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Author Topic:   The Dunning–Kruger effect
RAZD
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Message 1 of 30 (795070)
12-05-2016 12:42 PM


quote:
The Dunning–Kruger effect

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which an unskilled person makes poor decisions and arrives at erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to realize their mistakes. The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, ...

... while the highly skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. This leads to the perverse situation in which less competent people rate their own ability higher than more competent people.* It also explains why actual competence may weaken self-confidence: because competent individuals falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. “Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.”

Similar notions have been expressed–albeit less scientifically–for some time. Dunning and Kruger themselves quote Charles Darwin (“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge”) and Bertrand Russell (“One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.”). ... Similar notions have been expressed–albeit less scientifically–for some time. Dunning and Kruger themselves quote Charles Darwin (“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge”) and Bertrand Russell (“One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.”).


All politicians fall into this to different degrees, one need only look and the DNC and Democratic Party leadership to see their incomprehension of their faults in the last election, ... Clinton, Pelosi, Wasserman-Schultz, etc etc etc ...

... but Donald Trump is the new poster child of this effect.

Enjoy

{Note from Adminnemooseus - There is a small existing topic that will be supplanted by the new topic.}

Edited by Adminnemooseus, : Note.

Edited by RAZD, : * strike through inaccurate statement in article


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Adminnemooseus
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(1)
Message 2 of 30 (795072)
12-05-2016 7:50 PM


Thread Copied from Proposed New Topics Forum
Thread copied here from the The Dunning–Kruger effect thread in the Proposed New Topics forum.
    
caffeine
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Message 3 of 30 (795087)
12-06-2016 4:04 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by RAZD
12-05-2016 12:42 PM


This leads to the perverse situation in which less competent people rate their own ability higher than more competent people.

This is not what Dunning and Kruger found. A quick look through their original paper on the topic instead shows that most people rank themselves as being similar in ability; including the very best and the very worst performers. Observe the below figure:

Note that the fact often pointed out as the central point of the Dunning-Kruger effect, that the worst performers rate themselves as better than the best performers, is actually not true. The ranking by self-reported ability is the same as the ranking by actual performance; only the variance is grossly underestimated. Of the four experiments conducted in the original study, the biggest divergence from accurate ranking was experiment 2:

The top quartile still reported their ability to be higher than anyone else did; and the most important point again (to me) is how little variance there is in people's self-reported abilities.

It seems to me these experiments have been grossly over- or misinterpreted. All Dunning and Kruger showed was that the majority of people rank themselves as being a bit above average at everyday skills, regardless of actual ability.


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RAZD
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Message 4 of 30 (795092)
12-06-2016 6:46 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by caffeine
12-06-2016 4:04 AM


competence vs opinion of competence.
Thanks for the correction.

Let me put it this way then:

Everyone thinks they are above average in competence, but the average Joe has less competence than they think they have.

People in the lowest quartile (highly incompetent) have the most highly inflated opinion of their competence, while people in the highest quartile (highly competent) have a slightly depressed opinion of their competence (unless they are Sheldon Cooper).

Edited by RAZD, : .


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RAZD
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From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 5 of 30 (795101)
12-06-2016 9:43 AM


Picking advisors ...
Message 1: All politicians fall into this to different degrees, one need only look and the DNC and Democratic Party leadership to see their incomprehension of their faults in the last election, ... Clinton, Pelosi, Wasserman-Schultz, etc etc etc ...

... but Donald Trump is the new poster child of this effect.

Message 4: Everyone thinks they are above average in competence, but the average Joe has less competence than they think they have.

People in the lowest quartile (highly incompetent) have the most highly inflated opinion of their competence, ...

So is it possible for an incompetent person to consistently pick competent people as advisors?

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
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RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
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Stile
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Message 6 of 30 (795102)
12-06-2016 9:58 AM
Reply to: Message 4 by RAZD
12-06-2016 6:46 AM


Other factors?
To be honest, when I rate myself at something I generally tell people I'm worse than what I actually think I am.
Reason: I'd rather them be impressed than let down when they actually see what I can do.

