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Author Topic:   The spectacular fall of YEC beliefs
Modulous
Member (Idle past 55 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


(1)
Message 1 of 198 (832967)
05-13-2018 5:55 PM


Source material

Between 1982 and 2005 belief in Special creation amongst the American population hovered between 44-47%

2005 was the year of the Kitzmiller trial - a peak year in the evolution vs creationism debate. The year I joined EvCForum!

Between 2005-2011 acceptance in Special Creation dropped from 46% down to 40%, enjoying a brief resurgence in 2012 back to 46% before beginning a five year crash. As of 2017 that number was at 38% - for the first time equalling the number of people that believe in a Theistic Evolutionary perspective.

Since the year 2000 acceptance in evolution alone has gone from 9% to 19%

Since 2000 YEC has dropped in support 0.5 percentage points per year on average, and Evolution alone has increased in its support at the same rate. Education is a big factor in determining acceptance of evolution, theistic or non-theistic. Graduating from college seems to halve the number of people who subscribe to YEC beliefs. Nearly 60% of people accept evolution to some extent now.

It seems evolution is winning the debate against Special Creation, with Theistic Evolution largely unchanged over time. Big court cases (Kitzmiller,2005), flashy productions whining about persecution (Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed, 2008), attempting to change things at a legislative level (Anti-Science bill in Indiana....., 2012) - are either backfiring or merely delaying the decline in YEC belief.

Alongside this trend, an absence of belief in God is rising - especially amongst the young. How long can this debate hold out? Will YEC acceptance continue to crash? Between 2012 and 2017 it dropped 8 points (1.6 points per year). Will we see acceptance of YEC beliefs drop beneath 25% within the decade? Will the rate increase or level out before then?

As the number of believers decrease, the amount of money to be made from them decreases. I believe therefore the decline is practically inevitable, though it may rally a few times before it becomes irrelevant.


Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by Stile, posted 05-15-2018 2:56 PM Modulous has responded
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 Message 181 by mike the wiz, posted 05-26-2018 7:46 AM Modulous has responded

  
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Message 2 of 198 (832969)
05-15-2018 1:47 PM


Thread Copied from Proposed New Topics Forum
Thread copied here from the The spectacular fall of YEC beliefs thread in the Proposed New Topics forum.
    
Stile
Member
Posts: 3257
From: Ontario, Canada
Joined: 12-02-2004
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 3 of 198 (832974)
05-15-2018 2:56 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Modulous
05-13-2018 5:55 PM


Modulous writes:

It seems evolution is winning the debate against Special Creation, with Theistic Evolution largely unchanged over time. Big court cases (Kitzmiller,2005), flashy productions whining about persecution (Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed, 2008), attempting to change things at a legislative level (Anti-Science bill in Indiana....., 2012) - are either backfiring or merely delaying the decline in YEC belief.

Sounds about right to me.

How long can this debate hold out?

On the fringes? Perhaps forever. Like flat-earthers and such.

Will YEC acceptance continue to crash?

I think so, yes. The internet is an amazing tool for young people to grow up with.

To put it in 'old-person-context' they basically have a set of encyclopedia's that's instantly updated while being attached to their hip to check at any instant. The searching mechanisms are also streamlined for their accessibility on any question they could possibly have. And it's thought to be "cool" to use it.

When thought of in that context.. it's pretty amazing.

Will we see acceptance of YEC beliefs drop beneath 25% within the decade?

I don't know. How fast do old people die?

quote:
ďA new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.Ē

-Max Planck


...or something like that?

Modulous writes:

Will the rate increase or level out before then?

My guess is the rate-of-decline will level out or decrease, but the general decline will continue to happen until it becomes nothing more than a fringe-thing.

I believe therefore the decline is practically inevitable, though it may rally a few times before it becomes irrelevant.

Yeah. Pretty much what I think.

But... does this mean we will have a more evidence-driven society?
I don't think so.

I don't think religion is the cause of non-evidence-driven ideas.
I think it's just the main idea that won out historically (ie - was most socially acceptable.)

I think the only thing that will produce a more evidence-driven society is more education.

I think that if education does not increase (quantity AND quality,) then non-evidence-driven minds will simply latch onto something else if religion is no longer the "main non-evidence-driven idea" that is most socially acceptable.

