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Author Topic:   Department Of Homeland Security Inaction At the Top
Peal
Member (Idle past 4689 days)
Posts: 64
Joined: 03-11-2004


Message 241 of 297 (243869)
09-15-2005 2:20 PM
Reply to: Message 240 by Peal
09-15-2005 2:19 PM


Re: Hounds are on the hunt.
In the above post the advisory was on the 27.
Later
This message has been edited by Peal, 09-15-2005 02:27 PM

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Peal
Member (Idle past 4689 days)
Posts: 64
Joined: 03-11-2004


Message 242 of 297 (243870)
09-15-2005 2:23 PM


Gene
We will talk later. I have a 3 hour drive ahead of me.
But like you said Blanco already accepted blame. She is as much of a man as Bush. Later.

Replies to this message:
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gene90
Member (Idle past 3813 days)
Posts: 1610
Joined: 12-25-2000


Message 243 of 297 (243872)
09-15-2005 2:32 PM
Reply to: Message 240 by Peal
09-15-2005 2:19 PM


Re: Hounds are on the hunt.
quote:
This says Kitrina could become a Category 4
She had to make a decision based on someones prediction.
First of all, what point are you trying to make? If you want to say that Blanco knew that Katrina would make landfall as a category 4, and that she knew it would strike New Orleans, why did she only ask for nine million dollar's worth of aid--not only for New Orleans, but for the entire State of Louisiana?
This unusual turn of events has actually placed me in the position of defending Blanco by pointing out that there is no way she could have known with certainty what the storm would do 48 hours in advance.
Yes, it was predicted to reach Category 4 but that in itself isn't unusual. Lili was a Cat 4 hours before landfall in Louisiana. At landfall it was a Category 1. That was only a couple of years ago and would be well in the minds of the Louisianans. Even more recent was last years fiasco with Ivan, that made a last-minute turn towards Pensacola. It also was a Category 4 prior to landfall. And it did a lot of damage, but not like what we see from Katrina.
Essentially you need to know three things to make a competent decision about how much Federal help you need:
(a) You need to know how strong the hurricane will be.
(b) You need to know where that hurricane will make lanfall.
(c) You need to know the area exposed to certain wind velocities.
30 miles can make all the difference in the world.
Now, to show you the extent of the area under hurricane advisories, here is the 4 PM August 27th advisory:
quote:
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.
Here are the 11 PM Aug 27 strike probabilities for Hurricane Katrina:
Hurricane KATRINA?
There is a 17% chance it would hit New Orleans.
This message has been edited by gene90, 09-15-2005 02:34 PM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 240 by Peal, posted 09-15-2005 2:19 PM Peal has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 245 by RAZD, posted 09-15-2005 8:14 PM gene90 has replied
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gene90
Member (Idle past 3813 days)
Posts: 1610
Joined: 12-25-2000


Message 244 of 297 (243874)
09-15-2005 2:39 PM
Reply to: Message 242 by Peal
09-15-2005 2:23 PM


I overlooked this:
quote:
We will talk later. I have a 3 hour drive ahead of me.
Okay, have a safe trip.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 242 by Peal, posted 09-15-2005 2:23 PM Peal has not replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1395 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 245 of 297 (243931)
09-15-2005 8:14 PM
Reply to: Message 243 by gene90
09-15-2005 2:32 PM


