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Author Topic:   Great debate: radiocarbon dating, Mindspawn and Coyote/RAZD
RAZD
Member
Posts: 18658
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 46 of 119 (711983)
11-25-2013 9:00 AM
Reply to: Message 44 by mindspawn
11-25-2013 6:38 AM


Re: Ignorance and Misunderstanding - Uranium and Thorium
You say that I have provided ZERO evidence , and yet I have shown a link and discussed the method in which they have recently determined the half lives of thorium230 and uranium234:

And yet it is not any evidence of your claims. Evidence for your claims involves some demonstration of your mysterious magical 11-12 events for example, rather than just claims.

Here you make my whole point for me, the decay constant for Th230 and Ur 234 is based on the decay constant for U238. This ruins your case that Thorium dating is an independent measurement. You say "see above for reference to its derivation" and yet none of the above quotes even came close to having any reference to the derivation of the decay constant for U238 on which thorium/uranium decay relies.

AND compared them to previous determinations that were done in the lab -- as I documented. The new values have smaller errors but otherwise replicate the previous ones, and the consilience from using a different methodology to determine their values once again provides high confidence in their accuracy and precision.

Again, if you want to see the lab obtained independent values I suggest you do some reading. Starting here: Half-life of 230Th. It is on-line and tells how the half-life was measured independently in the lab.

I'll get to Uranium-Thorium dating again in greater detail later. In the meantime I await your response to Message 41 and Message 42

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : ..

Edited by RAZD, : .

Edited by RAZD, : ..


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 44 by mindspawn, posted 11-25-2013 6:38 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 56 by mindspawn, posted 11-27-2013 2:34 AM RAZD has responded

  
mindspawn
Member (Idle past 103 days)
Posts: 1015
Joined: 10-22-2012


Message 47 of 119 (712032)
11-26-2013 3:16 AM
Reply to: Message 39 by RAZD
11-20-2013 2:03 PM


Re: Some annual rainfall weather information for your consideration
Most of this post just rehashes refuted arguments and fails to deal honestly with the data.
Correlations and consilience are NOT explained by making stuff up

The consilience is due to scientists cherry picking locations according to a loose match with current carbon dating assumptions. The result is that they choose locations with approximately 10-12 major precipitation events a year, due to the fact that the carbon dates are incorrect by a factor of about 10-12 times.

What is your evidence for this? Saying it does not make it so: you need objective empirical evidence. You have presented ZERO evidence that factually and accurately shows this to be the case. Without evidence that demonstrates your conjecture it is just fantasy.

I note that you are now claiming that the dates are due to some vast conspiracy among all the scientists involved with 14C calibration ...

... one of the mechanisms for reducing dissonance predicted by cognitive dissonance theory.

Just for the record, I don't believe in any vast conspiracy. We will be dealing with the consilience continually in our other discussions , I just felt it necessary to state my position on the alleged conspiracy for the record. I believe the "cherry picking" isn't true cherry picking because its unintentional.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 39 by RAZD, posted 11-20-2013 2:03 PM RAZD has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 50 by RAZD, posted 11-26-2013 8:53 AM mindspawn has not yet responded

  
mindspawn
Member (Idle past 103 days)
Posts: 1015
Joined: 10-22-2012


Message 48 of 119 (712034)
11-26-2013 4:42 AM
Reply to: Message 41 by RAZD
11-21-2013 3:28 PM


Re: Dendrochronology Basics
To complicate matters further, certain tree species may produce a “double” or “false” ring; when the earlywood cells (i.e., those in the ring that are larger, thin walled, and therefore lighter) are being produced during a growing season, and particularly stressful climatic conditions return and lead to a general decrease in the rate of tree growth, a band of latewood cells (i.e., those that are smaller, thicker walled, and therefore darker) will be produced. If and when favorable conditions return during that growing season, earlywood cell production will begin anew, and the normal band of latewood cells will be created at the end of the growing season (Jacoby, 2000a). The key to distinguishing between double or false rings and annual rings lies in the nature of the transition between the latewood and earlywood cells: in a false or double ring the transition is gradual due to the phasing in and out of favorable growing conditions (Fig. 3).

In an annual tree ring, the transition from one ring’s latewood to the next ring’s earlywood is abrupt because ring production actually stopped for some period of time, typically during winter.

Thanks for the educational post. It didn't cover our points of dispute though and so I quoted only the relevant sections. I feel you still have not faced the fact that the Bristlecone Pines are in a unique situation, lacking any gradual transitions between favorable and unfavorable conditions. The conditions are always unfavorable, that is why there is a growth ring for every significant precipitation event. Multiple rings have been proven in experiments.

I am still waiting to for your explanation why there would not be a thin growth ring during a significant summer rainfall that occurs between two dry spells in the dry White Mountain region. I see no other possibility, and have already dealt with your "snow melt in spring" argument.

The fundamental principle of dendrochronology is crossdating (Fig. 1), which is classically defined as “the procedure of matching ring width variations . . . among trees that have grown in nearby areas, allowing the identification of the exact year in which each ring formed” (Fritts, 1976, p. 534).

Regarding your figure 1, I definitely agree that overlaps as shown in the diagram would make a strong case, provided those are proven annual layers and the annual layers remained annual throughout the chronology. My problem with crossdating is that the overlaps in reality may not be as clear as shown in the diagram. A sequence of four or five rings even if differing in dates would naturally overlap over time merely through statistical probability. We need a long matching sequence as shown in the diagram to eliminate the strong statistical probability of short sequences showing matching patterns.

Note that Foxtail pines (Pinus balfouriana) are closely related to Bristlecone pines ((Pinus longaeva), but the ranges of Great Basin bristlecone, Rocky Mountain bristlecone, and Foxtail pines do not overlap. The Colorado-Green River drainage has separated the 2 Bristlecone pine species for millennia. All three species are used to cross-check the Bristlecone Pine chronology.

This inability of any single species to successfully cross-date with Bristlecone Pines is not a strong argument for cross-dating Bristlecone Pines. Neither is it clear if they are specifically referring to the ancient White Mountain Bristlecone Pines which are in the driest region, or possibly they are referring to other stands of these trees. If I could actually see diagrams like Figure 1, it would be easy to see how well they have cross-dated or if the overlaps are merely superficial over a few rings.

Note in passing that the minimum age for the earth is 7,000 years based on single Bristlecone Pines having lived that long. This also means that there was no major catastrophic event that would have disturbed their growing on top of these mountains -- no world wide flood occurred in this time.

A premature conclusion considering that you have not yet shown how a tree in a truly dry area would not respond with growth to each significant summer rainfall between completely arid dry spells in soil that retains no moisture (White Mountains).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 41 by RAZD, posted 11-21-2013 3:28 PM RAZD has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 51 by RAZD, posted 11-26-2013 9:51 AM mindspawn has responded
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mindspawn
Member (Idle past 103 days)
Posts: 1015
Joined: 10-22-2012


Message 49 of 119 (712035)
11-26-2013 5:35 AM
Reply to: Message 42 by RAZD
11-22-2013 9:17 AM


Re: Some annual rainfall weather information for your consideration
For the simple reasons that :

the Irish oak dendrochronology is longer, goes further into the past, than the Bristlecone Pine,
the German oak and pine dendrochronology is longer, goes further into the past, than the Bristlecone Pine,
the extremely high consilience of these two dendrochronologies shows that the information has an extremely high degree of confidence (a better phrase than "truth" in scientific speak), and
the very high consilience (99.5% agreement) of the Bristlecone Pine dendrochronology with these two chronologies gives us a very high degree of confidence that it is accurate and precise and actually does represent annual layers.
Curiously, if you now accept the Irish and German chronologies, then your original "main problem" Message 3

My problem with the Irish and German chronologies is that they only seem to match the Bristlecone Pine chronologies in ancient times. Even trees in close proximity to the White Mountain bristlecone pines do not show consistent chronology matches in recent times. MY conclusion from the soil/weather of the White Mountains is that the nature of wood growth absolutely requires multiple rings there, and their match with Europe's trees during the Middle/Early holocene indicates that in fact Irish and German chronologies ALSO had multiple rings during the Middle/Early Holocene. Thus early and Middle Holocene dates are out by thousands of years due to the dry weather and intermittent summer rainfalls of the early/middle Holocene causing multiple tree ring growth.

The following link is to indicate early holocene dry weather and reduced summer rainfall patterns which match the current weather conditions of the BCP trees in the White Mountains:
http://hol.sagepub.com/content/16/2/153.abstract
"We show (i) that winters were drier and summers shorter and cooler in western Europe during colder periods in Greenland, (ii) in contrast to the present-day climate in the Holzmaar region, summer rains were clearly reduced during the early Holocene, and (iii) the climate not only changed rapidly (< 5 years) but recurring drier events were common during the studied period."

ie perfect conditions for multiple tree rings existed in Europe (dry cold climate with rare rainfall in the warmer growth season), dates are therefore over-estimated.

Edited by mindspawn, : No reason given.

Edited by mindspawn, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 42 by RAZD, posted 11-22-2013 9:17 AM RAZD has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 53 by RAZD, posted 11-26-2013 7:24 PM mindspawn has responded
 Message 54 by RAZD, posted 11-26-2013 7:37 PM mindspawn has responded
 Message 55 by RAZD, posted 11-26-2013 7:45 PM mindspawn has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 18658
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 50 of 119 (712040)
11-26-2013 8:53 AM
Reply to: Message 47 by mindspawn
11-26-2013 3:16 AM


Re: Some annual rainfall weather information for your consideration
Just for the record, I don't believe in any vast conspiracy. We will be dealing with the consilience continually in our other discussions , I just felt it necessary to state my position on the alleged conspiracy for the record. I believe the "cherry picking" isn't true cherry picking because its unintentional.

In other words:

  1. all dendrochronologists are bumbling idiots too naive, ignorant and incompetent to notice something you only believe has happened, and

  2. still no evidence of your mysterious magic 11-12 extra layers every year.

Just making spurious claims is not an argument, denial of evidence is not an argument ...

... these are symptoms in keeping with cognitive dissonance theory

quote:
Belief disconfirmation paradigm

Dissonance is aroused when people are confronted with information that is inconsistent with their beliefs. If the dissonance is not reduced by changing one's belief, the dissonance can result in restoring consonance through misperception, rejection or refutation of the information, seeking support from others who share the beliefs, and attempting to persuade others.[7]


ie - your way of telling yourself that the evidence can safely be ignored rather than faced.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : No reason given.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 47 by mindspawn, posted 11-26-2013 3:16 AM mindspawn has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 18658
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 51 of 119 (712043)
11-26-2013 9:51 AM
Reply to: Message 48 by mindspawn
11-26-2013 4:42 AM


Re: Dendrochronology Basics
Thanks for the educational post. It didn't cover our points of dispute though and so I quoted only the relevant sections. I feel you still have not faced the fact that the Bristlecone Pines are in a unique situation, lacking any gradual transitions between favorable and unfavorable conditions. The conditions are always unfavorable, that is why there is a growth ring for every significant precipitation event. Multiple rings have been proven in experiments.

