Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 65 (9162 total)
5 online now:
Newest Member: popoi
Post Volume: Total: 915,821 Year: 3,078/9,624 Month: 923/1,588 Week: 106/223 Day: 4/13 Hour: 0/2


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Self-Driving Cars
Percy
Member
Posts: 22394
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 1 of 28 (688390)
01-22-2013 10:08 AM


Don't know if there's any interest here, but I'm pretty excited about the possibilities presented by self-driving cars. I'm sure most people have heard about Google's self-driving cars, and this year's auto show included several manufacturers displaying self-driving concept-car models.
The impact will be on more than just driving. More than just freeing us from the mundane tasks of keeping our cars on the road, obeying traffic laws and signage, guiding the car to our destination, etc., it should have a significant impact on our roads. Highways full of cars that know the position, speed and intent of all the surrounding cars can sail down the highway at high speed separated by mere feet, and this will hopefully reduce the number of lanes needed. The amount of real estate taken up by roadways should diminish over time.
Even more amazing will be intersections. The need for overpasses, traffic lights, yield signs and stop signs will evaporate. Many bridges and underpasses will go away. Traffic lights will disappear. Stop signs will be a thing of the past. There will be no need to stop at intersections as cars communicate with each other to insure safe passage. Cars on side roads will negotiate paths across busy highways, an appropriately sized space magically opening up in each direction with the speed of traffic barely affected. Two busy intersecting highways would present an amazing mosaic as the streams pass magically through each other.
The effect on fuel consumption will be equally amazing. Imagine what kind of mileage you would get if once started you never stopped until you reached your destination.
But most amazing will be the reduction in automobile related injuries and fatalities. There are currently around 34,000 fatalities per year, and this should easily drop below 1000. Automobile fatalities will be caused by system failures or erroneous information or mechanical failures, but never by driver error such as inattentive driving or driving too fast for conditions. In fact, in the future automobile accidents will be so exceptional that they'll probably be cause for investigation by the National Highway Safety Administration in a manner similar to aircraft accidents.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by Panda, posted 01-22-2013 10:26 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 3 by Taq, posted 01-22-2013 11:03 AM Percy has replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3713 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 2 of 28 (688395)
01-22-2013 10:26 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
01-22-2013 10:08 AM


Or:
The only 'obstacle' I envision is people learning to trust technology.
But if we start with 'assisted' driving, and then gradually increase how much is automated, we will eventually have 100% automatic cars.
Automated cars should also prevent Traffic Waves.
Edited by Panda, : No reason given.

"There is no great invention, from fire to flying, which has not been hailed as an insult to some god." J. B. S. Haldane

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Percy, posted 01-22-2013 10:08 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 9975
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.7


(2)
Message 3 of 28 (688403)
01-22-2013 11:03 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Percy
01-22-2013 10:08 AM


Highways full of cars that know the position, speed and intent of all the surrounding cars can sail down the highway at high speed separated by mere feet,
That scares the bejesus out of me. What if the car ahead of you blows a tire or has some other major catastrophic breakdown? What if there is a deer on the road, or even a person? The chances for a massive pileup seem quite high, at least to me.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Percy, posted 01-22-2013 10:08 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by Panda, posted 01-22-2013 11:13 AM Taq has not replied
 Message 5 by Percy, posted 01-22-2013 11:31 AM Taq has replied
 Message 6 by Phat, posted 01-22-2013 12:00 PM Taq has not replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3713 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 4 of 28 (688406)
01-22-2013 11:13 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by Taq
01-22-2013 11:03 AM


[*Deleted* I must read posts properly before replying!]
Edited by Panda, : No reason given.
Edited by Panda, : No reason given.

"There is no great invention, from fire to flying, which has not been hailed as an insult to some god." J. B. S. Haldane

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Taq, posted 01-22-2013 11:03 AM Taq has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22394
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 5 of 28 (688410)
01-22-2013 11:31 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by Taq
01-22-2013 11:03 AM


Taq writes:
What if the car ahead of you blows a tire...
With that car and all surrounding cars under computer control it shouldn't be a problem. Let's imagine something much more difficult, a car at night with it's lights off under manual control and not in communication with the network or other cars crossing the median and plowing head on into oncoming traffic. Long before the car reaches oncoming lanes the automatically controlled cars will have seen it coming, projected its possible range of paths, and coordinated all their motions to avoid it, including avoidance strategies for other manually controlled cars in the vicinity.
What if there is a deer on the road, or even a person?
These kinds of obstacles are already detected by the current crop of experimental cars. I've only seen a brief description of how these cars currently "see", but there's a device mounted on top that with mirrors directs a laser beam in all directions and then uses the reflected light to figure out where everything is.
I think there will be a great deal of resistance in the beginning because of the loss of control. People will still die with automated driving, and even though it will be tens of thousands less deaths, people will still feel uncomfortable not being in control. Being in a car will be like being in an airplane so far as being in control goes.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Taq, posted 01-22-2013 11:03 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by Taq, posted 01-22-2013 7:46 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 18 by Stile, posted 01-23-2013 2:15 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18262
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 6 of 28 (688415)
01-22-2013 12:00 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Taq
01-22-2013 11:03 AM


