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Author Topic:   Important upcoming elections
Coyote
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Posts: 6117
Joined: 01-12-2008


Message 16 of 30 (810380)
05-28-2017 11:28 PM
Reply to: Message 15 by NoNukes
05-28-2017 11:24 PM


Re: Californian Lt Governor (running in 2020 for Gov) for single payer! Legislature favs.
I looked up the section of the proposed law defining "resident" and that's what I quoted.

I didn't see any restrictions beyond that.

Here's a link to the current text of the bill:

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/...s/billTextClient.xhtml


Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.

Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein

In the name of diversity, college student demands to be kept in ignorance of the culture that made diversity a value--StultisTheFool

It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers

If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle

If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1

"Multiculturalism" demands that the US be tolerant of everything except its own past, culture, traditions, and identity.

Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other points of view--William F. Buckley Jr.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by NoNukes, posted 05-28-2017 11:24 PM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
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LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1218
Joined: 12-22-2015


(1)
Message 17 of 30 (810381)
05-29-2017 12:14 AM
Reply to: Message 14 by Coyote
05-28-2017 9:36 PM


Re: Californian Lt Governor (running in 2020 for Gov) for single payer! Legislature favs.
You assume that the only type of person who will come is someone who can't contribute to the state?

Why not make an assumption that the state will attract all types of people?

It isn't clear that giving poorer people health care security won't have larger economic benefits anyway.

It must be pointed out that there is a distinction between an entire nation adopting a health care system, based on funding primarily from the taxpayers being directly taxed upfront, and a narrow section alone adopting the specific policy - while the larger body of the nation remains under the older ( better or worse ) system.

There comes a risk of a race-to-the-bottom when the latter is the situation one looks at. The feared race isn't the certain situation. The certain situation is a more productive economic climate as the certain change (before the race to the worst part of the world factors in ).

When California is part of a nation that employs 1.5 million workers in the fundamentally unproductive health insurance industry, then you have an amazingly high (1%) percentage of the workforce choking Californians and Americans at large.

We hear alot about the diminished wage gains of nonmanagerial private sector workers and the lack of keeping up with the growth in the national average per person yearly income. The general economic theory is that the wages in the group will tend to rise a certain amount which will be proportional to the combination of the inflation rate PLUS productivity rate. Low productivity growth will suggest smaller non inflation adjusted wage growth.

Do you want your tax and/or consumer dollars going to medicine or insurance bureaucrats ?

Do you want your dollars going to nurses or insurance company execs?

To Doctors or some pencil pusher in Delaware?

And Doctors can spend at least 60% more of their PAID TIME taking care of patients with a switch to single payer so how could you fear a population increase of ( highly unlikely to rise by anywhere near ) that amount?

I will take investment in health related technology over the anti-technology, anti-research insurance companies any day of the week. Any such day will be alot more productive than today's anti-science moment (a sorry moment with longer momentum which hurts our future badly )

Californian will lower its bill per person in a single payer healthcare system.

Californians will live in a more productive state .

But will the taxes be higher than the current health insurance requirements and standard business expenses?

What will happen when taxes cause an overall higher upfront cost?

Will the more productive overall economic dynamic handle the competing tension of the taxes which are an economic force in their own right?

Healthcare has been rising as a percentage of GDP. But our national per capita income has never been $50,000 higher than the per capita healthcare cost as it is about to be. The simple fact is that there is a larger and larger economic pie brought about by growth. The economic growth comes from higher productivity for one (major ) thing.

We have to be aware of the macroeconomic forces and make sure that the benefits of the policy changes are explained.

Long term benefits being understood are a key part of the health of the economy because CONFIDENCE is a fundamental reality in the economic climate and the actual conditions - both in the here & now AND ( naturally ) the future.


This message is a reply to:
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NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 18 of 30 (810387)
05-29-2017 4:25 AM
Reply to: Message 16 by Coyote
05-28-2017 11:28 PM


Re: Californian Lt Governor (running in 2020 for Gov) for single payer! Legislature favs.
I looked up the section of the proposed law defining "resident" and that's what I quoted.

That is not sufficient to answer my question, is it? Have you read the proposed bill?


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1218
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 19 of 30 (814347)
07-07-2017 11:40 AM


NYTimes"Democrats also want Mr. Heller...may be their only shot at picking up a seat"
Democratic party with perhaps 1 gross pickup opportunity in the Senate.

Democratic party chances are better in the house. I am amazed to say that there are 23 seats that Hillary Clinton won which the Republicans hold.

