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Author Topic:   Quake or Quack
RAZD
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Posts: 19080
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
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Message 1 of 17 (758273)
05-23-2015 9:53 AM


Ran into this interesting website:

http://dutchsinse.com/...gon-whole-coast-moved-over-48-hours

quote:
5/22/2015 Whole West coast moved over 48 hours Oregon Earthquake near Erupting Volcano

Over the past 48 hours the whole of the West coast of the United States has moved on at least a 4.0 magnitude level or greater.

This new West coast earthquake activity is expected, but unwelcome.

See the earthquake forecast for the West coast of the United States here (issued May 21 2015):

This new West coast earthquake unrest began with a 4.2M at the border of Alaska and British Colombia Canada (as expected).

The Alaska activity was shortly followed by a new swarm of earthquakes at the Salton Sea Volcanic buttes (located in Southern California).

The Southern California volcanic earthquake swarm was shortly followed by a 4.1M event in Napa Vallay / Gorda Escarpment zone near San Francisco, CA.

All the aforementioned activity has now been followed by a 4.2 magnitude earthquake off the shores of Oregon. These events all point towards Vancouver Island BC as a silent zone to watch, along with Washington State.

Worthy to note, this Oregon earthquake occurred very close to the location of a new underwater volcano which was detected along the Axial Seamount, which is located due West of the Oregon Coast.


A rather overwhelming review of recent earthquakes and past and present volcanic activity.

The author is not a seismologist as far as I can see, but certainly has an (obsessive?) interest in the field.

When he says things like (paraphrased) "you won't see this reported in the media" or "the professionals won't tell you about the link of quakes to inactive volcanoes" my reaction is quack conspiracy thinking ... but what is the conspiracy?

What do you think?

Enjoy

how about the "Is it Science" forum?

Edited by Admin, : Correct typos.


we are limited in our ability to understand
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RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
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Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by NosyNed, posted 05-23-2015 10:09 AM RAZD has responded
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Admin
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Message 2 of 17 (758275)
05-23-2015 10:06 AM


Thread Copied from Proposed New Topics Forum
Thread copied here from the Quake or Quack thread in the Proposed New Topics forum.
    
NosyNed
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Posts: 8800
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003
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Message 3 of 17 (758277)
05-23-2015 10:09 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by RAZD
05-23-2015 9:53 AM


Without even reading
Just from your quotes it smells very quacky to me. It isn't worth bothering with. Of course, when my computer falls off my desk here in Vancouver I'll be regretting that.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by RAZD, posted 05-23-2015 9:53 AM RAZD has responded

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RAZD
Member
Posts: 19080
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 4 of 17 (758287)
05-23-2015 4:05 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by NosyNed
05-23-2015 10:09 AM


Re: Without even reading
Just from your quotes it smells very quacky to me. ...

Or one level down to "alarmist" ...

The evidence he cites should be confirmable, however, and he provides some links in that regard - to recent earthquakes.

His predictions seem somewhat in line with typical seismologists saying that we don't know where or when with any degree of confidence, but that dormant sections of otherwise active faults are likely to see some activity as stress builds up.

It seems that he has produced quite a large model of past quakes by time, location and depth, and that he has correlated it with continental plates.

Enjoy

Edited by Adminnemooseus, : Itty bitty code fix.


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
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Jon
Inactive Member


Message 5 of 17 (758311)
05-23-2015 8:58 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by RAZD
05-23-2015 9:53 AM


What's the Argument?
The author is not a seismologist as far as I can see, but certainly has an (obsessive?) interest in the field.

His Contact page gives him away.


Love your enemies!

This message is a reply to:
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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 3428
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006


Message 6 of 17 (758313)
05-23-2015 9:10 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by RAZD
05-23-2015 4:05 PM


Re: Without even reading
There has been increased quake activity on the west coast the last two days. Nothing above 4.1 as I see. Mag 4 tremblers are not unusual in California. The number of active sites is a bit unusual. Still, these are reported in the media and no one from USGS is rushing to move to Colorado so there appears to be no imminent threat of my place in Phoenix becoming ocean-side property any time soon.
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jar
Member
Posts: 29435
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 7 of 17 (758353)
05-24-2015 8:59 AM
Reply to: Message 6 by AZPaul3
05-23-2015 9:10 PM


Re: Without even reading
There was a 4.0 earthquake in Pratt Kansas yesterday.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 3428
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006


Message 8 of 17 (758392)
05-24-2015 7:58 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by jar
05-24-2015 8:59 AM


Re: Without even reading
You might like this site:

Earthquake Track.