And yet, curiously, the part you quoted tells you and shows you the difference between stress rings and end-of-year rings:

quote:
... The key to distinguishing between double or false rings and annual rings lies in the nature of the transition between the latewood and earlywood cells: in a false or double ring the transition is gradual due to the phasing in and out of favorable growing conditions (Fig. 3).

In an annual tree ring, the transition from one ring’s latewood to the next ring’s earlywood is abrupt because ring production actually stopped for some period of time, typically during winter. ...


Look at the rings just to the right of the false band and the ones just to the right of the winter band - are they remotely the same?

I am still waiting to for your explanation why there would not be a thin growth ring during a significant summer rainfall that occurs between two dry spells in the dry White Mountain region. I see no other possibility, and have already dealt with your "snow melt in spring" argument.

Because trees have reserves that they can use between rainfalls, but this doesn't happen in the winter because they are frozen.

Regarding your figure 1, I definitely agree that overlaps as shown in the diagram would make a strong case, provided those are proven annual layers and the annual layers remained annual throughout the chronology. ...

Which is definitely the case with the twos oak chronologies that somehow still match the Bristlecone pine chronology with only 0.5% error after 7600 years.

... My problem with crossdating is that the overlaps in reality may not be as clear as shown in the diagram. A sequence of four or five rings even if differing in dates would naturally overlap over time merely through statistical probability. We need a long matching sequence as shown in the diagram to eliminate the strong statistical probability of short sequences showing matching patterns.

Which is easily demonstrated with the Bristlecone pines -- living trees with ~5,000 years of rings matched with standing dead trees with ~7,000 years of rings ... unless you think they have stood for thousands of years, would have thousands of years of rings to match.

Also notice that the overlap shown in Fig 1 has consilient rings between all three pieces so the overlaps are normally much more than "four or five rings" -- again you must think the dendrochronologists are incompetent, naive and ignorant ... but that doesn't matter -- you are not explaining the consilience between the three chronologies with ad hoc nit-picking that IF TRUE would mean the matches between the chronologies could not logically have occurred.

This inability of any single species to successfully cross-date with Bristlecone Pines is not a strong argument for cross-dating Bristlecone Pines. ...

What inability???????????? Did you not understand? That is a symptom in keeping with cognitive dissonance theory

quote:
... the dissonance can result in restoring consonance through misperception, rejection or refutation of the information, ...

The Bristlecone pines have not only been cross-checked between their two species living in separate isolated communities, but with the Foxtail pine and with the Ponderosa pine chronology.

A premature conclusion considering that you have not yet shown how a tree in a truly dry area would not respond with growth to each significant summer rainfall between completely arid dry spells in soil that retains no moisture (White Mountains).

Except (a) I have shown the difference between a stress band and a winter band, and (b) the consilience with the other chronologies gives high confidence in the Bristlecone pine chronology.

More on this in the next post

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : ...

Edited by RAZD, : ..

Edited by RAZD, : cog/dis


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by mindspawn, posted 11-26-2013 4:42 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 57 by mindspawn, posted 11-27-2013 4:09 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 18658
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 52 of 119 (712046)
11-26-2013 10:16 AM
Reply to: Message 48 by mindspawn
11-26-2013 4:42 AM


Bristlecone Pines
A premature conclusion considering that you have not yet shown how a tree in a truly dry area would not respond with growth to each significant summer rainfall between completely arid dry spells in soil that retains no moisture (White Mountains).

Curiously, I have addressed this fantasy before. Let's look at the facts about Bristlecone pines in a little more detail (I've updated this for the latest information on climate so this basically summarizes my argument on Bristlecone pines):

Bristlecone Pines

As we saw in Message 41, Dendrochronology Basics, the oldest known non-clonal trees are all Bristlecone Pines:

  • the "Methuselah" tree, with an estimated germination date of 2832 BCE (wiki)
  • the "Prometheus" tree (aka WPN-114), with a measured age of 4862 when cut down in 1964 for research, however this is a minimum age due to the core of the tree is missing, giving it a minimum germination date of 2898 BCE (but likely older). (wiki)
  • the "Schulman" tree (my name for the tree because Schulman took the core and he was a pioneer in dendrochronology in the area), with an estimated germination date of 3051 BCE (wiki)
  • the "Ancient Sentinels" - standing dead trees, as old as 7,000 years, no information on their germination dates at this point (article)

At this point we don't know from the information available when the ~7,000 year old dead trees died -- it could have been last year, 10 years ago, maybe 100 years ago, or more. What we do know is that the methodology of dendrochronology can be used to combine it, and other old wood (some dead wood is lying on the ground in these same areas), and specimens from other sites into a complete chronology spanning thousands of years. We also know that such a chronology has been made, and it was updated in 1985:

Dendrochronology of Bristlecone Pine(1)

quote:
Field work led to the collection of 130 ·specimens. About 76% of these were small cross-sections taken in hopes of chronology extension. One series collected in 1981 that is about 500 years in length is over 10,000 radiocarbon years old (H. N. Michael, personal communication, 1982). It is one of three different series that date in the 2000 or so calendar years that lie just beyond the continuous chronology that reaches 6700 B.C. The remaining 24% of the collections were used to strengthen various intervals of the master chronology where specimen numbers were limited.

There has been no extension to the chronology beyond 6700 B.C. However, the collection and dating of many new specimens in the past nearly four years has not provided even a single-year change. Contrary-wise, each newly dated specimen has served to verify and strengthen the master chronology.


The dendrochronology extends back to 6,700 BCE, but there are older samples floating off the end of the continuous absolute chronology.

The Bristlecone Pine chronology does not rely on just one species, but uses two closely related species for a cross-reference:

The primary source is the Great Basin Bristlecone Pine: Pinus longaeva(2)

quote:
Great Basin bristlecone pine occurs in a relatively narrow latitudinal range in California, Nevada, and Utah [86,94]. In California it occurs on the summits of the Panamint, Inyo, and White mountains of Mono and Inyo counties [53]. In Nevada it has scattered occurrences on high mountain ranges from the White Mountains in Esmeralda County; north to the southern Ruby Mountains of south-central Elko County; south to the Spring Mountains of west-central Clark County; and east to the Ruby Mountains and Snake Range of White Pine County [31,63,94]. In western Utah Great Basin bristlecone pine occurs on the western edge of the Colorado Plateau from the Confusion Range of Millard County; north to the Uinta Mountains of Summit, Wasatch, and Duchesne counties; south to the Pine Valley Mountains of Washington County and northern Kane County; and east to the Wasatch Plateau of Emery County [94,136]. The U.S. Geological Survey provides a distributional map of Great Basin bristlecone and Rocky Mountain pines.

Great Basin bristlecone pine Pinaceae Pinus longaeva ID Fact Sheet(3)

quote:
Leaf: Evergreen needles, short (1 to 1 1/2 inches long), curved, fascicles of 5, dark green but usually covered with white dots of dried resin. Remain on tree for 10-17 years, giving a bushy appearance that resembles a fox's tail.

All the oldest Bristlecone pines are Great Basin bristlecone pines, Pinus longaeva.

The secondary source is the Rocky Mountain Bristlecone Pine: Pinus aristata(4)

quote:
Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine, Great Basin bristlecone pine (P. longaeva), and foxtail pine (P. balfouriana) share a common ancestor [117,152]. Taxa within the bristlecone-foxtail pine complex (Pinus, subgenus Strobus, section Parrya Mayr, subsection Balfourianae Englm.) are distinguished by growth form, bark, and differences in chemical composition [8,32,93,100]. Bristlecone and foxtail pines readily produce fertile hybrids in the laboratory [131,152]. Disjunct distributions, and possibly other factors, prevent natural hybridization among the 3 species.

The ranges of Great Basin and Rocky Mountain bristlecone pines do not overlap. The Colorado-Green River drainage has separated the 2 bristlecone pine species for millennia, and there is a 160-mile (260-km) gap between the 2 bristlecone species at their closest point in Utah and Colorado [57,101].The U.S. Geological Survey provides distributional maps of Rocky Mountain bristlecone and Great Basin bristlecone pines.

Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine occurs in upper montane and subalpine communities [146]. Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis) associate with Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine throughout most of Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine's range. Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine tends to exclude Engelmann spruce and limber pine on upper subalpine and timberline sites. Even in lower subalpine sites, Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine is more common in mesic areas than limber pine [104]. Brunstein [22] noted limber pine was absent from Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine communities on the east slope of the Park Range of Colorado. Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) may co-occur throughout Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine's range on seral sites including burns. Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) also occurs on new burns and other disturbed sites in Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine communities [70,104].

The ranges of Great Basin bristlecone, Rocky Mountain bristlecone, and foxtail pines do not overlap. The Colorado-Green River drainage has separated the 2 bristlecone pine species for millennia.


Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine Pinaceae Pinus aristata ID Fact Sheet(5)

quote:
Leaf: Evergreen needles, short (1 to 1 1/2 inches long), curved, fascicles of 5, dark green but usually covered with white dots of dried resin. Remain on tree for 10-17 years, giving a bushy appearance that resembles a fox's tail.

The climate and ecology of the Bristlecone pine is high, dry and cool, with minimal precipitation, most occuring as snow, which occurs even in July. The trees have adapted to the environment by taking advantage of the resources available.

Substrate-oriented distribution of Bristlecone pine in the White Mountains of California(6)

quote:
Superficial inspection of the White Mt. stands of bristlecone pine reveals that their development is greatly affected by geological substrate (Fig. 2). Of the several rock types exposed in the subalpine elevational belt, only one, a dolomitic limestone, supports well-­developed forests of bristlecone pine. The other substrates, principally a quartz1tic sandstone and a granite, have, by comparison, poorly developed forests, and are often vegetated by a high-altitude sage­ brush community.

The White Mountains are a small but high desert range parallel to and east of the Sierra Nevada, and separated from them by the north end of the Owens Valley ... This area includes mainly elevations from 9,500 to 11,500 ft, where all slope directions and varied geologic substrates are represented.

Three groups of geologic substrates are extensively exposed in the study area. Firstly, there are sandstones ... our study was restricted to those of the Campito Formation which are primarily quartzitic. Secondly, there are granitic rocks ... generally medium gray in color. The third substrate type is a dolomite belonging to the Precambrian Reed Dolomite formation (Nelson, 1962). This dolomite is massive, medium-grained, and light gray to white.

... The degree of surface rock cover was estimated at 20 widely separated sites on each of the three substrates, and the following semi-quantitative averages obtained: dolomite, 77%; sandstone, 84%; granite, 27%.