The Democrats need 24.

These are very confusing situations though because many of them were once safe GOP seats like Virginia -10 (a super high educated district that couldn't vote for Trump ) but swung mightily and gave Hillary a slight win.

There are 7 such districts in California alone.

I expect the Republicans to at least break even in the Senate but Democrats can really make it hard to pass to many things if the Republicans can get their House majority nocked down to say 223-212 from around 243-192 presently.

Trump might just make it possible as he lost alot of typically Republican seats.

(On the other hand, Democrats lost in the once Democratic leaning state of Montana in a congressional district so they might have a bigger brand problem than the GOP. Ohio Democratic party star Tim Ryan feels his party stinks worse than the Trump GOP and he might be right )


    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1218
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 20 of 30 (837847)
08-09-2018 11:29 PM


Cruz now under 50% (leads Democratic opponent 49-43) (was 50-39)
And while we are looking at Ted Cruz and Texas, it seems that the exit polls that had Trump getting 34% against Hillary Clinton's 61% were flawed.

From this site, I quote

https://www.chron.com/...leground-voters-oppose-13115263.php

quote:

A Latino Decisions 2016 poll “was controversial in its assertion about the amount of Latinos that voted for Trump,” Jones said. That post-election survey said that only 19 percent of Hispanics voted for Trump, while exit polls put the number closer to 30 percent.

Barreto said that the controversy arisen from comparing the LD post-election data with exit polls, "which have been thoroughly debunked by numerous academic studies and embarrassing results last year, including in Texas." He said studies have shown that "they have bad Latino samples in their surveys with as little as 5 percent representation." The Associated Press news agency announced earlier this year that they are not using exit pools anymore for their inaccuracies and are instead developing a different system to produce their own surveys.


https://www.azcentral.com/...-latino-voters-arizona/94288570

https://www.ap.org/...ion-voter-survey-to-replace-exit-polls

Also see December 2 2016 Washington Post article saying Trump did NOT win 34% of the Hispanic vote in Texas.

This means that the pro deportation Ted Cruz might bomb out with Hispanics in Texas (as Trump seems to have done despite the exit polls), thus he could loose (I think he will win albeit narrowly).

Democrats nominated a superb candidate in Arizona (a congresswoman who was one of the few Democrats who opposed mental health discrimination - the bill disguised as "good gun policy" - and she is a politician who supported Nader in the past). Republicans are going to have a hard time painted her as a "socialist" because she is the most bipartisan Democrat there is according to the voting record. And the first ever openly bisexual means it is a historic election.

(This election will really help Democrats in Arizona who are still hurting by the Gabby Giffords stain, a congresswoman who claimed to support gun rights when first elected in 2006, but then turned against them rather strongly)

Kirsten Sinema is at heart a progressive (despite here wise bipartisan votes) and supports rights for all. She will help the Democratic brand. I knew who she was years before she ran for congress in 2012, because she was frequently on television defending immigrants in Arizona.

Arizona and Nevada look like Democratic pickups.


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Coragyps
Member
Posts: 5344
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 21 of 30 (837892)
08-10-2018 2:26 PM
Reply to: Message 20 by LamarkNewAge
08-09-2018 11:29 PM


Re: Cruz now under 50% (leads Democratic opponent 49-43) (was 50-39)
Just to update folks on the title of this post and the one before: Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz are polling essentially equal right now. Those of us supporting Beto are cautiously optimistic, though now is the time for dirty campaigning to fire up.....
This message is a reply to:
 Message 20 by LamarkNewAge, posted 08-09-2018 11:29 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
1.61803
Member
Posts: 2777
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 22 of 30 (838065)
08-13-2018 12:53 PM


Melissa Howard doubles down
So basically a GOP candidate being called out for faking her credentials.
She then doubles down by posting her fake credentials,

and thus having her diploma confirmed as fake.

TIP: If your going to fake your credentials do not post your fake credentials all over the internet.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/...l-says-her-diploma-is-fake


"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1218
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 23 of 30 (839421)
09-08-2018 12:28 AM


Cruz leads by 4% and 1% in 2 most recent polls.
See Real Clear Senate polls section for those.

But here is an interesting article.

