quote:
Donald Trump should be invited to make an official State Visit because he is the leader of a free world and U.K. is a country that supports free speech and does not believe that people that appose our point of view should be gagged.
How does being declined an official state visit constrain his freedom of speech, especially in light of his (blackmail) request that Prince Charles not attend?
http://realtimepolitics.com/...uk-is-in-shock-details-inside
Trump to 'avoid Charles on UK visit over climate change' | Daily Mail Online
He wants a party that celebrates him, not a state visit where world issues are discussed.
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 171 of 710 (800191)
02-20-2017 4:59 PM
Reply to: Message 161 by vimesey
02-20-2017 1:49 PM


Re: Poor sad England, poor sad Europe
One should always play to one's strengths.
You mean being a huckster carney salesman?
Leaders should not avoid communicating with other leaders because of their opinions.

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 172 of 710 (800194)
02-20-2017 6:12 PM
Reply to: Message 164 by Faith
02-20-2017 2:24 PM


Yiannopoulos
Hey Faith, I thought you might like an update
quote:
Breitbart employees threaten exit over Yiannopoulos
Employees at Breitbart News are reportedly prepared to leave the company if controversial senior editor Milo Yiannopoulos is not fired.
Another senior editor at the publication told Washingtonian Monday that "at least a half dozen" employees are prepared to leave to organization because of remarks Yiannopoulos made about pedophilia that gained attention this weekend.
The fact of the matter is that there’s been so many things that have been objectionable about Milo over the last couple of years, quite frankly. This is something far more sinister, the senior editor said.
If the company isn’t willing to act, there are at least half a dozen people who are willing to walk out over it.
quote:
Milo Yiannopoulos’s Pedophilia Comments Cost Him CPAC Role and Book Deal
Milo Yiannopoulos, the provocateur and Breitbart News editor, was under pressure on several fronts Monday after the publication of a video in which he condones sexual relations with boys as young as 13 and laughs off the seriousness of pedophilia by Roman Catholic priests.
The organizers of the Conservative Political Action Conference rescinded their invitation for him to speak later this week. Simon & Schuster said it was canceling publication of his forthcoming book, Dangerous. And there were calls online for Breitbart to sever ties with him.
Looks like Berkeley is not alone in thinking this is not a person to be given a podium ...
So much for that "liberal hypocrisy" argument ...
Enjoy
Edited by RAZD, : .

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Replies to this message:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 189 of 710 (800230)
02-21-2017 9:02 AM
Reply to: Message 173 by Faith
02-20-2017 7:49 PM


Re: Yiannopoulos
Yiannopolous has shown enough sleaze to be discredited, I agree with that. But it was his conservative opinions the "protests" were about.
Yes, Faith, it was the sum total of all his views, which take conservative views to new lows. It seems the left figured this guy out before the right did.
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(2)
Message 300 of 710 (800445)
02-23-2017 4:23 PM
Reply to: Message 285 by Faith
02-23-2017 10:43 AM


Formal definitions seem to function to obscure the truth. ...
The purpose is to ensure people are talking about the same thing, that would seem to me to lift some of the veils hiding whatever truth there is.
... I know what I'm posting is the truth, ...
How? What paradigm do you use to verify what you are posting?
... what can I possibly do to convince anyone else? ...
Show us the logic and the evidence, using verifiable sources.
... I don't know, how does one prove something is going on across the world that is denied by major sources of information? ...
If it is happening you can find it from other sources, hopefully several different ones (and if the wording is identical they are not independent sources)
Take the #NoDAPL protests for instance: rarely reported on the MSM (unless there was a report on violence committed by the protesters ... which did not happen, or unless there was some added element that was considered "newsworthy" by the editors ... like the veterans arriving in large numbers to join the protests). This protest was going on for over a year, but you wouldn't know it from watching MSM (or Faux).
But you could find it on Democracy Now and you could find it on live feeds from the Green Party (when Jill Stein visited), and you could find it on live feed from people in the camp.
So #NoDAPL is not fake news.
Then we look at the "Bowling Green Massacre" where the only "evidence" is a claim by Kellyanne Conway. There is not police report or any other record of a terrorist attack. The closest is a report of two (2) men picked up with weapons.
So "Bowling Green Massacre" IS fake news.
Or the night of the "Swedish Meatball Massacre" where not only is there no evidence to support Trumps claim but the Swedish government issued several statements that showed that the claim was fabricated:
quote:
Fact-checking Swedish response to Trump's crime claim
At a political rally in Melbourne, Fla., on Feb. 18, Trump wrongly suggested a horrible crime had taken place in Sweden. After media reports, including PolitiFact, noted that no terrorist incident transpired in Sweden Feb. 17, Trump tried to clarify his statement multiple times.
Bildt unsatisfied with Trump’s latest charge struck back.
"Last year there were app 50% more murders only in Orlando/Orange in Florida, where Trump spoke the other day, than in all of Sweden. Bad," Bildt wrote in a tweet Feb. 20.
So the "Swedish Meatball Massacre"is fake news.
... There are lots of people telling the truth but you all refuse to believe it. ...
People telling stories are not news based on evidence, Show us the logic and the evidence, using verifiable sources.
... Political correctness rules. ...
Or reality.
... Nobody here wants to believe the truth about what's going on in Europe. Deep grief.
Nobody wants to believe overblown reports that try to drum up causes for launching a war.
Enjoy

