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Author Topic:   US Census Fertility Report found 53.8% females 25-29 childless ( Social Security hurt
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1287
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 1 of 9 (809356)
05-17-2017 11:36 PM


This fertility data was just published this month, and never before has the 25-29 group been majority childless.

The 30-34 female group is much more fertile but the 30.8% childless rate is also a new record.

The majority of the childless female population is college educated.

Social Security was not considered in the report (I don't think anyway ), but the funding shortfall is really being seen as more and more severe with every passing year since the Great Recession.

After the projections showed full funding of future benefits till 2042, for most of the first 21st century decade (2000 up till 2008) of official analysis , that 100% funding limit has been lowered and lowered for the last 9 years till the year of reckoning has now been sunk all the way down to 2029.

2009 began with a 2037 projected year for the funding dropping, based on projected revenue ( which would be strictly Pay As You Go as the surplus would be exhausted thus nothing additional to fund benefits - just the raw day to day payroll tax payments from workers to immediately be used to pay retirees ) , from 100% down to 73%.

Now it is 2029 for the surplus to be exhausted, and then only 71% of benefits can be paid.

My solution is to bring in a ton of very young people from Africa and to start NOW.

There is no other solution honestly.

This thread is a proposal to discuss the various issues covered (fertility alone, Social Security alone, or a combination of both ).


Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by xongsmith, posted 05-19-2017 6:38 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded
 Message 4 by ringo, posted 05-20-2017 11:58 AM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
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Message 2 of 9 (809628)
05-19-2017 5:49 PM


Thread Moved from Proposed New Topics Forum
Thread moved here from the Proposed New Topics forum.
    
xongsmith
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Posts: 1863
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009


(1)
Message 3 of 9 (809629)
05-19-2017 6:38 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by LamarkNewAge
05-17-2017 11:36 PM


LNA asks:

My solution is to bring in a ton of very young people from Africa and to start NOW.

There is no other solution honestly.

This thread is a proposal to discuss the various issues covered (fertility alone, Social Security alone, or a combination of both ).

It's simple: just eliminate the cap on FICA deductions. This isn't even their vaunted flat tax - it gets cut off for the rich above an amount, like 117k! What a deal!

For starters.

Edited by xongsmith, : No reason given.


- xongsmith, 5.7d

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-17-2017 11:36 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
ringo
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Posts: 15766
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 4 of 9 (809713)
05-20-2017 11:58 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by LamarkNewAge
05-17-2017 11:36 PM


LamarkNewAge writes:

My solution is to bring in a ton of very young people from Africa and to start NOW.


You don't need to make an effort to bring more people in. Just stop persecuting the ones who are already in.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-17-2017 11:36 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1287
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 5 of 9 (810971)
06-03-2017 12:23 PM


Look at China, South Korea, and Japan (3 nations tryingn to encourage more births
China is literally paying couples to have more children and has been for awhile.

In 2000, there were 18.5 million 18 year olds entering the workforce. The number of 18 year olds entering the workforce, as opposed to going to college, fell to 10.5 million.

By 2020, the number will fall to 7 million in a nation that will cross 1.4 billion people by then.

Many big job businesses are already starting to leave China for Africa, and I just read about the moves to Ethiopia.

Japan.

The latest population projections have the island nation dropping to 80 million people in 2060. See June 3, 2017 New York Times for shocking article in Business section.

South Korea.

The population has peaked at 50 million people, and the 1.2 birth rate per female means that the nation will loose a good many millions by 2050.

I'm never going to complain too much when nations totaling nearly 1.6 billion people are collectively going to remain at around the same amount by 2050, but it is something that hasn't sunk in HERE in the United States.

I am amazed how many people that I talk to who still think that South Korea is a nation much poorer than the United States.

China is a very difficult nation to understand and especially economically.

The population issues combined with economics are really really really really something to watch with interest.

Immigrants finally getting brought into Japan and South Korea ( in significant numbers ) ? NOT YET!

Necessary for sure.

Necessity will be the mother of increased immigration as a matter of sound and, frankly, required policy.

