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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Posts: 13595
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.0

Message 241 of 245 (824882)
12-04-2017 4:38 PM
Reply to: Message 240 by jar
12-04-2017 4:27 PM

Re: Will Ireland derail Brexit?
In principle, if everyone agrees I think it could be called off.

But the chance of that is about zero, as things are. I canít see the government surviving if it tried. There are too many Brexiteers among the Tories - theyíre making things difficult as it is.

Maybe if the Irish business brings down the Government (I donít think it will). And if Labour get in (maybe, but I wouldnít bet a lot on it). And if they can be persuaded to give up on it (another big maybe).

The whole things a big mess. But itís likely to get worse rather than better.

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Posts: 5469
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 1.8

Message 242 of 245 (824885)
12-04-2017 5:00 PM
Reply to: Message 240 by jar
12-04-2017 4:27 PM

Re: Will Ireland derail Brexit?
No, not without another referendum.

There's still a hope that when we eventually get to the end of all this, the public will have realised what a fucking stupid thing we've done and another vote will be held. This time the students might get out of bed and vote. Long shot tho'.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.

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Posts: 1108
Joined: 12-22-2015

Message 243 of 245 (824907)
12-05-2017 12:55 AM

Don't overlook the economic "growth" percentages for the world, western nations, & UK
The 2017 year will be the first full year of the post Brexit United Kingdom.

Might as well take a look at the economic data when we have it.

(Not like it isn't fair to see the report card)

(I still have no idea why - with 57% of British incomes spend on housing costs ALONE(!) - immigrants were singled out & seen as some major drag factor, or a drag factor at all, on native Brit's well being. Slow population growth down, and hope for a little housing pressure relief? A real solution to very real economic problems would be nice.)

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

Posts: 1411
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 2.5

Message 244 of 245 (824936)
12-05-2017 12:26 PM
Reply to: Message 241 by PaulK
12-04-2017 4:38 PM

Re: Will Ireland derail Brexit?
In principle, if everyone agrees I think it could be called off.

From a strictly legal point of view, it's not entirely clear. Per the treaty as written; the UK leaves the EU in March 2019. There is a provision that this date can be extended by mutual agreement, but that's intended to give more time for negotiations. I suppose it could be indefinitely extended, but that's not really in line with the meaning of the treaty.

Rejoining the EU would, in theory, mean applying as a new member. Now, in one sense that would be simple - UK legislation is already in line with EU legislation, so the accession process can be completed as a formailty. Except that the UK currently has a bit of a cushy deal with the EU including several opt-outs. Applying as a new member would mean having to negotiate these anew; and some member-states (and the current Commission) are opposed in principle to the idea of any new opt-outs and exceptions in future accessions.

In practice I think it's just a matter of political will - if member states all agree that the process can be cancelled, then it can be. If they don't then it can't. There's no precedent for this sort of thing.

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Posts: 683
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013

Message 245 of 245 (829014)
02-28-2018 2:48 PM
Reply to: Message 237 by Diomedes
12-04-2017 2:48 PM

Re: Will Ireland derail Brexit?
Seems the situation with the Ireland border is turning into quite the quagmire for the UK leadership:


The EU's draft legal agreement proposes a "common regulatory area" after Brexit on the island of Ireland - in effect keeping Northern Ireland in a customs union - if no other solution is found.

Mrs May said "no UK prime minister could ever agree" to this.

I am honestly not sure how they will handle the situation. One the main reasons cited for Brexit was the requirement for stricter border controls. Now that appears to be undermining the fluidity of the current Northern Ireland border.

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