Cruz is trailing Hispanics 54% to 31% (while the Republican Governor is only trailing by 6% against a Hispanic Democratic opponent)

https://www.texasmonthly.com/...ad-texas-poll-may-not-matter

quote:

The closest O’Rourke and Cruz poll is in Houston, where the Republican comes within five percentage points of his challenger. O’Rourke has a lead of 45 percent to 40 percent among Houston-area Hispanics who responded. In Dallas-Fort Worth, O’Rourke’s margin bumps up significantly, where he enjoys a 51 percent to 39 percent advantage over Cruz. And along the border, it’s a Democratic blowout in the U.S. Senate race. The Rio Grande Valley polled 61 percent to 22 percent in favor of O’Rourke. And in O’Rourke’s hometown of El Paso, the margin of his lead is 68 percent to Cruz’s 20 percent.

Hispanic voters statewide said that immigration and border security is the most important issue facing Texans, with a 20 percent margin. The economy polled second at 15 percent and health care followed closely behind at 12 percent among the 625 respondents who were polled between August 20 and August 22.

While the numbers may be welcome news for Democrats, who have consistently trailed in political polls this year, it does point to a strategic challenge. Hispanics now make up about one-third of the state’s registered voters, but they remain unreliable voters on Election Day. Eight of the state’s 36 congressional districts are Hispanic majority, according to voting records with the Texas Legislative Council. Voter turnout in those districts for the last gubernatorial race in 2014 averaged 25 percent among Hispanics. The average turnout in the other 28 congressional districts that year was 35 percent. Overall, Hispanic turnout was 14 percent while white turnout was 66 percent.


I haven't followed the race, and don't know much about the Democrat.

But I heard he wants to "decriminalize" illegal immigration border crossings, whatever that means.

The "decriminalize" word is a famous technical term when it comes to drug policy, but I wonder how big of a deal this is for immigration policy. (It sounds big, but Republican talking points make any policy that isn't 100% anti-immigration sound like some radical anti-nationalistic turn WHICH WOULD BE AWSOME IF IT REALLY WAS)


    
Taq
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Posts: 7553
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 24 of 30 (839581)
09-10-2018 4:54 PM


How many Democratic hearts have been broken based on the hope of Democratic voters turning out for midterm elections? Lots.

Perhaps this year will be different, but I won't believe it until I see it.


Replies to this message:
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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1218
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 25 of 30 (839680)
09-12-2018 8:41 PM
Reply to: Message 24 by Taq
09-10-2018 4:54 PM


On hopes and dreams (despair among Texans) brought by Democrats.
I was just looking at turnout among Hispanics in Texas.

It is low, really low.

https://www.texastribune.org/...ge-year-heres-who-doesnt-vot

In 2012, 59.8% of whites turned out, but only 27.7% of Hispanics and 23.8% of Asians.

(61.1% of blacks turned out, but blacks dropped a lot nationwide in 2016)
https://www.brookings.edu/...-in-2016-minority-voter-turnout

In 2012, Texas saw minority voters make up just over 40% of the electorate, and whites cast 5,087,000. Hispanics cast 1,890,000 and Asians 214,000 (blacks cast 1,352,000 votes).

Now, Hispanics would have been at 4 million had they turned out at the same rate as whites. Asians would have been at 500,000.

That was 2012, when Romney won Texas 58% to 40%

McCain won 55% to 43%.

quote:

Texas is consistently in the bottom five states for voter turnout. In the 2010 election, about 41 percent of eligible voters turned out nationwide, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In Texas, 32 percent did. That means Rick Perry was elected to his third full term by just 17 percent of the state’s eligible voters.

....

In fact, if Texas Latinos participated in politics at the same rates they do in other Latino-rich states—California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona—then Texas would already be a swing state. Texas has about the same percentage of Latinos as California. If they had turned out at the same rates as Anglos in 2008, 1.2 million more Latinos would have voted, according to Census figures. McCain beat Obama in Texas by 951,000 votes.

https://www.texasobserver.org/...o-few-texans-bother-to-vote


But look at the healthcare situation (in 2012 which was before the ACA made a decent dent in the uninsured Texans)

quote:

Latino voters in Texas are in many ways a natural target for progressives. In Harris County, 55 percent of Latino adults between 18 and 64 years old have no health insurance, compared to 11 percent of Anglos. Nearly half of adult Hispanics in Texas don’t have a high school degree, compared to 8 percent of Anglos. Only 11 percent of Hispanics have a college or graduate degree, compared to 33 percent of Anglos.

https://www.texasobserver.org/...o-few-texans-bother-to-vote


National numbers.

From 2012 to 2016, national eligible voter numbers show that Hispanics jumped from 10.8% of total eligible voters in 2012 to 11.9% in 2016. (actual turnout portion of national vote was 9.2% in 2016, up from 8.4% in 2012).

