North Korea there will be blood?

I have been following the rhetoric and posturing coming out of North Korea for the past weeks and must say I am somewhat concerned that war may break out.Other people I talk to pretty much Poo poo the idea that this is anything more than the same old stuff the previous leader did.The media as well seems to down grade the seriousness of what is unfolding.I was curious to hear the input of formites of EVC as to what their thoughts are.1. Is this something to be realisticaly concerned about.2. What would provoke North Korea enough to action?3. What would the likely scenario be if North Korea did fire upon
the South?4. what is a possible solution to stabilize this crisis?I fear it would take but one crossed order on the Norths side to send one shell into Seoul for all out war to errupt. South Korea already endured the deliberate sinking of one of their vessels last year.Coffee house Edited by 1.61803, : spelling

Thread copied here from the North Korea there will be blood? thread in the Proposed New Topics forum.

N. Korea has backed themselves into a corner. Due to sanctions and other factors they are literally starving to death. To alleviate this problem they have two choices: normalize relations and lose face, or start a war that they have no chance of surviving.Their best play is to act the bully and see how much lunch money they can get, and that is exactly what they are doing. I think that the generals are smart enough to know that there is no way that their regime will stay in power if they start an all out war.

Hi Taq, you are probably right. However this pursuit of theirs to obtain a long range nuke is a bit worrisome, not to mention having the balls to actually test the weapons and the delivery rockets in direct violation of the UN. Does anyone think they might just be crazy enough to launch one?Edited by 1.61803, : No reason given.

Someone in the N. Korean administration might be crazy enough to do it, but I think overall there are sane people at the top. If it even appears that they will launch one they have just opened themselves up to a massive US-led, NATO backed invasion that they know they will never survive. Ever. It is suicide.

I served with the US Army at United Nations Command/US Forces Korea Headquarters in the 70s. I remained there as a consultant to the ROK government.Those years included the ax murders of American soldiers at the Truce Village (Panmunjom) and the discovery of multiple North Korean invasion tunnels large enough to carry heavy trucks, tanks and artillery pieces under the DMZ.Between my military service and consult work, I had opportunities to view North Korean print and broadcast propaganda, movies and cartoons, comic books and "histories". Americans were depicted as slavering beasts; North Korean leaders were touted as possessing god-like powers. When the Beloved Leader was scheduled to drive through in his limo, schoolchildren would don traditional garb, sweep the roads with handheld brushes, and scatter flowers in his path. The North Korean military and political leaders are, frankly, imho, batshit crazy.The North Korean people are starving. They are perhaps the most isolated people in the world. As many as 10 million of them are believed to be locked away in labor and reeducation camps.North Korean jets can scramble from their bases near the DMZ and strike Seoul in 60 seconds. Should they decide to nuke that beautiful city, they will. There is no early warning defense of the kind we enjoyed during the successful Mutual Assured Destruction years with Russia, when nuclear strikes were necessarily intercontinental and left windows for immediate retaliation.I attended talks at Panmunjom as a journalist and narrowly escaped a beating from North Korean security. I was, remarkably, warned to flee by a Chinese press attache. China, their closest ally, continues to view them with great unease.Mad? Not mad? Regardless, many wars were begun by ostensibly sane people. I believe the Korean peninsula is the most dangerous place in the world at present. I don't see how anyone with knowledge of both North Korea and world history could believe otherwise.Would the UN/US/world invade North Korea or retaliate if Pyongyang nuked Seoul? I'm not so sure they would, since Pyongyang is believed to have a half dozen or more nukes and at least medium range missiles.North Korea has deftly profited from saber rattling for decades; they have also committed bizarre acts of aggression.I still have friends and family in Seoul. I'm worried.

If North Korea did decide to invade South Korea it's unlikely that they would "test the waters" by attacking only Seoul. It's more likely that Seoul, Pusan, Incheon and probably Taegu would be simultaneously attacked. That would in all probability totally destroy the nation state and government of South Korea.But what would the reaction be from China?What would be the reaction from Russia?Would it be possible today for the UN/US/Western World attempt to invade North Korea today if China opposed that action?Could Japan take any action considering the baggage and history of "Imperial Japan"?

What would North Korea do with South Korea if they captured it and were permitted to keep it?Within a few years, South Korea would be as poverty-stricken as the north is now and millions of people would be dead.The north's repressive regime is not designed to encourage production, initiative, entrepreneurs, or anything like that, and if expanded to the south would only lead to mass starvation of two countries instead of just one.That should be crystal clear comparing the two countries in the 60 years since the war.As just one example, take a look at this photograph of the region at night: The North Korean regimes have forfeited any right to rule, let alone to attempt to conquer their neighbors. Their attempts to acquire nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them should be terminated immediately. Didn't we learn this lesson with Hitler?

Where did that come from?

Is not conquering South Korea what they are threatening to do?

About what they have done with the current land and population. It would likely take a decade or three to use up the wealth of the South. Well no, factually that is simply not true. But how exactly could that be done?Without the at least tacit agreement of China and Russia is their any realistic way to "terminate" either their acquisition of nuclear weapons (horses done left that barn already) or the means to deliver them (oops, that barn door was left open too it seems, horse done left already)?

Not that I have heard. I have not read anything about them "conquering" anywhere. All I have read is that they are threatening to bomb places. I am open to different sources that say otherwise in the event I am incorrect.

Well, I guess that's OK then.

Yes.I am concerned, but I am not in panic. I think that's the appropriate reaction at this stage.It is possible that this is all about internal politics in N. Korea. And, in a way, that may be the scariest possibility. Internal politics can become quite irrational.

Ah, that must have been when Kim Jong-il ordered the entire country to play Sardines.