... All samples were collected at 11,000 ft elevation, and the figures presented are averages of analyses of soils from both north and south slopes; there is no appreciable difference between soils from north slopes and those from south slopes. Mechanical analysis of the soils was by the hydrometer method (Bouyoucos, 1936) and soil moisture tension values were determined by the method of Richards (1949). Available moisture was calculated from the difference between the values at 1/3 atm and 15 atm tension. Cation exchange capacity was determined using modifications of methods of Mehlich (1948) and Bower et al. (1952).

... The three geologic substrates differ in reflectance characteristics. Dolomite, being light gray or white, reflects a greater percentage of incoming solar radiation than do the dark sandstone and granite. A high proportion of the soil surface is covered by rock fragments, and this tends to impart the reflective characteristics of the parent rock to the soil. ... Average weekly maxima ‘were 2 to 5 C, and average weekly minima 1.5 to 3.0 C, higher on sandstone. The temperature differences persisted at considerable depths.
This difference in soil temperature between substrates is paralleled by a soil moisture difference. Soil moisture content was determined weekly by gravimetric methods at the same two adjacent stations during late summer of 1962. During this period little rain fell. The course of soil moisture at a 20 cm depth in the two soils is plotted in Figure 4. The data show that the dolomite soil remained consistently wetter than the sandstone soil, even though the two sampling sites were under the same climatic regime. ...

... To determine the effects of reduced soil moisture on the metabolism of bristlecone pine plants, measurements of the rates of photosynthesis and respiration were made in the laboratory as the soil dried out.

Three plants about 15 cm high and 20 to 40 years old were dug from the field in the summer of 1961, established in plastic pots of dolomite soil, ... September of 1962. By this time, new roots had penetrated the soil mass to the sides and bottoms of the pots. Repeated measurements of apparent photosynthesis and respiration were made on these plants in late fall of 1962 as the soil dried.

... Results of these measurements are shown in Figure 7. Photosynthesis was severely depressed at a soil moisture level between 8 and 6%. Since respiration continued without such severe depression, production of photosynthate was curtailed more severely than its consumption. By referring back to Figure 4 it can be seen that at the field site where soil moisture was measured, moisture levels on dolon1ite were below the wilting coefficient on only two dates, ... It seems then that small site differences in soil moisture could cause large differences in productivity in bristlecone pine, and that such small moisture differences do exist between dolomite and sandstone soils in the field.

... Table 2 shows mean climatic values for a ten-year period (1953-1962) at White Mt. 1 (Crooked Creek Laboratory), a cooperative US Weather Bureau station at 10,150 f t in the bristlecone pine zone (Pace, 1963). Annual precipitation has averaged only 12.54 inches for this period of record. Monthly snowfall and rainfall figures reveal the sharp segregation of precipitation in to winter snow and summer snow and rain. Winter snow comprises the bulk of the precipitation total. ...

Mean monthly temperatures are above 50 F only in July and August, showing the effect of high altitude in restricting summer warming. Winter temperatures are not excessively cold; the record low is -21 F. ...

... the open nature of the bristlecone pine “forest,” actually a woodland by many standards.

TABLE 2.-Climatic summary for Crooked Creek Laboratory, 1953-1962 (Pace, 1963)
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotals(*)
Ave Snowfallin14.521.512.614.816.82.80.70.01.66.69.611.4103.5
Ave Snow H2Oin1.362.001.091.211.480.220.070.00.150.530.930.9810.02
Ave Rainfallin0.00.00.00.00.130.01.350.630.350.060.00.02.52
Ave H2O precip.in1.362.001.091.211.600.221.420.630.500.600.930.9812.54

... Climate is that of a desert mountain range, very dry for forest vegetation, but also cool.


(*) - Note that I added a column for annual totals.

Note the only month without snow is August, and the highest rainfall is in July. July would also be when the snow melts, so it would be the wettest month of the year for growing, and August would be the driest.

By combining actual measurements of soil moisture, with respiration and photosynthesis into one graph (taking respiration and photosynthesis values from Fig 7 for the moisture levels shown in Fig 4) the graph below demonstrates how the dolomite storage of water would enable the Bristlecone pine to grow through this high elevation short growing season, from late spring snow melt in July to early fall snowfall in September and short summer (August):

This shows 5 weeks at the center of the growing season and that the growth continues for the whole period. This would apply to a theoretical sapling with root penetration to 20 cm. Older trees have deeper roots and would be able to access more water from greater depths.

The Bristlecone Pine chronology can be (and has been) cross-checked with Ponderosa Pine and Foxtail Pine chronologies for accuracy, but this doesn't necessarily demonstrate the accuracy and precision of dendrochronology.

How else can the accuracy and precision of this dendrochronology be checked? By cross-dating it with known historical data:

What Causes the Jet Stream to Change its Course?(7)

quote:
The correlation of volcanic eruptions and climate has been made relatively recently although the consequences of such eruptions have been recorded, albeit unwittingly, throughout history. For example, Roman poets tell us of the eruption of Mt. Etna in Sicily in 42 BC and at the same time an historian in China writes of a "veiled and indistinct" sun and crop failures. ...

2,040-year-old tree's rings read like global history(8)

quote:
Late-summer storms hurl hail against the granite slope.

The dawn air freezes all but six weeks of the year. There is no sign of soil.

But on this lonely ridge, the oldest known tree in Colorado's Pikes Peak region, a Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine, has been growing for 2,040 years.

The annual rings laid down in the stout trunk, however, are much more widely known. Decades ago, a local boy drilled a core sample no wider than a chopstick from the tree's trunk to reveal the rings.

Since then, scores of scientists have scrutinized the tiny dowel for insight into everything from ancient explosions and Aztec curses to global climate change.

In the 1950s, a group of scientists discovered a grove of bristlecones in California that was almost 5,000 years old, and, by overlapping cores from living and dead trees in the area, gradually built a tree-ring chronology dating back almost 9,000 years.

LaMarche took several cores back to the lab, where he noticed an odd pattern.

Under the microscope, the compact corduroy of rings revealed the normal alternating pattern of light bands of cells made each summer during the growing season and dark bands made at the end of the year as moisture drained from the living tissue in preparation for winter.

But the cores also showed dark bands where the cells were smashed and broken like a highway pileup. These were frost rings -- scars left from years when the freezing weather came too soon and ice formed in the cells, shredding the thin walls.

An occasional frost ring isn't unusual, but the cores from near Pikes Peak held almost 200, ...

In 42 B.C., when the tree was just a sapling, Sicily's Mount Etna exploded, spewing sulfurous gas into the sky.

The sun grew pale for months, crops withered in Europe. ... There is a frost ring that year.

In 1815, Tambora volcano in Indonesia detonated in the largest eruption in recorded history, filling the air with dust that cooled the whole Earth. Farmers in New England called it "the year without a summer." ... There is a frost ring that year.

The old trees form so many frost rings, Brunstein said, because they live at about 11,400 feet -- the tree line, where the slightest temperature dip can form ice in the cells.


Extreme Weather Events of 535–536(9)

quote:
The extreme weather events of 535–536 were the most severe and protracted short-term episodes of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2,000 years.[1] The event is thought to have been caused by an extensive atmospheric dust veil, possibly resulting from a large volcanic eruption in the tropics,[2] or debris from space impacting the Earth.[3] Its effects were widespread, causing unseasonal weather, crop failures, and famines worldwide.[3]

Documentary evidence

The Byzantine historian Procopius recorded of 536, in his report on the wars with the Vandals, "during this year a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness...and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear."[4][5]

The Gaelic Irish Annals[6][7][8] record the following:

  • "A failure of bread in the year 536 AD" - the Annals of Ulster
  • "A failure of bread from the years 536–539 AD" - the Annals of Inisfallen

Scientific evidence

Tree ring analysis by dendrochronologist Mike Baillie, of the Queen's University of Belfast, shows abnormally little growth in Irish oak in 536 and another sharp drop in 542, after a partial recovery.[12] Similar patterns are recorded in tree rings from Sweden and Finland, in California's Sierra Nevada and in rings from Chilean Fitzroya trees.[citation needed] Ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show evidence of substantial sulfate deposits around 533–534 ± 2 years, evidence of an extensive acidic dust veil.[2]


Volcanoes, ice-cores and tree-rings: one story or two?(10)

quote:
... In 1984 LaMarche and Hirschboeck suggested that frost rings in bristlecone pines were sometimes due to climatic upset caused by explosive volcanism. In 2007 Salzer and Hughes published a full list of frost damage years in bristlecone pines. These frost dates fit extremely well with extreme narrow growth in Grudd’s temperature sensitive northern Swedish chronology, Table 1 (d & e). Thus we are seeing replicated extreme environmental effects in trees in both the Old and New Worlds in 522, 536, 541-2 and 574-5. ...

Recent unprecedented tree-ring growth in bristlecone pine at the highest elevations and possible causes(11)

quote:
The Role of Temperature.

Korner (34) hypothesized that the upper treeline is created by the temperature limitation of trees' ability to form new tissue (sink inhibition) rather than by a shortage of photosynthate (source limitation). This global model of treeline suggests a narrow range of growing-season temperatures of treelines at different elevations around the globe and supports a common minimum temperature limit of tree growth (35). Recent direct observations of xylogenesis (wood formation) coupled with soil, air, and stem temperatures provide strong corroboration for temperature-limited growth in alpine and boreal conifers (36). The reported critical value of mean daily temperature for the onset of wood formation is 8 to 9 °C, a value that usually is not reached until mid to late June at treeline in the White Mountains. Maximum mean daily temperatures at SHP (11 °C) commonly are not reached until late July and are only slightly greater than the minimum reported for wood formation. ... Above the transition elevation (≈3,320 m to 3,470 m in the White Mountains), ring width is strongly positively associated with temperature and also is weakly positively associated with precipitation. Below the transition elevation, ring width is strongly negatively associated with temperature and also is strongly positively associated with precipitation.


Because the Bristlecone pines grow at such high elevations they have very short periods of growth when the temperature is only slightly higher than required for growth. It is entirely feasible that some years would not get warm enough to allow growth and this would result in missing rings that would make the chronology too young.

Thus there is 100% accuracy and precision of the Bristlecone Pine dendrochronology at 42 BCE, 536 CE and 1816 CE, correlating with actual historical events, as a start. This provides high confidence in the accuracy and precision of this chronology in specific and dendrochronology in general.

The earth is at least 8,713 years old (2013)

The minimum age for the earth is now at least 8,713 years old (2013), based on the accurate and precise Bristlecone Pine dendrochronology. This also means that there was no major catastrophic event that would have disturbed their growing on top of these mountains or dispersed any dead wood lying on the ground -- no world wide flood occurred in this time.

