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Author Topic:   Important upcoming elections
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 737 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 67 of 79 (843371)
11-17-2018 12:57 AM


5 States of the Future.
Florida (Trump won by 1.1%
Arizona (Trump won by 3.5%)
North Carolina (Trump won by 3.6%)
Georgia (Trump won by 4.8% to 5.8% if I remember correctly)
Texas (Trump won by 9.0%, so my "6 percent" number, in the previous post, was wrong, but it doesn't affect the Senate or Governor race numbers in the rpevious post)

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 737 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 68 of 79 (843517)
11-18-2018 7:29 PM


12 close Texas U.S. Congressional races (Democrats won 2)
First the 2 races the Democrats won.
Pete Sessions of Dallas lost to Collin Allred.
John Culberson of Houston lost to Liz Fletcher.
Now the other 10.
(the higher perecntage is the Republican)
District 2
Dan Crenshaw 52.9%
Todd Litton 45.5%
District 3
Van Taylor 54.3%
Lorie Burch 44.2%
District 6
Ron Wright 53.1%
Jana Lynne Sanchez 45.4%
District 10
Michael McCaul 50.9%
Mike Siegel 46.9%
District 21
Chip Roy 50.3%
Joseph Kopser 47.5%
District 22
Pete Olson 51.4%
Sri Kulkarni 46.4%
District 23
Will Hurd 49.2
Gina Ortiz Jones 48.7
District 24
Kenny Marchant 51.6%
Jan McDowell 48.4%
District 25
Roger Williams 53.6
Julie Oliver 44.7
District 31
John Carter 50.6%
Mary Jennings Hegar 47.6%

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 737 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 70 of 79 (843840)
11-21-2018 8:16 PM


Look at how much worse Trump did than Romney in Texas (House races even closer)
See these 2 links for presidental vote (in 2008,2012, and 2016) in all 435 districts, plus the name and party of most recently elected congressman, to the district, will be shown.
Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012
Daily Kos Elections 2008, 2012 & 2016 presidential election results for congressional districts used in 2018 elections - Google Sheets
Take Dan Crenshaw and district 2. McCain beat Obama 62% to 37%, while Romeny won 63% to 36%. Trump only won 52% to 43%.
Take District 3, where Romney won 64% to 34%, but Trump only won 55% to 41%.
These are still seemingly strong Republican districts, but, then again, Trump won Texas, as a whole, 52% to 43%, yet Cruz almost lost in 2018.
There are lots of (temporary or longer?) Republican vulnerabilities, even in heavily Republican (voting) districts.
Look at New Mexico-2 , where Obama lost 50% to 48% to McCain, 52% to 45% to Romney, and Hillary Clinton lost by 11% to Trump. Democrats just took this seat (surely to loose it in 2-4 years, however) in a big upset.
Even southern New Mexico is difficult for Republicans in a post Trump era (though Trump won it 50% to 39% over Hillary)
See all congressional races, and exit polls in this link below. (scroll to bottom for numbers from each state)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/az

Replies to this message:
 Message 71 by Faith, posted 11-21-2018 9:37 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 737 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 72 of 79 (843849)
11-21-2018 10:48 PM
Reply to: Message 71 by Faith
11-21-2018 9:37 PM


Re: Look at how much worse Trump did than Romney in Texas (House races even closer)
Going from memory, here is what happened in the last 30 years.
Bush won in 1988
The 1990 midterms produced a 267-167 Democratic majority in the House, and 56 to 44 Democratic Senate majority.
(conservative Democrats, as always was the case, gave the Republicans control over what passed though)
Clinton won in 1992
The 1994 midterms gave Republicans a 230 - 204 House majority and a 53 to 47 Senate majority.
Clinton won in 1996
The 1998 midterms gave Republicans a 223 - 211 House majority and a 55 to 45 Senate majority.
Bush won in 2000
The 2002 mid-terms gave Republicans a 229 - 205 House majority and a 51 to 49 Senate majority.
Bush won in 2004
The 2006 midterms gave Democrats a 233 to 202 House majority and a 51 to 49 Senate majority.
Obama won in 2008
The 2010 midterms gave Republicans around 240 seats in the House while Democrats held the Senate 53 to 47.
Obama won in 2012
In 2014, Republicans won a 54 to 46 Senate majority and a House majority of about 243 to 192.
Trump won in 2016
Democrats will have between 232 and 234 seats in the House and 47 in the Senate.
(Republicans took North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida from the Democrats while Democrats took Nevada and Arizona from the Republicans. A net change of 2 seats for the Republicans)
quote:
Trump fared a lot better than previous Presdients
His overall Senate majority fared better than most Presidents in recent(as in the last 3 decades) memory (though Democrats actually won about 70% of the Senate races in 2018).
But the House isn't "a lot better" than previous (recent) Presidents, and might actually be seen as worse.
Clinton saw the Democrats emerge with anywhere from 204 to 211 seats in his two mid-term elections. Add independent Bernie Sanders to that total, and the low water mark was 205 Democratic congressmen elected during the November 1994 mid-terms.
Bush saw 229 Republicans elected in 2002, and 202 in 2006.
(Trump will be worse off than Clinton's 2 midterm elections, and perhaps the same as the low-water Bush midterm)
Obama only saw 192 to 195 Democrats elected in his two midterm elections, so Trump (sort of) blew that performance away.
I suppose that last 3 mid-term elections (2006, 1010, and 2014) can be seen as having incumbent Presidents who saw their respective parties, loose (on average) 5 to 6 more House races in the mid-term elections than Trump's 2018 Republican congressmen/congresswomen.
That still works out to roughly 1% (less than 1.5%) of the 435 member House body.
(Obama's 2010 Democrats matched Trump's 53-47 PRESENT post-2018 election Senate majority, but Obama's Democratic House candidates only won around 195 or so seats, while Trump will have 201-203)
Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 71 by Faith, posted 11-21-2018 9:37 PM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 73 by Faith, posted 11-22-2018 1:46 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member (Idle past 737 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 74 of 79 (843909)
11-22-2018 4:04 PM
Reply to: Message 73 by Faith
11-22-2018 1:46 PM


Re: Look at how much worse Trump did than Romney in Texas (House races even closer)
I didn't describe anything.
I just gave raw numbers of what was won or lost.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 73 by Faith, posted 11-22-2018 1:46 PM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 75 by Faith, posted 11-22-2018 4:08 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
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