Things like this:

Donít Believe in God? Maybe Youíll Try U.F.O.s

An important note near the bottom of the article:

quote:
A great many atheists and agnostics, of course, do not think U.F.O.s exist. Iím not suggesting that if you reject traditional religious belief, you will necessarily find yourself believing in alien visitors. But because beliefs about U.F.O.s and aliens do not explicitly invoke the supernatural and are couched in scientific and technological jargon, they may be more palatable to those who reject the metaphysics of more traditional religious systems.

With the point:

quote:
Consider that roughly 30 percent of Americans report they have felt in contact with someone who has died. Nearly 20 percent believe they have been in the presence of a ghost. About one-third of Americans believe that ghosts exist and can interact with and harm humans; around two-thirds hold supernatural or paranormal beliefs of some kind, including beliefs in reincarnation, spiritual energy and psychic powers.

These numbers are much higher than they were in previous decades, when more people reported being highly religious. People who do not frequently attend church are twice as likely to believe in ghosts as those who are regular churchgoers. The less religious people are, the more likely they are to endorse empirically unsupported ideas about U.F.O.s, intelligent aliens monitoring the lives of humans and related conspiracies about a government cover-up of these phenomena.


That is, there are plenty of non-evidence-ideas to believe in.
Some are more socially acceptable than others.

If the social-acceptance of religion falls then those who were "religious" (in the sense that it was a non-evidence-driven idea that spoke to them personally) will likely just find another non-evidence-driven idea that speaks to them personally that is still socially acceptable.

It will take a bit more time to get society's head around to treating the problem instead of the symptom.

I think religion is only one symptom and being-attracted-to-non-evidenced-ideas-that-make-us-feel-special is the problem.

"Problem" may be the wrong word.
I don't think it's entirely a bad thing to be attracted to non-evidenced-ideas. Imagination has it's time and place and I think we would be worse off as a living thing if we did away with it.
I think it's simply a frame of mind that needs to be understood and dealt with accordingly as opposed to be allowed to 'run wild' or treated as if it's as good as any evidence-based idea when in competition and looking for a reliable answer.

Edited by Stile, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Modulous, posted 05-13-2018 5:55 PM Modulous has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by Modulous, posted 05-15-2018 5:38 PM Stile has responded

    
Modulous
Member (Idle past 55 days)
Posts: 7789
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 4 of 198 (832982)
05-15-2018 5:38 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Stile
05-15-2018 2:56 PM


When thought of in that context.. it's pretty amazing.

Frankly it's a big enough deal to warrant it's own 'age' / 'revolution' tag. Oh wait.... its utterly mind blowing.

I don't know. How fast do old people die?

It seems that really is the clock, right?

My guess is the rate-of-decline will level out or decrease, but the general decline will continue to happen until it becomes nothing more than a fringe-thing.

Sounds reasonable. Looking at other issues, such as acceptance of homosexual relationships shows a similar pattern. I still expect a catastrophic tipping a point to exist, even though there is no evidence to suggest it. Perhaps when history has played out, 2005-2025 will look like a crash compare with the rest of the data!

However, here's a speculative theory. The numbers dropping of YEC are reflecting in a rise in evolution only. But it doesn't seem realistic to suppose the YEC folks are going directly to evolution only. So I speculate then that many of those take the theistic evolution step as an intermediary but as many of them that join those ranks are leaving them. As YEC goes down below the theistic evolution numbers, the amount of them becoming theistic evolutionists will decrease - but the amount of theistic evolutionists that become evolution only will stay the same, leading to a peculiar spiking motion. Coupled with the tipping point of 'most religious people are theistic evolutionists so that seems like a respectable religious position' as a perception and this point in history may turn out to be a significant one for this debate.

Maybe they're getting stealthier - but the Creationist folks do seem to be less public these days...

Yeah. Pretty much what I think.

But... does this mean we will have a more evidence-driven society?
I don't think so.

Gawd no! Well, maybe a slightly more evidence-driven society - but hardly revolutionary I think.

That is, there are plenty of non-evidence-ideas to believe in.
Some are more socially acceptable than others.

Yeah - and we don't even need to look at outlandish (heh) ideas like alien visitors. There's plenty of opportunities to go off the rails in social attitudes, politics etc.

If the social-acceptance of religion falls then those who were "religious" (in the sense that it was a non-evidence-driven idea that spoke to them personally) will likely just find another non-evidence-driven idea that speaks to them personally that is still socially acceptable.

It will take a bit more time to get society's head around to treating the problem instead of the symptom.