You can see different areas and their quake activity.

Kansas gets a lot of small quakes. But then it is close to Oklahoma which also gets a lot of tremblers.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by jar, posted 05-24-2015 8:59 AM jar has responded

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jar
Member
Posts: 29435
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 9 of 17 (758394)
05-24-2015 10:05 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by AZPaul3
05-24-2015 7:58 PM


Re: Without even reading
Yup, that is where I found out about the Pratt earthquake.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by AZPaul3, posted 05-24-2015 7:58 PM AZPaul3 has responded

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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 3428
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006


(1)
Message 10 of 17 (758411)
05-25-2015 8:42 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by jar
05-24-2015 10:05 PM


Re: Without even reading
So I spent weeks of my precious life, weeks I tell you, hunting this vast internet high and low looking, scouring, for this gift for you, I sacrificed my now permanently disfigured index finger and suffer a flat, fat?, no, flat(ter) butt all to present you with this prize of useful important information and you tell me you already had it?

Well ... humpf!


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 Message 9 by jar, posted 05-24-2015 10:05 PM jar has acknowledged this reply

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 19080
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 11 of 17 (758415)
05-25-2015 10:21 AM
Reply to: Message 6 by AZPaul3
05-23-2015 9:10 PM


what does it mean
There has been increased quake activity on the west coast the last two days. Nothing above 4.1 as I see. Mag 4 tremblers are not unusual in California.

As I remember the Richter Scale is logarithmic and each integer represents a 10-fold change in energy. Checking with wiki I see:

quote:
MagnetudeAverage Quake Effects
3.03.9Often felt by people, but very rarely
causes damage. Shaking of indoor
objects can be noticeable.
4.04.9Noticeable shaking of indoor objects and
rattling noises. Felt by most people in
the affected area. Slightly felt outside.
Generally causes none to minimal damage.
Moderate to significant damage very
unlikely. Some objects may fall off
shelves or be knocked over.
5.05.9Can cause damage of varying severity to
poorly constructed buildings. At most,
none to slight damage to all other
buildings. Felt by everyone.

So lots of little quakes in the 3.03.9 are just noticeable but rarely cause damage, and even quakes in the 4.04.9 range rarely cause significant damage (depending on what things on shelves that fall off involve), and it is only when you get into the 5.05.9 range that you begin to get significant damage ... to poorly constructed structures.

This is what I was talking about it being an "alarmist" site rather than a conspiracy theory site (although it seems the author is willing to take that path), as he talks about pending quakes as posing a great danger yet most of the quakes he documents are under 4.5, and he makes it seem more dangerous than it is.

Nor should we be surprised by any links between quakes and volcanic activity as this link is very well documented along plate boundaries.

That being said, I found the global scale that he documented quite fascinating -- the earth is indeed in a rather constant state of flux and change, and if nothing else this is one way to show that fact.

I've only experienced one quake, while camping in California, and we didn't know what it was until we left in the morning and went to lunch. It was in the 3's as I recall.

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

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anglagard
Member
Posts: 2170
From: Big Spring, TX, USA
Joined: 03-18-2006
Member Rating: 6.1


Message 12 of 17 (758422)
05-25-2015 12:59 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by RAZD
05-25-2015 10:21 AM


Re: what does it mean
RAZD writes:

I've only experienced one quake, while camping in California, and we didn't know what it was until we left in the morning and went to lunch. It was in the 3's as I recall.

I have been in a few at my location mid-4s, mostly in California, but the last in New Mexico. The last was the most interesting as I was near the epicenter and had recently taken some geophysics classes.

Sleeping on the couch at my parent's house after a night well spent at the Capitol Bar in Socorro, I was awakened by the pressure wave which hits like a brief punch or jolt, less than a second in duration, making a booming sound. Immediately after came the shear wave, rattling dishes and anything not firmly fixed which lasted for some 5 to 10 seconds. During this time I also saw the Raleigh wave on the floor which made it appear to undulate in a series of peaks and troughs like waves in the open ocean. I found the experience quite informative, but I would like to keep it under 5 on the Richter Scale, as you may well understand.


