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Author Topic:   Why is evolution so controversial?
Dr Jack
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Posts: 3514
From: Immigrant in the land of Deutsch
Joined: 07-14-2003
Member Rating: 8.4


Message 541 of 969 (739269)
10-22-2014 11:50 AM
Reply to: Message 540 by New Cat's Eye
10-22-2014 11:39 AM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
It's presumable ultimately derived from the 1993 Takahata paper and it's a broadly quoted figure. Other more recent estimates have been a bit lower.
It's certainly the case that there have been significant bottlenecks in human population history and, accordingly, humans have a low effective population size.

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zaius137
Member (Idle past 3431 days)
Posts: 407
Joined: 05-08-2012


Message 542 of 969 (739272)
10-22-2014 12:08 PM
Reply to: Message 540 by New Cat's Eye
10-22-2014 11:39 AM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
Additionally they estimated the effective population size of the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees to be ~100,000. This was somewhat surprising since the present day effective population size of humans is estimated to be only ~10,000. Human evolutionary genetics - Wikipedia
I used the wiki here, estimates do vary somewhat. I will have to go deeper for further conformation... Let us just accept a reasonable number to further our discussion.

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 Message 540 by New Cat's Eye, posted 10-22-2014 11:39 AM New Cat's Eye has replied

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Taq
Member
Posts: 10038
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 543 of 969 (739285)
10-22-2014 1:02 PM
Reply to: Message 538 by zaius137
10-22-2014 11:30 AM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
The "effective population (Ne)" is approximately 10,000 in the current population of ~ 7 billion. This could not be if there was not a recent origin or a recent bottleneck in human ancestry. Large populations of organisms drift by polymorphisms over large timespans, increasing the "effective population" unless they have experienced the above mentioned.
You answered your own question. The reason for the low effective population is genetic bottlenecks.
Since the acceptance of indels as percentage divergence between humans and chimps, evolution can not maintain a 5.6 million year split between humans and chimps. Paleoanthropology can not accommodate the new similarity percentage of 95%.
Since the acceptance of indels? We have known about indels since we were able to sequence DNA which has been decades.
Also, why do 5 million indels in addition to 35 million substitutions pose a problem for the 5 million year estimated time since divergence?

This message is a reply to:
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New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 544 of 969 (739290)
10-22-2014 1:11 PM
Reply to: Message 542 by zaius137
10-22-2014 12:08 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
Got it, thanks.
But, that is neither evidence for a young genome nor that our DNA denies common descent.
It is evidence of a bottle neck in the human population.
We're aware of that.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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zaius137
Member (Idle past 3431 days)
Posts: 407
Joined: 05-08-2012


Message 545 of 969 (739294)
10-22-2014 1:34 PM
Reply to: Message 544 by New Cat's Eye
10-22-2014 1:11 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
quote:
It is evidence of a bottle neck in the human population.
So when and how did your bottleneck happen?

This message is a reply to:
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zaius137
Member (Idle past 3431 days)
Posts: 407
Joined: 05-08-2012


Message 546 of 969 (739296)
10-22-2014 1:47 PM
Reply to: Message 543 by Taq
10-22-2014 1:02 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
quote:
Also, why do 5 million indels in addition to 35 million substitutions pose a problem for the 5 million year estimated time since divergence?
Simple Instead of being 1.33% divergent from chimps, we are now found to be 5% divergent from chimps. There are simply not enough beneficial mutations to explain a divergence from the chimp. As a side note, most mutations are either neutral or deleterious. Both are added to that genetic loading number in humans under soft selection and eventually have to be purged from a population to maintain a acceptable fitness in that population.
Explain how you can account for the high U that would be imparted if mutation rates were met for a human chimp divergence of 5.6 million years? I can quantify that number but you would not like the result.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 543 by Taq, posted 10-22-2014 1:02 PM Taq has replied

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 Message 553 by Taq, posted 10-22-2014 5:57 PM zaius137 has replied