The human condition. Since you raised it, it might be worth noting that we science minded / evidence seeking folk are not immune. Not only can we latch on to bad scientific or social ideas like the rest of humanity - but one could even argue that the 'right' ideas are only accepted because they 'speak to us personally' with evidence being our rationalization. Though, as far rationalizations go - it's a pretty good one


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Tangle
Member
Posts: 6244
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 5 of 198 (833009)
05-16-2018 2:51 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Modulous
05-13-2018 5:55 PM


Mod writes:

Between 1982 and 2005 belief in Special creation amongst the American population hovered between 44-47%

I'm not sure you Yanks realise what a special case you are in modern Western democracies. To us here in Western Europe you're a bizarre combination of primitive superstition and advanced societal development. We (I) can't reconcile iPads and a liberal Constitution with creationism.

The Uk is around 10-15% creationist - which I still find shocking high even though it's mostly hidden so not as obvious as the US. And it seems to be on an increasing trend as immigration from Muslim countries and Estern Europe grows. There's still a very long way to go if you take a world view.

quote:
A 2007 study of religious patterns found that only 8% of Egyptians, 11% of Malaysians, 14% of Pakistanis, 16% of Indonesians, and 22% of Turks agree that Darwin's theory is probably or most certainly true, and a 2006 survey reported that about a quarter of Turkish adults agreed that human beings evolved from earlier animal species.[64] Surveys carried out by researchers affiliated with McGill University's Evolution Education Research Centre found that in Egypt and Pakistan, while the official high school curriculum does include evolution, many of the teachers there do not believe in it themselves, and will often tell their students so.[65]

Currently in Egypt, evolution is taught in schools but Saudi Arabia and Sudan have both banned the teaching of evolution in schools.[66][67] In recent times, creationism has become more widespread in other Islamic countries.[68]

The results of a survey of the adherence to creation science of 5,700 teachers from 14 countries was presented during the 2008 XIII IOSTE Symposium in Izmir, Turkey. Lebanon, Senegal, Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria had 62% to 81% of creationist teachers (with no difference between biologists and others). Romania and Burkina Faso had 45% to 48% of creationist teachers in Romania and Burkina Faso, with no difference between biologists and other in Romania, but a clear difference (p<0.001) in Burkina Faso (with 61% of creationists for the not biology teachers). Portugal and Cyprus had 15% to 30% of creationist teachers, with no significant difference between biologists, but a significant difference in Portugal (p=0.004, 17% and 26%).[69]


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creationism_by_country

I don't think we can rely on the internet - it works both ways there are huge amounts of creationist and religious sites out there and the believers are just as capable with their propoganda as any other tribe; kids can remain inside their creationist bubble quite easily


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Modulous, posted 05-13-2018 5:55 PM Modulous has responded

Replies to this message:
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Faith
Member
Posts: 30034
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 6 of 198 (833010)
05-16-2018 4:47 AM
Reply to: Message 5 by Tangle
05-16-2018 2:51 AM


We (I) can't reconcile iPads and a liberal Constitution with creationism.

That's because you've lost your Christian roots, and lost all sense of history. Biblical young earth creationism is the correct Christian interpretation and it was Christianity that gave us our liberal Constitution and western civilization in general for that matter. Get completely rid of creationism, get completely rid of Christianity and you will also lose all the rest of it as you sink back into paganism.

'With reference to other comments on this thread, this isn't a matter of old folks dying out, this is a matter of the truth of God that gets renewed in every generation. It isn't going away completely. Good news for you if you knew how to appreciate it.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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 Message 150 by MiguelG, posted 05-20-2018 10:17 PM Faith has responded

    
Tangle
Member
Posts: 6244
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 7 of 198 (833011)
05-16-2018 5:30 AM
Reply to: Message 6 by Faith
05-16-2018 4:47 AM


Faith writes:

That's because you've lost your Christian roots, and lost all sense of history.

I'm not particularly familiar with the US constitution but I believe one of its aims was to protect its citizens from fundamantalist belief systems like yours was it not?

Biblical young earth creationism is the correct Christian interpretation

Obviously false.

Get completely rid of creationism, get completely rid of Christianity and you will also lose all the rest of it as you sink back into paganism.

Facts and evidence tell you the exact opposite - though of course you are immune to them. The happiest, most satisfied societies are those with the least belief in religion. Try Scandanavia.

But I suspect you've never left your country to see how the rest of the world works. I once asked you if you own a passport - you didn't answer?


