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Author Topic:   Senator Al Franken?
Wounded King
Member (Idle past 1625 days)
Posts: 4149
From: Edinburgh, Scotland
Joined: 04-09-2003


Message 31 of 119 (490494)
12-05-2008 5:53 AM
Reply to: Message 30 by Minnemooseus
12-04-2008 11:53 PM


Interesting NY times article
There was an interesting article in the NY Times yesterday ("Not Every Vote Counts") suggesting that the margin of error was so great in comparison to the differences in votes that there was no way there was going to be a statistically justifiable winner.

The margins on this current score seems bigger though, so is this still a valid point?

Is it still possible this is going to come down to something like the flip of a coin?

TTFN,

WK


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 32 by Granny Magda, posted 12-05-2008 10:31 AM Wounded King has responded

    
Granny Magda
Member
Posts: 2320
From: UK
Joined: 11-12-2007
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 32 of 119 (490516)
12-05-2008 10:31 AM
Reply to: Message 31 by Wounded King
12-05-2008 5:53 AM


Re: Interesting NY times article
Hi WK,

The lizard people have eaten a vote in Beltrami County. That’s not so strange in a recount like the one underway in Minnesota — voters do all kinds of inexplicable things like inscribing “lizard people” in the write-in slot, as one did, invalidating his ballot.

I think it's a disgrace that Minnesota is stomping upon the democratic rights of lizard people. :mad:

Seriously, I do think that the article has a valid point. When the vote margin is so close to the inevitable margin of human error, it is hard to see the result as being a mandate for anyone.

Would it be unreasonable to hold another vote in such circumstances? With such large numbers voting, close outcomes like this have got to be a rare event, so it seems practical enough to hold the occasional second ballot.

Mutate and Survive


"The Bible is like a person, and if you torture it long enough, you can get it to say almost anything you'd like it to say." -- Rev. Dr. Francis H. Wade
This message is a reply to:
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Wounded King
Member (Idle past 1625 days)
Posts: 4149
From: Edinburgh, Scotland
Joined: 04-09-2003


Message 33 of 119 (490518)
12-05-2008 10:45 AM
Reply to: Message 32 by Granny Magda
12-05-2008 10:31 AM


Re: Interesting NY times article
I think it's a disgrace that Minnesota is stomping upon the democratic rights of lizard people.

I'd say its a wash since both major parties are run by minions of the lizard people anyway.

TTFN,

WK


This message is a reply to:
 Message 32 by Granny Magda, posted 12-05-2008 10:31 AM Granny Magda has not yet responded

    
Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3537
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 5.6


Message 34 of 119 (491041)
12-11-2008 3:11 AM
Reply to: Message 30 by Minnemooseus
12-04-2008 11:53 PM


The current score - Norm holds a tiny lead
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

quote:
Precincts Recounted: 99.98% (4129 of 4130) 	 Last update was: 12/8/2008 8:00:01 PM

Statewide Recount Results for US Senate
Totals
Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Norm Coleman 1210995
Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Al Franken 1210285

Recounted Data Totals Percent
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Coleman (as recounted) 1208344 41.41
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Franken (as recounted) 1207657 41.38
RECOUNT Number of All Other Ballots (as recounted) 495475 16.98
RECOUNT COLEMAN and Other Ballots Challenged By FRANKEN 3280 0.11
RECOUNT FRANKEN and Other Ballots Challenged By COLEMAN 3375 0.12

Percentage of Ballots Recounted = 99.93%


These were the pre-recount results (from message 24):

quote:
Independence DEAN BARKLEY                                     437404    15.16
Republican NORM COLEMAN 1211590 41.99
Democratic-Farmer-Labor AL FRANKEN 1211375 41.98

Moose

Edited by Admin, : Reduce message width.


This message is a reply to:
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Minnemooseus
Member
Posts: 3537
From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior)
Joined: 11-11-2001
Member Rating: 5.6


Message 35 of 119 (491660)
12-19-2008 2:23 AM
Reply to: Message 34 by Minnemooseus
12-11-2008 3:11 AM


Even tighter - Current Coleman lead: 188 votes
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

quote:
Precincts Recounted: 100.00% (4130 of 4130) Last update was: 12/12/2008 5:01:18 PM

Statewide Recount Results for US Senate
Totals
Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Norm Coleman 1211590
Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Al Franken 1211375

Recounted Data Totals Percent
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Coleman (as recounted) 1208935 41.40
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Franken (as recounted) 1208747 41.39
RECOUNT Number of All Other Ballots (as recounted) 495920 16.98
RECOUNT COLEMAN and Other Ballots Challenged By FRANKEN 3278 0.11
RECOUNT FRANKEN and Other Ballots Challenged By COLEMAN 3377 0.12

Percentage of Ballots Recounted = 100.00%


So, pending dealing with the ballot challenges, Norm leads Al by 188 votes.

