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Author Topic:   MACROevolution vs MICROevolution - what is it?
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5949
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.5


Message 439 of 908 (817317)
08-16-2017 3:31 PM
Reply to: Message 421 by Faith
08-16-2017 12:40 PM


Re: Breeding possibilities
Well, consider the odds. Not only does your mutation have to occur at the gene locus for the long haired trait, it has to be a particular sequence that would code for the protein for that trait, it also has to be dominant and able to be expressed even if ten other genes also code for hair length and they are all homozygous for short hair, and it has to occur in a sex cell in order to be passed on. Then if it gets passed on and shows up in half the pups in that litter it will probably only be a LITTLE longer than the short haired type anyway, but you could start your new breed from there. But again, consider the odds.
. . .
The odds are seriously against you.
. . .
I'm saying that such specific mutations as described above are highly improbable.
. . .
I think the odds are astronomically against it.
. . .
Please ponder what I've written about this above about the odds against getting a particular mutation in the right place to be passed on etc etc etc. It's all a matter of getting a particular DNA sequence that codes for a particular protein in the germ cell. Consider the odds.
Yes, let's consider the odds! Instead of all this hand-waving, give us some actual probabilities that we can start crunching so that we can see what the final probability actually would be.
So just what are the odds? You don't need to be exact. Within a few orders of magnitude should suffice and would at least give us something to work with besides your hand-waving.
New Cat's Eye wants to know (Message 423). Taq wants to know (Message 429 and Message 435 and Message 438) . Stiles wants to know (Message 431). I want to know too.
So what are the probabilities? If you don't know (in which case you've been blowing smoke), then I'm sure there are sources that would provide them. There's a long history of animal and plant breeding which I'm certain has a sizable body of literature, so I would assume that the information is there. Other forum members might know or know where to find the information.
Or we could start with a SWAG figure assigning a low probability for a particular pup get the mutation (analogous to figuring out a specific person's chances of winning the lottery). That would allow us to figure out the probability of any pup getting the mutation (analogous to figuring out the odds of anybody winning the lottery). We could expand that to a range of SWAG values so that we can arrive at upper and lower bounds on the outcome.
So, enough with the hand-waving and let's start crunching numbers!

Regarding hand-waving, as we were watching a video of Al and Leon doing their version of the Shim Sham, our Lindy instructor pointed out Leon's use of jazz hands to draw the audience's attention away from how he was messing up his footwork.
There is a time and place for hand-waving, but eventually we must actually do the math.
Edited by dwise1, : Added Taq's newest message

This message is a reply to:
 Message 421 by Faith, posted 08-16-2017 12:40 PM Faith has not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5949
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.5


Message 658 of 908 (817919)
08-21-2017 3:26 PM
Reply to: Message 655 by herebedragons
08-21-2017 3:12 PM


Re: eclipse
Back around 1990 I worked for a company that designed and manufactured computerized greenhouse control systems, which included a weather station. For testing purposes, we had many parts of the system set up at our building.
When we had a partial solar eclipse, we went outside and could hardly notice any difference, just a little bit dimmer and maybe a tiny bit cooler. Later that day I ran a graph of the weather station data and the drops in both temperature and light level were dramatic.
Sorry, I don't think that I saved that graph and, if I did, I have no idea where it could be. Maybe as I'm sorting through all my papers next year after I retire.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 655 by herebedragons, posted 08-21-2017 3:12 PM herebedragons has not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5949
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.5


(2)
Message 861 of 908 (818307)
08-26-2017 3:30 PM
Reply to: Message 853 by Faith
08-26-2017 10:48 AM


