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EvC Forum Side Orders Coffee House Gun Control Again Summations Only
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Author Topic:   Gun Control Again
Phat
Member
Posts: 10264
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.3


Message 5071 of 5179 (821279)
10-04-2017 7:43 PM
Reply to: Message 5064 by GDR
10-04-2017 4:15 PM


Forensic Panel Profiles Vegas Killer
The Forensic Panelchairman, Dr.Michael Welner who is a forensic psychiatrist, described a broad profile of Stephen Paddock, the Las Vegas mass murderer. I was surprised that he never touched on the compulsive gambling issue, but he did indicate the following:
quote:
Dr. Welner tells us that the first place to begin building an understanding of the killer is to look at his victims. In this case, Paddock had no relationship to the victims. Paddocks victims were also people who represented Americana and guns.

This puts Paddock into a small category of killers who commit a stranger mass homicide. The Dr. then lists the two categories of stranger mass homicides:

  • Persons trying to transcend notoriety to become famous like James Holmes (Dr. Welner worked the James Holmes case)
  • Persons who kill for a cause

    Dr. Welner dismisses the possibility of Paddock killing for notoriety sake because of that:
    is a young mans crime. And this is a sixty-four-year-old with no dramatic mental illness, no major decline, someone whos intact.
    Then he focuses his comments on where the evidence has brought him:

    I think if we want to understand whats behind the crime we should look at James Hodgkinson, the shooter of Congressman Scalise because that crime was intended to be a spectacle of much bigger scope.
    A spectacle is designed to either have some derivative impact or to instigate some cause discussion.
    []People who commit mass killings of folks that they dont know have to be detached and hes detached. Hes many floors away, hes killing them through a scope, theyre dehumanized.
    absolutely people who are gun enthusiasts and who are populists or nationalists in this country are dehumanized. Theyre demonized.

    I travel all over the United States and I dont experience hatred. I turn on the television and I see these people demonized.

    Dr. Welner then cites the CBS executive who said the concert-goers deserved what they got and added that CNN is going to have to answer for how they demonize gun enthusiasts and how CNN actually contributes to mass shooting. And, I believe that they do..


  • According to the doctor its the constant drumbeat coming from the mainstream media that allowed Paddock to feel righteously justified in committing mass murder

    So here is my take on this. Right now, the Right Wing is in control. They are backed by the vast money of the N.R.A. and in addition, are fueling a culture of paranoia that depicts America struggling against the evil in the world, such as Kim Jong Un.

    The Republican majority most definitely does not want to focus on the issue of gun violence or gun ownership rights. our own jar has himself stated that its not the guns...its the people. So its a cultural makeover that is needed. The right-wing ideology depicts a hostile world with many enemies. They salute and glorify police and military personnel. Our culture is authoritarian. The fear of a globalist agenda is being presented as part of the counter agenda of the nationalist right wing.

    Of course, the leftist ideology is in control of much of the media...though unlike Faith, I do not demonize leftist ideology as any worse than far-right authoritarian ideology. I too believe that it is the people. On a bad day, I might blame Satan, but I will agree that it is our collective responsibility to understand our national psychosis.

    Edited by Phat, : No reason given.

    Edited by Phat, : No reason given.


    Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. RC Sproul
    "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." Mark Twain "
    ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
    An atheist is someone who has no invisible means of support~Bishop Fulton J.Sheen

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5064 by GDR, posted 10-04-2017 4:15 PM GDR has not yet responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 5072 by PaulK, posted 10-05-2017 12:32 AM Phat has responded
     Message 5078 by Theodoric, posted 10-05-2017 10:54 AM Phat has responded

    PaulK
    Member
    Posts: 13392
    Joined: 01-10-2003
    Member Rating: 1.7


    Message 5072 of 5179 (821284)
    10-05-2017 12:32 AM
    Reply to: Message 5071 by Phat
    10-04-2017 7:43 PM


    Re: Forensic Panel Profiles Vegas Killer
    Reading that I have to ask if the guy is even a real forensic psychiatrist. It looks like a nasty attempt to forestall any call for restrictions on gun ownership, and suppress criticism of the far right. Even a veiled threat that verges on terrorism.
    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5071 by Phat, posted 10-04-2017 7:43 PM Phat has responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 5082 by Phat, posted 10-05-2017 11:16 AM PaulK has responded

      
    NoNukes
    Member
    Posts: 10129
    From: Central NC USA
    Joined: 08-13-2010
    Member Rating: 1.6


    (1)
    Message 5073 of 5179 (821287)
    10-05-2017 12:58 AM
    Reply to: Message 5069 by ringo
    10-04-2017 4:56 PM


    Re: silencers
    It doesn't matter if silencers have good effects. We ban things because of the bad effects.

    Everything has bad effects. There must be at least some kind of weighing.


    Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

    I was thinking as long as I have my hands up theyre not going to shoot me. This is what Im thinking theyre not going to shoot me. Wow, was I wrong. -- Charles Kinsey

    We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World.

    Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith

    I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5069 by ringo, posted 10-04-2017 4:56 PM ringo has responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 5084 by ringo, posted 10-05-2017 11:35 AM NoNukes has responded

      
    Stile
    Member
    Posts: 3044
    From: Ontario, Canada
    Joined: 12-02-2004
    Member Rating: 3.0


    Message 5074 of 5179 (821291)
    10-05-2017 9:14 AM
    Reply to: Message 5070 by Percy
    10-04-2017 5:57 PM


    Re: Chart Help
    Percy writes:

    A more meaningful correlation for comparing countries would be between the homicide rate and the gun ownership rate, where the number of guns owned isn't considered. The gun ownership rate could be by household or by individual.

    That makes sense, I think. I'm not good at visualizing "rates" in my head... it takes me a while.

    But this would imply:

    IF gun-purchase-rate in the US went down (let's say... everyone stopped acquiring more guns for whatever reason)
    THEN homicide rate would drop as well?
    Even though the "amount of guns existing in the public" is a very high number.

    That makes a certain amount of sense.

    Like you're saying... the gun collector thing.
    Those that collect guns, buy 1 every now and then and store them. Barely (perhaps even never) using them.

    However, if there's trouble-a-foot (like, a gang war or large-scale intentions of violence) then there's a motivation to acquire "more and more and more" guns... and use them. This would drive the rate-of-gun-ownership up.

    Is that the general idea?
    That makes sense to me.

    Here's a scatterplot I made and posted in Message 3018. It shows that by state there is no apparent relationship between gun prevalence and gun homicides:

    Right.
    This seems similar to the scatter plot I linked to in the article (#18).
    As you're saying... number of total guns doesn't seem to make much difference... but the rate at which guns are being acquired does.
    This graph shows how "total guns doesn't seem to make much difference..." but doesn't show anything about the rate at which guns are being acquired. I think?

    Here's a great paper originally posted in Message 3151 that found that each percentage point increase in gun ownership resulted in a .9% increase in gun homicide:

    This one I find confusing again.
    Is this saying that the number of guns does make a difference? More guns = more homicide, regardless of rate-of-acquisition?

    I suppose if the rate is increasing... and this results in more homicides... then during that time of rate-increase a graph that shows number-of-guns vs. number-of-homicides will show that more guns = more homicides.

    We would need another graph of number of guns vs. homicides after the rate stopped increasing in order to see if it's just the rate or number-of-guns alone.

    Perhaps that's my problem causing confusion? Just the timing at which certain data points are selected for viewing purposes?

    Edited by Stile, : Wrong quote name


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5070 by Percy, posted 10-04-2017 5:57 PM Percy has responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 5075 by RAZD, posted 10-05-2017 9:56 AM Stile has acknowledged this reply
     Message 5076 by Percy, posted 10-05-2017 10:04 AM Stile has acknowledged this reply
     Message 5091 by Modulous, posted 10-05-2017 4:01 PM Stile has acknowledged this reply

      
    RAZD
    Member
    Posts: 19329
    From: the other end of the sidewalk
    Joined: 03-14-2004
    Member Rating: 2.2


    Message 5075 of 5179 (821296)
    10-05-2017 9:56 AM
    Reply to: Message 5074 by Stile
    10-05-2017 9:14 AM


    Re: Chart Help
    One thing is pretty certain ...

    People who kill with guns are more likely to (be in households that) own the guns than be people (in households) that don't own guns.

    Enjoy


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    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5074 by Stile, posted 10-05-2017 9:14 AM Stile has acknowledged this reply

    Percy
    Member
    Posts: 16355
    From: New Hampshire
    Joined: 12-23-2000
    Member Rating: 2.3


    (2)
    Message 5076 of 5179 (821297)
    10-05-2017 10:04 AM
    Reply to: Message 5074 by Stile
    10-05-2017 9:14 AM


    Re: Chart Help
    Fundamental to the gun debate is an inherent disagreement about the dangers of guns. Gun nuts think guns make you safer, sane people understand that guns are inherently dangerous. Safely acquiring a gun for protection requires training and periodic retraining and practice and figuring out how to store the gun safely and also figuring out how a safely stored gun is going to be available for protection and being vigilant about never leaving the gun out and never leaving the safety off and never having the gun loaded (again leaving open the question of how it provides protection) and knowing that you will never become sad or mentally ill or angry. Once all these issues have been addressed (and probably other issues I've forgotten) only then is the gun safe.