This is already older than many YEC models (6,000 years for those using Archbishop Usher's assumption filled calculations of a starting date of 4004 BCE).

And this is only the start of annual counting methods.

Enjoy.



References
  1. Ferguson, C.W., Graybill, D.A., Dendrochronology of Bristlecone Pine, Report, May 1985, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, http://ltrr.arizona.edu/...0of%20Bristlecone%20Pine_1985.pdf
  2. Fryer, Janet L. 2004. Pinus longaeva. In: Fire Effects Information System, [Online]. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Sciences Laboratory (Producer). Available: http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/ [2013, November 24]: http://www.fs.fed.us/...ase/feis/plants/tree/pinlon/all.html
  3. Seiler, J., Jensen, E., Niemiera, A., Peterson, J., Great Basin bristlecone pine Pinaceae Pinus longaeva D.K. Bailey ID Fact Sheet, (c) 2012, Virginia Tech Dept of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation. [2013, November 24]: http://dendro.cnre.vt.edu/dendrology/syllabus/factsheet.cfm
  4. Fryer, Janet L. 2004. Pinus aristata. In: Fire Effects Information System, [Online]. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Sciences Laboratory (Producer). Available: www.fs.fed.us/database/feis [ 2013, November 24]: http://www.fs.fed.us/...ase/feis/plants/tree/pinari/all.html
  5. Seiler, J., Jensen, E., Niemiera, A., Peterson, J., Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine Pinaceae Pinus aristata Engelm ID Fact Sheet, (c) 2012, Virginia Tech Dept of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation. [2013, November 24]: http://dendro.cnre.vt.edu/dendrology/syllabus/factsheet.cfm
  6. Wright, R. D., and H. A. Mooney, Substrate-oriented distribution of Bristlecone pine in the White Mountains of California, Amer. Midland Naturalist, vol 73 Nr 2, p 257-284, 1965 http://www.jstor.org/stable/2423454
  7. Patterns in Time web blog, What Causes the Jet Stream to Change its Course? 12 Jul 2011, [2013, November 24]: http://itsagriculture.blogspot.com/...eam-to-change-its.html
  8. Phillips, D., 2,040-year-old tree's rings read like global history
    http://www.contracostatimes.com/...cctimes/news/15591268.htm
  9. Wikipedia, Extreme weather events of 535–536, [2013, November 24]: http://en.wikipedia.org/...weather_events_of_535%E2%80%93536
  10. Baillie, M. G. L., Volcanoes, ice-cores and tree-rings: one story or two? Aniquity v84 2010: p 202–215 http://www.thefreelibrary.com/...story+or+two%3f-a0222486009
  11. Salzer, M.W., Hughes, M.K., Bunn, A.G., Kipfmueller, K.F., Recent unprecedented tree-ring growth in bristlecone pine at the highest elevations and possible causes, Biological Sciences - Environmental Sciences, PNAS 2009 106 (48) 20348-20353; published ahead of print November 16, 2009, doi:10.1073/pnas.0903029106 http://www.pnas.org/content/106/48/20348.full

Edited by RAZD, : subtitle

Edited by RAZD, : sp

Edited by RAZD, : changed ref 1 to more accurate article
chronology extends to 6700 BCE

Edited by RAZD, : not answered yet, so I updated it with new information


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 48 by mindspawn, posted 11-26-2013 4:42 AM mindspawn has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 18658
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 53 of 119 (712073)
11-26-2013 7:24 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by mindspawn
11-26-2013 5:35 AM


Re: Some annual rainfall weather information for your consideration
My problem with the Irish and German chronologies is that they only seem to match the Bristlecone Pine chronologies in ancient times. Even trees in close proximity to the White Mountain bristlecone pines do not show consistent chronology matches in recent times. ...

An assertion contradicted by facts. Perhaps you could provide a link to show this lack of consistency rather than just assert it.

Or did you misinterpret the information I provided in Message 41?

... MY conclusion from the soil/weather of the White Mountains is that the nature of wood growth absolutely requires multiple rings there, ...

But that's not a conclusion it is an a priori assumption based on fantasy, working backwards from belief, and unsupported by evidence.

And I have shown this to be a false assertion, most recently in Message 51. You are wrong about the soil and wrong about the weather, and your magical mysterious 11-12 stress rings (a) would be identified by an average dendrochronologist and (b) would have to be on the order of 1/2" of rain in weekly installments -- hardly stressful conditions for any tree, and certainly not stressful for the hardy Bristlecone pines that have evolved to handle the extreme ecology they inhabit, including the ability to store and use water over extended periods. The more extreme inhabitants grow on dolomite because it provides another storehouse of water.

... , and their match with Europe's trees during the Middle/Early holocene indicates that in fact Irish and German chronologies ALSO had multiple rings during the Middle/Early Holocene. ...

Except that this doesn't show why the pattern is exactly, precisely, and accurately the same ... with only 0.5% error over thousands of years.

This is just you making stuff up to try to resolve the dissonance caused by this information.

... Thus early and Middle Holocene dates are out by thousands of years due to the dry weather and intermittent summer rainfalls of the early/middle Holocene causing multiple tree ring growth.

Again, that's not a conclusion it is an a priori assumption based on fantasy, working backwards from belief, and unsupported by evidence.

The following link is to indicate early holocene dry weather and reduced summer rainfall patterns which match the current weather conditions of the BCP trees in the White Mountains:

Can you show this match graphically? or is it just another completely non-evidenced assertion?

http://hol.sagepub.com/content/16/2/153.abstract
"We show (i) that winters were drier and summers shorter and cooler in western Europe during colder periods in Greenland, (ii) in contrast to the present-day climate in the Holzmaar region, summer rains were clearly reduced during the early Holocene, and (iii) the climate not only changed rapidly (< 5 years) but recurring drier events were common during the studied period."

Reduced and drier do not mean drought ...

And as I have said before, that is not really news (Message 28):

The 12,460-year Hohenheim oak and pine tree-ring chronology from central Europe—a unique annual record for radiocarbon calibration and paleoenvironment reconstructions. Radiocarbon 46, No 3, pages 1111–1122. here with the Full PDF Download Here

quote:
... With respect to the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition identified in the ring width of our pines at 11,590 BP, the absolute tree-ring chronology now covers the entire Holocene and 820 yr of the Younger Dryas.

... The individual ages of the subfossil oaks are surprisingly short. The mean age of all sampled oaks is only 176 yr, with a maximum age of 575 yr. Some 97% of all trees were younger than 300 yr (Figure 2). This fact is related to the regular occurrence of floods connected with extensive erosion, which often disturbed riparian forests. On the other hand, the good growing conditions on the flood-plains, especially after the mid-Holocene, allowed large annual growth increments resulting in huge, but young, trees with a stem diameter of more than 1 m. ...


The entire Holocene (modern era) is now covered by the German oak/pine chronology, including the climate information shown in the tree ring widths. The trees used grew in the flood plain near rivers, meaning you need to show that the rivers dried up for substantial durations and then cram that in to 11-12 mysterious magical growing events. You haven't even begun to show this.

A poor growing season means a narrow ring, not multiple rings. In addition if there were a significant stress event it would show up as a stress ring rather than a winter ring.

Message 51: ... the part you quoted tells you and shows you the difference between stress rings and end-of-year rings:

quote:
... The key to distinguishing between double or false rings and annual rings lies in the nature of the transition between the latewood and earlywood cells: in a false or double ring the transition is gradual due to the phasing in and out of favorable growing conditions (Fig. 3).

In an annual tree ring, the transition from one ring’s latewood to the next ring’s earlywood is abrupt because ring production actually stopped for some period of time, typically during winter. ...


Look at the rings just to the right of the false band and the ones just to the right of the winter band - are they remotely the same?

The difference is readily apparent to dendrochronologists, especially for deciduous trees like oaks. Not only is there a difference in cell size, but the walls are thinner in early growth than in later growth.

ie perfect conditions for multiple tree rings existed in Europe (dry cold climate with rare rainfall in the warmer growth season), dates are therefore over-estimated.

Again, that's not a conclusion it is an a priori assumption based on fantasy, working backwards from belief, and unsupported by evidence.

You are grasping at straws here. You need to show actual evidence of your mysterious magical events, not just presuppose them.

I'll let you respond to these and the next two post (one about Irish oaks and one about German oaks and pines) before posting anymore.

Meantime I have requested a copy of your Holocene climate paper so I can see what it says beyond the abstract.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : ...


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by mindspawn, posted 11-26-2013 5:35 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 58 by mindspawn, posted 11-27-2013 5:51 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 18658
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 54 of 119 (712076)
11-26-2013 7:37 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by mindspawn
11-26-2013 5:35 AM


Irish Oak
As we saw in Message 52, Bristlecone Pines, there are two other dendrochronologies of interest in measuring the age of the earth by counting annual layers: the Irish oak and the German oak (and pine) chronologies.

My recollection is that dendrochronology started with oak trees in Europe, by setting up a database of oak tree sections from archaeological sites and matching different sections that overlapped in time to build a complete lineage of tree ring dates.

Unlike the Bristlecone pines the Irish oak is not environmentally challenged:

Northern Ireland: climate(1)

quote:
The seasonal variation of rainfall in Northern Ireland is less marked in the drier southern and eastern areas than in the wetter areas, but in all areas the wettest months are between October and January. This is partly a reflection of the high frequency of winter Atlantic depressions and the relatively low frequency of summer thunderstorms in Northern Ireland. For example, at Armagh, thunder occurs on an average of less than 4 days a year, compared with 15 to 20 days at many places in England. Only in a few locations, mainly away from the coast, does the frequency of thunder exceed 5 days a year.

Aldergrove RainfallColerain University RainfallCorgary RainfallSpelga Dam Rainfall

Over much of Northern Ireland, the number of days with a rainfall total of 1mm or more ('wet days') tends to follow a pattern similar to the monthly rainfall totals. In the higher parts, over 55 days is the norm in winter (December to February) and over 45 days in summer (June to August). In the driest areas around Lough Neagh and eastwards to Strangford Lough, less than 45 days in winter and about 35 days in summer are typical.


Thus we can have high confidence that the tree rings are annual layers and not due to environmental factors.

The common name for this species is "Post Oak" due to its natural resistance to rot thus making a good material for posts in ancient constructions. This also means that there are a lot of samples that are referenced to and associated with archaeological finds, finds that can be dated by other means, including historical documents as far back as the history goes. Oaks are also considered one of the best species for dendrochronology.

Useful Tree Species for Tree-Ring Dating(2)

quote:
Oak is a highly preferred species to use in dendrochronology - in fact, the longest continuous tree-ring chronology anywhere in the world was developed in Europe and is currently about 10,000 year in length. This chronology is providing scientists new insights on climate over the past 10,000 years, especially at the end of the last Glacial Maximum.