Asians were 4.0% of the eligible vote in 2012, and 4.7% in 2016. (turnout portion of vote was 3.1% in 2012 and 3.7% in 2016)

Blacks went up from 12% of eligible vote in 2012 to 12.3% in 2016. (turnout dropped from 12.9% in 2012 down to 11.9% in 2016)

Whites fell from 73.4% of eligible votes in 2008 to 71.1% in 2012. Then down to 68.9% of eligible voters in 2016. I assume the numbers will be between 66.5% and 67.0% in 2020. (But whites are still 73.3% of the actual vote as of 2016)

Back to Texas.

Another Texas poll (today on 9/12/2018 from CBS) has Cruz only up 46% to 42%.

Pro Deportation Republican verses a fairly Pro Immigration type of Democrat.

EDIT

But I must add that I saw commentary that stated that minorities were just under 50% of eligible voters as recent as 2017. 49% was the number I saw. So these sources might be off a bit. See my links for the numbers. The Texas numbers have me wondering.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1218
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 26 of 30 (839681)
09-12-2018 9:12 PM
Reply to: Message 25 by LamarkNewAge
09-12-2018 8:41 PM


Re: On hopes and dreams (despair among Texans) brought by Democrats.
It seems that the 2012 numbers were correct, but the percentage was screwed up.

First, here are 2016 numbers compared to 2012 race.

2012 White 5,087,000

2016 White 5,905,000

2012 Asian 214,000

2016 Asian 338,000

2012 Hispanic 1,890,000

2016 Hispanic 1,938,000

2012 Black 1,352,000

2016 Black 1,349,000

Looks like 62% (white vote) to 38% (minority vote) in 2016 before mixed race and Native Americans are factored in.

quote:

Turnout among Texas Hispanics eligible to vote — citizens 18 and older — in 2016 slightly improved, increasing to 40.5 percent from 38.8 percent during the 2012 presidential election, according to U.S. Census data released Wednesday. The small increase is a discouraging sign for those who expected a spike in Hispanic turnout.

....
Only black and Asian Texans saw significant changes in turnout compared to the last presidential election. Considering those eligible to vote, black turnout dropped from 63.1 percent in 2012 to 57.2 percent last year. Meanwhile, turnout among Asians — a small sliver of both the state's overall population and the electorate — jumped up from 42.4 percent to 47.3 percent.

....
The Census estimates offer the first glimpse at a breakdown of turnout by race and ethnicity in the November election at a time when Hispanic turnout was highly anticipated to swell. But election watchers probably shouldn't take much stock in what the 2016 numbers could mean for the upcoming midterm elections — Texas’ dismal voter turnout is even worse during non-presidential years.

https://www.texastribune.org/...spanic-turnout-2016-election


Regardless, Hillary only lost by 9.0%, and Texas might just be trending significantly toward a voting direction which requires the Republicans to be PRO IMMIGRATION if they want to win.

Florida, Arizona, and Texas are seeing lots of super close races.

Arizona Governor Ducey is only ahead of his Democratic challenged Garcia by 4% and the anti immigration GOP Gubernatorial candidate in Florida in trailing a progressive black by 3% in several polls.

Garcia has been described as an "open borders" dreamer due to comments. (something about telling people to imagine no southern border).

The Republicans are going to be forced to put up pro immigration candidates if they want to win nationally. Perhaps in 2020 to 2024 but 2028 seems certain.

And Social Security will be in severe trouble due to way to little immigration, so lets hope the anti immigration side gets the blame it deserves (for that and the much reduced GDP - from way too little immigration - hurting our debt to GDP ratio in a rather dramatic way).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by LamarkNewAge, posted 09-12-2018 8:41 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

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Phat
Member
Posts: 11132
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.2


(1)
Message 27 of 30 (839682)
09-13-2018 8:01 AM
Reply to: Message 26 by LamarkNewAge
09-12-2018 9:12 PM


Re: On hopes and dreams (despair among Texans) brought by Democrats.
LNA writes:

...lets hope the anti-immigration side gets the blame it deserves (for that and the much-reduced GDP - from way too little immigration - hurting our debt to GDP ratio in a rather dramatic way).

Amen! The bottom line is that we need immigration to fund social security if nothing else. The populists simply need to make sure their kids are educated rather than being as whiny and entitled as we were!

