Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 65 (9162 total)
4 online now:
Newest Member: popoi
Post Volume: Total: 915,808 Year: 3,065/9,624 Month: 910/1,588 Week: 93/223 Day: 4/17 Hour: 1/1


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 288 of 887 (842020)
10-25-2018 2:42 PM
Reply to: Message 287 by caffeine
10-25-2018 2:24 PM


Re: Boris to the rescue?
but no majority in favour of any compromise between these two positions. I see no solution.
The currency markets seem to be echoing that sentiment. Just before Brexit, the Pound-Sterling was 1.5:1 against the US dollar. It now sits at 1.28:1. I am guessing that the markets in general are foreshadowing a hard Brexit. I am not seeing a lot of optimism on a deal being ratified.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 287 by caffeine, posted 10-25-2018 2:24 PM caffeine has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 293 by Diomedes, posted 11-14-2018 1:26 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 293 of 887 (843203)
11-14-2018 1:26 PM
Reply to: Message 288 by Diomedes
10-25-2018 2:42 PM


Deal almost ready?
Looks like May and her advisers have a draft of a potential new deal that seems to have been endorsed by the EU representatives. Now she has to get it to pass in parliament:
quote:
Theresa May's most senior ministers are deciding whether to back the draft EU withdrawal agreement in a crucial cabinet meeting.
The meeting inside 10 Downing Street is thought to be over-running by as much as two hours.
The prime minister is expected to make a statement afterwards, with the EU publishing the withdrawal documents if it gets the green light from London.
Theresa May seeks cabinet backing for Brexit plan - BBC News
The more right wing conservatives could still try to block it. But it definitely appears as though they may be on the verge of an agreement that satisfies Brussels.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 288 by Diomedes, posted 10-25-2018 2:42 PM Diomedes has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 294 by PaulK, posted 11-15-2018 3:41 AM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 302 of 887 (843240)
11-15-2018 9:58 AM
Reply to: Message 298 by PaulK
11-15-2018 5:20 AM


Re: Three gone already
In addition to Raab, Vara (Minister of State at the Northern Ireland Office) and McVey (Work and Pensions Secretary) have resigned. Vara went before Raab.
The Brexiteers are pulling out. The next question is whether they will try to replace May or just vote down the deal.
Yikes. What's the British term for clusterf*%k?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 298 by PaulK, posted 11-15-2018 5:20 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 304 by PaulK, posted 11-15-2018 11:17 AM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 305 by Tangle, posted 11-15-2018 5:09 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 307 of 887 (843346)
11-16-2018 1:56 PM
Reply to: Message 306 by Pressie
11-16-2018 4:18 AM


Or maybe I missed it. Anyone can refer me to Nigel's recent comments on the Irish border problem?
I found one recent video on youtube with Nigel commenting on the Irish border. But honestly, he isn't offering any concrete solutions. He is just claiming the administration is using it as an excuse to delay or cancel Brexit. Video is below.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 306 by Pressie, posted 11-16-2018 4:18 AM Pressie has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 316 of 887 (844099)
11-25-2018 12:20 PM
Reply to: Message 315 by Straggler
11-24-2018 3:33 PM


There is now a deal. Widely derided as shit by remainers and leavers alike. But Theresa May is pushing it as the only deal in town and so are the EU
The EU representatives are voting in favor of the deal. They actually made their decision in less than an hour. Which leads me to believe that it is likely more favorable to the EU than it is to the UK.
EU leaders agree UK's Brexit deal at Brussels summit - BBC News
I don't know the likelihood of this passing parliament. The odds right now are not in May's favor but there is still a possibility that MPs will grudgingly agree to it since there is little time for an alternative.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 315 by Straggler, posted 11-24-2018 3:33 PM Straggler has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 317 by caffeine, posted 11-26-2018 5:37 AM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 318 by Diomedes, posted 11-27-2018 10:18 AM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 318 of 887 (844252)
11-27-2018 10:18 AM
Reply to: Message 316 by Diomedes
11-25-2018 12:20 PM