Because ring-porous species almost always begin annual growth with this initial flush, missing rings are rare in such species as oak and elm. In fact, the only recorded instance of a missing ring in oak trees occurred in the year 1816, also known as the Year Without a Summer. A volcanic eruption in the year 1815 caused much cooler temperatures globally, thus causing oak trees to remain dormant. Therefore, no clear annual ring was formed in 1816 for certain locations in Europe.

... The earlywood is marked by large vessels used in conducting water. Latewood appears darker, marked by smaller vessels. Occasionally, offsets in oak tree rings can be problematic when trying to crossdate the rings. Dendrochronologists therefore must be careful when working with oak species, as these rays can cause a misdate of one year.


Note that sources of error are identified and accounted for. Crossdating is one method to check for errors. Another is to build two independent chronologies from the same species in two different locations. For an idea of the accuracy of the data and the amount of error involved we have this:

INTCAL04 Terrestrial Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 0-26 CAL KYR BP, PDF(3)

quote:
For inclusion in the calibration data set, dendrochronological dating and cross-checking of tree rings is required. ...

The Holocene part of the 14C calibration is based on several millennia-long tree-ring chronologies, providing an annual, absolute time frame within the possible error of the dendrochronology, which was rigorously tested by internal replication of many overlapping sections. Whenever possible, they were cross-checked with independently established chronologies of adjacent regions. The German and Irish oak chronologies were cross-dated until back into the 3rd millennium BC (Pilcher et al. 1984), ...

The Belfast Data Set

Recent 14C measurements of α-cellulose extracted from decadal sections of Belfast Irish oak over the past 1000 yr (Hogg et al. 2002) and for the period 1220–1460 BP (McCormac et al., this issue) have been included. Comparisons of these measurements with the 1986 and 1993 Irish oak data sets (Pearson et al. 1993; Pearson et al. 1986), as well as with Irish oak measurements made in Seattle, resulted in the acceptance of the original 1986 Irish oak data sets over the corrected 1993 data sets (Hogg et al. 2002). Decadal measurements from the 1986 data set have been included separately rather than averaged to bidecadal intervals, where possible. In cases where decadal measurements had been averaged with bidecadal measurements, the original bidecadal data could not be retrieved, so are included as published. In those cases, the decadal data are redundant and are not included. The pre-1993 oak measurements were made on samples processed to holocellulose (Pearson et al. 1986). German oak measurements are used as originally published (Pearson et al. 1993). A further 3 decadal samples of Irish oak from 3450–3470 cal BP were measured to check the earlier Irish oak bidecadal data where they differed considerably from the German oak. These samples were pretreated to α-cellulose at Queen’s University Belfast and measured at both Queen’s University Belfast and the Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

The Arizona Data Set

The relation between North American and European wood has been studied using bristlecone pine (BCP) and European oak (German oak and Irish oak), respectively. Discrepancies have become evident over the years, in particular when the German oak was corrected by a dendro-shift of 41 yr towards older ages (Kromer et al. 1996). Attempts were made to resolve the discrepancies by remeasuring BCP samples, measured earlier in Tucson (Linick et al. 1986). The University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research provided dendrochronologically-dated bristlecone pine samples to Heidelberg (wood from around 4700 and 7600 cal BP), Groningen (around 7500 cal BP), Pretoria (around 4900 cal BP), and Seattle (around 7600 cal BP). The replicate measurements have a mean offset of 37 +/- 6 14C yr (n = 21) from the Tucson measurements. Applying this shift to the Tucson data results in a close fit to the wiggles of the German oak, which would not occur if there were an error in the dendrochronology of either series. Because of this offset, the IntCal working group has decided not to include the BCP record in IntCal04.


The Bristlecone Pine is not included in the calibration data because it is 37 years younger than the two oak chronologies at 7600 BP (before 1950). This is an error of only 0.48% at 5650 BCE, which is very high accuracy.

High-precision 14C measurement of Irish oaks to show the natural 14C variations from AD 1840 to 5210 BC(4)

quote:
ABSTRACT. High-precision measurement of dendrochronologically dated Irish oak at bi-decade/decade intervals has continued in the Belfast laboratory, extending the 14C data base from ca AD 1840 to 5210 BC. The dendrochronology is now considered absolute (see Belfast dendrochronology this conference) (Brown et al, 1986) and a continuous detailed curve is presented, showing the natural variations in the atmospheric concentration of 14C over >7000 years. Each data point has a precision of <2.5 ‰, and some 4500 years have now been compared with Seattle, giving excellent agreement.

The ‰ symbol is parts per thousand, so this is <0.25% error in >7000 years for the Irish oak. This chronology extends back to 5210 BCE.

High-precision 14C measurement of German and Irish oaks to show the natural 14C variations from 7890 to 5000 BC.(5)

quote:
... Some 7000 yr of decadal and bidecadal measurements of Irish oak were presented graphically, and are used as a `Radiocarbon Time-Scale Calibration'. These curves are now extended by another 2680 yr, forming a complete sequence back to 7980 BC, giving almost 10,000 yr of high-precision time-scale calibration.

The chronology now extends back to 7980 BCE, or 9930 BP (before 1950), slightly longer than the Bristlecone Pine chronology. The significant point though, is not the extension of the annual layer count, but the consilience of the data from the two systems ... as noted in Message 3 they agree to within 37 years at 7600 BP, an error of only 0.48% at 5650 BCE, which is very high accuracy. This consiliency adds to our confidence in the accuracy and precision of the data.

As we saw in Message 52 there was evidence of volcanoes in the tree rings of both Bristlecone Pines and Irish oaks:

Extreme Weather Events of 535–536

quote:
The extreme weather events of 535–536 were the most severe and protracted short-term episodes of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2,000 years.[1] The event is thought to have been caused by an extensive atmospheric dust veil, possibly resulting from a large volcanic eruption in the tropics,[2] or debris from space impacting the Earth.[3] Its effects were widespread, causing unseasonal weather, crop failures, and famines worldwide.[3]

Tree ring analysis by dendrochronologist Mike Baillie, of the Queen's University of Belfast, shows abnormally little growth in Irish oak in 536 ...


So there is consilience between history and the Irish oak chronology: 100% accuracy and precision at 1816 CE and 536 CE, the same as the Bristlecone pine: three independent sources of information with the same values. This high consilience gives us high confidence in the accuracy and precision of the Irish oak chronology (and increases our confidence in the Bristlecone pine chronology).

Then there is Egyptian history and the dating of various finds:

Radiocarbon-Based Chronology for Dynastic Egypt(6)

quote:
... Radiocarbon dating, which is a two-stage process involving isotope measurements and then calibration against similar measurements made on dendrochronologically dated wood, usually gives age ranges of 100 to 200 years for this period (95% probability range) and has previously been too imprecise to resolve these questions.

Here, we combine several classes of data to overcome these limitations in precision: measurements on archaeological samples that accurately reflect past fluctuations in radiocarbon activity, specific information on radiocarbon activity in the region of the Nile Valley, direct linkages between the dated samples and the historical chronology, and relative dating information from the historical chronology. Together, these enable us to match the patterns present in the radiocarbon dates with the details of the radiocarbon calibration record and, thus, to synchronize the scientific and historical dating methods. ...

... We have 128 dates from the NK, 43 from the MK, and 17 from the Old Kingdom (OK). The majority (~75%) of the measurements have calibrated age ranges that overlap with the conventional historical chronology, within the wide error limits that result from the calibration of individual dates.

The modeling of the data provides a chronology that extends from ~2650 to ~1100 B.C.E. ...


This figure shows the distribution of uncalibrated radiocarbon dates against the modeled age. For each measurement, we show the mean and ±1σ of the radiocarbon and modeled calendar dates: ... The calibration curve is shown as two black lines (±1σ ). ...

The results for the OK, although lower in resolution, also agree with the consensus chronology of Shaw (18) but have the resolution to contradict some suggested interpretations of the evidence, such as the astronomical hypothesis of Spence (24), which is substantially later, or the reevaluation of this hypothesis (25), which leads to a date that is earlier. The absence of astronomical observations in the papyrological record for the OK means that this data set provides one of the few absolute references for the positioning of this important period of Egyptian history (Fig. 1A).


Note that there are several other sample dates with similar correlation of 14C measurement to dendrochronology correlations, here it is the earliest/oldest set that is of interest as a measure of accuracy and precision.

The earliest/oldest date in Fig 2 is ~2660 BCE with 7 samples and an average raw 14C 'age' of 4120 to 4130 BP (before 1950), which can then be compared against the 14C 'age' on the dendrochronology correlation to find the comparable dendrochronology calendar age. The dendrochronology correlation is shown as two lines in Fig 2

The Shaw date (red bar in Fig 1A) is ~2660 BCE based on historical documentation.

Converting the raw 14C 'age' of 4125 BP to dendrochronologial calendar age using the IntCal04(3) correlation curves (which uses the Irish oak dendrochronology) gives a date range of ~2700 BCE (minus 1&sigma line intersept) to ~2620 BCE (plus 1&sigma line intersept) for an average dendro age of ~2660+/-40 BCE. Note that +/-40 years in over 4,000 years is an error of +/-1%. The error is partly due to the two stage process of using 14C data to convert to dendrochronological calendar age.

Note that this conversion does not depend on the calculation of 14C 'age' -- that is a purely mathematical conversion of the measured amounts of 14C and 12C in the samples, and then comparing those 14C/12C values to ones found in the tree rings to find the best match to the tree rings, but it does introduce an error due to the band of rings that match those levels.

So we have another historical calibration date of 2660 BCE with 99% consilience between history and Irish oak chronology. This chronology extends back to 7980 BCE, to 9930 BP (before 1950), and now ~1/2 of its length is anchored by historical events\artifacts, and most of it's length, to 8650 BCE, is consilient with the Bristlecone pine chronology with 99.5% accuracy and precision. This results in very high confidence for the accuracy and precision of the chronology.

The earth is at least 9,993 years old (2013)

The minimum age for the earth is now at least 9,993 years old (2013), based on the highly accurate and precise Irish oak dendrochronology. This also means that there was no major catastrophic event that would have disturbed the growth of any of the overlapping trees -- no world wide flood occurred in this time.

This is already significantly older than many YEC models (6,000 years for those using Archbishop Usher's assumption filled calculations of a starting date of 4004 BC).

And this is still only the start of annual counting methods.

Enjoy.



