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Author Topic:   Supernatural? I thought it was anyway...
iano
Member (Idle past 1941 days)
Posts: 6165
From: Co. Wicklow, Ireland.
Joined: 07-27-2005


Message 1 of 56 (233619)
08-16-2005 7:31 AM


I believe in God. God of the Bible. Prior to becoming a believer I gave zero thought to anything that could remotely be described as the "supernatural" and would have treated any claims of there being a supernatural as poppycock.
Whilst in this mode, a fellow mechanical engineer who happens to be a business friend told me that he was planning to go see a medium. He thought it was all poppycock too, but for all that, had some desire to know what his dead father thought of his efforts to run the family business he inherited - approval from father being an important issue for most sons. We discussed the opportunity for fraud - he knew as well as I did, that a skilled practioner could take his age and circumstances and with the help of some disguised chat turn this into an apparent supernatural experience. The main elements of the tack taken to avoid fraud was:
- she didn't know him from a hole in the wall so had no prior information about him. He heard of the medium through a friend of a friend
- he would book under an assumed name.
- he would tell her during booking that he wouldn't say a word during the session other than introduce himself by his assumed name.
- If he had questions he would remember them and delay posing them to the end of the session.
- he would remain as expressionless as possible throughout and even go so far as to introduce false affirmation/denial throughout to throw the medium off the scent.
The results during the session - prior to him asking questions:
- she said that his fathers 'nickname' as a child started with the letter 'T'. My friend only found this out subsequently when he visited his fathers boyhood homeland and met some of his fathers childhood friends. His fathers surname did start with the letter T but the nickname wasn't a play on his surname.
- that his mother suffered from a specific physical ailment which he only found out when he subsequently questioned her - his mother keeping it to herself so as not to worry the family. His mother had no been to this medium nor any other.
- the medium at one point said she could 'see' his father standing just so (she assumed a pose), with a newspaper tucked under his arm in an unusual fashion - a characteristic of his father he remembered from childhood. This 'revelation', he said, almost floored him so pointed and accurate was it of how he remembered his father.
I was writing these points down during our discussion. In amongst the general notes I was taking, I later counted 15 items which had the quality and specifics of the above examples - although most would be less remarkable than the above. I wasn't there, granted, but have, in the past, placed my life in the hands of my friend and would trust what he said absolutely. We designed it so that any 'possible' fraud could be excluded. That was the day I 'knew' there was a supernatural dimension - even if it arrived second hand as it where. What the source of it was I did not know - but 'know' it I did.
Question. If not the supernatural, how is this explained in the natural.
This message has been edited by iano, 16-Aug-2005 07:19 PM

Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by Phat, posted 08-18-2005 5:14 AM iano has replied
 Message 4 by Dr Jack, posted 08-18-2005 6:24 AM iano has replied
 Message 5 by crashfrog, posted 08-18-2005 7:25 AM iano has not replied
 Message 10 by PaulK, posted 08-18-2005 9:15 AM iano has replied
 Message 14 by ramoss, posted 08-18-2005 10:19 AM iano has not replied
 Message 15 by Zhimbo, posted 08-18-2005 11:09 AM iano has replied
 Message 34 by Zhimbo, posted 08-18-2005 2:26 PM iano has not replied
 Message 41 by riVeRraT, posted 08-18-2005 7:11 PM iano has not replied
 Message 54 by LauraG, posted 08-25-2005 7:05 PM iano has not replied

  
AdminPhat
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Message 2 of 56 (234370)
08-18-2005 5:07 AM


Thread moved here from the Proposed New Topics forum.