So I see this fitting into the effect in the way I would report my performance.
But I don't see this fitting into the effect since it's not accurate as to how "I rate myself."

Is this sort of idea taken into account anywhere along the line?

I suppose if someone really, importantly (and I believed them) asked for my true-thoughts about how I rate myself... I would tell them. But I don't know if that would be high or low (probably still low... as this affect indicates).

Just sayin'.

Edited by Stile, : Removed "I don't care" part because it seems to be incorrect


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jar
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(2)
Message 7 of 30 (795103)
12-06-2016 10:02 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by RAZD
12-06-2016 9:43 AM


Re: Picking advisors ...
The rule of sixes and nines.

Nines tend to hire those folk who might be able to do the job better than the person doing the hiring as their assistants and then train them to replace the hiring party so that person can move on to a new challenge.

Sixes though only hire those people who do not pose a threat.


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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1.61803
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Message 8 of 30 (795104)
12-06-2016 10:03 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by RAZD
12-06-2016 9:43 AM


Re: Picking advisors ...
RAZD writes:

So is it possible for an incompetent person to consistently pick competent people as advisors?

One can only hope at this point. I am not to happy about seeing
Rudolph Guiliani in contention for Sec State. He is,imo, absolutely a bat shit crazy ideologue, the thought of him in that position makes me nervous.
Sarah Palin for any position is imo just nuts.
Donald Trump for President....imo freakin insane and yet here we are.
All bets are off we are in for interesting times.


"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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RAZD
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Posts: 18240
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 9 of 30 (795250)
12-09-2016 12:03 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by 1.61803
12-06-2016 10:03 AM


Re: Picking advisors ...
RAZD writes:

So is it possible for an incompetent person to consistently pick competent people as advisors?

One can only hope at this point. I am not to happy about seeing Rudolph Guiliani in contention for Sec State.

Or Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney ...

Certainly the list of bad picks is growing.

quote:
Trump's cabinet picks: here are all of the appointments so far

... here’s who Trump has appointed so far

Defense
James N Mattis, 66, ... Has called for a “new security architecture for the Mideast built on sound policy …Nicknamed “Mad Dog”. Read further

Homeland security
John F Kelly, 66, ... (was) commander of the US southern command, a role in which he was responsible for US military activities and relationships in Latin America and the Caribbean, including the controversial detention facility at Guantánamo Bay. ... Read further

CIA director
Mike Pompeo, 52, ... After the Boston Marathon bombings in 2013, Pompeo falsely claimed that US Muslim organisations and religious leaders had not condemned terrorism. He called those at the CIA who participated in torture “heroes, ... Opponent of closing the detention facility at Guantánamo Bay, a vocal critic of the Iran nuclear deal and a supporter of NSA bulk data collection. Has called for “the traitor Edward Snowden” to be executed. Read further

Treasury
Steven Mnuchin, 53, campaign finance chairman. Former Goldman Sachs, hedge funder and Hollywood producer ... Swooped on doomed IndyMac bank as it sunk in the 2008 housing crash, acquired it and scored when the federal government bailed out the bank. They call him the “foreclosure king”. ... Announced he would oversee “the largest tax change since Reagan” and said his “No 1 priority is tax reform”.Read further

Attorney general
Jeff Sessions, 69, ... An immigration hardliner who was an early Trump adopter, becoming the first senator to back the eventual winner. Sessions’ last confirmation hearing, for a federal judgeship under Ronald Reagan in 1986, was derailed when former colleagues testified that he used the N-word, called a black assistant US attorney “boy” and joked that he thought the Ku Klux Klan were “OK until I found out they smoked pot”. Has emphasised “law and order”, seen by some liberals as a coded phrase for discriminatory policing of minorities.
Read further

Labor
Andrew F Puzder, 66, restaurant executive operating fast-food chains including Carl’s Jr and Hardee’s. Vehement critic of government regulation and staunch opponent of minimum wage laws and the Fight for $15 movement. Blames Obamacare for increased labor costs and has diagnosed a “government-mandated restaurant recession”. Read further