  
New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


Message 547 of 969 (739297)
10-22-2014 2:00 PM
Reply to: Message 545 by zaius137
10-22-2014 1:34 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
So when and how did your bottleneck happen?
If you would have kept reading after where you cut off your quote, you would have seen the following in the wiki page you linked to:
quote:
Additionally they estimated the effective population size of the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees to be ~100,000. This was somewhat surprising since the present day effective population size of humans is estimated to be only ~10,000. If true that means that the human lineage would have experienced an immense decrease of its effective population size (and thus genetic diversity) in its evolution. (see Toba catastrophe theory)
That wiki link goes to:
quote:
The Toba supereruption was a supervolcanic eruption that occurred some time between 69,000 and 77,000 years ago at the site of present-day Lake Toba (Sumatra, Indonesia). It is one of the Earth's largest known eruptions. The Toba catastrophe hypothesis holds that this event caused a global volcanic winter of 6—10 years and possibly a 1,000-year-long cooling episode.
and:
quote:
The Toba eruption has been linked to a genetic bottleneck in human evolution about 50,000 years ago,[29][30] which may have resulted from a severe reduction in the size of the total human population due to the effects of the eruption on the global climate.
According to the genetic bottleneck theory, between 50,000 and 100,000 years ago, human populations sharply decreased to 3,000—10,000 surviving individuals. It is supported by genetic evidence suggesting that today's humans are descended from a very small population of between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding pairs that existed about 70,000 years ago.
That's one theory. There's another that says:
quote:
On the other hand, in 2000, a Molecular Biology and Evolution paper suggested a transplanting model or a 'long bottleneck' to account for the limited genetic variation, rather than a catastrophic environmental change. This would be consistent with suggestions that in sub-Saharan Africa numbers could have dropped at times as low as 2,000, for perhaps as long as 100,000 years, before numbers began to expand again in the Late Stone Age.
You can read the paper on that one here: Population Bottlenecks and Pleistocene Human Evolution | Molecular Biology and Evolution | Oxford Academic
What makes you think that the human effictive population size means that the genome is young and that we can't have common decent?

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Genomicus
Member (Idle past 1963 days)
Posts: 852
Joined: 02-15-2012


Message 548 of 969 (739300)
10-22-2014 2:15 PM
Reply to: Message 538 by zaius137
10-22-2014 11:30 AM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
The "effective population (Ne)" is approximately 10,000 in the current population of ~ 7 billion. This could not be if there was not a recent origin or a recent bottleneck in human ancestry.
The molecular data suggests a recent bottleneck, not a recent origin. See Heng and Durbin (2011). In this study, the researchers used bioinformatic approaches to date the time of the bottleneck. If there were a recent origin, we wouldn't see things like:
"Both populations experienced a severe bottleneck between 10—60kya while African populations experienced a milder bottleneck from which they recovered earlier."
There's plenty of evidence in the literature -- utilizing different methods -- that suggest a bottleneck, rather than a recent origin. So this argument for a recent origin doesn't really stand up well in the light of scrutiny.
Since the acceptance of indels as percentage divergence between humans and chimps, evolution can not maintain a 5.6 million year split between humans and chimps. Paleoanthropology can not accommodate the new similarity percentage of 95%.
Uh, you haven't explained why the theory of common descent is not compatible with the amount of indels that separate our genomes from the genomes of chimps. You're just saying it can't. Back that up with rigorous science.
Reference
Inference of Human Population History From Whole Genome Sequence of A Single Individual, 2011.

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Genomicus
Member (Idle past 1963 days)
Posts: 852
Joined: 02-15-2012


Message 549 of 969 (739302)
10-22-2014 2:16 PM
Reply to: Message 545 by zaius137
10-22-2014 1:34 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
So when and how did your bottleneck happen?
The paper I cited above gives a neat "when" to your question. How did the bottleneck happen? There are plenty of mechanisms for bottlenecks. Bottlenecks aren't implausible at all; we know they happen.

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Genomicus
Member (Idle past 1963 days)
Posts: 852
Joined: 02-15-2012


Message 550 of 969 (739303)
10-22-2014 2:25 PM
Reply to: Message 546 by zaius137
10-22-2014 1:47 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
Simple Instead of being 1.33% divergent from chimps, we are now found to be 5% divergent from chimps. There are simply not enough beneficial mutations to explain a divergence from the chimp.
This doesn't make much sense. Because our genome differs roughly 5% from the chimp genome, that means there couldn't have been enough beneficial mutations? Do you have something to back that line of thought up?
As a side note, most mutations are either neutral or deleterious. Both are added to that genetic loading number in humans under soft selection and eventually have to be purged from a population to maintain a acceptable fitness in that population.
And:
Explain how you can account for the high U that would be imparted if mutation rates were met for a human chimp divergence of 5.6 million years? I can quantify that number but you would not like the result.
Selection pressures can lead to a higher-than-average U value. That's nothing new.
Edited by Genomicus, : No reason given.

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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 306 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 551 of 969 (739313)
10-22-2014 3:33 PM
Reply to: Message 546 by zaius137
10-22-2014 1:47 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
Simple Instead of being 1.33% divergent from chimps, we are now found to be 5% divergent from chimps. There are simply not enough beneficial mutations to explain a divergence from the chimp.
Ah, one of my favorite varieties of creationist nonsense ... the non-quantitative quantitative argument. Hooray, you can prove that you're right with numbers. But without any actual math, 'cos that's hard.

