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Author Topic:   Revolutionary Science
Percy
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Posts: 22499
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 1 of 58 (347317)
09-07-2006 4:21 PM


Bob Colwell and I never met personally, but we attended grad school at the same university at roughly the same time and knew many of the same people. We even apparently worked on the same PDP-11 processor in the same lab, though a year apart.
Since leaving grad school we've gone in diametrically different directions. I went on to fame and fortune in the creation/evolution industry, while poor Bob was stuck at Intel in the roll of chief architect for the Pentium II, III and 4 microprocessors.
Bob is now an independent consultant, and he writes a monthly column for Computer magazine, a publication of the IEEE. His comments in the November, 2004, column reminded me a lot of comments we often get here, and I thought I'd provide the relevant portion:
Bob Colwell in his At Random column writes:

The Speed of Light

What better way to increase the overall quantum connectedness of all things than to speed up light? It's way overdue for improvement, after all. Computers have gotten faster, highway speed limits are increasing to previous levels (evidently to compensate for the increasing effectiveness of safety devices), the overall pace of life has gone from busy to frenetic, and Internet bandwidth is improving. But the speed of light had been a constant for approximately 5.5 billion years, and nobody had done a darned thing about it.
Well, now, somebody has. In Faster Than the Speed of Light: The Story of a Scientific Speculation (Perseus Books Group, 2003) physicist Joao Magueijo provides a captivating look over his shoulder as he tries to push science ahead by taking a clear-eyed inventory of what is working and not working about the best available theories in cosmology. How many physics books have back-cover reviews with words like "racy," "irreverent," or "vicarious thrills" in them? Those descriptions, as it turns out, are quite accurate. This book is a page-turner.
Magueijo's exposition of the Big Bang theory, its connections to Einstein's general theory of relativity, and the holes in today's "inflationary model" is lucid, immediate, and enthralling. He proposes that, regardless of the overwhelming general acceptance of a constant speed of light, if that constant were allowed to vary, it would nicely explain many of the outstanding conundrums of cosmology.

Incremental or revolutionary?

There is also a story-within-the-story. What happens to scientists who propose something revolutionary? The scientific establishment is prewired to encourage certain behavior patterns and discourage others. If you want to get a paper published in a peer-reviewed conference or journal, there are two principal avenues. The first, and by far most common, is to propose an incremental improvement to an existing idea; the second is to propose a revolutionary idea that almost always refutes something that the rest of the field has accepted as doctrine.
How does a researcher convince the field that a new idea is a winner, given the implication that they must all do some uncomfortable neural rewiring to accommodate it? New ideas seldom come with compelling proof and usually appear to be somewhat unlikely. They often originate with one person, which gives them an idiosyncratic and generally shaky appearance; there is little substantive data with which to justify them; and the person proposing the idea is seldom one of the field's trusted authorities. Instead, the revolutionary is often an unknown with no track record.

Finding funding

And then there's the funding "big hammer." Most science requires money, and some science requires large amounts of it. The people at the agencies who control these disbursements are in their positions because they are technically skilled enough to identify promising ideas. But that very skill means they are themselves predisposed to incremental science.
Competently plying her trade, a funding agent will solicit peer reviews, and at least one of those reviews will come back in the form of "This proposal has no investigators with any track record. It makes claims that can't be confirmed from the current state of the art, and there's no compelling data to justify the extrapolated conclusions proffered. All things considered, this proposal doesn't look substantially different from one that might come from a complete crackpot." The funding person could then reject the proposal with high confidence. This process leaves such would-be revolutionaries on their own. All Things Are Rejected.