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18262
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 3 of 56 (234372)
08-18-2005 5:14 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by iano
08-16-2005 7:31 AM


Here is your chance to discuss the supernatural. How well do you know this friend? In other words, can you vouch for his integrity and sanity? I personally believe that some mediums DO have access to a supernatural realm, but I am unimpressed with this since the source of their wisdom is, in my opinion, not God.
As far as proof, there is no real way to validate or prove supernatural experiences...apart from experiencing one and "proving" it to yourself. I, for one am a believer in the supernatural and i also believe that there are basically two spirit realms.
1) The Holy Spirit...God Himself acting directly or through His creation.
2) The other ones...all demonic...all wannabe gods...all dependent on a living being to manifest themselves through.
My point of view is, admittedly, highly illogical. My beliefs arise from personal experiences and can be proven to no one.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by iano, posted 08-16-2005 7:31 AM iano has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by iano, posted 08-18-2005 8:53 AM Phat has not replied

  
Dr Jack
Member
Posts: 3514
From: Immigrant in the land of Deutsch
Joined: 07-14-2003
Member Rating: 8.7


Message 4 of 56 (234376)
08-18-2005 6:24 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by iano
08-16-2005 7:31 AM


We can't judge from a person's report of a session with a medium, due to a phenomena called 'success bias' - we don't know how many things she got wrong among the actual 'hits'.
As to your specific examples
1. Begins with 'T'; you're going to have a fair hit rate with this. Most people acquire multiple nicknames in their lifetime, many of them begin with 'The'.
2. Specific physical ailment. Without knowing the specific ailment we can't really answer this one. However the medium would be able to take a fair guess at the mothers age from your friends and some ailments are extremely common among the older age groups.
3. Man, presumably from the, what, 50s? carries newspaper shocker.
So we have three 'hits', none of which are particularly unlikely among an unknown number of misses with an unknown amount of feedback from the client (facial expression is probably sufficent in most cases, and unless your friend is a star poker player he'll be showing plenty).
No, sorry, this "experiment" is unconvincing.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by iano, posted 08-16-2005 7:31 AM iano has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by iano, posted 08-18-2005 9:10 AM Dr Jack has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1467 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 5 of 56 (234384)
08-18-2005 7:25 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by iano
08-16-2005 7:31 AM


The results during the session - prior to him asking questions:
What else did she say? You've reported her "hits"; what about her misses?
People wonder how "mediums" like John Edwards can know so much and have such amazing "successes"; it's because he stands there guessing 20 differnet wrong things, until he gets lucky, and then when he does you're so amazed and he moves on so quickly that you forget about all those times he was dead wrong.
And, hey. If this medium is for real, why hasn't she claimed the James Randi prize?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by iano, posted 08-16-2005 7:31 AM iano has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9076
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 6 of 56 (234389)
08-18-2005 8:20 AM


Bunk
Mediums and psychics have been debunked for generations. They are in no way any proof of the supernatural. ALL when tested with scientific controls will fail. Penn and Teller were easily able to expose 5 mediums on their show and they are not even using scientific controls. Here is a good explanation of one reason they seem so successful. Subject Validation
Most people that go to readings want it to work. They grasp at any straw to convince themselves it is successful.
I am sure I can find even more reasons and examples with a quick Google search.

  
iano
Member (Idle past 1941 days)
Posts: 6165
From: Co. Wicklow, Ireland.
Joined: 07-27-2005


Message 7 of 56 (234404)
08-18-2005 8:53 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by Phat
08-18-2005 5:14 AM


Hi Phatboy.
It wasn't really a debating point this. I just said what happened and could fill in some detail if that's missing. I could be lying about it all. But presuming for a moment I'm not, then all I was asking was "what is the naturalistic explanation?"
I agree with your take on the supernatural being multi-fold and that a supernatural 'experience' is not necessarily from God. My friends sanity and integrity is such as for me to have trusted him with my life. Can say better than that. He could be lying but had no reason to that I could ascertain.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Phat, posted 08-18-2005 5:14 AM Phat has not replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6408
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 8 of 56 (234408)
08-18-2005 9:08 AM


Are supernaturalists painting themselves into a corner?
I cannot comment on iano's report of a report of a seance. We would really need a recording or a transcript of the actual session.
Phatboy wrote:
Here is your chance to discuss the supernatural.
Over the last few centuries, more and more of what was considered supernatural has been investigated, and found to be natural. It seems that the natural is growing, and the supernatural is shrinking. Yet some people are placing great emphasis on the supernatural. Are they painting themselves into a corner?