Health and human services
Tom Price, 62, six-term Republican congressman from Georgia. Orthopedic surgeon staunchly opposed to Obamacare. Became chair of the House budget committee in 2015. Attempted in 2015 to defund Planned Parenthood through a budget maneuver. Seen as opponent of women’s health programs. Described as having “a 100% pro-life record”. Read further

Housing and urban development
Ben Carson, 65, ... a critic of government welfare, has called for private charities to shoulder welfare needs. ... no government experience. A purveyor of bizarre conspiracy theories and a provocateur who compares abortion to slavery and same-sex marriage to pedophilia. ... Read further

Environmental protection agency administrator
Scott Pruitt, 48, ... A climate change denier and longtime enemy of the EPA, whose rule he has called “unlawful and overreaching”. Part of legal action waged by 28 states against the EPA to halt the Clean Power Plan,... Environmental groups say that Pruitt has been a “puppet” of the fossil fuel industry. Read further

Commerce
Wilbur Ross, 79, billionaire investor known for aggressive moves to agglomerate and sell failing steel- and coal-industry interests. ... Dubbed a “vulture” and “king of bankruptcy” because of his knack for extracting a profit from failing businesses. Helped Trump keep control of his failing Taj Mahal casino in the 1990s by persuading investors not to push him out. An explosion at a mine in West Virginia, which his company had bought a few weeks earlier, killed 12 miners in 2002. Read further

Transportation
Elaine Chao, 63, former secretary of labor and deputy secretary of transportation. Married to the senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell. Daughter of a shipping magnate, she made more than $1m from serving on the boards of News Corp, Wells Fargo, Ingersoll Rand and Vulcan Materials in 2015, public records show. Read further

US ambassador to the UN
Nikki Haley, 44, governor of South Carolina. ... Fluctuating popularity. Praised for signing legislation to remove the Confederate battle flag from the grounds of the state capitol and for leadership after 2015 mass shooting at a historic African American church in Charleston. Endorsed Marco Rubio in the Republican primaries and jabbed at Trump in a reply to the State of the Union address she delivered for the Republican party in January 2016. Read further

Education
Betsy DeVos, education secretary. Daughter-in-law of Richard DeVos, co-founder of marketing company Amway. The family has a net worth of $5.1bn, according to Forbes. Her lobbying for school vouchers has been criticised for undermining public sector schools (which critics note neither she nor her children attended). DeVos’s brother is Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater, a private security contractor notorious for its lucrative and deadly role in the Iraq war. Read further

Cabinet-level jobs not requiring confirmation

National security adviser
Michael Flynn, 57, ... A close Trump adviser known for his scandalously broad-brush criticism of Islam and flirtation with conspiracy theories. A vocal critic of the Obama administration. Flynn has falsely claimed that Sharia law is spreading across the US and that the nation is in the midst of a world war with radical Islamists. “Fear of Muslims is RATIONAL,” he tweeted earlier this year. Son recently booted from the Trump transition team after tweeting credulously about fake news. Read further

Chief of staff
Reince Priebus, 44, chairman of the Republican national committee. Wisconsin native and a steady hand when things get weird. Once criticized for a failure to stand up to Trump, in retrospect praised for winning over his party’s insurgent and ascendant president-elect. It’s pronounced Rynz like “pints” or “Eins” and Pree-bus Read further

Chief strategist
Steve Bannon, 63, campaign CEO, former chairman of Breitbart News. Harvard, Goldman Sachs, documentary film-maker, and Seinfeld, of all things. Boasted that he made Breitbart the “platform for the alt-right”, in reference to the far-right movement in the US. His web site was a clearinghouse for hate speech of all kinds including white nationalism, anti-semitism, immigrant-hatred and misogyny. Seen as opponent of the institutional Republican party, a former sharp critic of House speaker Paul Ryan. Read further


A viper's nest of conspiracy nuts, islamophobic wingnuts and self-serving ideologs.

Oh and then there is ...

quote:
Linda McMahon picked to be Small Business administrator

President-elect Donald Trump picked Linda McMahon, former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, to serve as the administrator of the Small Business Administration, his transition announced Wednesday.