Challenging the establishment

Following Magueijo's struggle, based on the idea that essentially begins with "Einstein was wrong, the speed of light has not always been a constant," is an incredible ride. It's clear that at some rational level, Magueijo fully understands what he's up against. He says, "Every new idea is gibberish until it survives ruthless challenge. After all, what had motivated my idea [of a varying-speed-of-light, VSL] was precisely my questioning the validity of inflation." Inflation was a theory that tried to "fix" the Big Bang's problems of dark matter and uniformity.
Don't be fooled. While his rational mind understands, Magueijo is human, and he's not afraid to show that side as well. Maybe he's a little too unafraid. But this is ultimately what makes his book compelling. He talks about schools, school administrations, friends, colleagues, English society, girlfriends, conferences, Berkeley ("semi- deranged people constantly sniping at each other"), journals, and many other things, in language you might hear only from a vice president on the Senate floor.

Right or wrong?

Is Magueijo's theory right? Nobody knows yet. This book lays out his rationale and context for it, and Magueijo argues as strongly as possible (in a popular-science style book: no math allowed) that it's plausible. But he stops short of claiming victory. He prefers to predict the reactions of his colleagues: If the theory turns out to be right, he says they will "twist history to claim priority;" if it turns out to be wrong, well, some of them are "desperate to see VSL fall on its face." Welcome to big science.
Sounds like Magueijo would feel right at home among the creationists. Is what he's doing science? He certainly thinks so. And if what he's doing is science, then why isn't creationism?
Apologies for the long cut-n-paste, but this is only accessible to IEEE members, and it's copyrighted, so hopefully my excerpt isn't so long that it isn't really an excerpt.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
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AdminNosy
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Posts: 4754
From: Vancouver, BC, Canada
Joined: 11-11-2003


Message 2 of 58 (347319)
09-07-2006 4:30 PM


Thread moved here from the Proposed New Topics forum.

  
PaulK
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Posts: 17827
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 3 of 58 (347322)
09-07-2006 4:53 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
09-07-2006 4:21 PM


By my understanding Maguiejo is working within the framework of science. He's doing the work, trying to gather evidence, working on theory. Simply proposing a way-out idea contrary to the accepted view doesn't put him on a par with the creationists - not only for the reasons I've given but also because he is working in an area which is more open to speculation because of the limits of our knowledge. It is far more likely that he will be able to make his ideas work than we are going to get a scientific theory of creationism (I've seen no reason to believe that creationists even try to produce one).
Maguiejo's ideas may fall by the wayside - the evidence may turn out to contradict his ideas or theoretical advances may show a more promising alternative. Now Maguijo might, in that case, still keep fighting for his pet theory as Sir Fred Hoyle did for Steady-State or Halton Arp is doing with his ideas on red-shift. That would take him a step towards creationism. But he might not do that.

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Percy
Member
Posts: 22499
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 4 of 58 (347327)
09-07-2006 5:31 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by PaulK
09-07-2006 4:53 PM


But considering his paranoid mindset, can Maguiejo really be considered to be doing science? Having not read his book I can only go by the impression Colwell gives, which is that Maguiejo uses a lot of space attacking the status quo regarding c, and especially its supporters. And his proposal sounds completely ad hoc, a "solution" with no supporting evidence and no supporting theoretical basis. It sounded Velikovsky-ish to me.
--Percy

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jar
Member (Idle past 421 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 5 of 58 (347330)
09-07-2006 5:39 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
09-07-2006 4:21 PM


IMHO definitely science. One quote from the article is significant:
He says, "Every new idea is gibberish until it survives ruthless challenge. ..."
Survive a ruthless challenge.
This is the difference.
Young Earth falls at the first glimpse of a starry sky.
The Flood falls the first time someone actually looks at a stream pouring through a granite bed.
Biblical Creationism cannot withstand even a cursory challenge and exists only through wilfull ignorance.
On the other hand he welcomes challeng and seems to be ready to abandon his idea if it does not survive the desired ruthless challenge.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

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PaulK
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Posts: 17827
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 6 of 58 (347333)
09-07-2006 5:51 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by Percy
09-07-2006 5:31 PM


I don't think you can gather much from just reading a review. I can't see much evidence of paranoia in in the quoted extract. Indeed the main difficulty seems to be funding - which, ironically, is less of a problem for creationists. Creationist organisations seem able to come up with money that could support research - they just do relatively little and it is generally of very bad quality.
IIRC there was some evidence of VSL discovered a few years back - some measurments seemed to indicate that the Fine Structure Constant had changed. I also seem to rememebr that this argument is now largely discredited. But even so my impression is that Maguiejo's work is more speculative than ad hoc - and it is in an area of science which has a lot of speculative work. Although Inflation is still dominant, it too is pretty far from being as well-confirmed as, say evolution, and it may not hold its position of domiance for many more years.

