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Author Topic:   Police Shootings
Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6351
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003


Message 52 of 670 (832807)
05-11-2018 12:40 AM
Reply to: Message 51 by Modulous
05-10-2018 10:59 PM


Re: A Thought on the Toronto Van Rampage
Modulous responds to me:
quote:
The reason for the racial disparity in police shootings is due to race.
Then why did you ask about income/education/etc.? If it is "so blindingly obvious you didn't think it needed spelling out," why did you ask about it as if you needed it spelled out? You do recall that we can see your past posts, yes?
quote:
So why didn't those millions of interactions result in people getting shot? Is it more because they were white?
(*blink!*)
You did not just say that, did you?
Privilege is not a magic wand. We've been through this before. Privilege doesn't stop you from getting shot. It's the recognition that when things go bad, they're likely not to go as bad when you have privilege than when you don't.
quote:
Regardless of his race, he was less likely to get shot than people who live in the US may be used to
Really? Half a minuscule number is still a miniscule number. In the US, about 22% of the population has a face-to-face encounter with the police. So of those interactions, just over one-thousandth of one percent of them result in getting killed by the cops:
1000 deaths / (325 million people * 22%) = 0.000013
From what I can tell, about 5 million Canadians have an interaction with the cops. At least 65 ended in death in 2017:
65 deaths / 5 million interactions = 0.000013
Wow! That's the same rate! So no, there is no great shock in the Canadian guy not getting shot compared to the US guy.
So we're back to my question: What part of "the guy was white" played into your analysis.
As you say: None.
Is it really so hard to just say, "It surely didn't hurt"? Instead of trying to find any other reason except race why this might have happened, can we just recognize that the guy's race didn't hurt?

Rrhain

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Minds are like parachutes. Just because you've lost yours doesn't mean you can use mine.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by Modulous, posted 05-10-2018 10:59 PM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by Modulous, posted 05-11-2018 11:59 AM Rrhain has replied

  
Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6351
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003


Message 56 of 670 (832819)
05-11-2018 3:18 PM
Reply to: Message 53 by Stile
05-11-2018 9:18 AM


Re: A Thought on the Toronto Van Rampage
Stile responds to me:
quote:
Ah, thank-you for finally providing your source.
You mean that I had already done more than two weeks ago and requested you look at but for which you refused to do so?
quote:
Canada's racial problem is lesser than the US's.
No, not really. After all, the very city in which this happened is under investigation for racial bias and the rate at which black people are shot by the cops is on par with the US.
So no.
And as we found out when looking at the numbers, Toronto's problem is actually a bit worse than Chicago when you start factoring in the black population. The reason why there aren't as many black people shot by the cops, while partially due to the fact that they don't shoot as many people in general, is because there aren't that many black people in Toronto.
But getting shot is not the end-all/be-all of police interactions. There's the rest of the justice system, too, with black people being poorly treated at every step of the way compared to their white counterparts.
You really don't have anything except some sort of defensiveness regarding someone thinking about how race was involved, do you?
Is it really so hard for this interaction to have occurred?
Me: "What part of 'the guy was white' played into your analysis?"
You: "None, but now that you mention it, it certainly didn't hurt."
And that would have been the end of it.
Instead, you got defensive as if I were somehow accusing you of something nefarious. Instead, you decided to bloviate and bluster as if you had something to prove.
So since you want to spin the merry-go-round, let's try it again:
You: "This policeman displayed some very impressive restraint and control!"
Me: "What part of 'the guy was white' played into your analysis?"
You: ...?

Rrhain

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Minds are like parachutes. Just because you've lost yours doesn't mean you can use mine.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 53 by Stile, posted 05-11-2018 9:18 AM Stile has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 61 by Stile, posted 06-04-2018 1:15 PM Rrhain has not replied

  
Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6351
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003


Message 57 of 670 (832820)
05-11-2018 4:08 PM
Reply to: Message 55 by Modulous
05-11-2018 11:59 AM