Again, the original election night totals (also listed above):

quote:

Independence DEAN BARKLEY 437404 15.16
Republican NORM COLEMAN 1211590 41.99
Democratic-Farmer-Labor AL FRANKEN 1211375 41.98

A 215 vote gap.

The two candidates have withdrawn quite a few (many hundreds) of those challenges, but they still are in the tally above.

Incidentally, the "lizard people" ballot was for Franken, and was thrown out. There is a statute rule that a voter can't mark his/her ballot in a way that would make it distintive.

Another ballot for Franken (or was there more than one?) had a number of write in votes for FSM and/or the Flying Spaghetti Monster. That/those ballot(s) were accepted as being valid. Apparently the FSM is a valid write in, but "lizard people" is not. Perhaps "lizard person", being singular, would have been valid.

Moose

Edited by Admin, : Reduce message width.


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Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6149
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 36 of 119 (491663)
12-19-2008 4:40 AM
Reply to: Message 35 by Minnemooseus
12-19-2008 2:23 AM


Re: Even tighter - Current Coleman lead: 188 votes
http://senaterecount.startribune.com/ballots/


About this dataResolved challengesRemainingCurrent vote totals
 ColemanFrankenOther/no one ColemanFrankenMargin
Current recount totals2534361985,8611,209,1881,209,183Coleman by 5
Challenged by Coleman22370852,761   
Challenged by Franken231661132,614   
Ballot Challenge projection2,9813,25848801,211,9161,212,005Franken by 89

Edited by Admin, : Eliminate extra white space.


Rrhain

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.
This message is a reply to:
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Granny Magda
Member
Posts: 2320
From: UK
Joined: 11-12-2007
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 37 of 119 (491664)
12-19-2008 4:45 AM
Reply to: Message 35 by Minnemooseus
12-19-2008 2:23 AM


Re: Even tighter - Current Coleman lead: 188 votes
Hi Moose,

The FSM ballot counts, because the write-ins were for "Soil and Water Conservation District Supervisor". The actual senatorial vote was clearly for Franken.

The picture is from the Minnesota Independent. I found it via Pharyngula.

I think the FSM would be a good choice. After all, he only made the soil and water last Thursday. He wouldn't want to see them go to waste already.

Mutate and Survive


"The Bible is like a person, and if you torture it long enough, you can get it to say almost anything you'd like it to say." -- Rev. Dr. Francis H. Wade
This message is a reply to:
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fallacycop
Member (Idle past 3051 days)
Posts: 692
From: Fortaleza-CE Brazil
Joined: 02-18-2006


Message 38 of 119 (491702)
12-19-2008 10:39 PM
Reply to: Message 32 by Granny Magda
12-05-2008 10:31 AM


Re: Interesting NY times article
Would it be unreasonable to hold another vote in such circumstances? With such large numbers voting, close outcomes like this have got to be a rare event, so it seems practical enough to hold the occasional second ballot.

How close would it have to be in order for us to declare it to close to call? Even if some number could be stablished, say 100 votes for instance, what would we do if an election came down to 99 votes (or 101)? would we declare it to close to call wheather it is to close to call? As you can see, introducing a third possible outcome for an election - to close to call - between the two traditional ones - A wins, or B wins - does not preclude the need to make a decision and therefore doesn't really solve the problem. Might as well leave things the way they are.
This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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fallacycop
Member (Idle past 3051 days)
Posts: 692
From: Fortaleza-CE Brazil
Joined: 02-18-2006


Message 39 of 119 (491703)
12-19-2008 10:45 PM
Reply to: Message 35 by Minnemooseus
12-19-2008 2:23 AM


Re: Even tighter - Current Coleman lead: 188 votes
The lizard people balot was declared an overvote. Nothig to do with being distinctive.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 35 by Minnemooseus, posted 12-19-2008 2:23 AM Minnemooseus has not yet responded

  
Granny Magda
Member
Posts: 2320
From: UK
Joined: 11-12-2007
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 40 of 119 (491734)
12-20-2008 12:52 PM
Reply to: Message 38 by fallacycop
12-19-2008 10:39 PM


Re: Interesting NY times article
Ah, you're right of course FC. It is unsatisfying that situations like this leave no-one with much of a mandate, but I suppose that's just tough.

On the bright side, it seems as though the recount process in Minnesota has been exemplary, if slow. I have seen no real reason for the eventual loser, whoever it may be, to gripe about the process.

Mutate and Survive


"The Bible is like a person, and if you torture it long enough, you can get it to say almost anything you'd like it to say." -- Rev. Dr. Francis H. Wade
This message is a reply to:
 Message 38 by fallacycop, posted 12-19-2008 10:39 PM fallacycop has not yet responded

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Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6149
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 41 of 119 (491746)
12-20-2008 3:45 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by Granny Magda
12-20-2008 12:52 PM


Granny Magda writes:

quote:
On the bright side, it seems as though the recount process in Minnesota has been exemplary, if slow.