References
  1. Met Office, Northern Ireland: climate, (c) Crown copyright, www.metoffice.gov.uk [2013, November 24]: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ni/print.html
  2. Martinez, L., Useful Tree Species for Tree-Ring Dating, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona updated Oct. 2001 [2013, November 24]: http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/lorim/good.html
  3. Reimer, P. J., Baillie, M.G.L., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J. W., Bertrand, C. J. H., Blackwell, P. G., Buck, C. E., Burr, G. S., Cutler, K. B., Damon, P. E., Edwards, R. L., Fairbanks, R. G., Friedrich, M., Guilderson, T. P., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., McCormac, G., Manning, S., Ramsey, C. B., Reimer, R. W., Remmele, S., Southon, J. R., Stuiver, M., INTCAL04 Terrestrial Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 0-26 CAL KYR BP, Radiocarbon, Vol 46, Nr 3, 2004, p 1029–1058 https://digitalcommons.library.arizona.edu/objectviewer?o...
  4. Pearson GW, Pilcher JR, Baillie MGL, Corbett DM, Qua F. 1986. High-precision 14C measurement of Irish oaks to show the natural 14C variations from AD 1840 to 5210 BC. Radiocarbon 28(2B):911–34. https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/...icle/download/1004/1009
  5. Pearson GW, Becker B, Qua F. 1993. High-precision 14C measurement of German and Irish oaks to show the natural 14C variations from 7890 to 5000 BC. Radiocarbon 35(1):93–104. https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/...icle/download/1555/1559

Edited by Admin, : Narrow image slightly.

Edited by Admin, : Narrow image slightly again.

Edited by RAZD, : No reason given.

Edited by RAZD, : added egypt


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by mindspawn, posted 11-26-2013 5:35 AM mindspawn has responded

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 Message 59 by mindspawn, posted 11-27-2013 7:09 AM RAZD has responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 18658
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.8


Message 55 of 119 (712077)
11-26-2013 7:45 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by mindspawn
11-26-2013 5:35 AM


German Oak and Pine

German Oak and Pine

As we saw in Message 52, Bristlecone Pines, there are two other dendrochronologies of interest in measuring the age of the earth by counting annual layers: the Irish oak, covered in Message 54, and the German oak (and pine) chronologies.

Also unlike the Bristlecone pines the German oak and pine is not environmentally challenged:

Germany Climate Statistics(1)

Berlin, GermanyMunich, GermanyPotsdam, GermanySchleswig, Germany

These rainfall records are different from each other, and they are different from the Irish records ( Message 54). They also show sufficient rainfall in any one month that the trees would not be water limited in their growth. The months of highest rain are in the summer as opposed to Ireland when they were in the winter, so the correlation of the rings does not depend on weather events.Thus we can have high confidence that the tree rings are annual layers and not due to environmental factors.

INTCAL04 Terrestrial Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 0-26 CAL KYR BP, PDF(2)

quote:
The Holocene part of the 14C calibration is based on several millennia-long tree-ring chronologies, providing an annual, absolute time frame within the possible error of the dendrochronology, which was rigorously tested by internal replication of many overlapping sections. Whenever possible, they were cross-checked with independently established chronologies of adjacent regions. The German and Irish oak chronologies were cross-dated until back into the 3rd millennium BC (Pilcher et al. 1984), and the German oak chronologies from the Main River, built independently in the Gottingen and Hohenheim tree-ring laboratories, cross-date back to 9147 cal BP (Spurk et al. 1998).

Due to periodic narrow rings caused by cockchafer beetles, some German oak samples were excluded from IntCal98. Analysis of these tree rings, with an understanding of the response of trees to the cockchafer damage, allowed some of these measurements to be re-instated in the chronology (Friedrich et al., this issue).

The relation between North American and European wood has been studied using bristlecone pine (BCP) and European oak (German oak and Irish oak), respectively. Discrepancies have become evident over the years, in particular when the German oak was corrected by a dendro-shift of 41 yr towards older ages (Kromer et al. 1996). Attempts were made to resolve the discrepancies by remeasuring BCP samples, measured earlier in Tucson (Linick et al. 1986). The University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research provided dendrochronologically dated bristlecone pine samples to Heidelberg (wood from around 4700 and 7600 cal BP), Groningen (around 7500 cal BP), Pretoria (around 4900 cal BP), and Seattle (around 7600 cal BP). The replicate measurements have a mean offset of 37 +/- 6 14C yr (n = 21) from the Tucson measurements.

There was not a large difference in the calculated k values between early and recent measurements in the Belfast lab for the Irish oak samples when the previously applied laboratory error multiplier on the more recent data set is considered; however, the early measurements of German oak were more variable than those of Irish oak. The recent Heidelberg data sets had smaller k values than older measurements. The reason for the early variation is partly due to the fact that these samples were measured to help place a tree in the dendrochronology as it was being built instead of measured consecutively, and also because many of these samples contain only a few tree rings but are being compared to decadal samples.

Uncertainty in single-ring cal ages for dendrochronologically-dated wood is on the order of 1 yr for highly replicated and cross-checked chronologies and is therefore ignored in the analysis.


There are several things to note here. First, is that there are three (3) main chronologies: one of Bristlecone Pine and two of European Oak, one German and one Irish. Second, is that originally one oak chronology was "not good enough" to be included in the IntCal98 - because it was off by 41 years in ~8,000 years, an error of 0.51%. Third, is that when the oak chronology was corrected, it was not the odd one out, but the one that previously agreed with the Bristlecone Pine chronology. Fourth, the Bristlecone Pine chronology is now considered "not good enough" - because it is off by 37 years in 7,600 years, an error of 0.48%. Fifth, that where some German Oak samples had been placed by carbon-14 levels in the earlier chronology (used in IntCal98) these are now placed by additional tree samples that fill in the consecutive chronology (and the initial carbon-14 levels are not now used to place those samples). Finally, that the European Oak absolute chronology now extends back to 9,147 years BP with cross dating, and that including all three in one data set means that the error involved is on the order of 0.5% - over the whole period of time covered. The IntCal04 discussion doesn't give the breakdown on the actual ages of each chronology, but it refers to a paper that does.

The 12,460-year Hohenheim oak and pine tree-ring chronology from Central Europe - a unique annual record for radiocarbon calibration and paleoenvironment reconstructions(3)

quote:
The combined oak and pine tree-ring chronologies of Hohenheim University are the backbone of the Holocene radiocarbon calibration for central Europe. Here, we present the revised Holocene oak chronology (HOC) and the Preboreal pine chronology (PPC) with respect to revisions, critical links, and extensions. ...

We have indicated the revisions and extensions of the combined oak and pine tree-ring chronology for central Europe constructed at Hohenheim University. This chronology forms the backbone of the Holocene 14C calibration. The Holocene oak chronology (HOC) has been strengthened by new trees starting at 10,429 BP (8480 BC). Oaks affected by cockchafer predation have been identified and removed from the chronology. The formerly floating Preboreal pine chronology (PPC) has been cross-matched dendrochronologically to the absolutely dated oak chronology. In addition, the 2 parts of the PPC were linked dendrochronologically. Including the 8-yr shift of the oak-pine link, the older part of the PPC (pre-11,250 BP) needs to be shifted 70 yr to older ages with respect to the published data (Spurk et al. 1998). The southern German part of the PPC now covers 2103 yr from 11,993 to 9891 BP (10,044–7942 BC). Furthermore, the PPC was extended significantly by new pine chronologies from Avenches and Zürich, Switzerland, and by the pine chronology from the Younger Dryas forest at Cottbus, eastern Germany. The absolutely dated tree-ring chronology now starts at 12,410 cal BP (10,461 BC). Therefore, the tree-ring-based 14C calibration now reaches back into the mid-Younger Dryas. ...


The German oak chronology extends back to 10,429 BP (before 1950) or 8489 BCE. The Preboreal pine chronology has been absolutely linked to the oak chronology and extends back to 12,410 cal BP, or 10,461 BCE.

Note that "floating" chronologies are ones not tied to an absolutely known date as occurs with "absolute" chronologies. There are many other floating dendrochronologies, including some that extend further into the past, but they are not discussed here as they can't be tied by climate correlations to the existing absolute dendrochronologies.

Note further that carbon-14 measurements and age calculations are not discussed yet, as the focus is on the accuracy and precision of the tree ring chronologies. These chronologies have been tied to the historical record back to 42 BCE, and there are indications that other volcanic events are also recorded further in the past, with data that shows up in the ice core dating ... which will be discussing later.

The earth is at least 12,473 years old (2013)

The minimum age for the earth is now at least 12,473 years old (2013), based on the highly accurate and precise German oak and pine dendrochronology. This also means that there was no major catastrophic event that would have disturbed the growth of any of the overlapping trees -- no world wide flood occurred in this time.

This is significantly older than many YEC models (6,000 years for those using Archbishop Usher's assumption filled calculations of a starting date of 4004 BC).

And this is still only the start of annual counting methods.

Enjoy.



References
  1. El Dorado Weather, Germany Climate Statistics, (c) 2013 El Dorado Weather, Inc, http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/ [2013, November 25]: http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/...te-listings-a-z.html, http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/.../germany/Berlin.html, http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/.../germany/Munich.html, http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/...germany/Potsdam.html, and http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/...rmany/Schleswig.html
  2. Reimer, P. J., Baillie, M.G.L., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J. W., Bertrand, C. J. H., Blackwell, P. G., Buck, C. E., Burr, G. S., Cutler, K. B., Damon, P. E., Edwards, R. L., Fairbanks, R. G., Friedrich, M., Guilderson, T. P., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., McCormac, G., Manning, S., Ramsey, C. B., Reimer, R. W., Remmele, S., Southon, J. R., Stuiver, M., INTCAL04 Terrestrial Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 0-26 CAL KYR BP, Radiocarbon, Vol 46, Nr 3, 2004, p 1029–1058 https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/...icle/download/4167/3592
  3. Friedrich, Michael et al, The 12,460-Year Hohenheim Oak and Pine Tree-Ring Chronology from Central Europe - a Unique Annual Record for Radiocarbon Calibration and Paleoenvironment Reconstructions, Radiocarbon, Volume 46, Nr 3, 2004, p 1111-1122 https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/...icle/download/4172/3597

Edited by RAZD, : 42 not 44

Edited by RAZD, : sp

Edited by RAZD, : link


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by mindspawn, posted 11-26-2013 5:35 AM mindspawn has not yet responded

  
mindspawn
Member (Idle past 103 days)
Posts: 1015
Joined: 10-22-2012


Message 56 of 119 (712095)
11-27-2013 2:34 AM
Reply to: Message 46 by RAZD
11-25-2013 9:00 AM


Uranium and Thorium
AND compared them to previous determinations that were done in the lab -- as I documented. The new values have smaller errors but otherwise replicate the previous ones, and the consilience from using a different methodology to determine their values once again provides high confidence in their accuracy and precision.

Again, if you want to see the lab obtained independent values I suggest you do some reading. Starting here: Half-life of 230Th. It is on-line and tells how the half-life was measured independently in the lab.

Nice one, looking at your link I see they did use the specific activity method to determine the half life of Thorium 230, have you got any evidence for how the half-life of Uranium 234 was established?