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subbie
Member (Idle past 1282 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


Message 7 of 58 (347338)
09-07-2006 6:03 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by Percy
09-07-2006 5:31 PM


Don't be too quick to dismiss
I haven't read the book either. But there can be no doubt that Magueijo's fears of rejection and ridicule are well-founded, either way. Wegener was visciously ridiculed when he proposed continental drift and died before plate techtonics appeared, convincing the rest of the world that he was in fact correct. And certainly Kuhn and Feyerabend, if they were alive, would testify in defense of the attitude that Magueijo appears to have, if not the specifics of his theory.
It's hard to think of an area of human activity that has a more violent, knee-jerk conservative mindset toward truely revolutionary ideas than science, particularly in a field with a well-established paradigm. About the only thing that comes to my mind is religion. Perhaps it's understandable, given the huge sucking vacuum that exists among the general public about what science is and how it's done, and how so many people rush to accept the latest pseudoscientific crapola that gets dished out in the media. It's also easy to see why science would reject a revolution, given that it might require so many scientists to go back to square one in a field where they have worked their whole lives.
I'd be in no position to evaluate the merits of Magueijo's ideas were I to read the book. (I do find it interesting that he doesn't appear to think he's proven his claim, which would separate him from every other crackpot inventor.) But, as many have said here, science is not a democracy. The mere fact that the scientific establishment rejects an idea is not enough to prove that it's wrong, or that the proponent is a crackpot. He may walk like a duck and quack like a duck, but in the end, the real question is whether he's laid a golden egg of an idea, or a rotten one.
Edited by subbie, : No reason given.

Those who would sacrifice an essential liberty for a temporary security will lose both, and deserve neither. -- Benjamin Franklin

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GDR
Member
Posts: 6202
From: Sidney, BC, Canada
Joined: 05-22-2005
Member Rating: 2.1


Message 8 of 58 (347340)
09-07-2006 6:13 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by jar
09-07-2006 5:39 PM


jar writes:
IMHO definitely science. One quote from the article is significant:
He says, "Every new idea is gibberish until it survives ruthless challenge. ..."
Survive a ruthless challenge.
This is the difference.
Young Earth falls at the first glimpse of a starry sky.
Just being a bit of a devil's advocate here, but I don't quite see it the way you do. If he is right and the speed of light isn't a constant doesn't that throw off all of our calculations about the age of the earth? Maybe it is only 6000 years old.

Everybody is entitled to my opinion.

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Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by jar, posted 09-07-2006 6:22 PM GDR has replied
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jar
Member (Idle past 421 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 9 of 58 (347345)
09-07-2006 6:22 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by GDR
09-07-2006 6:13 PM


Just being a bit of a devil's advocate here, but I don't quite see it the way you do. If he is right and the speed of light isn't a constant doesn't that throw off all of our calculations about the age of the earth? Maybe it is only 6000 years old.
Not at all. If the speed of light is faster then the universe is even bigger than we now think. If it is slower then you quickly run into the problem of packing the visible universe in a smaller space with all of the attendant problems that entails. Packing the visible universe in a 6000 lightyear sphere even at the accepted speed of light would wipe out all life on earth. Make it even smaller????????????????????