Some points ...
gene90, welcome to the thread.
Unfortunately I was away for a good portion of this looking into problem created by the hurricane for work our company had lined up ... in New Orleans. This meant looking for other places to do the work and other supplies of equipment. It's been pretty hectic.
The original intent of this thread was not to list all the people at fault but to point out the particular failure of the Department of Homeland Security.
I've read your posts and you have some interesting points, but I want to make a couple things clear that I think are being obscured here:
(1) The department of Homeland Security was created under this administration specifically to bring together different agencies and levels of government (local to federal) to handle disasters, and that previous failures of FEMA are irrelevant to the failure of DHS to improve the system: I think we can agree that FEMA is not one scintilla better in this system than it was before.
(2) The mission of DHS is to lead from the national level - the mission statement reads "We will lead the unified national effort to secure America ... and protect against and respond to threats and hazards to the nation." I think we can agree that pretty words do not mean squat when there is no substance behind them.
(3) There was an exercise run in 2000 that simulated this event rather well, and there was no mention in any of the articles I've seen on it about any problems uncovered by the simulation. I have to wonder who ran that simulation, where is it now, what did they miss and why was the plan embodied in the simulation not followed. If that plan called for the city to assemble the people in the superdome and then have the Feds come in to provide relief, then I don't think we can fault the Mayor if he was following that plan and no other had replaced it. That being said, I'm sure that we can both agree that there should have been a better plan, the only question would be where it should come from.
(4) Whether the city had a plan or not, given the mission of the DHS, and the known hazard of this event, there should have been at least one person in DHS assigned to (a) ensure that the city had a plan, (b) ensure that the people in the city knew what the plan was, (c) ensure that the city plan was properly coordinated with a state and federal plan and resources, (d) that the {plan\coordination} was feasible, practical and implementable, (e) that key milestones were built into the plan so that each step is keyed to an {event\level\crisis} to ensure quick {activation\implementation\response}, (f) that the plan was multi-layered so that failure of one part would not jeopardize the remainder. I think we can agree that there is no evidence of any such work by anyone at DHS for this, the #3 worst on their list possible disasters.
(5) The people appointed to run DHS and FEMA were evidently ill equipped to know what to do in this situation. I hope we can agree that Brown was a total failure, and that Chertoff is not any better, both being political appointments where party connection was more important than actual ability. I think we could agree that (in general) a president - if one were concerned about getting the job done properly - would be most concerned about having the best possible people to fill the various positions rather than those with connections to the deepest pockets.
I think the biggest disagreement we will find is the level of government most responsible for ensuring that there is adequate planning to protect the people -- you have been arguing pretty much that it is the local level first and foremost and then up to the state before reaching the federal level (correct me if I'm wrong).
I think what we have here is very strong evidence that the {common conservative small government, local first model} fails to provide the necessary level of protection that (all) Americans should be able to expect.
To begin with, cities are not {prepared\equipped} to deal with this level of crisis. They don't have enough {fire\medical\first responders}, enough {security\traffic control\police} to provide the level needed, particularly when these people are also ones that need the help.
The city could have had a wonderful evacuation plan that commandeered every single bus, truck, train, whatever to move people out of the city, but what happens when you reach the city boundary? The state boundary? How can the city {know\plan\ensure} that there are adequate {resources\places\assistance} where the people end up?
The states resources are not that much better: the governor can call in the national guard and send in state troopers, but that's about it.
What you need for any evacuation from any place is:
- a secure place of refuge
- food, shelter, clothes,
- medical\emotional assistance
- communication\identification\recognition
- {abe} a way to get people there in a reasonable manner {/abe}
And you can't have a city or a state plan that does not have these elements. As far as these elements go it is clear that the superdome did not fit any of them: at best it was a place to survive the storm.
The only level that makes sense to ensure that this level of response is provided for relatively rare and distant events is the federal government. This is why FEMA in the first place, but even there the focus has (historically) been too much on {aftermath handling}.
Essentially you need to know three things to make a competent decision about how much Federal help you need:
(a) You need to know how strong the hurricane will be.
(b) You need to know where that hurricane will make lanfall.
(c) You need to know the area exposed to certain wind velocities.
30 miles can make all the difference in the world.
This is a typical reactive response: we can't do anything until it happens. The fallacy here is that we know that hurricanes happen a lot, some are worse than others, and that when the bad ones come any wait is too late.
A proactive response is that we will need to have evacuation centers all along the hurricane coast designed to withstand the storms, be easy to get to and that can be staffed ahead of time with adequate well trained support personnel and equipment. An evacuation plan with no-where to go is useless (and why American "evacuations" are usually stop and go highways, while Cuban or Chinese ones end up working?).
Some could be in the city: combine the superdome with a hospital facility and foodstores etcetera (such as were provided in those atomic bomb shelters we grew up with in the 60's), and ensure elevated road access for emergency use\need. Look at tornado shelters in tornado alley, and then think {supersizeit}.
Some could be outside the city: there are a lot of closed military bases and a lot more being closed -- in many cases they have perfectly adequate landing strips for big planes -- what better use than a moth-balled-ready-to-go evacuation center? These would also provide extra bases for national guard stations and that could provide the personnel.
Here are the 11 PM Aug 27 strike probabilities for Hurricane Katrina:
There is a 17% chance it would hit New Orleans.
This is when public announcements remind people of the plan, the places to go, how to get there, what they should take and when they should go. Leave the outbound lanes to the cars and trucks, and switch the inbound lanes over to exclusive bus\ambulance use to shuttle people that cannot drive.
It's not rocket science to {assemble\develop\coordinate} an integrated plan, but it's not something a city can do alone. This is what DHS should have done, and what they absolutely failed to even consider doing.
Enjoy.
This message has been edited by RAZD, 09*15*2005 08:22 PM