Read not to contradict and confute, not to believe and take for granted, not to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider. - Francis Bacon

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Coyote
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Joined: 01-12-2008
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 13 of 17 (758423)
05-25-2015 1:14 PM
Reply to: Message 12 by anglagard
05-25-2015 12:59 PM


Loma Prieta earthquake
I was not too far from the epicenter of the Loma Prieta earthquake, 6.9.

6.9 gets your attention real quick!


Religious belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge.

Belief gets in the way of learning--Robert A. Heinlein

How can I possibly put a new idea into your heads, if I do not first remove your delusions?--Robert A. Heinlein

It's not what we don't know that hurts, it's what we know that ain't so--Will Rogers

If I am entitled to something, someone else is obliged to pay--Jerry Pournelle

If a religion's teachings are true, then it should have nothing to fear from science...--dwise1

"Multiculturalism" demands that the US be tolerant of everything except its own past, culture, traditions, and identity.


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edge
Member
Posts: 4002
From: Colorado, USA
Joined: 01-09-2002
Member Rating: 2.7


(1)
Message 14 of 17 (758426)
05-25-2015 3:17 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by RAZD
05-25-2015 10:21 AM


Re: what does it mean
This is what I was talking about it being an "alarmist" site rather than a conspiracy theory site (although it seems the author is willing to take that path), as he talks about pending quakes as posing a great danger yet most of the quakes he documents are under 4.5, and he makes it seem more dangerous than it is.

I concur. As with so many 'news' outlet today, this is an alarmist site, feeding off peoples' fear of natural disasters. A few comments:

'Predicting' M3 earthquakes in a region is hardly a difficult task. These are relatively abundant earthquakes and if you just look at seismic risk maps, you could do the same.

There are a lot of 'anthropic' M3 earthquakes and they have been going on for years. The were often caused by water or waste injection wells and mine collapses etc. Nowadays, fracking is getting to be more common.

There is an argument that lots of low magnitude earthquakes are better than one big one. It has been proposed that we initiate small quakes in high risk areas, but who's going to take that chance?

I really have a hard time correlating what's happening in LA with seismicity events (or lack of) in Vancouver. The crust of the earth just doesn't transmit stresses that far. Keep in mind also that the events occur on different faults and exhibit different stress fields. The San Andreas is strike slip plate boundary, Vancouver is a convergent boundary and the Juan de Fuca ridge is a divergent boundary ...

Now, if you want to discuss earthquake related to earth tides, that's a different story.

At the same time, there are periods where volcanism is more pronounced and it may have something to do with heat flows from the mantle/core. That would affect earthquakes and volcanoes, since plate tectonics is responsible for the location of both.

Just my two-cents...


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RAZD
Member
Posts: 19080
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 15 of 17 (758778)
06-02-2015 9:51 AM
Reply to: Message 14 by edge
05-25-2015 3:17 PM


bada boom bada bing?
So was he right? He said

quote:
All the aforementioned activity has now been followed by a 4.2 magnitude earthquake off the shores of Oregon. These events all point towards Vancouver Island BC as a silent zone to watch, along with Washington State.

Worthy to note, this Oregon earthquake occurred very close to the location of a new underwater volcano which was detected along the Axial Seamount, which is located due West of the Oregon Coast.


and now we have Four earthquakes strike off Oregon coast:

quote:

A series of four earthquakes struck late Sunday and Monday morning off the coast of Oregon.

It started with a 5.8 earthquake at 11:52 p.m. in the Pacific nearly 300 miles west of Newport.

The Lincoln County Sheriff's office in Newport said it did not receive any calls from the public about the quake.

Amy Vaughan with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) said it occurred in an active seismic area.

The second earthquake, 4.3 magnitude, struck just after midnight just a mile away from the first quake.

The third earthquake hit just before 4 a.m. Monday about 278 miles northwest of Coos Bay. It measured 5.5 magnitude.

The fourth earthquake was reported at 7:46 a.m. near the same area. It measured 4.4 magnitude.

There was no tsunami threat from any of the quakes.


His "prediction" was for activity further north, and this looks like it is connected to the same seamount where he had already recorded activiety ... a bit bigger ...

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAmerican☆Zen☯Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

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