And notice how the state of Minnesota hasn't collapsed due to the length of the process. There is no rioting in the street, the citizens are not screaming in anguish because the election hasn't been decided yet...

...unlike eight years ago when the Republicans were predicting the end of the universe because of the need for a recount which was never carried out.


Rrhain

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.
This message is a reply to:
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subbie
Member (Idle past 237 days)
Posts: 3508
Joined: 02-26-2006


Message 42 of 119 (491758)
12-20-2008 6:10 PM
Reply to: Message 41 by Rrhain
12-20-2008 3:45 PM


quote:
And notice how the state of Minnesota hasn't collapsed due to the length of the process. There is no rioting in the street, the citizens are not screaming in anguish because the election hasn't been decided yet...

In the first place, it's too bleedin' cold to riot in the streets up there. In the second place, Minnesnowtans aren't exactly known for outrageous public displays of emotion. I seem to recall Howard Mohr recounting an incident in his excellent treatise How to Talk Minnesotan where a Minnesota chap returned from WWII and his wife greated him with a handshake, saying, "So, you're back, then?"


Those who would sacrifice an essential liberty for a temporary security will lose both, and deserve neither. -- Benjamin Franklin

We see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat


This message is a reply to:
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Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6149
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 43 of 119 (491903)
12-24-2008 1:46 AM


http://senaterecount.startribune.com/ballots/

Al Franken leads by 46 votes as of Tuesday, 4:40 pm.

 ColemanFrankenUnallocated
Challenged ballots awarded by board2,9553,189 
New votes from rejected absentee ballots000
Current vote count including awarded ballots1,211,8901,211,936 


Rrhain

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.
Replies to this message:
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RAZD
Member
Posts: 18968
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 44 of 119 (491950)
12-24-2008 6:24 PM
Reply to: Message 43 by Rrhain
12-24-2008 1:46 AM


Minnesota vs Florida
I can't help but wonder what the final outcome of the 2000 election would have been if they had been so ... civilized? ... thorough? ... patient about the recounting there, rather than trying to stampede the results to fit a non-existent calendar.

I note that we are still before the inauguration time ...

Enjoy.


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This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6149
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 45 of 119 (491960)
12-24-2008 7:52 PM
Reply to: Message 44 by RAZD
12-24-2008 6:24 PM


RAZD writes:

quote:
I can't help but wonder what the final outcome of the 2000 election would have been if they had been so ... civilized? ... thorough? ... patient about the recounting there, rather than trying to stampede the results to fit a non-existent calendar.

We already know the answer to this. NORC went through every single ballot and counted them all according to the various standards available. The conclusion is that if a state-wide recount would have been carried out, no matter the standard used, Gore would have won. The only method by which Bush would win was the method Gore had proposed: A limited, only certain counties method. A full recount of all votes had Gore winning.

That said, there is a calendar with regard to the Presidential election. The Senate can function if one of its members isn't available. However, the actual election of the President happens when the Electoral College meets. The electors need to know the results of the election in order to cast their vote. If the State hasn't figured out the results of the election by then, that election gets thrown off.

I don't know the specifics, but if we assume that the Electoral College doesn't meet, we then have Congress determining who is going to be President until such time as a qualifying person shall be made present.

Before that, the Legislature of Florida could have made a decision regarding how to apportion the electors in lieu of a valid election. In order for them to do that, though, it needs to be determined that the election is spoiled and that no winner could be declared. In order for that to happen, though, an actual recount would need to take place.

And here's the thing: If the Republicans would have just left well enough alone and stopped trying to delay things through their lawsuits (remember, it was the Republicans who ran to the courts, not the Democrats) and their staged riots (recounting efforts needed to stop in many places due to rioters who were paid for and bused in by the RNC), the recount could have been completed in time. But because of the interference by the Republicans, the SCOTUS declared that there wasn't enough time to do the recount and voided all efforts to determine the actual winner.

quote:
I note that we are still before the inauguration time

That's for the President, not the Senate. Congress has its first meeting in under two weeks, January 3. This was a running joke of Franken's while he was still on Air America:

Congress goes into session officially on January 3. Thus, time for a quickie impeachment. The House can write up the charges, the trial can happen in the Senate, and just in time for the inauguration, Bush and Cheney can be kicked out of office, preventing them the satisfaction of making it to the ends of their terms. We get a new President on the 20th, and life can move on.


Rrhain

Thank you for your submission to Science. Your paper was reviewed by a jury of seventh graders so that they could look for balance and to allow them to make up their own minds. We are sorry to say that they found your paper "bogus," specifically describing the section on the laboratory work "boring." We regret that we will be unable to publish your work at this time.
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