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 243 by gene90, posted 09-15-2005 2:32 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 246 by Chiroptera, posted 09-15-2005 8:18 PM RAZD has replied
 Message 247 by jar, posted 09-15-2005 8:19 PM RAZD has replied
 Message 252 by gene90, posted 09-15-2005 11:15 PM RAZD has replied

Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 246 of 297 (243932)
09-15-2005 8:18 PM
Reply to: Message 245 by RAZD
09-15-2005 8:14 PM


Oops
quote:
What you need for any evacuation from any place is:
- a secure place of refuge
- food, shelter, clothes,
- medical\emotional assistance
- communication\identification\recognition
You forgot one: a way of getting the people to the secure place of refuge.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 245 by RAZD, posted 09-15-2005 8:14 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 248 by RAZD, posted 09-15-2005 8:20 PM Chiroptera has not replied

jar
Member (Idle past 384 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 247 of 297 (243933)
09-15-2005 8:19 PM
Reply to: Message 245 by RAZD
09-15-2005 8:14 PM


Re: Point 3.
(3) There was an exercise run in 2000 that simulated this event rather well, and there was no mention in any of the articles I've seen on it about any problems uncovered by the simulation.
There wer two exercises, Hurricane Zebra in 2000 and Hurricane Pam just last year IIRC.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 245 by RAZD, posted 09-15-2005 8:14 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1395 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 248 of 297 (243934)
09-15-2005 8:20 PM
Reply to: Message 246 by Chiroptera
09-15-2005 8:18 PM


Re: Oops
in reasonable comfort. thanks.

This message is a reply to:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1395 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 249 of 297 (243935)
09-15-2005 8:20 PM
Reply to: Message 247 by jar
09-15-2005 8:19 PM


Re: Point 3.
even more telling then.

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 Message 247 by jar, posted 09-15-2005 8:19 PM jar has not replied

Peal
Member (Idle past 4689 days)
Posts: 64
Joined: 03-11-2004


Message 250 of 297 (243965)
09-15-2005 10:07 PM
Reply to: Message 243 by gene90
09-15-2005 2:32 PM


Re: Hounds are on the hunt.
Retract post
This message has been edited by Peal, 09-15-2005 10:28 PM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 243 by gene90, posted 09-15-2005 2:32 PM gene90 has not replied

arachnophilia
Member (Idle past 1334 days)
Posts: 9069
From: god's waiting room
Joined: 05-21-2004


Message 251 of 297 (243972)
09-15-2005 10:20 PM
Reply to: Message 210 by gene90
09-14-2005 11:11 PM


not a double standard.
quote:
maybe they could have done it before then. but that's just speculation on your part. evacuating a city is not an easy task
No, when Blanco and Nagin are thinking about it's not an easy task.
When FEMA does it suddenly they are grossly incompetent for taking longer than a day.
Be consistent.
well the problem is that the structure is not consistent. when the mayor is in trouble, he turns it over to the governor. when the gov. is in trouble, she calls the feds.
it is not the sole job of nagin to prepare for disaster, nor is it his duty to only work on ways to prevent disaster and clean them up afterwards. neither is it blanco's job.
but it IS fema's job. what i'm asking for is that they do their job, and do it effectively. it is understandable that a mayor and a governor didn't succeed -- but fema is the last resort they turn to.
it is not a double standard to expect fema and the dhs to do their jobs. but it is unreasonable to expect a mayor and a governor to do fema's job. see the difference?
My assertion isn't "ridiculous": load people on buses and send them out of the city.
yes, and it probably should have been done. in retrospect. fema should probably organize that type of thing, actually.