  
iano
Member (Idle past 1941 days)
Posts: 6165
From: Co. Wicklow, Ireland.
Joined: 07-27-2005


Message 9 of 56 (234409)
08-18-2005 9:10 AM
Reply to: Message 4 by Dr Jack
08-18-2005 6:24 AM


Good point which I forgot to mention. The miss rate. It was fairly low although there were things in my notes which were vague and were wrong. Around 15% vague/non-specific/uncheckable and about 15% definitely wrong.
The letter T. Far more nicknames won't begin with the letter T than do but the key point here was that his father was Swiss and 'The' will either be the German or French, neither 'The' in those languages begin with T.
Specific physical ailment. It was a hip problem and one that didn't lead to mobility problems - more to pain - which is probably why my friend didn't know of it. Yes her age could be inferred from my friends age (he was 42 at the time). Firstly the medium got that she was alive (more likely but not a cert) secondly that she had for that age (mid-sixties) a relatively uncommon complaint (ie: it wasn't a bit of a twinge his mother had -which may be expected) but a genuine problem. There are a lot more common complaints available to plump for if one were playing a numbers game
It wasn't the carrying of the newspaper per se - it was the way (tucked high under the armpit - and assuming an almost soldier-at-attention pose, hand cupping the newspaper as if holding the butt of a rifle. Very specific.
I understand about facial expression and the likelyhood that a pro will detect what most wouldn't. Thus the decision to throw the scent with nods and shakes of the head in conflict with the true feelings. It's hard to be truly affirming if your shaking your head at the same time. Note too that in order to get a positive feeling from my friend, the medium first has to come up with something like the newspaper pose. That's a bit of a wild shot in the dark as far as I can make out.
Any view based on this extra detail?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by Dr Jack, posted 08-18-2005 6:24 AM Dr Jack has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 11 by PaulK, posted 08-18-2005 9:22 AM iano has not replied
 Message 12 by Theodoric, posted 08-18-2005 9:25 AM iano has not replied
 Message 13 by Dr Jack, posted 08-18-2005 9:49 AM iano has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 10 of 56 (234410)
08-18-2005 9:15 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by iano
08-16-2005 7:31 AM


From what I've read if you really wanted to test the medium you should have recorded the whole thing. Mediums typically do a lot of fishing and it tends to be forgotten in favour of the hits.
The "name starting with..." for instance is typical - and surprisingly unimpressive if there was anything really supernatural going on. Why for instance give the first letter - and no more - of an old nickname that isn't even known to the person consulting the medium ? It isn't important or relevant to the actual queires.
And it's even less impressive if there was any fishing going on - for instance a medium could go witt a "name starting with T..." and then go on to suggest that it is a nickname if there is no reaction. Since there is almost never a way to be sure that a person DIDN'T have a nickname you don't know about, and many people have more than one nickname over the course of their lives there's almost no chance of a clear "miss" and a fairly good chance of a "hit". If the medium gets lucky they get a "hit" on the initial guess - but if they fail they still don't "lose" and may even be lucky enough to get the "amazing" result you report.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by iano, posted 08-16-2005 7:31 AM iano has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 25 by iano, posted 08-18-2005 1:30 PM PaulK has replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17822
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 11 of 56 (234416)
08-18-2005 9:22 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by iano
08-18-2005 9:10 AM


quote:
The letter T. Far more nicknames won't begin with the letter T than do but the key point here was that his father was Swiss and 'The' will either be the German or French, neither 'The' in those languages begin with T.
Only if the medium knew that or had good reason to believe it. Did the medium even specify that the nickname was an old one, going back to the man's childhood ?
quote:
Specific physical ailment. It was a hip problem and one that didn't lead to mobility problems - more to pain - which is probably why my friend didn't know of it
Sounds like a guess to me. Lots of elderly people have hip problems.
quote:
It wasn't the carrying of the newspaper per se - it was the way (tucked high under the armpit - and assuming an almost soldier-at-attention pose, hand cupping the newspaper as if holding the butt of a rifle. Very specific.
I think it's more old-fashioned than specific. It was common enough that I've seen it depicted - so this looks like another guess.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by iano, posted 08-18-2005 9:10 AM iano has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9076
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 12 of 56 (234419)
08-18-2005 9:25 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by iano
08-18-2005 9:10 AM