Re: A Thought on the Toronto Van Rampage
Modulous responds to me:
quote:
If all black people are forced into criminality by unjust laws, devastating social conditions etc then even the least racist police force it is possible to have would still be disproportionally shooting black people.
Yep...just like I said. You only want to acknowledge the secondary racial aspect. Yeah, societal racism forcing black people into lives where criminal activity is more likely is racist...but the cop responding to it? Nah....
quote:
So why didn't those millions of interactions result in people getting shot?
Logical error: Reversal. This isn't about the people who don't get shot. This is about the people who do.
Why didn't they get shot? Because the gun wasn't pulled on them. But black people are more likely to have a gun pulled on them. And when a gun gets pulled on a suspect, black people are more likely to get shot.
quote:
I think your maths is faulty.
Nope. I gave the numbers. The math checks out.
1000 people were killed by the cops in the US (that's a bit of an over-estimate and makes things worse for the US, but let's go with it.)
About 22% of the population has a face-to-face encounter with the cops (that's a bit of an under-estimate and makes things worse for the US, but let's go with it.)
The population of the US is about 325 million (again, a bit of an under-estimate and makes things worse for the US, but let's go with it.)
Thus, 22% of 325M = 71.5M interactions with the cops.
Thus, 1000 / 71.5M = 1.4e-5
There are 65 confirmed deaths at the hands of the cops for 2017 (not merely shootings...deaths) in Canada (that's a guaranteed under-estimate and makes things better for Canada, but let's go with it.)
There were about 5 million face-to-face encounters with the cops.
Thus, 65 / 5M = 1.3e-5
So, despite the fact that we have over-estimated the rate for the US and under-estimated the rate for Canadaa, we get the same rate.
quote:
As a quick sanity check, look at the orders of magnitude.
Yes, and they check out: The cop-death rate and the interaction rate have the same order of magnitude difference: About 7%. Since Canada has only 10% of the population of the US, we shouldn't be surprised at the numbers.
California has about the same population as all of Canada and it averages around 100 people killed by police each year, the overwhelming number being in LA (though this last year, it was up to 157 with more than a third in LA). We're just under halfway through the year and California has 42 killings.
quote:
There are two orders of magnitude more police shootings in the numerator in the US but only 1 order of magnitude more in the denominator.
You need to check your math. When your sanity check doesn't match the actual calculation, reconsider what your sanity check is. Orders of magnitude are fine, but they don't do well for numbers near the magnitude, which is what we have here. That's why if you're only one order off, you need to pay attention to the actual numbers and see if you're dealing with border cases.
quote:
Another significant problem seems to be that the number of deaths by shooting in the US is 1,000 but you seem to use all police deaths for Canada, not just shooting. There were only 29 deaths by police shooting in Canada.
Nope. 65 confirmed deaths. You really need to do your homework.
Jeff Shantz: At least 65 people died through interactions with police in Canada in 2017
The provincial and territorial breakdown is as follows:
British Columbia: six deaths
Alberta: 10 deaths
Saskatchewan: four deaths
Manitoba: six deaths
Ontario: 22 deaths
Quebec: 15 deaths
Nunavut: two deaths
Three deaths occurred on First Nations.
As the article points out, it's very difficult to get good numbers regarding the number of deaths at the hands of the police in Canada because they simply don't track that information. The US isn't too much better. The Washington Post has a site for tracking them based off reports (Fatal Force), but even they are going off of publicized records. When they compared their numbers to the FBI, they had twice as many deaths compared to what was reported to the FBI. For my calculation, I was going off the WP's numbers.
But as the Canadian source says, they are in a worse position than the US because the media in the US is more likely to provide information:
The public is left with an inaccurate view of the issue and is given to be a bit complacent about the real toll of killings by police in Canadaunlike the situation in the U.S., for example, where police killings of civilians are reported in much greater detail (including names of officers responsible) and are documented by various sources.
There is more transparency in the U.S., and information is made available publicly with less delay. Even basic information, like the names of victims, is not released publicly in Canada. Victims’ names are typically only given where family members release them or in rare cases where there are charges against officers.
quote:
But the evidence so far does seem to suggest that interacting with the Canadian police force rather than a US police force was a big advantage.
Nope. The evidence so far does seem to suggest that interacting with the Canadian police force rather than the US police force means you're just as likely to be killed.
You want to avoid getting shot by the cops, you want to go to the UK or Australia. But then again, the gun laws are very different there, so it's not a very good comparison.

Rrhain

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.

Minds are like parachutes. Just because you've lost yours doesn't mean you can use mine.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 55 by Modulous, posted 05-11-2018 11:59 AM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 58 by Modulous, posted 05-11-2018 5:14 PM Rrhain has not replied

  
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