Brexit Deal vote date set for December 11th
Looks like the final verdict on May's Brexit deal is now set for December 11th:
Brexit deal: Theresa May gives herself two weeks to win over MPs | Brexit | The Guardian
Right now, the likelihood of the deal passing parliament appear to be slim. However, considering there is no alternative and the EU has stated they will not negotiate further, I am wondering if various MPs will just grudgingly vote in favor of the deal. It seems the British people are fed up with the bickering and just want them to get on with it.
Naturally, Trump threw a monkey wrench into things when he stated it looks like a deal that heavily favors the EU.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 316 by Diomedes, posted 11-25-2018 12:20 PM Diomedes has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 319 by caffeine, posted 11-27-2018 12:14 PM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 320 of 887 (844272)
11-27-2018 2:31 PM
Reply to: Message 319 by caffeine
11-27-2018 12:14 PM


Re: Brexit Deal vote date set for December 11th
The DUP, of all people, have decided it's better than no deal.
Not all of them:
quote:
Brexit: DUP's Nigel Dodds says Brexit deal 'worse than no deal'
Brexit: DUP's Nigel Dodds says Brexit deal 'worse than no deal' - BBC News
DUP's leader kind of flip-flopped somewhat. She seems to claim the deal is 'propaganda', but at the same time is telling MPs to 'vote in the national interest'.
DUP's Foster hits out at May's Brexit 'propaganda' tour - BBC News
Lot of political shenanigans going on. But I still surmise that when the vote comes, many MPs will simply vote for it since the likelihood of a viable alternative seems to be non-existent.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 319 by caffeine, posted 11-27-2018 12:14 PM caffeine has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 321 by Diomedes, posted 12-03-2018 9:29 AM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 321 of 887 (844640)
12-03-2018 9:29 AM
Reply to: Message 320 by Diomedes
11-27-2018 2:31 PM


