Understanding through Discussion


Welcome! You are not logged in. [ Login ]
EvC Forum active members: 114 (8796 total)
Current session began: 
Page Loaded: 10-21-2017 12:01 PM
346 online now:
Coyote, kjsimons, Meddle, Modulous (AdminModulous), Percy (Admin), ringo, Tanypteryx (7 members, 339 visitors)
Chatting now:  Chat room empty
Newest Member: jaufre
Upcoming Birthdays: Flyer75
Post Volume:
Total: 820,969 Year: 25,575/21,208 Month: 1,202/2,338 Week: 323/450 Day: 16/72 Hour: 0/2

Announcements: Reporting debate problems OR discussing moderation actions/inactions


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
1
2Next
Author Topic:   Important upcoming elections
jar
Member
Posts: 29449
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.3


(1)
Message 1 of 19 (802744)
03-19-2017 8:47 PM


There are six vacancies in Congress that will require special elections to fill. It is essential that as much support for liberal candidates as possible gets focused on those six seats.

They are outlined in this article from Ballotpedia.org

Then there are are 23 Democratic seats, eight Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018 and it is essential that all 23 Democratic seats remain in Democratic control as well as at least three of the incumbent Republican seats get overturned.

Let's work to see that it is impossible from the Trump Administration to fill any Judgeships after 2017.


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Coyote, posted 03-19-2017 10:28 PM jar has responded
 Message 3 by LamarkNewAge, posted 03-19-2017 11:43 PM jar has not yet responded

  
Coyote
Member
Posts: 6014
Joined: 01-12-2008
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 2 of 19 (802747)
03-19-2017 10:28 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by jar
03-19-2017 8:47 PM


Why is it essential to put democrats in those seats?

A good half the country has contrary opinions.


Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.

Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein

In the name of diversity, college student demands to be kept in ignorance of the culture that made diversity a value--StultisTheFool

It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers

If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle

If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1

"Multiculturalism" demands that the US be tolerant of everything except its own past, culture, traditions, and identity.

Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other points of view--William F. Buckley Jr.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by jar, posted 03-19-2017 8:47 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by jar, posted 03-20-2017 6:57 AM Coyote has not yet responded
 Message 9 by Taq, posted 05-25-2017 11:15 AM Coyote has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 909
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 3 of 19 (802748)
03-19-2017 11:43 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by jar
03-19-2017 8:47 PM


Impossible to get Senate flipped
Wyoming and Utah are 100 percent safe Republican states and Democrats know they have no chance EVER in a statewide federal race. Nebraska is the 4th best performing Republican state (after Wyoming, Utah, Idaho and this analysis is based on overall performance based on multiple factors ) and is a state where the fundamental voter preference guarantees Democrats simply can't win mathematically. That eliminates 3 of the 8 right there. Good luck trying to win Mississippi since white voters never give Democrats so much as 20 percent of the vote for any federal race and it is often far short of that. The best Democrats have done since 1987 in Governors races was a 49 to 47 loss in November 1999 (the election law enabled the Democratic legislature to decide who got to sit in the Governor's mansion when both candidates failed to get 50 percent plus 1) and Ronnie Musgrove never topped 47 percent since then but he took advantage of record black support in 2008 to get 46 percent in a special election for the same seat that is up in 2018. But Democratic performance has taken a nosedive since 2008. Even once strong conservative Democrats got smashed in 2010 in congressional district races plus Democrats lost the legislature. No Democrat can win there. Tennesseans are more fundamentally GOP than ever. The 2012 election saw a former r Democratic performing district become safe GOP when a 1 term GOP incumbent was discovered to have had multiple extramarital affairs ( that lead to multiple abortions) yet a Pro Life Democratic challenger couldn't take the seat back. Texas is a state where Ted Cruz won 58 percent in a high turnout Presidential year and 2012 wasn't a year with a particularly bad climate for Democrats generally. That would eliminate all but 2 seats. That leaves Arizona which is very Republican in non Presidential years and Jeff Flake is a mild mannered Pro Immigration conservative and it is tough to find many weaknesses on
This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by jar, posted 03-19-2017 8:47 PM jar has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by NoNukes, posted 03-21-2017 11:27 AM LamarkNewAge has responded

    
jar
Member
Posts: 29449
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.3


(4)
Message 4 of 19 (802775)
03-20-2017 6:57 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by Coyote
03-19-2017 10:28 PM


To assure that those contrary opinions do not become the force of law.