still not supernatural
These charlatans have been debunked and exposed for years. Harry Houdini started debunking them maany, many years ago. I stand by my earlier post. People want the reading to be successful and they will reach for anything that is remotely positive to them.
Take a look ath this site. http://www.geocities.com/Omegaman_UK/frauds.html
This guy does everything the psychics and mediums do, but he rcognizes it for what it is bunk and fraud.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by iano, posted 08-18-2005 9:10 AM iano has not replied

  
Dr Jack
Member
Posts: 3514
From: Immigrant in the land of Deutsch
Joined: 07-14-2003
Member Rating: 8.7


Message 13 of 56 (234428)
08-18-2005 9:49 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by iano
08-18-2005 9:10 AM


Your answers, Iano, are demonstrating the problems with discussing a report of a report. Without knowing exactly what was said we can't properly assess.
But, no, your answers don't really make any difference to my thoughts.
I'm not surprised you were convinced, because cold-reading is convincing that's why people believe in it. I've seen demonstrations done where after a quick bit of training someone has been able to reproduce results almost as good as yours on unsuspecting subjects without any supernatural element involved.
Going a bit more into specifics:
Nickname with T; this is typical medium fare. No, it's not that likely that he had such a nickname. It doesn't have to be. It only has to be likely enough that when you throw out five or so such statements, one will stick on most people.
A hip problem; would you have considered it less of a hit had she only had a twinge? I don't think so and, IIRC, the vast majority of over 60s women have hip problems to some degree or another.
Carrying the newspaper; what you describe isn't unusual at all. It's the way folks used to carry newspapers. Probably as a hangover from military training during the two world wars. Knowing the age of your friend allows the medium to guess at the parents age and thus guess details like these.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by iano, posted 08-18-2005 9:10 AM iano has not replied

  
ramoss
Member (Idle past 612 days)
Posts: 3228
Joined: 08-11-2004


Message 14 of 56 (234439)
08-18-2005 10:19 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by iano
08-16-2005 7:31 AM


There are tricks that people use to draw out information from the people they are 'reading'. Much of the information that the 'medium' gets is by throwing out some tidbit, and reading the body language of the person getting the reading. You can go from something very general to something very specific.. frightenly so.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by iano, posted 08-16-2005 7:31 AM iano has not replied

  
Zhimbo
Member (Idle past 6012 days)
Posts: 571
From: New Hampshire, USA
Joined: 07-28-2001


Message 15 of 56 (234446)
08-18-2005 11:09 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by iano
08-16-2005 7:31 AM


Watch the South Park about John Edwards. All will be explained. No, really, it actually has an excellent explanation of how these charlatans work.
When actually recorded and scored carefully, the typical charlatan hit rate is astonishingly low, yet people REMEMBER it as very high, and in fact fail to remember most misses altogether. And if you don't count *questions* as predictions, the hit rate is close to nil. People often "remember" that the charlatan said X, when they actually said "Is X true?" and the victim agrees to it.
It's actually quite fascinating stuff, and says a lot about how our memory works.
Remember, we're now dealing with something you remember from from what another person remembers, so we're dealing with multiple layers memory now. I'd bet every penny in my bank account that an actual recording of the seance would reveal a few lucky guesses, tons of fishing around with vague phrases like "I sense a female relative, maybe a sister or cousin, name starts with an 'S' or 'Sh' sound...", and lots of questions but few assertions.
It's been shown over and over and over again...I don't know why this one would turn out any different. Even though Edwards' show is heavily edited it still reveals all the typical cold reading techniques. If this person is willing to video their performance for review later, that would be helpful.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by iano, posted 08-16-2005 7:31 AM iano has replied

Replies to this message:
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