Ukraine's future

So as we are all seeing unfold the future of Ukraine is becoming ever more uncertain.Will Ukraine become a westernized part of the EU.OrRemain a state tied to the Federation of Russia?
What are the ramifications of either?
Will Russia begin a Anschluss?I fear President Putin is already mobilizing along the eastern border and has unmarked troops in Crimea.
This is of course speculation.
Any forumite thoughts on this?Coffee House if promoted.

Thread copied here from the Ukraine's future thread in the Proposed New Topics forum.

This is definitely tricky due in large part to the country being divided in its own views. The western part is more pro-Europe. But the eastern part has always had strong ties to Russia. So opinions across the country will vary wildly. It could be a powder keg.The worst case scenario would be civil war. I sincerely hope it doesn't come to that.

Whatever happens its gonna be bad, there is no real chance for non violence.Worst case scenario its the spark that lights the powder keg for ww3, though the chance for this is small though existent.If Ukraine moves twords Europe, the half of Ukraine that is pro Russia will get violent, if they go t words Russia the part that is pro Europe will get violent.The least violent solution would be to split Ukraine down the middle though nobody wants that so it will never happen.The real problem are the powers at play here Russia and the US lets face it The EU wont lift a finger if Russia occupy's Ukraine, but the US would. The media war on both sides would claim that the Ukrainians want this as the country is split, and it may be enough to galvanize the people for a real ware.

Oh please god, holy virgin mary, don't get us into another decade war. Please US stay out of this one. Let Europe take care of it.

I agree that we should stay out of it....my question is who lit the fuse to begin with? Why must everything be decided through violence? What Is Russia’s Aim in Ukraine?

quote:

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Simferopol, Ukraine (CNN) -- Russia's upper house of parliament voted unanimously Saturday to approve sending Russian military forces into Ukraine, amid mounting tensions in the country's Crimea region.

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Seems like its due to the fact that the pro Russian Ukranian president was ousted...now they have a new guy...and they owe Russian money. typical. This whole money thing! I say the world oughta dump the wealthy and leave them holding the debt! Edited by Phat, : No reason given.Edited by Phat, : No reason given.

The fuse has been burning for a long time. Ukraine stands between Russia and the sea so Russia has wanted it ever since they discovered ships.

It's actually also tactical not just because of the access to the ocean, but because it is the only port that Russia can leverage during winter. All their other ports in the north become frozen. So losing Crimea would cause them to lose a huge tactical advantage by potentially bottle-necking their navy.

Bad, yes... another Russia -- Georgia conflict maybe??? But why do you think it could spark off WWIII? I have always figured that WWIII would most likely come as a result of the Israel / Arab conflict.Do you think this would put the EU at odds with Russia? Is that where you are thinking the "powder keg" could come from?HBD

Cause everybody is getting real trigger-happy, Syria could have been the spark both Russians and the US had ships there but thankfully the people said no.But Ukraine could be used by the media to galvanize the people on both sides. The Eastern media would claim Ukraine wants to be under Russia, and the west is just picking a fight, the western media would claim Russia is a tyrant trying to pick on the little guy Ukrainians dont want it we have to go and help. If on both sides the people buy in to the propaganda we can get a nasty war.p.s. the EU is basically the bitch of america so the opinions of our Eu leaders wouldn't count much

I doubt this could ever escalate into a world war. To be frank, the notion of world wars is probably no longer likely due to the global village and the fact that so many countries have their economies intertwined.From the USA perspective, the folks here are VERY war weary. The last thing they want is to get into a conflict with the likes of Russia. That isn't some backwater country that we can easily take over. That is a massive military with nukes. So any large scale escalation is remote.

The outcome will be exactly what Putin wants it to be.Obama has already shown that he is weak and not even paying attention. If he can't fix the problem with a speech then its time to hit the golf course.Putin figured him out a long time ago.

The best outcome, and in the end, the inevitable outcome, is an amicable divorce. I figure the nation will be split roughly along the lines of the Dnieper river, east goes to Russia annexed outright or more likely as a client state while west goes to EU.If Russia had been a bit nicer to the Ukraine, perhaps the western half would not hate them as much. But when your past has one of the two named genocides in history, the Holodomor, forgiveness may be a bit tricky.Edited by anglagard, : Wrong river

OK, we know you hate Obama like any good "conservative" is ordered to do by Fox News and their ilk.So what do you suggest the great Satan do?You know EvC forum is not YouTube comments or 4chan /b/ right?Edited by anglagard, : misspelled title

Conservatives have no solutions. All they have is complaining, whining and bitching.What do they think the USA should do, attack Russian troops?The actions outlined by Sec Kerry today seem to be very prudent and much more likely to garner success than war would.
Freezing assets, restricting trade and visas, while rallying the international community, is probably a very good move.Now if Putin turns off the gas all bets are off. Europe will be forced into bolder actions. Turning off the gas is a very dangerous gamble for Putin. The Russian economy is not and has never been particularly strong. They are basically a kleptocracy. The billionaires created by the russian kleptocracy are not going to willingly see their fortunes go down. Also, they have China poised at their backdoor looking for away to distract their people and the world from their internal problems. Russia also has its own internal dissent. Dagestan, Chechnya and Ossetia are not that far away from the Ukraine.Putin is playing a very dangerous game. But I think he has forgotten that in international politics you want to play the long game. Winning the battle is no good if it doesn't help you in the long term. Also, he is relying solely on the force of arms, which might help him get his foothold, but he lacks the resources needed to win the game.The western world can cripple the Russian economy without force of arms. It may not be as exciting for the arm chair generals and special forces wannabes that proliferate throughout the conservative and libertarian movements, but it would be more effective and cost less in money, materiel and lives.Unfortunately, the conservative and libertarian movements in the US only care about the money in their individual bank accounts, lose of materiel is a way to war profiteer and fuck everyone elses lives.