Whether we look at Thorium 230, Uranium 234, Uranium 238 or carbon dating, we have the same problem that the magnetic field effect on radiocarbon and radioactive elements is largely unknown and has to be calibrated against an additional source of accurate dates. To check carbon dating against radioactive dating does not promote confidence when both forms of dating underwent the same proportionate increase in magnetic field strength a few thousand years ago, and both decay rates are affected by the magnetic field.

Conclusion: Ur-Th dating as with carbon dating underwent the same magnetic field effects to the decay rates in the past, therefore their consilience. However the dates are inaccurate because the magnetic field was a lot stronger back then.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 46 by RAZD, posted 11-25-2013 9:00 AM RAZD has responded

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 Message 60 by RAZD, posted 11-27-2013 9:05 AM mindspawn has responded

  
mindspawn
Member (Idle past 103 days)
Posts: 1015
Joined: 10-22-2012


Message 57 of 119 (712096)
11-27-2013 4:09 AM
Reply to: Message 51 by RAZD
11-26-2013 9:51 AM


Dendrochronology Basics
And yet, curiously, the part you quoted tells you and shows you the difference between stress rings and end-of-year rings:

your quote:
" The key to distinguishing between double or false rings and annual rings lies in the nature of the transition between the latewood and earlywood cells: in a false or double ring the transition is gradual due to the phasing in and out of favorable growing condition"

Yes I did say that I quoted the relevant parts, that is why I included that comment about stress rings. I then explained that bristlecone pines are continuously under temperature/moisture stress owing to the dryness of the soil. If you look at the weather and soil of the white Mountains there is no gradual "phasing in and out of favorable conditions". ie conditions do not favor stress rings, they favor multiple rings due to the complete dry-out between rain spells.

Look at the rings just to the right of the false band and the ones just to the right of the winter band - are they remotely the same?

Irrelevant because in the White Mountains the conditions do not favor stress rings due to the lack of "gradual phasing in and out of favorable growing conditions". Each summer rainfall followed by a dry spell of a few weeks favors a whole new growth ring, this is how wood actually grows.

Because trees have reserves that they can use between rainfalls, but this doesn't happen in the winter because they are frozen.

This has been your only good point so far regarding my claim of multiple rings. If you can prove that the reserves of these specific trees in especially dry areas cause continuous growth for many weeks without rainfall your point is made. Until then its more logical that after a few weeks of dry spell in one of the driest soils on earth, the tree would stop producing wood until the next summer rainfall.

From your post 50

all dendrochronologists are bumbling idiots too naive, ignorant and incompetent to notice something you only believe has happened

If dendrochronologists overlook an obvious fact that trees completely starved of moisture during their growth season do actually stop growing , then this is incompetent. In their defense though they wouldn't want their findings to contradict evolutionary timeframes and bring down the ridicule of the establishment, so its the establishment's fault that open-mindedness has been replaced by an almost religious fervour to support evolution and mock those who question it. This mocking attitude of the establishment is suppressing true science in much the same manner as some members of this board resort to swearing and ridicule instead of a pleasant exchange of ideas. Oh well.....

Which is easily demonstrated with the Bristlecone pines -- living trees with ~5,000 years of rings matched with standing dead trees with ~7,000 years of rings ... unless you think they have stood for thousands of years, would have thousands of years of rings to match.

Also notice that the overlap shown in Fig 1 has consilient rings between all three pieces so the overlaps are normally much more than "four or five rings" -- again you must think the dendrochronologists are incompetent, naive and ignorant ... but that doesn't matter -- you are not explaining the consilience between the three chronologies with ad hoc nit-picking that IF TRUE would mean the matches between the chronologies could not logically have occurred.

If the overlaps are easily demonstrated with Bristlecone pines, then please demonstrate it. Like I said before, if the actual cross-dating rings had as much overlap as the diagrammatic representation, that would be a convincing case. But even if you match barcodes of four categories (thin, thick, black, white) they would show a statistical tendency of a perfect match of 4 bars every 336 bars using a random starting point. So the length of matching sequence is essential to reduce the obvious statistical probability of an error in sequence matching.

What inability???????????? Did you not understand? That is a symptom in keeping with cognitive dissonance theory

not quite cognitive dissonance.
"Note that Foxtail pines (Pinus balfouriana) are closely related to Bristlecone pines ((Pinus longaeva), but the ranges of Great Basin bristlecone, Rocky Mountain bristlecone, and Foxtail pines do not overlap. The Colorado-Green River drainage has separated the 2 Bristlecone pine species for millennia. All three species are used to cross-check the Bristlecone Pine chronology."

Your quote appears to indicate that they cannot rely only on one species for the full chronology due to the fact that the ranges do not overlap. They use all 3 species for cross-checking. If I am incorrect in this interpretation then kindly show me your evidence that despite no overlap of ranges they were able to use any one of these species to cross-check the full Bristlecone Pine chronology.

Except (a) I have shown the difference between a stress band and a winter band, and (b) the consilience with the other chronologies gives high confidence in the Bristlecone pine chronology.

I have explained how stress bands are not applicable to the White Mountain BCP trees if we refer to your quotes on how stress bands are formed. Its possible that certain other species in similar areas would also undergo multiple rings, but not as consistently unless they exist in the same or nearby stands as those ancient BCP trees. This would explain the matching patterns when the BCP chronology is cross-checked with other species.

It would help your argument if you could show recent (eg 1816) cross-matching between these dry area regions and the European wetter region chronologies. This would help to prove your case that even the BCP trees have annual rings. Cross matching between BCP trees and European trees during the dry periods of the early or mid Holocene but not recently only serves to strengthen my point.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by RAZD, posted 11-26-2013 9:51 AM RAZD has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 61 by RAZD, posted 11-27-2013 10:16 AM mindspawn has responded

  
mindspawn
Member (Idle past 103 days)
Posts: 1015
Joined: 10-22-2012


Message 58 of 119 (712097)
11-27-2013 5:51 AM
Reply to: Message 53 by RAZD
11-26-2013 7:24 PM


Re: Some annual rainfall weather information for your consideration
An assertion contradicted by facts. Perhaps you could provide a link to show this lack of consistency rather than just assert it.

Or did you misinterpret the information I provided in Message 41?

Fair enough I cannot prove this lack of consistency. Are you able to prove that recent BCP tree ring sequences match with trees in areas known for wetter climates and soils (eg European tree ring chronologies). To prove this is essential for your whole argument.

In an earlier post you stated the following:
"Curiously, the fact remains that the Irish Oak and the German Oak and Pine chronologies are not in precipitation sensitive environments, they are indeed annual rings, and they agree with the Bristlecone Pine chronology for over 8,000 years with 99.5% agreement."

But in a later post you quote the following:
"The relation between North American and European wood has been studied using bristlecone pine (BCP) and European oak (German oak and Irish oak), respectively. Discrepancies have become evident over the years, in particular when the German oak was corrected by a dendro-shift of 41 yr towards older ages (Kromer et al. 1996). Attempts were made to resolve the discrepancies by remeasuring BCP samples, measured earlier in Tucson (Linick et al. 1986). The University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research provided dendrochronologically dated bristlecone pine samples to Heidelberg (wood from around 4700 and 7600 cal BP), Groningen (around 7500 cal BP), Pretoria (around 4900 cal BP), and Seattle (around 7600 cal BP). The replicate measurements have a mean offset of 37 +/- 6 14C yr (n = 21) from the Tucson measurements."

(99.5% agreement?)

But that's not a conclusion it is an a priori assumption based on fantasy, working backwards from belief, and unsupported by evidence.

Of course you would say that. But everyone knows that trees would actually stop growing in summer during extended dry spells in extreme dry soil conditions, wood needs moisture to grow. Any denial of this is a head-in-the-sand approach to truth.

And I have shown this to be a false assertion, most recently in Message 51. You are wrong about the soil and wrong about the weather, and your magical mysterious 11-12 stress rings (a) would be identified by an average dendrochronologist and (b) would have to be on the order of 1/2" of rain in weekly installments -- hardly stressful conditions for any tree, and certainly not stressful for the hardy Bristlecone pines that have evolved to handle the extreme ecology they inhabit, including the ability to store and use water over extended periods. The more extreme inhabitants grow on dolomite because it provides another storehouse of water.

I dealt with your stress ring assumption in the previous post. These are not stress rings and do not conform to your description of stress rings. An absolute stop to a wet season would not cause a stress ring, it would cause an end to a ring. Renewed rainfall would create another ring. These would in no way form multiple stress rings but would mimic wet and dry seasonal rings.

I accept your point about dolomite, but this merely allows the tree to live where others cannot live by extending its source of water. Other trees would die, this does not disprove the temporary suspension of growth the tree would undergo during extensive dry spells. I already pointed out that these trees do actually undergo multiple rings in experimental situations under mimicked conditions.

I am not wrong about the soil or the weather, I am mainly in agreement with you about the weather so if I am wrong then so are you. I believe your one quote slightly underestimates the actual rainfall figures in the arid region east of the sierra mountains when compared to actual figures as recorded in nearby weather stations. I also believe your quote overestimates the proportion of snow to rainfall, but the same situation would apply even with your rainfall figures. There would still be a few summer rainfalls of over an inch interspersed with absolutely dry soils , and therefore multiple growth rings per year.

Regarding the dryness of the area here are some quotes:
"Stands of high elevation white pines are typically found on exposed, dry, and rocky slopes, ridges, and mountain peaks. They are well adapted to survive in the inhospitable environmental conditions that exist in these locations including intense cold, drought, wind, and blowing snow and ice."
"The White Mountains are also one of the driest mountain ranges in the world for its height"
"Explore the mysterious White Mountains of the California-Nevada border. ... and the third highest peak in California, is one of the driest regions on Earth."
"The dry climate and high altitude make this region a rare environment"
"Bristlecone pine displays its characteristic gnarled, twisted form as it rises above the arid, dolomite-rich slopes of the White Mountains "

Except that this doesn't show why the pattern is exactly, precisely, and accurately the same ... with only 0.5% error over thousands of years.

This is just you making stuff up to try to resolve the dissonance caused by this information

We seem to be agreeing that the two chronologies match. So I am failing to see why I am trying to resolve dissonance when I agree the two chronologies match. This is central to my argument and it is also central to yours. I am only disputing a RECENT match between the two chronologies due to my claim that current conditions favor multiple rings in the White Mountains but NOT in Europe. Previously both regions were dry, they would match.

Nevertheless I cannot find your link that proves the two chronologies match by 99.5%, could you kindly post the link again so that I can review your evidence.

Again, that's not a conclusion it is an a priori assumption based on fantasy, working backwards from belief, and unsupported by evidence.

