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Author Topic:   The economy needs a 3% GDP growth to function well
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3537
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 5.6


(5)
Message 1 of 12 (813249)
06-25-2017 4:10 AM


I was listening (on National Public Radio, it might have been a BBC show) to an economist type person saying that the U.S. needs to grow the economy (GDP, apparently not the per capita version) at 3% for things to work well. Not at all an easy thing, and being that we have a baby boomers bulge entering into retirement, such would seem to require a massive increase in immigration to supply the needed workers.

Now, I can kind of see that keeping the GDP in proportion to the population as maybe being a good thing, but even now it seems like a big chunk of production is of things of dubious need.

More production requires more consumption, and we are already (largely) producing more that we have any real need to consume. Production/consumption has gone (for the population as a whole) from bare survival, to comfortable survival, to luxury survival, to "more crap than we know what to do with". Of course, such is most extreme for the 1%, and not happening for a lot of the 99%.

It seems to me that a capitalistic economy is a Ponzi or pyramid or something scheme, that is ultimately doomed to "the big crash".

I guess this topic kind of ties into Faith's Marxism topic.

A friend once said "There is a term for unrestrained/unlimited growth - It's cancer."

Moose

Added by edit (also in message 11):

I tracked down a transcript of the radio show I was listening to:

Is It Realistic? Trump Budget Relies On 3 Percent Economic Growth

Edited by Minnemooseus, : Added by edit...


Professor, geology, Whatsamatta U
Evolution - Changes in the environment, caused by the interactions of the components of the environment.

"Do not meddle in the affairs of cats, for they are subtle and will piss on your computer." - Bruce Graham

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." - John Kenneth Galbraith

"Yesterday on Fox News, commentator Glenn Beck said that he believes President Obama is a racist. To be fair, every time you watch Glenn Beck, it does get a little easier to hate white people." - Conan O'Brien

"I know a little about a lot of things, and a lot about a few things, but I'm highly ignorant about everything." - Moose


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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8799
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003
Member Rating: 8.7


Message 2 of 12 (813276)
06-25-2017 9:48 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Minnemooseus
06-25-2017 4:10 AM


Long Term
Agreed.
When I win the big lottery I will fund some economic research to see if any one can devise an economy that doesn't have to constantly grow and still work.

I think we should be working on that now.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Minnemooseus, posted 06-25-2017 4:10 AM Minnemooseus has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
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jar
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Posts: 29363
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 3 of 12 (813279)
06-25-2017 10:24 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by NosyNed
06-25-2017 9:48 AM


Re: Long Term
There have been many such economies in the past. The biggest issue is the concept of creating demand as a profession.

Or current "Constant Growth" model is actually pretty much an aberration among all the various societies than have existed and also has a history of crash & burn cycles.

A couple possible examples.

I've been shaving lately with a razor that was made in 1919. It provides as close and comfortable a shave as any modern razor of and technology. It is also beautiful and been used by at least three and maybe for generations of my family.

BUT it's still working just fine. It's never needed repairs. I change the blades when they get dull but that is the only disposable part.

We can build things that last. But instead we seem to operate on the "what can I patent that will make all the old stuff obsolete" "let's drive consumption" model.

Making stuff that lasts does not preclude change or advancement BUT when change and advancement exist only in the marketing Medicine Man pitch can we really afford it?


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Phat
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Posts: 9741
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.6


Message 4 of 12 (813281)
06-25-2017 12:05 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Minnemooseus
06-25-2017 4:10 AM


Solutions both short and long term
Moose writes:

It seems to me that a capitalistic economy is a Ponzi or pyramid or something scheme, that is ultimately doomed to "the big crash".

I have always thought this to be true, also. I almost think that the wealthy anticipate crashes and adjust their portfolios to ride each one out. The rest of us are in trouble, though.

Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. –RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." –Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
"as long as chance rules, God is an anachronism."~Arthur Koestler

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frako
Member
Posts: 2705
From: slovenija
Joined: 09-04-2010


Message 5 of 12 (813282)
06-25-2017 12:21 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Minnemooseus
06-25-2017 4:10 AM


Unlimited growth on a limited planet is impossible.

Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand

What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.


This message is a reply to:
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Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6393
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 5.6


Message 6 of 12 (813283)
06-25-2017 12:25 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by frako
06-25-2017 12:21 PM


I suspect the Moose knows that, and that his point is that even if we were to transition to a reasonable economy we would still need to accept lots of immigration to maintain a comfortable standard of living in the meantime.

Moose can clarify if I'm wrong.