More Brexit turmoil
quote:
The UK faces a "constitutional crisis" if Theresa May does not publish the full legal advice on her Brexit deal on Monday, Labour has warned.
The PM says the advice is confidential, but some MPs think ministers do not want to admit it says the UK could be indefinitely tied to EU customs rules.
Sam Gyimah, who quit the government on Friday, said releasing the advice was "key to restoring trust in politics".
Brexit backstop plan is calculated risk - Geoffrey Cox - BBC News
It seems the quagmire has gotten worse. I had honestly thought that having a deal in hand might finally cement the situation. But it appears to be causing the opposite effect. Another key Brexit minister resigning just exacerbates the situation.
From what I read, there is a strong possibility that this deal will fail in the House of Commons. If that happens, what's next? Vote of no confidence? Labour is also pushing for another referendum. Although the time frame seems to short to accommodate that.
Currency markets seem to be leaning towards a Hard Brexit outcome. The Pound Sterling is now at 1.27 to the US dollar.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 320 by Diomedes, posted 11-27-2018 2:31 PM Diomedes has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 322 by PaulK, posted 12-04-2018 4:03 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 325 of 887 (844776)
12-05-2018 9:55 AM
Reply to: Message 324 by Pressie
12-05-2018 6:33 AM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
Now, the government has been held in contempt. For the first time in known history that an entire government is in contempt of parliament. I wonder if they get a plaque for that?
Regarding the options, it appears we have three:
1. The deal gets voted on an wins; judging by the turmoil, it appears highly unlikely this will occur. But as mentioned earlier, it is possible that the strident Brexiteers may decide it is better to vote for this deal than risk the possibility of a worse deal or another referendum.
2. The deal gets voted on, loses, and there is a hard Brexit. Personally, I doubt this will occur. It appears no one, including the British people, want to see no deal after all these shenanigans.
3. A second referendum after the deal is voted down. In all honesty, this now appears to be the most likely scenario. The real question is what will that referendum actually ask. Will it be a referendum on the deal itself, asking the British people if it should be adopted? Or will it include the option of cancelling Brexit all together? The fact that an EU representative has now stated on record that the triggering of Article 50 can be reversed, it is possible that Brexit may end up not occurring.
There is one alternate option I didn't mention which is also a possibility: the deal gets voted down and Theresa May gets a no confidence vote or resigns. This could set the stage for Boris Johnson stepping in. If that occurs, my suspicion is he may just opt for a hard Brexit ultimatum. Maybe trying to put the screws to the EU. Although I doubt that would have much effect. Unless he can argue that a Norway or Canada style deal is still possible.
Interesting times lay ahead.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 324 by Pressie, posted 12-05-2018 6:33 AM Pressie has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 326 by caffeine, posted 12-05-2018 1:15 PM Diomedes has not replied
 Message 332 by PaulK, posted 12-10-2018 3:31 AM Diomedes has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 328 of 887 (844812)
12-05-2018 3:05 PM
Reply to: Message 327 by PaulK
12-05-2018 1:21 PM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
So they are now providing some details on the legal advice pertaining to the deal and it appears that the main issue (not surprisingly) is the backstop aspect regarding the Irish border.
Brexit: Legal advice warns of Irish border 'stalemate' - BBC News
quote:
Theresa May's Brexit backstop plan risks a "stalemate" and "protracted rounds of negotiations" with the EU, the full legal advice on her deal says.
Newly published documents show the PM was told an arrangement designed to prevent a hard Irish border could last "indefinitely" and the UK could not "lawfully exit" without EU agreement.
The Democratic Unionists said this would be "devastating" for the UK.
But Mrs May rejected SNP claims she has misled Parliament on the issue.
The part of this that is likely troubling for the existing prime minister and her government is if parliament determines she did mislead with her statements, that could trigger a no confidence vote. I don't know how that would play out and if they would delay the actual vote on the deal if that came to pass. Hard to say.
The main concern is if the prime minister loses her positions and that triggers a rush to appoint someone else to helm the party, that is just going to exacerbate the situation in my mind. The EU has its flaws, but it is looking mighty stable relative to the UK right now. So all the machinations of parliament may end up completely undermining their bargaining position.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 327 by PaulK, posted 12-05-2018 1:21 PM PaulK has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 329 by Straggler, posted 12-08-2018 9:16 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 330 of 887 (844979)
12-09-2018 3:10 PM
Reply to: Message 329 by Straggler
12-08-2018 9:16 AM