    Gun nuts don't find these issues of particular concern but instead continually assert, without evidence, that guns make you safer. That's why that paper (The Relationship Between Gun Ownership and Firearm Homicide Rates in the United States, 19812010 that's now behind a paywall) and others like it (don't particularly feel like conducting a research search at the moment, maybe later) are so important. They show unequivocally that increases in gun ownership leads to increases in gun homicide.

    I won't comment about the rest of your post about rates, other than to say that I agree that there is something different about the way you're looking at rates. I don't believe there are any studies about the outcomes of changes in the gun acquisition rate. It has been said many times that even if Americans stopped buying guns today, there are already so many guns in the population and guns wear out so slowly that it would be literally decades before this reduction in gun buying to zero would have any effect.

    --Percy


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5074 by Stile, posted 10-05-2017 9:14 AM Stile has acknowledged this reply

      
    Stile
    Member
    Posts: 3044
    From: Ontario, Canada
    Joined: 12-02-2004
    Member Rating: 3.0


    Message 5077 of 5179 (821298)
    10-05-2017 10:18 AM


    Percy writes:

    I won't comment about the rest of your post about rates, other than to say that I agree that there is something different about the way you're looking at rates. I don't believe there are any studies about the outcomes of changes in the gun acquisition rate.

    Does anyone else want to comment on my confusion about the rates?

    I'm just trying to understand the seeming-contradiction between the scatter plots and the bar graphs.

    Scatter plots seem to imply that number of guns has no connection with number of homicides.
    Bar graphs seem to imply that more guns = more homicides.

    Both results (no connection vs. more = more) can't be right at the same time.

    I'm just trying to understand an explanation for this discrepancy in the data.

    Is someone creating graphs to make it look better for one side over the other?
    If so, how?

    Is there a mundane explanation (like the one about rates) that explains the issue?
    If so, what is the proper understanding? (Does more guns only = more homicides when the rate of gun acquisition is increasing?)

    Is someone simply fudging the data?
    If so, how?


      
    Theodoric
    Member
    Posts: 5772
    From: Northwest, WI, USA
    Joined: 08-15-2005
    Member Rating: 9.6


    (1)
    Message 5078 of 5179 (821300)
    10-05-2017 10:54 AM
    Reply to: Message 5071 by Phat
    10-04-2017 7:43 PM


    Re: Forensic Panel Profiles Vegas Killer
    Of course, the leftist ideology is in control of much of the media...

    But alas, you have no data or evidence to back this up

    Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

    "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

    If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5071 by Phat, posted 10-04-2017 7:43 PM Phat has responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 5079 by Phat, posted 10-05-2017 11:03 AM Theodoric has responded
     Message 5087 by RAZD, posted 10-05-2017 12:15 PM Theodoric has not yet responded

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 10264
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 1.3


    Message 5079 of 5179 (821301)
    10-05-2017 11:03 AM
    Reply to: Message 5078 by Theodoric
    10-05-2017 10:54 AM


    Re: Forensic Panel Profiles Vegas Killer
    I suppose it was an assumption. Lemme do a bit of googling and sift through the propaganda... and while I'm at it I'll make another assumption. This whole idea of "fake news" has some validity in my mind and I dont believe that it is either a Leftist plot or a Far Right plot. These days there is so much information out there and it cannot be taken without question. When I was growing up, we had the World Book Encyclopedia as our internet, and it was usually a trusted source. These days, however, I can find ten articles on the internet and need to actively discriminate as to the best most accurate one.

    If I run it through my bias towards Theism, Conservativism or Liberalism, I will arrive at differing lists for the most accurate. How does one remain unbiased when choosing which sources are the closest to the truth?


    Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. RC Sproul
    "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." Mark Twain "
    ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
    An atheist is someone who has no invisible means of support~Bishop Fulton J.Sheen

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5078 by Theodoric, posted 10-05-2017 10:54 AM Theodoric has responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 5081 by Theodoric, posted 10-05-2017 11:06 AM Phat has acknowledged this reply

    Theodoric
    Member
    Posts: 5772
    From: Northwest, WI, USA
    Joined: 08-15-2005
    Member Rating: 9.6


    (1)
    Message 5080 of 5179 (821303)
    10-05-2017 11:05 AM
    Reply to: Message 5063 by DrJones*
    10-04-2017 4:01 PM


    Re: silencers
    The problem in the US is that those that know guns the most(The NRA) are writing the laws. Then they get their stooges in congress to pass them. Or they get their stooges to block any law they do not like.

    This whole hunters need silencers is a red herring. I hunt, I have shot guns since I was a teen. When I shoot I use hearing protection. If you do not wear hearing protection that is your problem.

    The sound of gun fire allows for safe discharge of weapons. Also, here in the country it allows us to know if someone is illegally shooting or poaching on our property. In the last 5 years I have caught 5 poachers because of the sound of gunfire. Also, people shoot on public land around here. The sound of gunfire is an effective warning signal.