We better take notice.

Americans better take notes.


Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by NoNukes, posted 07-02-2017 10:45 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
NoNukes
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 6 of 9 (813945)
07-02-2017 10:45 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by LamarkNewAge
06-03-2017 12:23 PM


Re: Look at China, South Korea, and Japan (3 nations tryingn to encourage more births
China is literally paying couples to have more children and has been for awhile.

I have been unable to confirm your statement. I do see articles dated as late as this past March suggesting that China needs to encourage more births, but nothing saying that they are doing so, or that there is a new policy that includes paying couples to have more children.

In fact, China ended the one child policy in 2015. How long is "for awhile"? Months?


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend. Thomas Jefferson

Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith

Some of us are worried about just how much damage he will do in his last couple of weeks as president, to make it easier for the NY Times and Washington post to try to destroy Trump's presidency. -- marc9000


This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by LamarkNewAge, posted 06-03-2017 12:23 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1287
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 7 of 9 (837772)
08-08-2018 10:02 PM


News on China paying for people to have more children.
https://www.newstimes.com/...olicy-and-became-a-11159045.php

quote:

Tara Francis Chan,

provided by

Published 4:53 pm EDT, Monday, July 30, 2018

China ended its "one-child policy" in 2016 after more than 30 years on the books and began letting parents have two children in the hope of sparking a baby boom.
•But the birth rate is still dropping.
•Provinces around the country have started rolling out cash bonuses, wedding subsidies, and miscarriage-prevention leave to encourage more births.
•The government is focusing on "high quality" young, educated, and urbanized women to have children.
•But until employment discrimination ends and more social support is provided, its unlikely these incentives will have an impact.

China ended its "one-child policy" more than two years ago but that has done little to help the country's falling birth rate, and local authorities are now trying everything they can to get women to have more babies.

The government's family planning policy had been in place since 1979, but it lifted the limit to two children in January 2016 to slow its plummeting birth rate. In fact, the government openly stated its wish for millions more infants to be born by 2020, which would add 30 million more laborers to the workforce by 2050.

By December that year, the number of babies born had gone up 8%, but this fell far short of expectations. In 2017, the rate dipped again with 630,000 fewer babies born than in 2016. While the national workforce continues to shrink by millions each year, the immediate problems — and potential solutions — are playing out in individual provinces around the country.

In northeastern Liaoning, more people are dying each year than are being born and the province, together with surrounding regions, reportedly has the world's lowest fertility rate of 0.55 children per woman. Financially, Liaoning has operated at a loss in the past and can't afford to pay pensions, but the provincial government said in July it was considering paying cash bonuses to parents who have a second child.

In the northwestern Shaanxi province, authorities have suggested dropping all limits on children and introducing financial incentives to "increase desire to procreate," and the National Health Commission has researchers reportedly looking into whether tax breaks and other financial incentives would help encourage more people to become parents.

Baby bonuses, which have been paid out in countries like Estonia and Australia, are currently being offered in the city of Xiantao, where parents receive 1,200 yuan ($177) for having a second baby.

China wants babies from "high quality" mothers

Though not strictly a payment for childbearing, the northern Shanxi province in February announced China's first marriage subsidy. The local government will, with the help of an app, pitch in on the cost of wedding photography, event details, honeymoon travel, and even cover 5% of the wedding dress. According to Sixth Tone, the government plans to give out 95 million yuan ($14 million) in local subsidies this year.

And while this is likely aimed at encouraging a move away from lavish and extravagant weddings, encouraging more people to marry is a crucial step towards boosting baby numbers.

Leta Hong Fincher, author of "Leftover Women: The Resurgence of Gender Inequality in China," has written extensively about how China wants "high quality" women — those who are urbanized, educated, and young — to start families. For more than a decade the government has stigmatized single women older than 27 by calling them "leftover" and instead state-run outlets have repeatedly extolled the virtues of young married women having babies while still studying at university.

