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Member (Idle past 1405 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
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Author | Topic: Climate Change Denier comes in from the cold: SCIENCE!!! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NoNukes Inactive Member
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. What wasn't in doubt is that human activity was trapping more heat in the atmosphere than natural processes alone, and all we needed for that was measurements in atmospheric CO2. Actually, a lot more is required than that. The current research dismisses a number of possible natural processes, some of which are terrestrial and others which are not. The science behind the current consensus is non-trivial. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
If there were natural processes that were also raising temps, it would still not make our contribution to warming go away, it would simply add to it. I am not debating whether climate changed is predominantly caused by humans. What I am debating is that the fact can be considered obvious. If there were natural processes, some of which raised temps and some of which lowered temps, it could turn out that the human contribution is relatively unimportant, and that none of efforts will prevent the east coast from moving to Atlanta by the end of the decade. As jar is found of saying, it is the best case if humans are in responsible for the bulk, or a substantial part of global warning, because it is only the part within human control that we have a shot at fixing. I am not a climate scientist, and as a result, there are many questions raised by folks who deny client scientist that I accept that our scientists have answered. There are some areas where I defer to scientists because I cannot understand the science on my own. In my opinion, that means that the conclusions are non obvious. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
imilar in many places in Florida. Engineers don't design sewers to back up onto streets. Let's distinguish between climate and bad weather. Where I lived as a kid in Atlanta, the sewers did back up after an occasional rain. I find it amusing that people claim that global warming is obvious. It appears to me that both those who believe in AGW and those who do not, continue in their belief largely because of what they have been told rather than because of being convinced by the science.
But the evidence shows that it is human generated rather than natural. Of course!! The evidence, with the proper scientific analysis, and the proper modeling all lead inescapably to that conclusion. But saying that, and claiming that the conclusion is obvious is not the same thing. When folks make that claim, it simply convinces me that they have a very limited understanding of what is involved in a field of science that they don't practice in. One might say the same thing about evolution, general relativity, etc. Those things all make logical sense and are well supported by evidence and science. Are they obvious... maybe not. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
That makes it obvious that such flooding has some other cause: global warming is the only known possibility. The question here is not just global warming, but AGW, meaning human-induced effects. Again, let's remember that you are not debating a skeptic. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
The part I am saying is obvious is that dumping a bunch of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere will necessarily trap more heat than would otherwise be trapped. Yes. That's just physics and chemistry. However, even that is only "obvious" to the educated.
I will agree that it isn't obvious how much of a relative difference that extra trapped heat has made and will make, but the obvious part is that it is being trapped. I am not disagreeing with any of that. What I am disagreeing with is the tendency to underestimate the complexity of the science. I doubt that one out of five folks here understands the science well enough to answer well thought out objections of the few scientists who don't agree with the consensus. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
If we pump a bunch of stuff in the atmosphere that traps heat, what do you think the result will be? Sigh. I have addressed this question a number of times, including in the post you are responding to. Yes, CO2 is a greenhouse gas. If you believe that to be the only factor that needs to be considered, then you have an overly simple idea of the science behind AGW. Again, CO2 is pumped into the atmosphere by humans, and it is also removed by a number of mechanisms. Things other than people also put CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. There are also things like water vapor, methane, etc. Some of which have man-made and natural variation each having its own "half-life" within the atmosphere. We know the conclusion of those processes only because they fit of complex models that most of us don't understand fully, and the tracking of those models of the atmosphere, ocean, etc with temperatures we've measured along with other analysis that rules out the idea that what we understand to be the human contribution is either attributable to non-humans or to errors in measurement. Of course, all of that science I don't understand is somebody else's job five days a week. Feel free to call the conclusions obvious. But perhaps it is a little more clear why I disagree with your call. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
What processes are those? Is there any reason to believe that any have changed significantly during the last 150 years? That is a great question. It is one which folks ought to ask themselves when they insist that climate science is easy. I am no expert, but I know that there are non-human weather patterns that take up decades. El Nino and El Nina are examples of those. I also know that the last ice age was longer ago that 150 years. Solar activity cycles are decades long. Not only that, but the earth is a big, complex place. We should expect that effects lag behind their causes for substantial amounts of time. The point is not that AGW is not the correct conclusion, but rather that climate science is not for amateurs or armchair quarterbacks. We ought to believe that AGW is real, not because it is obvious, but because our scientists have done their homework, and have drawn the correct conclusions. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
It does matter what portion of GW is human caused when we are deciding which actions to take. Policy can deal with either coping with the problem or stopping/reducing the effects, or some combination. It is not feasible to make rational policies without assessing causes as best we can.
I understand your point, but your advice isn't all that useful for folks who already know we need to do something. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
At what point should action be taken ... Apparently, I am leaving the wrong impression. I believe that we are already well passed the point where action should be taken, and have in fact reached the point where our failure to act has had negative consequence. I am taking issue with the claim that the relative size of the human contribution is of no importance. That's simply incorrect. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
The fact is that discussion is only useful as a way to continue to do nothing and nothing is what the US seems very good at doing. A discussion is a necessary prelude to any concerted action; at least that is my opinion. But, let's hear about your solution that does not involve any discussion. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
Learn to read; I said "that discussion" Perhaps you should learn to talk. Here are two sentences, earch written by you, each with the phrase "that discussion" in them. Neither usage would appear to reference a past discussion. The most recent one I will cite first. That one definitely does not reference a past discussion:
What I have said in this here very thread was that discussion was needed Your current claim is that this one does reference a past discussion:
The fact is that discussion is only useful as a way to continue to do nothing and nothing is what the US seems very good at doing. If "that" has the meaning you are now claiming, your expression of that meaning was completely unclear. You quite obviously don't consistently use that in the way you are now insisting one. In any event, your position that we need not discuss just what the amount of human contribution might be is ridiculous. But as for my reading comprehension... I can read just fine. But apparently, you cannot even keep your phrasing consistent when you are trying to correct me. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member
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"I think we'd be better off if we had never figured out the the globe was warming".
Maybe you are right. I personally think that the politics behind clean air is at an even higher level of denial than is that of global warming. People are willing to argue that not having a job is just as harmful to your health as smog. Of course that turns out to be true only because of our equally dicked up health care system which denies care to folks without lots of money. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
Unless you want to argue that it is irrelevant whether we have 2 degrees or 0.2 degrees increase (due to human contribution of course) in temps over the next 50 years, then modeling does matter. It is not possible to make reasonable policy decisions on human activity without such information.
Edited by NoNukes, : clarify meaning. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
"Your standard AGW denier"
I am not having a discussion with AGW deniers or about them. I am discussing the science that would be needed to convince normally, and appropriately skeptical people. Knowing that CO2 is a green house gas is just one fact among many. Not sure why it is painful to acknowledge that some "rocket science" is involved. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
I can see that you didn't live in Soweto in the seventies and you don't live in eMalahleni today... If I did live in one of those places, and I did not have access to the science, I would have no idea what the cause of the climate change was. Seriously, this discussion is getting ridiculous. I am convinced that AGW is reality. I am not a denier. But that does not make my conclusion something that is obvious nor does it mean that I formed my conclusion correctly, although I did take a serious stab at understanding the evidence. I believe that most folks on both sides of the issue are all but clueless about the science. This discussion is reinforcing that belief. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I was thinking as long as I have my hands up they’re not going to shoot me. This is what I’m thinking they’re not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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