אָרַח

This message is a reply to:
 Message 210 by gene90, posted 09-14-2005 11:11 PM gene90 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 253 by gene90, posted 09-15-2005 11:31 PM arachnophilia has replied

gene90
Member (Idle past 3813 days)
Posts: 1610
Joined: 12-25-2000


Message 252 of 297 (243990)
09-15-2005 11:15 PM
Reply to: Message 245 by RAZD
09-15-2005 8:14 PM


Re: Some points ...
quote:
(1) The department of Homeland Security was created under this administration specifically to bring together different agencies and levels of government (local to federal) to handle disasters, and that previous failures of FEMA are irrelevant to the failure of DHS to improve the system: I think we can agree that FEMA is not one scintilla better in this system than it was before.
Right. That's one of the reasons there should be a bipartison investigation: Bush has too much of a stake in this since he pushed for the unification.
I think that covers (2) also.
(3) There is nothing here I disagree with, really we need more information.
(4) What legal power does the DHS have to force New Orleans to make a plan, and then stand by it in an emergency?
(5a) There is nothing I can possibly say to justify these two appointments.
(5b) Yes, primary authority rests with the lowest level of government.
quote:
In accordance with FEMA’s primary authorizing legislation, the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, FEMA is first and foremost a coordinating agency. The Agency therefore relies on strong partnerships to successfully carry out its mission. FEMA works with a variety of partners, including Federal agencies, States, Territories, Tribal Nations, local governments, first responders, voluntary organizations, business, industry, and individuals. While the Agency’s mission is squarely focused on protecting and preparing the Nation as a whole, primary responsibility for disaster response rests with State and local authorities.
Source: http://www.fema.gov/library/strategicplanfy03.shtm
quote:
All incidents are handled at the lowest possible organizational and jurisdictional level. Police, fire, public health and medical, emergency management, and other personnel are responsible for incident management at the local level. For those events that rise to the level of an Incident of National Significance, the Department of Homeland Security provides operational and/or resource coordination for Federal support to on-scene incident command structures.
quote:
Emphasis on Local Response
All incidents are handled at the lowest possible organizational and jurisdictional level. Police, fire, public health and medical, emergency management, and other personnel are responsible for incident management at the local level. For those events that rise to the level of an Incident of National Significance, the Department of Homeland Security provides operational and/or resource coordination for Federal support to on-scene incident command structures.
http://www.dhs.gov/.../interapp/editorial/editorial_0569.xml
How many times in the Stafford Act do the words "coordinate" and "assist" appear in the duties of FEMA? How often does the phrase "assume authority" appear?
Again, I'm not really interested in rehashing this over and over again. I'm simply going to say that there should probably be legislative action if we are to make serious changes and permanent changes to how FEMA and DHS operate. Not that the current occupants of the Executive necessarily would be enthusiastic about such changes, but I think it's more fundamental an issue than merely the actions of a single president.
quote:
The city could have had a wonderful evacuation plan that commandeered every single bus, truck, train, whatever to move people out of the city, but what happens when you reach the city boundary? The state boundary? How can the city {know\plan\ensure} that there are adequate {resources\places\assistance} where the people end up?
Somebody might have realized, hey, my city is below sea level. Maybe we should enter into a strategic partnership with another city for handling displaced persons? Houston was glad to help after the storm.
Of course, in their defense N.O. is a poor city and such an agreement would likely involve money changing hands, and other mayors are less likely to agree to a binding pact when New Orleans is dry than after watching hours continuous rescues and shelter crises on all the news channels. Similar principle to "easier to get forgiveness than permission".
(5c) I like the idea of requiring FEMA to be more proactive in the rare catastrophes. I also like the idea of using Federal resources like bases in an integrated, multistate evacuation plan. I believe it was Jesse Jackson that suggested within a few days of the storm and I still think it's viable. There are other good suggestions as well.
If the United States wants to continue to persist for another 200 years then people think need to think about major catastrophes (bigger than this one), continuity of gov't, etc. There are bigger problems out there than hurricanes, specifically nuclear war, the probability of which I would say gets closer to one as the decades pass by.
(5d) We're not going to settle State's rights issues or the ideal size of the Federal government, so I will simply agree to disagree.
This message has been edited by gene90, 09-15-2005 11:27 PM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 245 by RAZD, posted 09-15-2005 8:14 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
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gene90
Member (Idle past 3813 days)
Posts: 1610
Joined: 12-25-2000