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

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Replies to this message:
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Omnivorous
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Posts: 3990
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 6.9


Message 10 of 58 (347346)
09-07-2006 6:25 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
09-07-2006 4:21 PM


Exceprted review writes:
Competently plying her trade, a funding agent will solicit peer reviews, and at least one of those reviews will come back in the form of "This proposal has no investigators with any track record. It makes claims that can't be confirmed from the current state of the art, and there's no compelling data to justify the extrapolated conclusions proffered. All things considered, this proposal doesn't look substantially different from one that might come from a complete crackpot." The funding person could then reject the proposal with high confidence. This process leaves such would-be revolutionaries on their own. All Things Are Rejected.
This reminds me of the business maxim, "Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM." Some people should have been.
In the late 80s, while riding the T in Boston and working on code, I was interrupted by a fellow who was curious about my work.
I explained the basic concept of the program I was writing, and he became very excited; he worked in IT for another medical institution, was planning to go independent, and thought my idea was a winner.
Somewhere in the conversation, it became apparent to him that I was working on a PC network platform. He was dismayed. "PCs?"
He immediately lost interest. "PCs have no future other than games and porno. Nothing but mainframes and midi's can do that job."
Right.
I don't know about Magueijo's science, but I know that swimming upstream against conventional wisdom in any human endeavor is rough going. And I know that people tend to edit their own opinion history: what they once dismmissed becomes something they always saw coming. I would like to read his book, at least, before tossing him into the beyond-the-pale pool with creationists.

God gave us the earth. We have dominion over the plants, the animals, the trees. God said, ”Earth is yours. Take it. Rape it. It’s yours.’
--Ann Coulter, Fox-TV: Hannity & Colmes, 20 Jun 01
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PaulK
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Posts: 17827
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 11 of 58 (347347)
09-07-2006 6:27 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by GDR
09-07-2006 6:13 PM


I don't think it even throws off our estimates of the age of the universe by much. As I understand it all the serious proposals for VSL concern the very early universe, long before the Sun and the Earth formed.

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subbie
Member (Idle past 1282 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


Message 12 of 58 (347348)
09-07-2006 6:37 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by GDR
09-07-2006 6:13 PM


Just being a bit of a devil's advocate here, but I don't quite see it the way you do. If he is right and the speed of light isn't a constant doesn't that throw off all of our calculations about the age of the earth? Maybe it is only 6000 years old.
In addition to the other replies, I'd point out that the most it would do, if it would do anything, would require re-estimation of the age of the universe, not the earth. I don't think that age of the earth estimates depend to any degree on c, but rather geological evidence and etc. that we observe here on earth.

Those who would sacrifice an essential liberty for a temporary security will lose both, and deserve neither. -- Benjamin Franklin

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GDR
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Posts: 6202
From: Sidney, BC, Canada
Joined: 05-22-2005
Member Rating: 2.1


Message 13 of 58 (347364)
09-07-2006 7:49 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by jar
09-07-2006 6:22 PM


jar writes:
Not at all. If the speed of light is faster then the universe is even bigger than we now think.
OK I agree with that. I have a question though. If the speed of light were to double tomorrow would that affect time as we perceive it?
If we could travel at the speed of light then time ceases to pass from our perspective. If the speed of light were to double then wouldn't it mean that we would have to go twice as fast before time would stop. Doesn't that mean then that time would also pass twice as quickly if the speed of light were doubled?

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kuresu
Member (Idle past 2540 days)
Posts: 2544
From: boulder, colorado
Joined: 03-24-2006


Message 14 of 58 (347372)
09-07-2006 8:07 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by GDR
09-07-2006 7:49 PM


I may be in over my head (most likely am), the answer is no.
Time will not be changed. It will still take one year to go around the sun. It will still take four+ years for me to graduate college.
All that will happen is that the light from the sun will take 4 minutes to get here. And something that's currently 13 billion years old will still be. It just that in thirteen billion years the light will get here twice as fast.
my question is--how do you detect the speed of light coming from other stars?

All a man's knowledge comes from his experiences

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subbie
Member (Idle past 1282 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


Message 15 of 58 (347374)
09-07-2006 8:16 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by kuresu
09-07-2006 8:07 PM


my question is--how do you detect the speed of light coming from other stars?
My understanding is that we don't. The speed of light through a vacuum is believed to be constant regardless of the source or the distance.

Those who would sacrifice an essential liberty for a temporary security will lose both, and deserve neither. -- Benjamin Franklin

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