Re: The French are Revolting
Brexit turmoil rumbles on. In my view a second referendum is becoming increasingly likely. But what do I know...?
A definite possibility. Although I have no idea what the second referendum might entail. Would it just be asking the same question before? Stay versus leave? Or would they want something more elaborate?
Labour seems to want a referendum that has something like May's Deal, No Deal or Cancel Brexit. I don't think that would fly since it is obviously stacked in favor of Remain. The conservative vote would be split across two options while the liberal vote would just be relegated to one.
I think the bigger quagmire will be the near term fallout from the vote if May's deal loses. Which appears likely. But by how much is in question. I think there is a strong likelihood that if her deal loses badly, she may either resign or be forced to resign in a vote of no confidence. If that occurs, then all bets are off.
In other news riots in Paris are underway for the second weekend in a row. Anti Macron. But as far as I can tell wholly unwelcoming to Le Pen and her mob too.
The far left and far right elements seem to have made strange bedfellows. Ultimately, the tax appears to not have been well thought out. It places added pressure on working class individuals who need to drive for a living. France's taxes are already quite high as well. So I guess there is only so much blood one can get out of a stone.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 329 by Straggler, posted 12-08-2018 9:16 AM Straggler has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 334 of 887 (845012)
12-10-2018 11:06 AM
Reply to: Message 333 by PaulK
12-10-2018 8:57 AM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
And now it seems that May wants to delay (she says defer) the vote on her deal and renegotiate the Irish backstop
Seems that is official now:
quote:
Theresa May says she has called off Tuesday's crucial vote on her Brexit deal because it would be "would be rejected by a significant margin".
She said MPs backed much of the deal she has struck with the EU but there was concern over the Northern Irish backstop.
But she said she believed she could still get the deal through if she addressed their concerns.
And that, she added, was what she intended to do in the next few days.
She said she would be speaking to EU leaders ahead of a summit later this week.
Theresa May calls off MPs' vote on her Brexit deal - BBC News
Well that is going to be interesting. The EU leaders had stated beforehand that the current deal was 'the only deal'. Not sure how receptive they will be to starting another round of negotiations.
The Pound-Sterling is getting hammered again. Now has dropped to 1.25 to the US dollar. All the uncertainty is causing major issues in the currency and stock markets.
I happened to watch an Intelligence Squared debate about Brexit on the weekend. Was fairly interesting. It's not up on their Youtube channel yet. But in a nutshell, it was three individuals discussing the three potential options on the table. May's Deal. No Deal/New Deal. And finally, a New Referendum. I'll provide a link once its up on Youtube.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 333 by PaulK, posted 12-10-2018 8:57 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 335 by PaulK, posted 12-12-2018 4:09 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 336 of 887 (845101)
12-12-2018 9:31 AM
Reply to: Message 335 by PaulK
12-12-2018 4:09 AM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
According to BBC News, it seems the majority of conservative MPs still support her:
Theresa May awaits result of Tory MPs' confidence vote - BBC News
quote:
So far, 174 Tory MPs have publicly said they will vote for her, with 34 publicly against, according to BBC research. She needs to secure the votes of 158 MPs to survive.
So if that spread holds, she may end up solidifying her position. If she loses, its going to wreak havoc on the already existing Brexit turmoil.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 335 by PaulK, posted 12-12-2018 4:09 AM PaulK has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 337 by Tangle, posted 12-12-2018 11:34 AM Diomedes has replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 338 of 887 (845157)
12-12-2018 4:03 PM
Reply to: Message 337 by Tangle
12-12-2018 11:34 AM


Re: Even more Brexit turmoil
Just flipped on BBC News and it appears May has won the confidence vote. So she will stay at the helm for now.
Still doesn't solve the problem of the Brexit deal. But at least it should silence some of the more strident voices in her party. Probably reduces the likelihood of anyone calling a general election as well.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 337 by Tangle, posted 12-12-2018 11:34 AM Tangle has not replied

  
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 995
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


(1)
Message 346 of 887 (845196)
12-13-2018 9:26 AM
Reply to: Message 345 by AZPaul3
12-13-2018 9:16 AM


Re: Proud as an Eagle
Can someone please explain some of the details of the Irish situation in this controversy? What are the issues there?
The main issue to resolve is that the government is trying to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland; which is still part of the UK.
The lack of a border was part of the original Good Friday agreement. When both the Republic of Ireland and the UK were part of the EU, this is a non issue since free movement between countries is part of the EU edict.
However, now that the UK is leaving the EU, this essentially eliminates the current 'soft border' that exists. To help alleviate this problem, Theresa May's current deal has an 'Irish Backstop' provision which allows Northern Ireland to operate somewhat independently from the rest of the UK to avoid the need for a hard border. But the provision in the deal leaves this situation very ambiguous and could theoretically exist indefinitely. This has caused deep concern for members of the UK parliament and the DUP in Ireland, since they are still strongly affiliated with the UK.
The following Youtube video explains May's deal in more details:

This message is a reply to:
 Message 345 by AZPaul3, posted 12-13-2018 9:16 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 357 by AZPaul3, posted 12-13-2018 4:21 PM Diomedes has not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024