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Author Topic:   Important upcoming elections
jar
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Posts: 28838
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.0


(1)
Message 1 of 9 (802744)
03-19-2017 8:47 PM


There are six vacancies in Congress that will require special elections to fill. It is essential that as much support for liberal candidates as possible gets focused on those six seats.

They are outlined in this article from Ballotpedia.org

Then there are are 23 Democratic seats, eight Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018 and it is essential that all 23 Democratic seats remain in Democratic control as well as at least three of the incumbent Republican seats get overturned.

Let's work to see that it is impossible from the Trump Administration to fill any Judgeships after 2017.


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Coyote, posted 03-19-2017 10:28 PM jar has responded
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Coyote
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Joined: 01-12-2008
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 2 of 9 (802747)
03-19-2017 10:28 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by jar
03-19-2017 8:47 PM


Why is it essential to put democrats in those seats?

A good half the country has contrary opinions.


Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.

Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein

In the name of diversity, college student demands to be kept in ignorance of the culture that made diversity a value--StultisTheFool

It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers

If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle

If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1

"Multiculturalism" demands that the US be tolerant of everything except its own past, culture, traditions, and identity.

Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other points of view--William F. Buckley Jr.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by jar, posted 03-19-2017 8:47 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
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 Message 9 by Taq, posted 05-25-2017 11:15 AM Coyote has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 766
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 3 of 9 (802748)
03-19-2017 11:43 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by jar
03-19-2017 8:47 PM


Impossible to get Senate flipped
Wyoming and Utah are 100 percent safe Republican states and Democrats know they have no chance EVER in a statewide federal race. Nebraska is the 4th best performing Republican state (after Wyoming, Utah, Idaho and this analysis is based on overall performance based on multiple factors ) and is a state where the fundamental voter preference guarantees Democrats simply can't win mathematically. That eliminates 3 of the 8 right there. Good luck trying to win Mississippi since white voters never give Democrats so much as 20 percent of the vote for any federal race and it is often far short of that. The best Democrats have done since 1987 in Governors races was a 49 to 47 loss in November 1999 (the election law enabled the Democratic legislature to decide who got to sit in the Governor's mansion when both candidates failed to get 50 percent plus 1) and Ronnie Musgrove never topped 47 percent since then but he took advantage of record black support in 2008 to get 46 percent in a special election for the same seat that is up in 2018. But Democratic performance has taken a nosedive since 2008. Even once strong conservative Democrats got smashed in 2010 in congressional district races plus Democrats lost the legislature. No Democrat can win there. Tennesseans are more fundamentally GOP than ever. The 2012 election saw a former r Democratic performing district become safe GOP when a 1 term GOP incumbent was discovered to have had multiple extramarital affairs ( that lead to multiple abortions) yet a Pro Life Democratic challenger couldn't take the seat back. Texas is a state where Ted Cruz won 58 percent in a high turnout Presidential year and 2012 wasn't a year with a particularly bad climate for Democrats generally. That would eliminate all but 2 seats. That leaves Arizona which is very Republican in non Presidential years and Jeff Flake is a mild mannered Pro Immigration conservative and it is tough to find many weaknesses on
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Replies to this message:
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jar
Member
Posts: 28838
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.0


(4)
Message 4 of 9 (802775)
03-20-2017 6:57 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by Coyote
03-19-2017 10:28 PM


To assure that those contrary opinions do not become the force of law.

AbE:

Let me rephrase my answer. Again, I am speaking as a life long Republican. If there was any evidence that the modern Republican Party could field any candidates that were not bat-shit crazy fascists then I would also support those candidates.

Edited by jar, : see AbE:


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 766
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 5 of 9 (802839)
03-20-2017 4:14 PM


Consider this about the November 2016 Senate races (in the history books now).
For the first time in American history, every state that the Democrat won also saw the Senate seats being won by Democrats and every state that the Republican won saw the Republicans win.

Now look at the races in 2018, which are based on having an incumbent that won in 2012.

Nebraska 2012

The most popular Democrat ever in Nebraska, Bob Kerry, lost the open seat (with a retiring incumbent) 58% to 42% to Deb Fischer.

Texas 2012

Ted Cruz won 58% of the vote (and most Hispanics voted for the right-wing Republican in the open 2014 Governors race. And that disgraceful 2014 Democratic opponent now says her biggest campaign mistake was that she didn't go after gun rights even "harder"! Huh? She was a big mouthpiece for Hillary Clinton (over Sanders) in the 2016 Democratic primary, and bragged that Hillary was a "progressive" champion because, when she was asked by reporters, of (and she would only have this as a response) the gun issue.

Utah and Wyoming 2012

Lets not even go there. This is la la land to even talk about these states.

Mississippi 2012

Lets look at the Presidential race, because the very old Republican incumbent in 2012 (who might not be running now) was a politician that has always had a ton of black support (for historical reasons mainly) and it might confuse the issue to look at the Senate race.

