Message 16 of 33 (609726) 03-22-2011 4:51 PM

Reply to: Message 11 by GDR 03-21-2011 1:54 PM

What would a "no-fly zone" only policy look like to the libyans on the ground, and by extension to the rest of the arab world? Do NATO and American planes fly over cities doing nothing as the Libyan army slaughters dissidents by the thousands? Is the excuse, "Well, they weren't in planes so there was nothing we could do," going to carry any weight?

Message 17 of 33 (609735) 03-22-2011 6:31 PM

Reply to: Message 16 by Taq 03-22-2011 4:51 PM

I have considerable sympathy with that argument but I believe that the west has to take the long term view. The Arab League supported the west establishing a no-fly zone which made it a reasonable idea to intervene to that degree.

Once we go further than that the west can then be seen as picking winners and losers in the conflict and it will be construed as more western intervention in Arab affairs. If the rebels are victorious they will need to have credibility in order to establish government and build international relationships. If they are seen as being beholding to the west I think that this will be very difficult. (That is assuming that we in the west don't wind up getting involved politically which would make a bad situation worse IMHO). AS I said earlier it is important that this be viewed as an internal matter and not one that is being dictated by the west.

Right now there are a number of countries in that part of the world whose governments are being seriously tested. By over stepping the mark in Syria we might cause other rebel groups to assume that we will step in to any similar situation over there. (Also, with what we are doing in Syria I think it is also fair to ask why we weren't in Sudan.)

In all fairness though I freely admit to being anything but an expert on Middle Eastern affairs but that is how it appears to me.

Message 19 of 33 (609747) 03-22-2011 7:18 PM

Reply to: Message 18 by jar 03-22-2011 6:46 PM

Didn't I just say that I wasn't an expert in MIddle Eastern affairs? Don't know where that came from. Obviously I meant Libya.

Message 20 of 33 (609753) 03-22-2011 8:30 PM

Reply to: Message 19 by GDR 03-22-2011 7:18 PM

Well they had some pro democracy protests a few days back too 4 protesters where killed and a few hundred injured all we got from NATO is the use of deadly force was unacceptable. Hm i guess the facts that their oil pumping has been dwindling from 600 000 bbl/d in 1995 to 425 000 bbl/d and that most experts agree that Syria will become a net importer of petroleum by 2012, dont make Syria the best candidate to get helped by NATO to become a peaceful democracy, and their civilians are not that high on the wee need to protect them list.

Message 21 of 33 (609817) 03-23-2011 11:28 AM

It appears he only has short range ,300km, version of scud, but he was/is developing longer range missiles as well...see link below

www.missilethreat.com

cant get this to link to the page I want, sorry. You can go there with this link and just click on missile of the world database from there home page, lots of good stuff on missile defense also.

Edited by fearandloathing, : No reason given.

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Edited by fearandloathing, : link issues...arrrgh

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Message 22 of 33 (609818) 03-23-2011 11:33 AM

Reply to: Message 17 by GDR 03-22-2011 6:31 PM

All very true. However, I don't think the current escalated intervention can be construed as picking a winner. We are picking a loser but one who everyone else in the arab world thinks is a loser. If the West only concerns itself with preventing large scale violence and keeps out of the political process I think they will come out looking fine.

Or why we haven't stepped in to stop genocide throughout Africa.

Message 23 of 33 (609821) 03-23-2011 11:59 AM

Reply to: Message 22 by Taq 03-23-2011 11:33 AM

The news today seems to indicate that Arab support is actually increasing so you may well be right. Let's just hope and pray that you are.

I agree but how do you do it. Like they found out yesterday in rescuing the downed crew from that F15 you can't tell the good guys from the bad guys from the air, and if you put in ground troops it becomes another quagmire like Somalia.

Message 24 of 33 (609823) 03-23-2011 12:36 PM

Reply to: Message 23 by GDR 03-23-2011 11:59 AM

From an F-15 you can tell the difference between a delivery truck and a tank. The people protesting in Libya are not driving tanks. If the protests are as well supported as is portrayed in the media then an army with just small arms would have a difficult time quelling the protests. I would also assume that a lot of libyan citizens are armed like in Iraq. Of course, aircraft are not going to engage armed troops in a suburban setting. It would take boots on the ground to make a difference in this setting, something that NATO and the UN have stated they will not be doing at the moment.

In Somlia there were not large tank divisions or an air force to speak of.

Edited by Taq, : No reason given.

Message 25 of 33 (609824) 03-23-2011 1:29 PM

Reply to: Message 24 by Taq 03-23-2011 12:36 PM

Rebel tanks and even a helicopter deployed

There is never an easy answer when countries involve themselves in the domestic issues of other countries. It seems though in this case so far so good. With all the weaponry being employed though, there is a lot of opportunity for things to go south in a hurry.

Message 26 of 33 (609836) 03-23-2011 4:50 PM

Reply to: Message 15 by Dr Adequate 03-21-2011 11:54 PM

Nevertheless they are more alligned with Iran (Shiia) and have opposed oppose Mubarak and Gadaffi (Sunni)

quote:

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...Iran has consistently allied itself with the Muslim Brotherhood, even if there have been tensions and rhetorical disputes from time to time. On a strictly political level, Iran also shares the Brotherhood's deep animosity for Hosni Mubarak's regime. Iran also shared the Egyptian Islamists' hatred of Anwar Sadat, which is why Khomeini had a street named after Khalid Islambouli -- Sadat's assassin -- and declared him a martyr. Since Islambouli was an Egyptian Islamic Jihad operative, we have come back to Ayman al Zawahiri's part in this story.

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No. I'm looking for the emerging messianic era which this is all leading up to. To delve into that would be another topic. It has been alluded to in other threads.

Message 28 of 33 (630150) 08-22-2011 6:54 PM

A statement from President Obama:

There remains a degree of uncertainty, and there are still regime elements who pose a threat. But this much is clear: The Gadhafi regime is coming to an end, and the future of Libya is in the hands of its people. [...] I want to emphasize that this is not over yet. As the regime collapses, there's still fierce fighting in some areas, and we have reports of regime elements threatening to continue fighting. Although it's clear that Qaddafi's rule is over, he still has the opportunity to reduce further bloodshed by explicitly relinquishing power to the people of Libya and calling for those forces that continue to fight to lay down their arms for the sake of Libya. [...] We also pay tribute to Admiral Sam Locklear and all of the men and women in uniform who have saved so many lives over the last several months, including our brave pilots. They've executed their mission with skill and extraordinary bravery, and all of this was done without putting a single U.S. troop on the ground. [...] Finally, the Libyan people: Your courage and character have been unbreakable in the face of the tyrant. An ocean divides us, but we are joined in the basic human longing for freedom, for justice and for dignity. Your revolution is your own, and your sacrifices have been extraordinary. Now, the Libya that you deserve is within your reach. Going forward, we will stay in close coordination with the TNC to support that outcome. And though there will be huge challenges ahead, the extraordinary events in Libya remind us that fear can give way to hope, and that the power of people striving for freedom can bring about a brighter day.

I guess the one thing that's still missing is the capture of Qaddafi. Watch this space.