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 319 of 710 (800487)
02-24-2017 7:55 AM
Reply to: Message 310 by Faith
02-24-2017 2:55 AM


cognitive dissonance: reality is a conspiracy?
Since the powers-that-be in Sweden have decided they have a vested interest in suppressing the facts, surely they will have suppressed them. ...
It is truly amazing the lengths you go to, Faith, the massive conspiracies you invent, to protect and justify your beliefs.
Sad

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 327 of 710 (800496)
02-24-2017 9:32 AM
Reply to: Message 323 by JonF
02-24-2017 8:08 AM


Fox Fakes news again ... SHOCKING
Swedish Cops Featured in Fox News Segment Say Views Were Misrepresented
quote:
Part of the support Horowitz presents for his view on Sweden’s horrors are interviews with two police officers. The problem is those officers say they never meant to espouse the message that Horowitz attributes to them. It was supposed to be about crime in high risk areas. Areas with high crime rates. There wasn’t any focus on migration or immigration, Anders Granzon told Swedish paper Dagens Nyheter. According to Granzon, Horowitz edited their answers, which were to completely different questions in the interview. His conclusion? This is bad journalism.
Not "bad journalism" but FAKE NEWS journalism.
but of course this is a conspiracy by FAUX to counter the conspiracy that must exist ...

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 338 of 710 (800524)
02-24-2017 5:39 PM
Reply to: Message 329 by Faith
02-24-2017 1:00 PM


Mapping out News sources by credibility
I'm just going to put this here:
Ones at the bottom are less to un- reliable, at the top more reliable.
Left side is left leaning, right side is right leaning.
so looney-bin left is lower left while looney-bin right is lower right
Now I agree that the lower left are unreliable and tend towards fake headlines that are not supported in the body of the article and to articles that overstate the case.
I prefer The Hill to Slate and the Guardian to the Wall Street Journal (corporatist)
I also prefer BBC and NPR to ABC, NBC and other stock mainstream news - especially at the national level.
I don't see Democracy Now listed or Grist.
Enjoy

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(7)
Message 343 of 710 (800539)
02-25-2017 11:45 AM
Reply to: Message 330 by Faith
02-24-2017 1:14 PM


Galloping disinformation from Faux Noise ... as usual
Here's another one for you Faith:
quote:
Fake Sweden expert on Fox News — has criminal convictions in US, no connection to Swedish security
Fox News continues to focus on the debate about how immigration is breaking Sweden. One guest last night, described as a Swedish defense and national security advisor, spoke about the problems caused by criminality in Swedish cities and suburbs. But neither the Swedish Defense Ministry nor Foreign Office have heard of the expert. Nils Bildt, who called for an open and honest debate on crime, has previously been convicted of a violent offence in the United States.
Friday the question was the focus of debate during the conservative Fox-presenter Bill O’Reillys show, where Nils Bildt confirmed Donald Trumps negative view of Sweden. Nils Bildt was introduced by Fox as a Swedish defense and national security advisor, which has caused more than a few raised eyebrows.
Marie Pister at the Swedish Defense Ministry says that no-one called Nils Bildt works there. We have no spokesman by that name, she said. The Foreign Office also denies that he works there. We do not know who he is.
Nils Bildt sent a short e-mail to DN late earlier on Friday, explaining why he was given the title of Swedish defense and national security advisor: I appeared on Bill O'Reillys's show on Fox News. The title was chosen by Fox News's editor — I had no personal control over what title they chose. I am an independent analyst based in the USA, he wrote.
Johan Wiktorin, a former defense analyst at the Military Intelligence and Security Service, MUST, says that he has never heard of Nils Bildt. He is unknown in Sweden as an expert on national security. The depiction of Sweden as a problem country in American media is a disturbing trend.
"disturbing trend" is a polite way of saying it is a steaming pile of horse manure -- it's fake news and falsehoods.
If it's Faux it's FAKE.
Enjoy

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1433 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 367 of 710 (800605)
02-26-2017 11:01 AM
Reply to: Message 359 by Faith
02-26-2017 8:19 AM


More violence with immigrants in Germany
quote:
Germany hate crime: Nearly 10 attacks a day on migrants in 2016
Arson attacks on shelters used by asylum seekers are common in Germany
Nearly 10 attacks were made on migrants in Germany every day in 2016, the interior ministry says.
A total of 560 people were injured in the violence, including 43 children.
Three-quarters of the attacks targeted migrants outside of their accommodation, while nearly 1,000 attacks were on housing.
Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to open up Germany to people fleeing conflict and persecution has polarised the country and boosted hate crime.
Germany is struggling with a backlog of asylum applications and there are fears about security following a series of terrorist attacks across Europe.
But the number of asylum seekers arriving in Germany in 2016 was 280,000, a drop of more than 600,000 from the previous year, following the closure of the Balkan migrant route and an EU deal with Turkey.
So it seems that immigrants are more in danger than a danger. Similar findings in Sweden, where immigrants are being attacked.
Do your news sources report these incidents or do they hide them because of some conspiracy agenda?
Just askin

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