Obama lost 56% to 43% in 2008 (though pro-gun conservative Democrats were still doing o.k. in state races plus the federal congressional races) (white Democrats are extinct in Mississippi)

Obama lost 55% to 44% in 2012.

Trump won 58% to 40% in 2016.

Gore only lost 57% to 41% in 2000.

Democrats haven't won a Senate race since 1982 and have lost badly since. They have only won 2 since the 1970 win.

Democrat have lost the popular vote in every Governors race since 1987.

Democrats have tanked in this and so many other states since gun control became an issue again.

Tennessee 2012

Bon Corker is a popular moderate (who won with like 70%), but he actually almost lost the open seat in 2006 (however he only won 51% to 48% against a pro life pro gun black Democratic congressman). Democrats have lost any chance of winning due to the gun issue coming back in December 2012. Republicans never liked Bob Corker.

Trump won easily with way more than 10%.

5 of the states were won by Trump by more than 15% and Texas by 9%.

That leaves Arizona and Nevada.

Trump won Arizona by 3.5% and Jeff Flake will get to run in a low turnout mid term election which will help him a lot. He will do at least as good with Hispanics as Trump and likely better due to his pro immigration views. He is a Mormon and his church has made it clear they don't agree with Trump.

Hillary won Nevada by 5% so perhaps Dean Heller can be defeated.

Democrats can win no more than 2, but the bigger question is if they take any seats at all.

And that is a question about the gross level.

On a net level they could loose 8 seats nationwide and I would still mean they are winning the majority of races (17 to 16). That would give the Republicans a super majority of 60 seats in the Senate.


    
NoNukes
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Posts: 9547
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 6 of 9 (802886)
03-21-2017 11:27 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by LamarkNewAge
03-19-2017 11:43 PM


Re: Impossible to get Senate flipped
That leaves Arizona which is very Republican in non Presidential years and Jeff Flake is a mild mannered Pro Immigration conservative and it is tough to find many weaknesses on

I agree that flipping the senate in a single election is unlikely. But the problem with your projections is that generally speaking, in off year senate elections, only a tiny minority of folks participate. A motivated voting block, Republican or Democrat, can change things in a remarkable fashion during these elections.

After the last election, there appeared to be plenty of motivated folks who are adamantly opposed to Trump. Perhaps it will turn out that the past November butt whooping will have some positive results.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by LamarkNewAge, posted 03-19-2017 11:43 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 766
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 7 of 9 (802904)
03-21-2017 3:02 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by NoNukes
03-21-2017 11:27 AM


Re: Impossible to get Senate flipped
I suspect that you would have to go back to an election like 1974 or 1964 to find Democrats , or Republicans (for that matter), doing so well in a single election as they would need tto do to take the Senate in 2018.

The Democrats would need a 28 to 5 win on election night.

Has that ever happened?

And considering that Hillary only got about 25% of the vote in West Virginia, then what chance does Joe Manchin have?

I really don't see where Democrats can take more than 1 seat or 2 from the Republicans, though I sure can see where Republicans can take more than a few from Democrats.

Democrats really got their clocks cleaned in 2014 and 2016. Their fragile Senate majority was depending on holding a lot of seats in tough territory. They nominated a gun control nut in Montana in 2014 (and lost by 17% as one would expect) for the Baucus open seat. Mark Udall, in Colorado, decided to reverse his pro gun policy he ran on in 2008 and he lost. I think that the Alaska seat was lost due to the national Democratic party hurting Mark Begich.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by NoNukes, posted 03-21-2017 11:27 AM NoNukes has acknowledged this reply

    
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 766
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 8 of 9 (810184)
05-24-2017 11:37 PM


Single-payer passes 94-46 in Assembly, has 30 sponsors (needs 31) in 62 member Senate
The Senate has 32 Democrats and 31 Republicans, but Brooklyn Sen. Simcha Felder is a DINO and caucuses with the GOP, so the Senate is Republican controlled.

Democrats are making a major push to take the upper chamber in 2018.

The plan is called the New York Health Act and it has passed in the two previous years only to fail in the Senate.

Third time a charm for this history making public policy attempt?

Trump has brought the GOP brand to a new low, so Democratic chances in 2018 for a Senate takeover make the possibility for an unprecedented passage by 2020 fairly decent.


    
Taq
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Posts: 6461
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 4.2


(1)
Message 9 of 9 (810207)
05-25-2017 11:15 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by Coyote
03-19-2017 10:28 PM


Coyote writes:

A good half the country has contrary opinions.

Now that Republican policies are become more of a reality, those opinions may change.

When those people voted for Republicans for Congress, did they send them there to increase the cost of their health insurance? Probably not. Did they send them there to take away social programs and give the money from those programs to the richest Americans? Probably not. Did they vote for someone to kick their grandmother off of Medicaid so she can't afford that nursing home anymore? Probably not.

I suspect that many people voted for Republicans in the abstract because of the tribalist nature of modern politics. They may not like it so much when Republicans policies go from the abstract to the concrete.


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 Message 2 by Coyote, posted 03-19-2017 10:28 PM Coyote has not yet responded

  
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