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. –RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." –Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo

This message is a reply to:
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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1218
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 28 of 30 (839719)
09-13-2018 7:18 PM
Reply to: Message 27 by Phat
09-13-2018 8:01 AM


Re: On hopes and dreams (despair among Texans) brought by Democrats.
Phat said:
quote:

The populists simply need to make sure their kids are educated rather than being as whiny and entitled as we were!

To me the issue touches on the "free stuff" and "socialism" fear-mongers.

Look at this quote again (see my above few posts just before Phat responded), and do note that Harris County includes the entire city of Houston (though by no means limited to it).

Note (again) that Houston has nearly 2.5 million people and is almost half Hispanic. (the county is about 3 times the population of the city of Houston)

quote:

Latino voters in Texas are in many ways a natural target for progressives. In Harris County, 55 percent of Latino adults between 18 and 64 years old have no health insurance, compared to 11 percent of Anglos. Nearly half of adult Hispanics in Texas don’t have a high school degree, compared to 8 percent of Anglos. Only 11 percent of Hispanics have a college or graduate degree, compared to 33 percent of Anglos.

Hispanics probably outnumber (non Hispanic) whites in Texas.

This is not a small group (and they aren't "liberal" or "entitled" based on what I know of them AND I LIVED IN HOUSTON)

Half lack a high school education.

90% lack a college degree.

Now, does an argument against "free stuff" - because it "costs society" - get support from the Texas situation?

I feel that social programs galore (housing guarantees for those going through schooling in elementary, middle, high, and college schools PLUS food allowances) would ensure fully 5 times the college degree rate among this group (and others).

It would pay for itself.

How could it not?

Populists see education as an "us verses them". Only allow richer communities to get proper education funding. Exclude the poor from getting "free stuff", meaning properly funded K-12 schools in their communities.

"Us verses Them" is the status quo.

Look at the results in the low-tax heaven of eastern Texas.

Hispanics outnumber whites by 2 to 1 in the city of Houston, and blacks also outnumber whites.

Look at the results.

Less than 15% of the 70% (70% = Hispanics and Blacks) have a college education, and only about half can even make it through high school due to the inhumane situation.

(and 1 in 2800 pregnancies is fatal to the pregnant female, meaning that a female with 5 pregnancies have a 1 in 500 chance of loosing her life from it)

Really profitable, huh?

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1218
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 29 of 30 (839720)
09-13-2018 7:33 PM


Ducey (R) leads Garcia (D) in Arizona 51-40. Governor race. FOX poll.
But the same Fox poll has Sinema ahead of McSally 47% to 44%.

Ducey is described as "Open Borders" so it would be awesome if he could win.

Arizona, Florida, and Texas are the big states to watch.

Trump won Arizona by 3.5%

Texas by 9.0%

Florida by 1.1%

Texas has always been a major wild card when looking at "the future". (Minority turnout dropped from 2012 to 2016, with 40% of the vote already being reached in 2012 before dropping to 38% in 2016, despite the higher number of eligible minority voters in 16) It has the potential for a real Democratic conversion.

Florida is down to 54% white, and the minority groups there are eligible to vote in fairly high numbers

(ethnic Cubans and Puerto Ricans are eligible to vote in much higher numbers than other Hispanics)

(Puerto Ricans are now 5% of the population in Florida, though I AM SORRY TO SAY they aren't super-duper liberal like the New York Puerto Ricans that we are all so familiar with)

(Even New York Puerto Ricans are actually somewhat "Pro Life" despite the 95% Democratic party support, and all other Puerto Ricans are HEAVILY - like 80% - Pro Life, as well as conservative on a lot of other issues. So this is actually a complex situation)

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1218
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 30 of 30 (839765)
09-14-2018 10:58 PM


Rasmussen: Gillum (D) 48% DeSantis (R) 42% (Florida Governor race)
Florida is a state that, in combination with Arizona flipping to the Democrats, would have given Democrats the Presidency in 2016.

Texas flipping would have done the trick alone.

These 3 states are the most important.

And this same polling outfit FINALLY gave Democrats something to cheer in the Senate race.

The incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is actually ahead of his Republican challenger (Rick Scott) 45% to 44%.

Democrats can take heart that the incumbent rule (under 50% is bad, and 45% is really bad) doesn't apply here because BOTH candidates are essentially incumbents (Scott is the Governor that won a come-from-behind re-election in 2014, by a 1% margin, largely because he got about 40% of the Florida Puerto Rican vote)

So Democrats are potentially going to take all three of the Senate races in Arizona, Florida, and Texas.

(and what wins they would be since even close losses would indicate growing strength in these 3 most important states)


    
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