In a cold dry environment but with only intermittent summer rainfalls, the nature of trees is that they do stop growing between rainfalls. The weather during the early holocene was often cold and dry with limited summer rainfall, perfect for multiple rings. Dendrochronologists have not taken this into account, but trees have no other way to grow, except these rare summer rainfalls. In between they would stop growing, so even in Europe there would have to have been multiple rings.

(I am going to enjoy your response to this because I am right, evolutionists will froth at the mouth and ask for evidence and deny the truth, and the neutral readers will note that I have to be correct).

Can you show this match graphically? or is it just another completely non-evidenced assertion?

I am relying on your assertions that the two chronologies match, and also noting that both regions had dry cold periods with low summer rainfalls, perfect conditions for multiple rings interspersed by matching worldwide events.

Reduced and drier do not mean drought ...

And as I have said before, that is not really news (Message 28):

I never mentioned drought and so am wondering why you mentioned it? The following weather conditions would largely mimic the current White Mountain weather:
http://hol.sagepub.com/content/16/2/153.abstract
"We show (i) that winters were drier and summers shorter and cooler in western Europe during colder periods in Greenland, (ii) in contrast to the present-day climate in the Holzmaar region, summer rains were clearly reduced during the early Holocene, and (iii) the climate not only changed rapidly (< 5 years) but recurring drier events were common during the studied period."

The entire Holocene (modern era) is now covered by the German oak/pine chronology, including the climate information shown in the tree ring widths. The trees used grew in the flood plain near rivers, meaning you need to show that the rivers dried up for substantial durations and then cram that in to 11-12 mysterious magical growing events. You haven't even begun to show this.

A poor growing season means a narrow ring, not multiple rings. In addition if there were a significant stress event it would show up as a stress ring rather than a winter ring.

Could you kindly prove that the earlier trees in the German chronology were also experiencing flood plain conditions? If so how well drained was the soil between floods? If not then what was the weather like during the earlier period?

Again, that's not a conclusion it is an a priori assumption based on fantasy, working backwards from belief, and unsupported by evidence.

You are grasping at straws here. You need to show actual evidence of your mysterious magical events, not just presuppose them.

I'll let you respond to these and the next two post (one about Irish oaks and one about German oaks and pines) before posting anymore.

Meantime I have requested a copy of your Holocene climate paper so I can see what it says beyond the abstract.

I posted this earlier in this thread, the following describes how tree rings are precipitation and temperature sensitive and this is compounded by dry soils:
http://web.utk.edu/~grissino/principles.htm
"As used in dendrochronology, this principle states that rates of plant processes are constrained by the primary environmental variable(s) that is most limiting. For example, precipitation is often the most limiting factor to plant growth in arid and semiarid areas. In these regions, tree growth cannot proceed faster than that allowed by the amount of precipitation, causing the width of the rings (i.e., the volume of wood produced) to be a function of precipitation. In some locations (for example, in higher latitudes and elevations), temperature is often the most limiting factor. For many forest trees, especially those growing in temperate and/or closed canopy conditions, climatic factors may not be most limiting. Instead, processes related to stand dynamics (especially competition for nutrients and light) may be most limiting to tree growth. In addition, the factor that is most limiting is often acted upon by other non-climatic factors. While precipitation may be limiting in semiarid regions, the effects of the low precipitation amounts may be compounded by well-drained (e.g. sandy) soils."


This message is a reply to:
 Message 53 by RAZD, posted 11-26-2013 7:24 PM RAZD has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 62 by RAZD, posted 11-27-2013 4:24 PM mindspawn has responded

  
mindspawn
Member (Idle past 103 days)
Posts: 1015
Joined: 10-22-2012


Message 59 of 119 (712102)
11-27-2013 7:09 AM
Reply to: Message 54 by RAZD
11-26-2013 7:37 PM


Re: Irish Oak
As we saw in Message 52, Bristlecone Pines, there are two other dendrochronologies of interest in measuring the age of the earth by counting annual layers: the Irish oak and the German oak (and pine) chronologies.
My recollection is that dendrochronology started with oak trees in Europe, by setting up a database of oak tree sections from archaeological sites and matching different sections that overlapped in time to build a complete lineage of tree ring dates.

Unlike the Bristlecone pines the Irish oak is not environmentally challenged:

No problem with this, like I have said before I agree that recent tree ring chronologies in Europe are based on annual rings, and are highly accurate and consilient with known world events. Weather patterns beyond 2000bp were often dryer in Europe and that is where the multiple rings become applicable.

Thus we can have high confidence that the tree rings are annual layers and not due to environmental factors.

The common name for this species is "Post Oak" due to its natural resistance to rot thus making a good material for posts in ancient constructions. This also means that there are a lot of samples that are referenced to and associated with archaeological finds, finds that can be dated by other means, including historical documents as far back as the history goes. Oaks are also considered one of the best species for dendrochronology.

Archaeological finds are often dated using carbon dating, which like tree rings in Europe and also our knowledge of historical dates are all pretty accurate until about 2000 years ago. Earlier than that, the earth was often subjected to regular monsoon type weather and other weather patterns different to today's weather that could result in multiple rings per year.

For example, the Mid-Holocene had global monsoon weather:
https://mywebspace.wisc.edu/...s/04_ClmDyn_globalmonsoon.pdf


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RAZD
Member
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Message 60 of 119 (712105)
11-27-2013 9:05 AM
Reply to: Message 56 by mindspawn
11-27-2013 2:34 AM


Re: Uranium and Thorium
Nice one, looking at your link I see they did use the specific activity method to determine the half life of Thorium 230, have you got any evidence for how the half-life of Uranium 234 was established?

For now let's look at the "well known" value for 238:

http://prc.aps.org/abstract/PRC/v4/i5/p1889_1

quote:
New determinations of the half-lives of 235U and 238U have been made. Improved techniques have allowed the half-life values to be measured with greater accuracy than has been heretofore achieved. Samples were prepared by molecular plating and counted in a intermediate-geometry α-proportional counter with an extremely flat pulse-height plateau. The small amount of residual nonplated uranium was counted in a 2π counter. Energy analysis with a silicon-junction detector was used to measure the presence of "foreign" activities. For 235U, the measured specific activity was (4798.1±3.3) (dis/min)/(mg 235U), corresponding to a half-life of (7.0381+/-0.0048) × 10^8 yr. For 238U, the specific activity was measured as (746.19+/-0.41) (dis/min)/(mg 238U), corresponding to a half-life of (4.4683+/-0.0024) × 10^9 yr. Errors quoted are statistical (standard error of the mean), based upon the observed scatter of the data. This scatter exceeds that expected from counting statistics alone. We believe that systematic errors, if present, will no more than double the quoted errors.

So that is two of the three isotopes/elements.

Whether we look at Thorium 230, Uranium 234, Uranium 238 or carbon dating, we have the same problem that the magnetic field effect on radiocarbon and radioactive elements is largely unknown and has to be calibrated against an additional source of accurate dates. ...

uh ... nope. The magnetic field has no measurable effect on the rate of decay of any element/isotope.

It affects the production of 14C in the atmosphere by gamma rays hitting Nitrogen atoms:

http://science.howstuffworks.com/carbon-14.htm/printable (5)

quote:
Cosmic rays enter the earth's atmosphere in large numbers every day. For example, every person is hit by about half a million cosmic rays every hour. It is not uncommon for a cosmic ray to collide with an atom in the atmosphere, creating a secondary cosmic ray in the form of an energetic neutron, and for these energetic neutrons to collide with nitrogen atoms. When the neutron collides, a nitrogen-14 (seven protons, seven neutrons) atom turns into a carbon-14 atom (six protons, eight neutrons) and a hydrogen atom (one proton, zero neutrons). Carbon-14 is radioactive, with a half-life of about 5,700 years.

This takes energy to accomplish, and the decay releases this energy: Carbon-14 decays back to Nitrogen-14 by beta- decay:

http://education.jlab.org/glossary/betadecay.html (7)

quote:

During beta-minus decay, a neutron in an atom's nucleus turns into a proton, an electron and an antineutrino. The electron and antineutrino fly away from the nucleus, which now has one more proton than it started with. Since an atom gains a proton during beta-minus decay, it changes from one element to another. For example, after undergoing beta-minus decay, an atom of carbon (with 6 protons) becomes an atom of nitrogen (with 7 protons).


Thus cosmic ray activity produces a "Carbon-14 environment" in the atmosphere, where Carbon-14 is being produced or replenished while also being removed by radioactive decay due to a short half-life. This results is a variable but fairly stable proportion of atmospheric Carbon-14 for absorption from the atmosphere by plants during photosynthesis in the proportions of 12C and 14C existing in the atmosphere at the time.

... To check carbon dating against radioactive dating does not promote confidence when both forms of dating underwent the same proportionate increase in magnetic field strength a few thousand years ago, and both decay rates are affected by the magnetic field.

What is being checked by correlating 14C levels against known calendar dates is the amount of 14C in the atmosphere at the time samples were living and getting carbon from the atmosphere. This level is well known to vary with sunspot activity (generation of gamma rays) and with earth's magnetic field that protects the earth from gamma rays.

The decay rate for carbon-14 is also well known: λ14C is 5730 years +/- 40 (Godwin, 1962), and this has been discussed before ( Message 22)

the reference list from the paper with that graph is presented for reference was provided in Message 28, and it is no 48: Godwin, H., 1962. Half-life of radiocarbon. Nature 195, 984.

The variable that is being calibrated by these correlations is not λ14C but No, as previously discussed in Message 42:

quote:
This curve can certainly be used to calibrate the raw 14C age calculation to account for variations in the 14C atmospheric concentrations that were in effect at each age and obtain dates closer to accurate calendar dates (generally younger than the raw 14C dates):

  • λ14C is 5730 years +/- 40 - Message 22
  • the raw 14C age formula is: t = {ln(Nf/No)/ln(1/2)}•λ14C
  • Where No is the original level of the C-14 isotope in the sample (when it was alive and growing and absorbing atmospheric C-14), and Nf is the amount remaining.

So now we can calculate what No was for each age:

Nf/No = (1/2)^(t/λ14C)

No = Nf•2^(t/5740)

Note that it is not the decay rate that is calibrated by the dendrochronology (that is determined in the lab), but the proportion of 14C/12C in the atmosphere at the time the sample grew (used atmospheric carbon).


Conclusion: Ur-Th dating as with carbon dating underwent the same magnetic field effects to the decay rates in the past, therefore their consilience. However the dates are inaccurate because the magnetic field was a lot stronger back then.

Pure hokum, likely due to misunderstanding what is known and what is being calibrated.

Ur-Th dating is not affected by the magnetic field to any measurable degree. So no, that does not explain the consilience.

Enjoy


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 56 by mindspawn, posted 11-27-2013 2:34 AM mindspawn has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 65 by mindspawn, posted 11-28-2013 2:37 AM RAZD has responded

  
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