AbE:

Let me rephrase my answer. Again, I am speaking as a life long Republican. If there was any evidence that the modern Republican Party could field any candidates that were not bat-shit crazy fascists then I would also support those candidates.

Edited by jar, : see AbE:


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Coyote, posted 03-19-2017 10:28 PM Coyote has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 909
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 5 of 19 (802839)
03-20-2017 4:14 PM


Consider this about the November 2016 Senate races (in the history books now).
For the first time in American history, every state that the Democrat won also saw the Senate seats being won by Democrats and every state that the Republican won saw the Republicans win.

Now look at the races in 2018, which are based on having an incumbent that won in 2012.

Nebraska 2012

The most popular Democrat ever in Nebraska, Bob Kerry, lost the open seat (with a retiring incumbent) 58% to 42% to Deb Fischer.

Texas 2012

Ted Cruz won 58% of the vote (and most Hispanics voted for the right-wing Republican in the open 2014 Governors race. And that disgraceful 2014 Democratic opponent now says her biggest campaign mistake was that she didn't go after gun rights even "harder"! Huh? She was a big mouthpiece for Hillary Clinton (over Sanders) in the 2016 Democratic primary, and bragged that Hillary was a "progressive" champion because, when she was asked by reporters, of (and she would only have this as a response) the gun issue.

Utah and Wyoming 2012

Lets not even go there. This is la la land to even talk about these states.

Mississippi 2012

Lets look at the Presidential race, because the very old Republican incumbent in 2012 (who might not be running now) was a politician that has always had a ton of black support (for historical reasons mainly) and it might confuse the issue to look at the Senate race.

Obama lost 56% to 43% in 2008 (though pro-gun conservative Democrats were still doing o.k. in state races plus the federal congressional races) (white Democrats are extinct in Mississippi)

Obama lost 55% to 44% in 2012.

Trump won 58% to 40% in 2016.

Gore only lost 57% to 41% in 2000.

Democrats haven't won a Senate race since 1982 and have lost badly since. They have only won 2 since the 1970 win.

Democrat have lost the popular vote in every Governors race since 1987.

Democrats have tanked in this and so many other states since gun control became an issue again.

Tennessee 2012

Bon Corker is a popular moderate (who won with like 70%), but he actually almost lost the open seat in 2006 (however he only won 51% to 48% against a pro life pro gun black Democratic congressman). Democrats have lost any chance of winning due to the gun issue coming back in December 2012. Republicans never liked Bob Corker.

Trump won easily with way more than 10%.

5 of the states were won by Trump by more than 15% and Texas by 9%.

That leaves Arizona and Nevada.

Trump won Arizona by 3.5% and Jeff Flake will get to run in a low turnout mid term election which will help him a lot. He will do at least as good with Hispanics as Trump and likely better due to his pro immigration views. He is a Mormon and his church has made it clear they don't agree with Trump.

Hillary won Nevada by 5% so perhaps Dean Heller can be defeated.

Democrats can win no more than 2, but the bigger question is if they take any seats at all.

And that is a question about the gross level.

On a net level they could loose 8 seats nationwide and I would still mean they are winning the majority of races (17 to 16). That would give the Republicans a super majority of 60 seats in the Senate.


    
NoNukes
Member
Posts: 9998
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 6 of 19 (802886)
03-21-2017 11:27 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by LamarkNewAge
03-19-2017 11:43 PM


Re: Impossible to get Senate flipped
That leaves Arizona which is very Republican in non Presidential years and Jeff Flake is a mild mannered Pro Immigration conservative and it is tough to find many weaknesses on

I agree that flipping the senate in a single election is unlikely. But the problem with your projections is that generally speaking, in off year senate elections, only a tiny minority of folks participate. A motivated voting block, Republican or Democrat, can change things in a remarkable fashion during these elections.

