Message 5 of 7 (802839)
03-20-2017 4:14 PM
Consider this about the November 2016 Senate races (in the history books now).
For the first time in American history, every state that the Democrat won also saw the Senate seats being won by Democrats and every state that the Republican won saw the Republicans win.
Now look at the races in 2018, which are based on having an incumbent that won in 2012.
The most popular Democrat ever in Nebraska, Bob Kerry, lost the open seat (with a retiring incumbent) 58% to 42% to Deb Fischer.
Ted Cruz won 58% of the vote (and most Hispanics voted for the right-wing Republican in the open 2014 Governors race. And that disgraceful 2014 Democratic opponent now says her biggest campaign mistake was that she didn't go after gun rights even "harder"! Huh? She was a big mouthpiece for Hillary Clinton (over Sanders) in the 2016 Democratic primary, and bragged that Hillary was a "progressive" champion because, when she was asked by reporters, of (and she would only have this as a response) the gun issue.
Utah and Wyoming 2012
Lets not even go there. This is la la land to even talk about these states.
Lets look at the Presidential race, because the very old Republican incumbent in 2012 (who might not be running now) was a politician that has always had a ton of black support (for historical reasons mainly) and it might confuse the issue to look at the Senate race.
Obama lost 56% to 43% in 2008 (though pro-gun conservative Democrats were still doing o.k. in state races plus the federal congressional races) (white Democrats are extinct in Mississippi)
Obama lost 55% to 44% in 2012.
Trump won 58% to 40% in 2016.
Gore only lost 57% to 41% in 2000.
Democrats haven't won a Senate race since 1982 and have lost badly since. They have only won 2 since the 1970 win.
Democrat have lost the popular vote in every Governors race since 1987.
Democrats have tanked in this and so many other states since gun control became an issue again.
Bon Corker is a popular moderate (who won with like 70%), but he actually almost lost the open seat in 2006 (however he only won 51% to 48% against a pro life pro gun black Democratic congressman). Democrats have lost any chance of winning due to the gun issue coming back in December 2012. Republicans never liked Bob Corker.
Trump won easily with way more than 10%.
5 of the states were won by Trump by more than 15% and Texas by 9%.
That leaves Arizona and Nevada.
Trump won Arizona by 3.5% and Jeff Flake will get to run in a low turnout mid term election which will help him a lot. He will do at least as good with Hispanics as Trump and likely better due to his pro immigration views. He is a Mormon and his church has made it clear they don't agree with Trump.
Hillary won Nevada by 5% so perhaps Dean Heller can be defeated.
Democrats can win no more than 2, but the bigger question is if they take any seats at all.
And that is a question about the gross level.
On a net level they could loose 8 seats nationwide and I would still mean they are winning the majority of races (17 to 16). That would give the Republicans a super majority of 60 seats in the Senate.