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New Cat's Eye
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 552 of 969 (739317)
10-22-2014 4:09 PM
Reply to: Message 546 by zaius137
10-22-2014 1:47 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
Instead of being 1.33% divergent from chimps, we are now found to be 5% divergent from chimps. There are simply not enough beneficial mutations to explain a divergence from the chimp.
We didn't evolve from the chimp.
We evolved from a common ancestor with the chimp.
How much of that divergence from chimps is due to our evolution from the common ancestor, and how much of that divergence is due to the chimps evolution from the common ancestor?
Neither of us species hold all of the evolution from the common ancestor. Some of it is ours and some of it is their's.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 546 by zaius137, posted 10-22-2014 1:47 PM zaius137 has replied

Replies to this message:
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Taq
Member
Posts: 10038
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 553 of 969 (739327)
10-22-2014 5:57 PM
Reply to: Message 546 by zaius137
10-22-2014 1:47 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
Simple Instead of being 1.33% divergent from chimps, we are now found to be 5% divergent from chimps.
What do you mean "instead of"? Both of those figures are from the same paper, and they are measurements of different things. The 1.33% is a measurement of the number of changes in the DNA we still share with chimps. The 5% includes the divergence caused by DNA we no longer share, the DNA that has either been removed or added to each lineage. These are answers to different questions, not an "instead of".
There are simply not enough beneficial mutations to explain a divergence from the chimp.
Based on what evidence? The 1.33% involves 35 milllion mutation events. The 5% involves the addition of just 5 million more mutation events. Why do you think the addition of just 5 million more mutations pushes it over the edge?
As a side note, most mutations are either neutral or deleterious.
Yes, just as most atmospheric molecules are either nitrogen or radon.
Both are added to that genetic loading number in humans under soft selection and eventually have to be purged from a population to maintain a acceptable fitness in that population.
Neutral mutations are not added to those genetic loading numbers.
Explain how you can account for the high U that would be imparted if mutation rates were met for a human chimp divergence of 5.6 million years?
You would have to show that the U would be too high, first.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 546 by zaius137, posted 10-22-2014 1:47 PM zaius137 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 554 by zaius137, posted 10-22-2014 7:58 PM Taq has replied

  
zaius137
Member (Idle past 3431 days)
Posts: 407
Joined: 05-08-2012


Message 554 of 969 (739328)
10-22-2014 7:58 PM
Reply to: Message 553 by Taq
10-22-2014 5:57 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
quote:
The Toba catastrophe theory suggests that a bottleneck of the human population occurred c. 70,000 years ago, proposing that the human population was reduced to perhaps 10,000 individuals[3]
All these bottleneck scenarios involve some kind of low population over extended time frames. That is not really tenable when you take into account the needed mutation rates for divergence between the human and chimp genome. A heavy mutation load in a small population tends to cause that population to be susceptible to sudden collapse (or a sustained downward spiral in population).
quote:
You would have to show that the U would be too high, first.
The following is the calculation for a "U" given a needed mutation rate for a divergence of 5% (95% similarity) and a 5.6 million year divergence from human to chimp.
5.6 million years is 244 thousand generations (given 23 years per generation).
t= number of generations since divergence (244 thousand)
k= percentage of sequence divergence Estimated at 5%
Ne= effective size of population ~10^3
(u)= mutation rate needed.
u= k/(2t+4Ne) or 9.5x10^-8 or ~ 600 mutations per generation (mutation rate times the diploid genome in humans).
Now calculating deleterious mutation rate (U) from the following suggesting that 1.7% of the genome is subject to constraint (normal estimate, citation on demand).
This gives: (600x.017)= U = 10.7 (completely untenable) A acceptable amount by evolutionists would be around U=1.3.
Calculating the statistical birth rate to avoid passing on deleterious mutations to the next generation by the poisson distribution.
B = 2e^U (U=10.7)=
88 thousand offspring needed per mating pair per generation.
This is clearly impossible.
I am sure most of you professionals can follow that calculation... If I need to, I will go over it step by step for you (maybe tomorrow).
You can make up all the stories you like about how and when bottlenecks happen in a population but you must temper that story to real world conditions.
Edited by zaius137, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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zaius137
Member (Idle past 3431 days)
Posts: 407
Joined: 05-08-2012


Message 555 of 969 (739329)
10-22-2014 8:16 PM
Reply to: Message 552 by New Cat's Eye
10-22-2014 4:09 PM


Re: What if God used evolution to create man?
quote:
We didn't evolve from the chimp.
Please read what I said carefully.. I said diverged.
quote:
How much of that divergence from chimps is due to our evolution from the common ancestor, and how much of that divergence is due to the chimps evolution from the common ancestor?
All things made equal, most scientists will assume half in their calculations Citation on demand.
quote:
Neither of us species hold all of the evolution from the common ancestor. Some of it is ours and some of it is their’s.
True, but also true is that we are more closely related to the common ancestor than to the chimp. So did the common ancestor look more like us or like the chimp? I would say neither.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 552 by New Cat's Eye, posted 10-22-2014 4:09 PM New Cat's Eye has replied

Replies to this message:
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