After the last election, there appeared to be plenty of motivated folks who are adamantly opposed to Trump. Perhaps it will turn out that the past November butt whooping will have some positive results.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by LamarkNewAge, posted 03-19-2017 11:43 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by LamarkNewAge, posted 03-21-2017 3:02 PM NoNukes has acknowledged this reply

    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 909
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 7 of 19 (802904)
03-21-2017 3:02 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by NoNukes
03-21-2017 11:27 AM


Re: Impossible to get Senate flipped
I suspect that you would have to go back to an election like 1974 or 1964 to find Democrats , or Republicans (for that matter), doing so well in a single election as they would need tto do to take the Senate in 2018.

The Democrats would need a 28 to 5 win on election night.

Has that ever happened?

And considering that Hillary only got about 25% of the vote in West Virginia, then what chance does Joe Manchin have?

I really don't see where Democrats can take more than 1 seat or 2 from the Republicans, though I sure can see where Republicans can take more than a few from Democrats.

Democrats really got their clocks cleaned in 2014 and 2016. Their fragile Senate majority was depending on holding a lot of seats in tough territory. They nominated a gun control nut in Montana in 2014 (and lost by 17% as one would expect) for the Baucus open seat. Mark Udall, in Colorado, decided to reverse his pro gun policy he ran on in 2008 and he lost. I think that the Alaska seat was lost due to the national Democratic party hurting Mark Begich.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by NoNukes, posted 03-21-2017 11:27 AM NoNukes has acknowledged this reply

    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 909
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 8 of 19 (810184)
05-24-2017 11:37 PM


Single-payer passes 94-46 in Assembly, has 30 sponsors (needs 31) in 62 member Senate
The Senate has 32 Democrats and 31 Republicans, but Brooklyn Sen. Simcha Felder is a DINO and caucuses with the GOP, so the Senate is Republican controlled.

Democrats are making a major push to take the upper chamber in 2018.

The plan is called the New York Health Act and it has passed in the two previous years only to fail in the Senate.

Third time a charm for this history making public policy attempt?

Trump has brought the GOP brand to a new low, so Democratic chances in 2018 for a Senate takeover make the possibility for an unprecedented passage by 2020 fairly decent.


    
Taq
Member
Posts: 7196
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 3.1


(2)
Message 9 of 19 (810207)
05-25-2017 11:15 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by Coyote
03-19-2017 10:28 PM


Coyote writes:

A good half the country has contrary opinions.

Now that Republican policies are become more of a reality, those opinions may change.

When those people voted for Republicans for Congress, did they send them there to increase the cost of their health insurance? Probably not. Did they send them there to take away social programs and give the money from those programs to the richest Americans? Probably not. Did they vote for someone to kick their grandmother off of Medicaid so she can't afford that nursing home anymore? Probably not.

I suspect that many people voted for Republicans in the abstract because of the tribalist nature of modern politics. They may not like it so much when Republicans policies go from the abstract to the concrete.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by Coyote, posted 03-19-2017 10:28 PM Coyote has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 11 by NoNukes, posted 05-27-2017 5:57 PM Taq has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 909
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 10 of 19 (810298)
05-27-2017 2:15 PM


Felder is ignoring reporters questions about his decision on single payer (undecided
There are 31 yes votes
Probably all 31 Republicans are opposed.

Democrats need the fundamentalist Jew (who considers it against his religious views to do alot of things ) Felder.

Edit: Simcha Felder is the decider. The 2017-2018 path to single payer passes right through the unpredictable Senator from Brooklyn. I imagine he would demand abortion concessions for starters. He also will demand lots of side gifts for his pet causes which will be ridiculed as legal bribery.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


    
NoNukes
Member
Posts: 9998
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 11 of 19 (810303)
05-27-2017 5:57 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by Taq
05-25-2017 11:15 AM


I suspect that many people voted for Republicans in the abstract because of the tribalist nature of modern politics. They may not like it so much when Republicans policies go from the abstract to the concrete.

And yet the polls suggest that Trump's popularity is right around 40%, pretty much the same dumpster it was in before the first healthcare vote failed. I see little to no evidence that Trump's base cares about their healthcare. Heck, there are even folks who voted for Trump only to find their own spouses being kicked out of the country shortly after the election. Surely that could not have been a surprise?