Message 253 of 297 (243997)
09-15-2005 11:31 PM
Reply to: Message 251 by arachnophilia
09-15-2005 10:20 PM


Re: not a double standard.
quote:
it is not the sole job of nagin to prepare for disaster, nor is it his duty to only work on ways to prevent disaster and clean them up afterwards. neither is it blanco's job.
No, not the sole job in preparation, FEMA can help operational planning, like an evacuation that you just mentioned they probably should have preplanned.
But when a hurricane comes barreling at New Orleans, Nagin is the first line of defense.
quote:
but it IS fema's job. what i'm asking for is that they do their job, and do it effectively.
And we need to (a) find out why the response was ineffective (b) fire the incompetents and (c) quit with the nepotistic hiring practices.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 251 by arachnophilia, posted 09-15-2005 10:20 PM arachnophilia has replied

Replies to this message:
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arachnophilia
Member (Idle past 1334 days)
Posts: 9069
From: god's waiting room
Joined: 05-21-2004


Message 254 of 297 (244004)
09-15-2005 11:45 PM
Reply to: Message 253 by gene90
09-15-2005 11:31 PM


Re: not a double standard.
FEMA can help operational planning, like an evacuation that you just mentioned they probably should have preplanned.
:nods:
But when a hurricane comes barreling at New Orleans, Nagin is the first line of defense.
actually, when HIS boss writes to the president and says "we can't handle it here" nagin is certainly not the first line of defense. fema is. that's what that declaration of a state of disaster on the 27th was for.
And we need to (a) find out why the response was ineffective (b) fire the incompetents and (c) quit with the nepotistic hiring practices.
agreed all around.

אָרַח

This message is a reply to:
 Message 253 by gene90, posted 09-15-2005 11:31 PM gene90 has replied

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gene90
Member (Idle past 3813 days)
Posts: 1610
Joined: 12-25-2000


Message 255 of 297 (244127)
09-16-2005 11:06 AM
Reply to: Message 254 by arachnophilia
09-15-2005 11:45 PM


Re: not a double standard.
quote:
actually, when HIS boss writes to the president and says "we can't handle it here" nagin is certainly not the first line of defense. fema is. that's what that declaration of a state of disaster on the 27th was for.
In the sense that DHS and FEMA like for as much of the work as possible to be done at the lowest levels, he is the first line of defense. In the sense that the standard operating procedure is for the governor to ask for troops before they are sent in, Blanco is on the first line of defense. In the sense that they are first and foremost coordinating agencies, the local authorities are on the first line of defense.
On August 27, when the Governor asked for a declaration of emergency, Katrina was a Category 3 forecast to strengthen, though landfall was still 'up in the air':
quote:
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA.
And according to another forecast product by the NHC, the forecast probabilities issued at 4 PM Aug 27 there was a 21% chance of the eye of the hurricane making landfall within 65 nautical miles of New Orleans before 1 PM Tuesday.
That means that there's a 79% chance of the storm making landfall more than 65 nautical miles or remaining at sea through 1 PM Tuesday.
Hurricane KATRINA?
Some of you may feel that we should send in the cavalry at that point. However, this is not a very uncommon situation for Gulf hurricnes. For example, this is from the ten PM Wednesday, October 2, 2002, advisory for Hurricane Lili:
quote:
...LILI REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...DEADLY 10 TO 20 FOOT STORM SURGE APPROACHING THE COAST...
...FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION NOW...FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH ISLAND ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA.
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF
LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RESEARCH HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LILI IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/...2002/pub/al132002.public.047.html
That particular advisory was also accompanied by a strike probability table that listed New Orleans as 47%.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/...2002/prb/al132002.prblty.047.html
How about another recent hurricane?
10 PM Tuesday September 14 2004
quote:
...LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN
REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST
CATEGORY THREE.
Hurricane IVAN?
Now, the 10 PM 14 Sep 2004 strike probability for New Orleans: 26%
Hurricane IVAN?
If the Bush Administration had already dropped paratroopers into New Orleans twice before Hurricane Katrina, do you think that Democrats might have made fun of him a little for it by then? It would be nice if we had perfect forecasts but uncertainty is par for the course.
This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 11:09 AM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 254 by arachnophilia, posted 09-15-2005 11:45 PM arachnophilia has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 256 by gene90, posted 09-16-2005 4:52 PM gene90 has not replied

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