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Author | Topic: The Drop in Oil: How Big a Problem? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NoNukes Inactive Member |
It's almost impossible to have a real job while relying on public transportation. The type of transportation systems that make it possible exist only in heavily populated cities (few hundred thousand people or more). Suitable public transportation systems are even more rare than that. Try get around in the Atlanta suburbs or even getting to a baseball game using public transportation. It's nearly impossible to do that. Atlanta's population is about a half million with about 5.5 million in the metro Atlanta area.Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
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Minnemooseus Member Posts: 3945 From: Duluth, Minnesota, U.S. (West end of Lake Superior) Joined: Member Rating: 10.0
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Listening to an auto dealers ad on the radio - It included something along the lines of:
"With gas prices low, now's the time to buy a 4 wheel drive truck". I guess when gas prices go back up, it will be "time to sell a 4 wheel drive truck". MooseProfessor, geology, Whatsamatta U Evolution - Changes in the environment, caused by the interactions of the components of the environment. "Do not meddle in the affairs of cats, for they are subtle and will piss on your computer." - Bruce Graham "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." - John Kenneth Galbraith "Yesterday on Fox News, commentator Glenn Beck said that he believes President Obama is a racist. To be fair, every time you watch Glenn Beck, it does get a little easier to hate white people." - Conan O'Brien "I know a little about a lot of things, and a lot about a few things, but I'm highly ignorant about everything." - Moose
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Percy Member Posts: 22480 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.8
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A Bloomberg Businessweek article dated today expresses optimism, and they back it up with a little math:
Cheaper oil is still creating more winners than losers. Far more people live in oil-importing countries than live in oil-exporting countries. The U.S., for one, remains a net importer. The well-publicized travails of U.S. shale oil producers are small compared with the gains by American consumers and businesses that are paying less for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, petrochemicals, and the like. With fuel prices down, people are driving more miles and buying more cars and trucks. Do the math: Close to 70 percent of the U.S. economy is consumer spending, which will gain from cheaper crude. Only about 10 percent is capital spending, of which 10 percent to 15 percent is the energy sector. That comes to roughly 1 percent of U.S. output, which might decline 20 percent this year, making it a relative drop in the bucket of U.S. gross domestic product, says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Global Insight. This is the kind of information I was looking for. They understate the size of the energy sector by focusing only on its capital spending, but even if for the sake of comparison we exaggerate the energy sector's contribution to be as much as 5% of the economy, it's dwarfed by the 70% that is consumer spending. --Percy
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Dogmafood Member (Idle past 370 days) Posts: 1815 From: Ontario Canada Joined: |
Does anybody think that this oil glut has been orchestrated to influence the behaviour of states like Russia and Venezuela? I am sure that Putin is feeling the pinch (in as much as a guy that is worth $70B can feel the pinch).
I was also wondering about the Rockefeller's recent divestment from oil related stocks. This seems suspisciously convienient. I get the impression that someone knows about pending technology that will change things.
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Jon Inactive Member |
Do those numbers include the loss to railway and refinery workers?
Consumer spending may be the largest sector of the economy, but those consumers get their spending money from jobs.
...That comes to roughly 1 percent of U.S. output, which might decline 20 percent this year, making it a relative drop in the bucket of U.S. gross domestic product, says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Global Insight. Even one drop is enough to send a ripple through the whole bucket.
They understate the size of the energy sector by focusing only on its capital spending, but even if for the sake of comparison we exaggerate the energy sector's contribution to be as much as 5% of the economy, it's dwarfed by the 70% that is consumer spending. When all you talk about is buying and spending, you miss a huge chunk of the picture, such as what the effect of less spending in one area has on the ability of others to spend in some other area.Love your enemies!
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ringo Member (Idle past 433 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined: |
Coyote writes:
Who in their right mind would want to live where there's no public transportation?
Who in their right mind would want to live in a city, let alone a large one?Try your public transportation out in the hills and see how far you get.
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New Cat's Eye Inactive Member
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Who in their right mind would want to live where there's no public transportation? Pssh, last time I got on a bus I got off at the next stop and hailed a taxi. It was awful.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1426 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Coyote writes:
Who in their right mind would want to live where there's no public transportation? Who in their right mind would want to live in a city, let alone a large one?Try your public transportation out in the hills and see how far you get. As in all things it depends on how it is implemented and how dedicated the people involve are to implementing a viable system. The US is an automobile dominated society in part because of large open spaces and in part because car manufacturers bought up and destroyed the public transportation systems. At one point you could travel up and down the coast by trolley cars, so people in NY City could vacation in RI and ME iirc. High speed trains have greater capacity and use less fuel than airplanes and can service into major cities. US trains are antiquated (part of the reason oil tanker trains crash and burn), but remember that trains tied the country together and served the wide open spaces before planes took over. I lived in Toronto for many years and used public transportation often and happily. Clean, timely, easy transfers between lines and cheap, cheaper than parking, let alone fuel and the hassle of driving when you could ride and read. I traveled to Boston and back without car or taxi. Many people commute by public transportation because they can relax and read, and because we have service close to work areas and parking (bikes and cars) for commuter connections. Electric buses are quiet and fume free. The ones here in RI have racks for bicycles. Curiously I took a taxi once here and vowed never again. I had to wait forever for it and it was expensive, the driver chatted the whole time about someone dying in the back seat and he didn't get paid. Horrid. Enjoy Edited by RAZD, : ...by our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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ringo Member (Idle past 433 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined:
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Cat's Eye writes:
I use my bus pass for one or two round trips every day. Using taxis the same amount would cost me more than $1000 a month.
Pssh, last time I got on a bus I got off at the next stop and hailed a taxi. It was awful.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1426 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Cat's Eye writes:
I use my bus pass for one or two round trips every day. Using taxis the same amount would cost me more than $1000 a month. Pssh, last time I got on a bus I got off at the next stop and hailed a taxi. It was awful. Curiously I wonder if we are comparing Canadian publicly owned public transportation and US corporate owned and operated leased buses? Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9142 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.3
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Duluth, MN has excellent public transportation. My son uses it every day. He is handicapped, but can get anywhere in the city or Superior, WI he needs to go. Without it he would not be able to even have a job. I know a number of professionals that use it every day. The public transportation in the Minneapolis/St Paul area is very good also. There are buses that bring people in from the suburbs, the bus lines are pretty comprehensive and accessible and the light rail is fantastic.
Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.
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Taq Member Posts: 10038 Joined: Member Rating: 5.3 |
People like oil. The alternatives aren't competitive enough. I have had so many troubles with cars and their damn electronics and gadgetry lately I'm sick of it. And the cars I use still run with a fully gasoline engine. I couldn't imagine the nightmare if the whole damn thing were nothing but trinkets, buzzers, and sparkies. How happy I'd be with a tube, some pistons, four wheels, and a few dozen gallons of gas to run the whole thing without any wires or computers. Given the success I've had so far with electronics in cars (none), I'd never switch to an electric car.
Electric motors are much simpler than internal combustion engines. Some of the earliest automobiles were electric, like this 1911 Baker electric car:
All of the complexity in hybrid cars and modern cars is due to the internal combustion engine, not the electric one. Edited by Taq, : No reason given.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9504 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.7
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Well yes, but that is only because electric cars have absolutely rubbish range.
Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9142 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.3
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Well yes, but that is only because electric cars have absolutely rubbish range.
Perfectly fine for cities and suburbs. Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.
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Jon Inactive Member |
Perfectly fine for cities and suburbs. So utterly useless in the U.S., then?Love your enemies!
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