sweet surrender
I think the main issue is the surrender of control to automation. Can automation do a better job than the most skilled human? Can it do so on a reliable basis...allowing of course for occasional system error?
Can we humans surrender our own control in the interest of better survival rates?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Taq, posted 01-22-2013 11:03 AM Taq has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 01-22-2013 4:08 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Tempe 12ft Chicken
Member (Idle past 336 days)
Posts: 438
From: Tempe, Az.
Joined: 10-25-2012


(2)
Message 7 of 28 (688451)
01-22-2013 4:08 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by Phat
01-22-2013 12:00 PM


Re: sweet surrender
Wouldn't it be better to implement the system in stages rather than attempt to get all individuals to go for all automation all the time?
Perhaps starting with roadways that are used less, where an individual stops prior to entering the freeway and the car enters into auto-drive. I think it would be a good idea to ween people off of the control rather than make it a forceful and required decision.
I can think of many roads in Arizona where this could be tested. Perhaps on the Freeways up toward the mountain areas. Although, I can also see how people would be less willing to give up control on winding mountain roads.
Perhaps the best idea would be to select certain freeways within the great plains regions. Use these freeways to test how long it would take for a car to switch onto the network with the cars already in progress down the road. Make it a requirement to switch the car to auto-drive before entering this segment of freeway.
After individuals have seen the technology tested in real life use, I think that asking them relinquish control and trust the automation will be a little easier. Then cities can work on structuring the rest of the freeways and highways.
The very final step would be to connect the network through even the main roads and neighborhoods.
All in all, I am quite excited to see this because it would reduce one level of stress throughout my day...watching jerks speed and run lights all while I try my damnedest to obey all traffic laws.

The theory of evolution by cumulative natural selection is the only theory we know of that is in principle capable of explaining the existence of organized complexity. - Richard Dawkins
Creationists make it sound as though a 'theory' is something you dreamt up after being drunk all night. - Issac Asimov
If you removed all the arteries, veins, & capillaries from a person’s body, and tied them end-to-endthe person will die. - Neil Degrasse Tyson
What would Buddha do? Nothing! What does the Buddhist terrorist do? Goes into the middle of the street, takes the gas, *pfft*, Self-Barbecue. The Christian and the Muslim on either side are yelling, "What the Fuck are you doing?" The Buddhist says, "Making you deal with your shit. - Robin Williams

This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by Phat, posted 01-22-2013 12:00 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9489
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 8 of 28 (688474)
01-22-2013 7:22 PM


Lots and lots of problems but it seems inevitable to me.
But theres's going to be one hell of a problem with the 'installed base' ie all the cars that don't have the equipment. You can't just do a software update and suddenly the guy driving the '75 Chevie at the weekend has the required technology to deal with no traffic lights.....

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 9975
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.7


Message 9 of 28 (688481)
01-22-2013 7:46 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by Percy
01-22-2013 11:31 AM


With that car and all surrounding cars under computer control it shouldn't be a problem.
I just have this horrid image of a nationwide firmware update resulting in hundred car pileups.
I think there will be a great deal of resistance in the beginning because of the loss of control. People will still die with automated driving, and even though it will be tens of thousands less deaths, people will still feel uncomfortable not being in control. Being in a car will be like being in an airplane so far as being in control goes.
At least in an airplane there is another human at the controls. I think this feeds into human psychology a little bit. We simply don't trust automation because we can't understand it, or find a lack of compassion in machines. If a trucker falls asleep at the wheel and runs into oncoming traffic at least you can understand why that happened, and you also know that the driver is probably ridden with guilt. What if a computer program fails for some esoteric reason?
Automation is a tough sell. It may have to come in stages and wait for a generation that has grown up with it.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by Percy, posted 01-22-2013 11:31 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by Dogmafood, posted 01-22-2013 8:47 PM Taq has replied

  
Dogmafood
Member (Idle past 349 days)
Posts: 1815
From: Ontario Canada
Joined: 08-04-2010


Message 10 of 28 (688491)
01-22-2013 8:47 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by Taq
01-22-2013 7:46 PM