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by Taq, posted 05-25-2017 11:15 AM Taq has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-27-2017 7:45 PM NoNukes has acknowledged this reply

    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 909
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 12 of 19 (810321)
05-27-2017 7:45 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by NoNukes
05-27-2017 5:57 PM


Democratic chances in post Trump era ( also an era of anti-gun Democratic party )
Democrats are in such bad shape that the national party didn't try to win the open Montana seat yesterday. A liberal, Rob Quist, was supported by Bernie Sanders, and came within 6% in a state where Democrats used to win non-presidential national races.

December 2012 was a turning point in many places.

West Virginia has 30% of its population on Medicaid.

In past years, Trump's budget would kill the GOP.

But national Democrats are just too much crazy on divisive social issues.

Simcha Felder is crazy himself, but he has recently said "how dare you tell Democrats how to think " or something.

New York might attract a good many health care refugees to our state if health is a human right.

West Virginia escapees perhaps?

I don't think the Trump budget will be able to pass this Congress though. But the GOP could gain Senate seats in November 2018.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by NoNukes, posted 05-27-2017 5:57 PM NoNukes has acknowledged this reply

    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 909
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 13 of 19 (810377)
05-28-2017 8:22 PM


Californian Lt Governor (running in 2020 for Gov) for single payer! Legislature favs.
It seems that the California situation is that the state needs $200 billion per year in additional revenue (assuming a federal wavier allows the existing $200 billion a year in Medicare and Medicaid funds to be put into a giant pot ) to fund a "free stuff " single payer plan.

A 15% tax would do it for California residents ( includes all types of immigrants as residents provided that they meet minimal residency requirements ).

Perhaps a 7.5% tax on workers matched by employers would be palatable?

Workers are slammed harder by every Obama care requirement ( except for those who somehow work plus qualify for Medicaid ), so there shouldn't be too much complaints - except from the more upper income tier.

Business taxes might not be much different than what they spend on employee health plans presently.

There is nothing that more efficiently takes in revenue than straight wage taxes. I suppose there could be other revenue increase changes to keep the income tax from being the full 15% though.

If the cost ends up being a bit too much for taxpayers to stomach, then perhaps a 10% co-pay of health care would cushion the


Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by Coyote, posted 05-28-2017 9:36 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

    
Coyote
Member
Posts: 6014
Joined: 01-12-2008
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 14 of 19 (810378)
05-28-2017 9:36 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by LamarkNewAge
05-28-2017 8:22 PM


Re: Californian Lt Governor (running in 2020 for Gov) for single payer! Legislature favs.
From SB-562 The Healthy California Act, as amended May 26:

100602 (x) “Resident” means an individual whose primary place of abode is in the state, without regard to the individual’s immigration status.

If California provides free health care for anyone who shows up and declares California to be their "primary place of abode," don't be surprised if half the world shows up.

And when taxes go up and up and up, the productive folks will go elsewhere.

Figuring out the end result is left as an exercise for the student...


Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.

Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein

In the name of diversity, college student demands to be kept in ignorance of the culture that made diversity a value--StultisTheFool

It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers

If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle

If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1

"Multiculturalism" demands that the US be tolerant of everything except its own past, culture, traditions, and identity.

Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other points of view--William F. Buckley Jr.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-28-2017 8:22 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by NoNukes, posted 05-28-2017 11:24 PM Coyote has responded
 Message 17 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-29-2017 12:14 AM Coyote has not yet responded

  
NoNukes
Member
Posts: 9998
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 15 of 19 (810379)
05-28-2017 11:24 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by Coyote
05-28-2017 9:36 PM


Re: Californian Lt Governor (running in 2020 for Gov) for single payer! Legislature favs.
If California provides free health care for anyone who shows up and declares California to be their "primary place of abode," don't be surprised if half the world shows up.

Hey, you are right! If people from all over the world could just declare themselves residents, that would overload any system. It would be disastrous for California to do that.

Now is this really how the system in California is supposed to work, or are you just blowing smoke?


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Seems to me if its clear that certain things that require ancient dates couldn't possibly be true, we are on our way to throwing out all those ancient dates on the basis of the actual evidence. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by Coyote, posted 05-28-2017 9:36 PM Coyote has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by Coyote, posted 05-28-2017 11:28 PM NoNukes has responded

    
1
2Next
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2015 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.0 Beta
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2017