In 2015, Beijing's office of marriage registration caused an uproar when one of its posters saying: "Being a good wife and good mother is the biggest achievement of a woman," began circulating online.

Miscarriage prevention leave and other benefits

Meanwhile new rules came into effect this month in the eastern province of Jiangsu giving women the right to "fetus protection leave" in order to support national population plans. To try to prevent miscarriages women who have a note from their doctor are able to take days off work in their first trimester and still receive 80% of local minimum pay, at least $250 a month.

But many women do not know they are pregnant at this stage, and even if they do they may still be unlikely to take time off for fear of retribution. Such benefits, along with a national maternity leave policy of 98 days of leave, can also make employers hesitant to hire women and hostile to them in the workplace.

Nationally, women are also entitled to 42 days of leave if they suffer a late miscarriage or least 98 days of maternity leave, and up to 1 year in some regions. But some believe these benefits can make employers hostile to young women in the workplace or hesitant to hire them in the first place.

Earlier this year, a report from Human Rights Watch that analyzed tens of thousands of job ads over five years found women were openly discriminated against in hiring. "Men-only" and "men-preferred" were common criteria, even in government, and some specified women must be "married with children."

Reservations about job security are a strong reminder that social factors, from infant safety to the soaring costs of raising children, are likely to be far bigger factors for potential mothers in years to come than a few hundred dollars in cash.


Here is the original article.

Chinese authorities are offering wedding subsidies and cash payments to lure 'high quality' women into having more babies

Tara Francis Chan

Jul. 30, 2018, 4:53 PM

https://www.businessinsider.com/...ons-women-children-2018-7

China is gaining income, and the latest PPP PROJECTIONS for 2018-20223 for all nations are found in this link.

http://statisticstimes.com/...es-by-projected-gdp-capita.php

China will HAVE a yearly PPP income per person (PPP is purchasing power parity) at $26,086 in 2023 while we will be at $71,805.

India will be at $11,785

The world will be $22,562

The world has never been at 1/3 the PPP income of the United States but 2023 is apparently so close. (this world average includes U.S. income so that inflates the world total)

In 2005 , 15% of the world OUTSIDE THE U.S. had per capita income at half the United States (in PPP)

That went up to 16% in 2014.

I don't know what it is now, but nations like Turkey and Russia should be getting closer.

Poland just hit $31,430 in PPP so they added to the 16%!

We are at $62,152.

Hungary just passed too.

Malaysia (population 31 million) is about to.

Look at some of countries that suffer from out shitty foreign and/or immigration policy.

Russia is at $28,958 and Turkey $28,347 in 2018.

(Turkey has close to 5 million refugees that Europe and United States won't take)

Here is one for resilience.

Iran is at $21,241 today and will still be at $27,188 in 2023.

Iran has some good internal decision making, to be almost at 50% per capita PPP income in 2023 considering all that nation has had inflicted on it.

This is interesting. Seychelles is $30,084 and will be at close to $38,000 in 2023. The country only has around 100,000 people so it wont change the World statistics. But this country lets any AFRICAN come into the country visa free!

If Seychelles can do it then why can't we?


Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by NoNukes, posted 08-09-2018 1:44 AM LamarkNewAge has responded

    
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 8 of 9 (837779)
08-09-2018 1:44 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by LamarkNewAge
08-08-2018 10:02 PM


Re: News on China paying for people to have more children.
Not paying women to have children. Instead they are subsidizing weddings.

Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

"Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World.

Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith

I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith

No it is based on math I studied in sixth grade, just plain old addition, substraction and multiplication. -- ICANT


This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by LamarkNewAge, posted 08-08-2018 10:02 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
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LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1287
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 9 of 9 (837781)
08-09-2018 6:08 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by NoNukes
08-09-2018 1:44 AM


Re: News on China paying for people to have more children.
quote:

Baby bonuses, which have been paid out in countries like Estonia and Australia, are currently being offered in the city of Xiantao, where parents receive 1,200 yuan ($177) for having a second baby.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by NoNukes, posted 08-09-2018 1:44 AM NoNukes has not yet responded

    
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