Freedom is merely privilege extended, unless enjoyed by one and all. – Billy Bragg

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Replies to this message:
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frako
Member
Posts: 2705
From: slovenija
Joined: 09-04-2010


Message 7 of 12 (813284)
06-25-2017 12:29 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by Phat
06-25-2017 12:05 PM


Re: Solutions both short and long term
I have always thought this to be true, also. I almost think that the wealthy anticipate crashes and adjust their portfolios to ride each one out. The rest of us are in trouble, though.

They dont just anticipate crashes they cause them. Then they place "bets" (puts, calls), and use the money they gained to buy stocks at a low price. A few multi millionares can do this on a smal scale, a lot of them can do this on the world scale.


Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand

What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by Phat, posted 06-25-2017 12:05 PM Phat has not yet responded

    
frako
Member
Posts: 2705
From: slovenija
Joined: 09-04-2010


(2)
Message 8 of 12 (813285)
06-25-2017 12:35 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by Chiroptera
06-25-2017 12:25 PM


I thhink te best option for the world would be to faze out humans as a workforce replace them with robots, use the profits to give everyone a minimum income some kind of score system so those that actually do something for humanity like science or jobs that cant be replaced get more, then slowly faze out money altogether.

Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand

What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by Chiroptera, posted 06-25-2017 12:25 PM Chiroptera has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by Chiroptera, posted 06-25-2017 12:48 PM frako has responded

    
Chiroptera
Member
Posts: 6393
From: Oklahoma
Joined: 09-28-2003
Member Rating: 5.6


Message 9 of 12 (813286)
06-25-2017 12:48 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by frako
06-25-2017 12:35 PM


Rich people would love the robot part but hate the sharing profits part. So we might have to build some robots to drive the tumbrils.

Freedom is merely privilege extended, unless enjoyed by one and all. – Billy Bragg

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by frako, posted 06-25-2017 12:35 PM frako has responded

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frako
Member
Posts: 2705
From: slovenija
Joined: 09-04-2010


Message 10 of 12 (813287)
06-25-2017 12:55 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by Chiroptera
06-25-2017 12:48 PM


Rich people would love the robot part but hate the sharing profits part.

Well they hate the sharing part now , if they dint share there would be no economy because no one would have money to buy their crap, its the reason they play along now and throw some scraps of the table as wages to the masses.


Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand

What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by Chiroptera, posted 06-25-2017 12:48 PM Chiroptera has not yet responded

    
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3537
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 5.6


Message 11 of 12 (813361)
06-26-2017 11:29 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Minnemooseus
06-25-2017 4:10 AM


Radio show source of message 1
I tracked down a transcript of the radio show I was listening to:

Is It Realistic? Trump Budget Relies On 3 Percent Economic Growth

This topic also connects to one of my earlier topics (which I probably could well have used the message 1 content in had I been better organized):

Economic failure because of productivity increases / excessive productive capacity

Another topic I rediscovered in the process of looking for the above:

Keynesian Economics and Recession Counter-Measures

Moose


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Riggamortis
Member
Posts: 167
From: Australia
Joined: 08-15-2016
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 12 of 12 (813394)
06-27-2017 7:15 AM


Money for profit.
In my opinion the problem is that capitalists are in control of creating the capital.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/...rereleasemoneycreation.pdf

http://www.sciencedirect.com/...rticle/pii/S1057521914001070

The answer in the short term at least, is to nationalise currency. Modern monetary theory and interest free credit. This will at least remove the profit motive from money itself.

https://theconversation.com/...-modern-monetary-theory-72095

We sell bonds when we should be borrowing from ourselves and/or spending debt free money into existence as sovereign creators of our currency. In the private sector, that means business and individuals, we borrow money into existence and have to pay compound interest on it. This is such an important issue because it is so bloody fundamental to everything we do. Can't build a wind farm if it's won't pay back principal plus interest and then some, can we?

We need to realise money is fairy dust. The only REAL limitations on what we can do are natural resources, the people to do it and sustainability/enviornmental concerns. So political acceptance of MMT would be a good start, we can then turbo charge our development towards sustainability.

I can't help think that wind plus hydrogen for storage/on demand is the way to go for energy. Wind requires only steel, copper and magnets to generate and hydrogen produces water vapour. When the wind is generating an oversupply we use it up producing hydrogen and burn the hydrogen when the wind dies down.

With abundant sustainable energy we can focus on automation and technology. Then the sky is the limit! Or is it? Perhaps we'll develop the technology to upload our consciousness into a matrix, real heaven? Lol


  
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