"Linda has a tremendous background and is widely recognized as one of the country's top female executives advising businesses around the globe," Trump said in a statement. "She helped grow WWE from a modest 13-person operation to a publicly traded global enterprise with more than 800 employees in offices worldwide."

He continued, "Linda is going to be a phenomenal leader and champion for small businesses and unleash America's entrepreneurial spirit all across the country."


Because small business is just like pro-wrestling ...

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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RAZD
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Posts: 18240
From: the other end of the sidewalk
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Message 10 of 30 (795251)
12-09-2016 12:04 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by 1.61803
12-06-2016 10:03 AM


duped
duplicate

Edited by RAZD, : .


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xongsmith
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(1)
Message 11 of 30 (795254)
12-09-2016 2:35 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by jar
12-06-2016 10:02 AM


Re: Picking advisors ...
jar offers a rubric of business:

The rule of sixes and nines.

Nines tend to hire those folk who might be able to do the job better than the person doing the hiring as their assistants and then train them to replace the hiring party so that person can move on to a new challenge.

Sixes though only hire those people who do not pose a threat.

Well, if a 6 turned out to be a 9, I don't mind....- Jimi Hendrix


- xongsmith, 5.7d

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RAZD
Member
Posts: 18240
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 12 of 30 (795261)
12-09-2016 8:17 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by xongsmith
12-09-2016 2:35 PM


Re: Picking advisors ...
And then there is 7 of 9 ...

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
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AZPaul3
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Message 13 of 30 (795272)
12-10-2016 7:03 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by RAZD
12-09-2016 12:03 PM


Too lazy to look up where I read this but my favorite quip about Trump appointments is that he is putting arsonists in charge of the fire stations.
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RAZD
Member
Posts: 18240
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.9


(1)
Message 14 of 30 (795310)
12-10-2016 9:01 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by AZPaul3
12-10-2016 7:03 AM


oh no ... it's spreading ...
quote:
Outbreak of Dunning Kruger Disease spreads to all 50 states

The CDC and FDA have confirmed that there are now over 5 million confirmed cases of Dunning-Kruger Disease (DKD), with all 50 states reporting cases.

“We regret to announce that all 50 states are now reporting several cases of DKD” said CDC epidemiologist Mark Webber. “DKD is characterized as expressing or believing that one has vast and expert knowledge in a subject which they actually do not. It most often presents in the fields of medicine and science.”

There is currently no known cure for DKD, but scientists are hopeful with more education and isolation, it can be contained.

“We haven’t seen this level of DKD since Jenny McCarthy started spreading her vaccine causes autism bullshit” said Webber. “I fear the DKD level will continue to rise as more and more people with DKD have access to the internet, as well as there being several celebrities with the disease.”

Some say the worst part of DKD is that the carriers have no idea they are infected, nor how easily they can spread it to others.


Running double blind tests isn't working -- they started out in a blind.


we are limited in our ability to understand
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RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
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RAZD
Member
Posts: 18240
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 15 of 30 (795313)
12-10-2016 9:55 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by AZPaul3
12-10-2016 7:03 AM


Secretary of State
quote:
Secretary of State Pick Cements Governance by Oil Industry, Says Science Group

President-elect Trump’s decision to nominate ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson for secretary of state is a grave error, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

Below is a statement by Ken Kimmell, president of UCS. Kimmell is also the former commissioner of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection and previous Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative board chair.

“The nomination of ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson for secretary of state, coupled with that of Scott Pruitt for EPA, shows that President-elect Trump is creating a government of, by, and for the oil and gas industry. Never before have we seen such a concentration of extreme wealth and privilege in a single cabinet.

“This position calls for someone able to put national security and the well-being of Americans first and foremost. But Tillerson’s close ties to President Putin and Russian oligarchs call into question his ability to deal firmly with Russia, which attempted to disrupt U.S. elections according to U.S. intelligence agencies.


O

M

G

The many little wars the US has been involved in for the last several decades have all been about oil ... just not so blatantly.


we are limited in our ability to understand
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