Of course, you will read none of this, because your false theology requires you to keep yourself as ignorant as possible.
Several years ago, I had a Korean BBQ lunch with a friend from church, Gary, who talked to me about his past. For many years, Gary had been a "true Christian", a fundamentalist. Now he describes himself as "a complete atheist and thorough humanist" and finds himself to be far more spiritually fulfilled than when he was a "true Christian". Back when he was a "true Christian", he would constantly see things that contradicted his beliefs and so he would filter them out, turn a blind eye to them. Even if done automatically and subconsciously, filtering out reality is an active endeavor which does require effort and which does take its toll. Finally one day he was so worn out by his continual denial that he applied the Matthew 7:20 test to Christianity. Christianity failed the Matthew 7:20 test. And Gary was then saved from Christianity.
Faith, you are constantly encountering reality which does not agree with your religious beliefs, so you are trying desperately to turn a blind eye to them. And that is not working so well for you, is it?
I had shared with Dredge my attempts to analyze what's going on in creationists' minds (since they refuse to discuss such questions, all we are left with is observation and analysis). Most YECs accept without question the lies that they are taught by their religious leaders. Most YECs only keep amongst themselves and thus are never exposed to the truth about those creationist lies and therefore experience no conflict.
However, some YECs, emboldened by the lies they'd been fed, venture forth far too boldly to do battle with those "evilutionists" on their own turf. That is when those YECs start to encounter reality and start to learn that what the creationists had taught them all those years was nothing but bullshit lies.
How do those YECs react to that? The honest ones eventually come to reject the creationist lies. As I understand, several of the anti-creationism members of this forum used to be YECs before they encountered the truth. Rejecting YEC does not happen immediately nor is it easy, but eventually you get to the point where you can simply no longer continue to accept the creationist lies or to make excuses for them.
But we also see those who ignore the truth and hold fast to their creationist lies. In doing so, they must become dishonest and in order to defend or support those creationist lies they must use dishonest means. And the longer they engage with non-creationists, the more dishonest they have to become.
So if you cannot endure encountering the truth about your creationists beliefs, then venturing out among the normals should be your last option. Instead, you should scurry into the shadows to gather with fellow YECs and engage in a massive circle jerk so that you can all get each other off with creationist lies. Because in such circles the truth can be a really big buzz killer.
Definitions must all be in line with evo theory, ...
This has been a big stumbling block for you for several years. If you are going to discuss some subject with others, then you must use the same vocabulary in order to be understood. If you use an entirely different vocabulary, then nobody will be able to understand you and all that can result is confusion. Well of course, confusion is a creationist's best friend, because the last thing that a creationist would want would be for anyone to understand what he's saying, since what he's saying is contrary-to-fact and intended to deceive his audience.
Here's a possible example. Let's say that you are discussing dogs and what dogs can do. So you decide to redefine "dog" to include penguins and start blathering on about how dogs will dive into the Antarctic waters for extended periods of time to hunt for fish to bring back and regurgitate for the pups to feed on. Oh, and in the meantime the daddy dogs had been balancing the pup eggs on their feet to keep them warm. Pup eggs. And of course everybody else tries to explain to you why your statements are blithering nonsense and you denounce them as {insert any of the various insulting things you have called everybody here} just because they do not accept your redefinition ofr "dog" to include penguins, which by the way you may or may not have ever explicitly stated at any point while at the same time deflecting with contempt anyone's attempts to determine just what the hell you are thinking.
YEC isn't the ToE ...
No, it is not. YEC is a pack of lies, whereas the Theory of Evolution is a scientific theory.
And we know from another post, Message 843, that you have no clue what a theory is. And do please note that you were corrected about what a theory is in Message 847 written several hours before this message that I am replying to.
So since you are so ignorant of the things you pontificate about, why should anyone feel that they should take anything you say seriously? You keep proving that you don't know what you are talking about.
... mutations being an interference and unnecessary, ...
Uh, no. Mutations do indeed happen. They are not inferences, but rather they do happen.
So in addition to having no clue how science works (eg, you have no clue what a theory is), you also have no clue about mutations? Though your ignorance in such matters does not deter you from pontificating about them.
... though I thinki the whole idea of fitness is overrated; ...
Your entire "theory" -- read "half-baked idea" -- is based completely on selection which itself is driven by fitness. So now you are calling that into question as well? For what reason? Oh yeah, that's right, for no reason at all.
So then, is this your admission that you also don't have a clue about selection?
... and overall I know the ToE is a crock.
How? You don't know how it works, you don't know about mutations, you don't know about selection, you don't even know what a theory is. Being so monumentally ignorant of evolution, how could you ever possibly have evaluated it truthfully in order to arrive at such a conclusion.
Sorry, but all the evidence points to the simple fact that you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. Yet again.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 853 by Faith, posted 08-26-2017 10:48 AM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 862 by Faith, posted 08-26-2017 4:43 PM dwise1 has not replied

  
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