    No one has yet produced an adequate reasonable argument why a legal, ethical hunter needs a suppressor. Maybe you can be the first.


    Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

    "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

    If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5063 by DrJones*, posted 10-04-2017 4:01 PM DrJones* has not yet responded

      
    Theodoric
    Member
    Posts: 5772
    From: Northwest, WI, USA
    Joined: 08-15-2005
    Member Rating: 9.6


    (1)
    Message 5081 of 5179 (821304)
    10-05-2017 11:06 AM
    Reply to: Message 5079 by Phat
    10-05-2017 11:03 AM


    Re: Forensic Panel Profiles Vegas Killer
    Here is a good place for you to start. Look at the ownership of media outlets. Don't fall for propaganda do your own research.

    Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

    "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

    If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5079 by Phat, posted 10-05-2017 11:03 AM Phat has acknowledged this reply

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 10264
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 1.3


    Message 5082 of 5179 (821307)
    10-05-2017 11:16 AM
    Reply to: Message 5072 by PaulK
    10-05-2017 12:32 AM


    Re: Forensic Panel Profiles Vegas Killer
    PaulK writes:

    Reading that I have to ask if the guy is even a real forensic psychiatrist. It looks like a nasty attempt to forestall any call for restrictions on gun ownership, and suppress criticism of the far right. Even a veiled threat that verges on terrorism.

    Well, I saw him on a conservative news source: Fox & Friends. Evidently he is the real deal, although I agree that his answer seemed designed to strike back at liberal criticism...so his "authority" is being used to strike a blow in favor of far right ideology against leftist ideology.

    Were it I, I would have added two observations.

    1) The overwhelming majority of mass killers who use guns are male. Guns are a phallic symbol of aggression.
    2) The compulsive gambling is a huge issue as to what may have triggered his obsessive, detached outburst. Also a reason why he may have been suicidal to begin with. An angry white male.

    Was his attack politically motivated? Was he one of Trumps base? If so, why kill country music folks? They are Trumps base too, 60% or so plus.


    Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. RC Sproul
    "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." Mark Twain "
    ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
    An atheist is someone who has no invisible means of support~Bishop Fulton J.Sheen

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5072 by PaulK, posted 10-05-2017 12:32 AM PaulK has responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 5083 by PaulK, posted 10-05-2017 11:24 AM Phat has not yet responded

    PaulK
    Member
    Posts: 13392
    Joined: 01-10-2003
    Member Rating: 1.7


    Message 5083 of 5179 (821310)
    10-05-2017 11:24 AM
    Reply to: Message 5082 by Phat
    10-05-2017 11:16 AM


    Re: Forensic Panel Profiles Vegas Killer
    I doubt he bothered to gather much information at all.

    I would add that those who kill to publicise a cause generally advertise their cause. He didn't. He may have intended to kill people at an earlier musical event, too, so I don't think we can assume that he particularly cared who he killed.

    Notoriety seems a more likely motivation since he would get that just by killing enough people. It may not be his actual motive, but it seems likelier than killing for a cause.


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5082 by Phat, posted 10-05-2017 11:16 AM Phat has not yet responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 5085 by Percy, posted 10-05-2017 11:42 AM PaulK has not yet responded

      
    ringo
    Member
    Posts: 14014
    From: frozen wasteland
    Joined: 03-23-2005
    Member Rating: 1.7


    Message 5084 of 5179 (821312)
    10-05-2017 11:35 AM
    Reply to: Message 5073 by NoNukes
    10-05-2017 12:58 AM


    Re: silencers
    NoNukes writes:

    Everything has bad effects. There must be at least some kind of weighing.


    Who said otherwise?
    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5073 by NoNukes, posted 10-05-2017 12:58 AM NoNukes has responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 5089 by NoNukes, posted 10-05-2017 1:35 PM ringo has responded

    Percy
    Member
    Posts: 16355
    From: New Hampshire
    Joined: 12-23-2000
    Member Rating: 2.3


    (2)
    Message 5085 of 5179 (821314)
    10-05-2017 11:42 AM
    Reply to: Message 5083 by PaulK
    10-05-2017 11:24 AM


    Re: Forensic Panel Profiles Vegas Killer
    PaulK writes:

    Notoriety seems a more likely motivation since he would get that just by killing enough people. It may not be his actual motive, but it seems likelier than killing for a cause.

    My guess for a driving factor for ending his life is that he was running out of money, or that he was seriously in debt. I think the $100,000 he sent his girlfriend was about all that was left, within a $100,000 or two. I understand that this guess doesn't help with divining his motivation for going out in an orgy of murder.

    --Percy


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 5083 by PaulK, posted 10-05-2017 11:24 AM PaulK has not yet responded

    Replies to this message:
     Message 5086 by Phat, posted 10-05-2017 12:14 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

      
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