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by Faith, posted 05-16-2018 4:47 AM Faith has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by Faith, posted 05-16-2018 7:25 AM Tangle has responded

  
Faith
Member
Posts: 30034
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 8 of 198 (833015)
05-16-2018 7:25 AM
Reply to: Message 7 by Tangle
05-16-2018 5:30 AM


The Constitution was based on Christian principles, though the main founders weren't Christians and the more I know about them the more I think they betrayed the essence of their own country despite their incorporation of Christian principles into the Constitution. They were total idiots when it came to the destructive influences of other religions.

As for you all being so happy now, how long has that been? It isn't coing to last long. Maybe it will outlive you but not by long. Besides which, to believe you are so happy means you have to shut your eyes to some evidence to the contrary.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by Tangle, posted 05-16-2018 5:30 AM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
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JonF
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Posts: 4256
Joined: 06-23-2003
Member Rating: 1.8


(2)
Message 9 of 198 (833019)
05-16-2018 9:06 AM
Reply to: Message 6 by Faith
05-16-2018 4:47 AM


western civilization in general for that matter

Today's Western civilization is an outgrowth of the Enlightenment (which some prominent YECs call the Endarkenment). Christians gave us the Dark Ages and Calvin's Geneva.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by Faith, posted 05-16-2018 4:47 AM Faith has responded

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Faith
Member
Posts: 30034
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 10 of 198 (833020)
05-16-2018 9:19 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by JonF
05-16-2018 9:06 AM


Sure, the devil knows how to write history too.
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jar
Member
Posts: 30934
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 1.3


Message 11 of 198 (833021)
05-16-2018 9:28 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by Faith
05-16-2018 9:19 AM


As always, you provide absolutely no evidence to support the dogma of your Cult but the authors of the Constitution did provide explanations of why they created the document involved and why they found the greatest threat to the creation of a nation here was Fundamental Christianity. To protect the populus from Fundamental Christianity they included the First Amendment.

quote:
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Like the Bible, the US Constitution is something you might consider reading.


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios † † My Website: My Website

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Tangle
Member
Posts: 6244
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 12 of 198 (833022)
05-16-2018 9:36 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by Faith
05-16-2018 7:25 AM


Faith writes:

The Constitution was based on Christian principles, though the main founders weren't Christians and the more I know about them the more I think they betrayed the essence of their own country despite their incorporation of Christian principles into the Constitution. They were total idiots when it came to the destructive influences of other religions.

I guess you want to withdraw your previous statement then

quote:
it was Christianity that gave us our liberal Constitution and western civilization in general for that matter.

As for you all being so happy now, how long has that been?

Since they shook off superstition.

It isn't coing to last long.

According to Faith who has a proclamation on everything but knows nothing about anything.

Besides which, to believe you are so happy means you have to shut your eyes to some evidence to the contrary.

The irony.....

So, you have no passport and no education, yet you know so much.

Have you ever left your state?


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Faith, posted 05-16-2018 7:25 AM Faith has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by Faith, posted 05-16-2018 9:52 AM Tangle has responded

  
Faith
Member
Posts: 30034
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 13 of 198 (833023)
05-16-2018 9:52 AM
Reply to: Message 12 by Tangle
05-16-2018 9:36 AM


Yes, some 95% of the population at the time of the Constitution was seriously Christian, the schools taught from the Bible and the Westminster Catechism, and the few Deists among the founders betrayed them by removing the Christian inspiration from the Constitution. They were nevertheless soaked in Christian principles and that came through in spite of themselves. The best of the Enlightenment was inspired by Christianity too. But since none of you knows any of that you are eager to get back to tribal paganism and witchcraft, now weirdly justified by Christian principles you do not know the source of.

Edited by Faith, : No reason given.


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Replies to this message:
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JonF
Member
Posts: 4256
Joined: 06-23-2003
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 14 of 198 (833024)
05-16-2018 9:54 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by Faith
05-16-2018 9:19 AM


Sure, the devil knows how to write history too.

Them's the facts. Deal with it.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Faith, posted 05-16-2018 9:19 AM Faith has responded

Replies to this message:
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Faith
Member
Posts: 30034
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 15 of 198 (833025)
05-16-2018 9:56 AM
Reply to: Message 14 by JonF
05-16-2018 9:54 AM


I'm one of the very few here who has a clue how to "deal with" the devil.
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