Fully automated cars will start as a luxury item and before you know it everyone will want one. In the mean time the bits of technology will continue to show up in our mundane human piloted vehicles. Already your Volkswagen will park itself. There are plenty of cars on the road today that have no mechanical linkage between the steering wheel and the wheels. Once you make that leap you might as well turn it all over. I don't think that acceptance will be a problem at all. My first thought was the Audi from I Robot and who wouldn't want one of those?
I love driving for it's own sake. I sometimes still go driving just because it snowed and I can slide around. As long as there is a manual override then I am all for it.
edit; It will be the impact on the economy that will be a challenge to manage. I can see a lot of jobs disappearing.
Edited by Dogmafood, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by Taq, posted 01-22-2013 7:46 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by AZPaul3, posted 01-23-2013 9:18 AM Dogmafood has replied
 Message 13 by xongsmith, posted 01-23-2013 9:44 AM Dogmafood has not replied
 Message 16 by Taq, posted 01-23-2013 1:53 PM Dogmafood has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 11 of 28 (688509)
01-23-2013 8:48 AM


I'm not so sure about some of the things I'm reading here. Human's very seldom throw out useful present technology for a wholesale paradigm change. I doubt if we will be ripping up tens of thousands of miles of road to lay down cable, sensors and transponders even in piecemeal over generations. For the next number of generations at least the "smart" car will be given the sensors and intelligence without any need to do anything at all to the present infrastructure. The smart car will be able to go from here to there on present streets, stop signs and all, together with all the non-smart human-driven cars.
No need to designate "smart car road only."
I can see upgrades to, maybe, those mile markers on the highways and some traffic light poles in the city with small wireless boxes, think cell phone size, that transmit a map to passing smart cars of the next couple of miles noting construction, intersections, present obstacles, weather alerts and the like. I can see the smart car transmitting a beacon to other smart cars giving info like direction speed and intent ("I'm gonna change to the right lane in 200 meters and will be turning right onto Bell Road") the smart car software able to watch for, accommodate and avoid conflict with the sending units.
I can even see some 22nd century Billy-Bob taking his non-smart antique classic 2021 Hyundai out for a spin required to have a transmitter warning the smart cars that there is a "billybob" on the road, it's right here going this fast, pay special attention for unpredictable behavior.
But I doubt there will be "smart roads" or "smart car only" roads for quite a long time. But then, I've been known to be wrong.
Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by ringo, posted 01-23-2013 1:15 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 12 of 28 (688510)
01-23-2013 9:18 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by Dogmafood
01-22-2013 8:47 PM


I can see a lot of jobs disappearing.
I can't see this. Someone still has to make the car, the power source, the software and sensors. I cannot see where we would lose jobs. In fact, I see a flood of new high-tech engineering and programming jobs required.
Imagine your authorized dealer mechanic requiring a masters for entry level. Not just one mechanic, either. You need a classic auto guy doing transmissions, brakes, steering, then you need a sensor engineer and then a software geek.
Your smart car rings you up on your implanted personal phone and asks if it can take itself to the dealer since sensor #127B is within mean-time-to-failure limits. You're watching "Barak Obama: Vampire Killer" and don't need to go anywhere for a couple hours so, sure, have at it, and off goes the car sans driver to the auto shop.
OK enough of that.
Anyway, where were you thinking the job losses would come from?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Dogmafood, posted 01-22-2013 8:47 PM Dogmafood has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 19 by Dogmafood, posted 01-23-2013 7:25 PM AZPaul3 has seen this message but not replied

  
xongsmith
Member
Posts: 2578
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 6.8


Message 13 of 28 (688514)
01-23-2013 9:44 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by Dogmafood
01-22-2013 8:47 PM


Dogmafood writes:
I can see a lot of jobs disappearing.
The powerful Teamster's Union will never let this happen alive.

- xongsmith, 5.7d

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Dogmafood, posted 01-22-2013 8:47 PM Dogmafood has not replied

  
ringo
Member (Idle past 412 days)
Posts: 20940
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005


Message 14 of 28 (688539)
01-23-2013 1:15 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by AZPaul3
01-23-2013 8:48 AM


AZPaul3 writes:
...smart car....
I seriously read that as "smart aleck car".
I'm looking into writing a virus for smart cars.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by AZPaul3, posted 01-23-2013 8:48 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by AZPaul3, posted 01-23-2013 1:51 PM ringo has seen this message but not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 15 of 28 (688551)
01-23-2013 1:51 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by ringo
01-23-2013 1:15 PM


I'm looking into writing a virus for smart cars.
If you could find marc9000's car you could bug his radio to play nothing but NPR.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by ringo, posted 01-23-2013 1:15 PM ringo has seen this message but not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024