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Author Topic:   A point about probability
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 3 of 65 (517017)
07-28-2009 8:19 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Stagamancer
07-28-2009 5:22 PM


probability nothing ...
... this just proves the power of prayer ...
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Stagamancer, posted 07-28-2009 5:22 PM Stagamancer has replied

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 Message 4 by Stagamancer, posted 07-28-2009 8:26 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 11 of 65 (517727)
08-02-2009 10:54 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by slevesque
08-02-2009 3:50 AM


What is the problem with probability calculations?
Hi Slevesque,
A shame this discussion didn't continue
Probably because there are too many unknowns to even know how to begin to calculate the probabilities.
Players
What club player is using
How well he knows the course
Weather
Condition of green
Slope/s of green
How many balls on the green
Distribution of balls from pin
etc
etc
...
including, perhaps the most important: how many different combinations of balls, hits and trajectories would end up with a hole in one.
This is the basic problem with trying to calculate realistic probabilities for any physical action -- if you don't know all the possible outcomes then you can't figure the possibilities.
This is why the "it's so improbable it can't have happened" argument fails every time - calculations are based on assumptions, often silly and false assumptions.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by slevesque, posted 08-02-2009 3:50 AM slevesque has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by slevesque, posted 08-02-2009 11:27 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
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