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Author Topic:   A point about probability
onifre
Member (Idle past 2951 days)
Posts: 4854
From: Dark Side of the Moon
Joined: 02-20-2008


Message 20 of 65 (518341)
08-05-2009 12:05 PM
Reply to: Message 18 by slevesque
08-03-2009 4:07 AM


Yeah, that's what I also think, and why I do think that the probability argument against abiogenesis is viable
But it's only viable as a thought experiment, because no matter what the improbability comes out to be, the fact remains that life exists and that would point to a process of abiogenesis, regardless of the improbability.
Like the golf making that shot, the improbability of it happening existed before he took the shot, and yet it happened. In the same sense that, no matter how improbable abiogenesis might be, life exists and therefore trumps the results of the improbabality.
- Oni

This message is a reply to:
 Message 18 by slevesque, posted 08-03-2009 4:07 AM slevesque has replied

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onifre
Member (Idle past 2951 days)
Posts: 4854
From: Dark Side of the Moon
Joined: 02-20-2008


Message 49 of 65 (520154)
08-19-2009 4:02 PM
Reply to: Message 46 by InGodITrust
08-19-2009 2:48 PM


Something that happens once in a thousand years now would happen once in a million years.
Here's an improbabality, a poker hand occuring that the chances of it happening are 1 in 2.7 billion. Almost completely impossible, yet, it occured.
Improbabality serves no purpose in hindsight since the end result, whether it's 4 Aces being beaten by a Royal Flush or multiple mutations occuring, can be seen.
What are the odds of it happening again? The same as it happening the first time, yet it happened regardless of the improbabality.
- Oni
Edited by onifre, : No reason given.

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 Message 46 by InGodITrust, posted 08-19-2009 2:48 PM InGodITrust has replied

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