Understanding through Discussion


Welcome! You are not logged in. [ Login ]
EvC Forum active members: 79 (8863 total)
Current session began: 
Page Loaded: 09-20-2018 7:49 PM
194 online now:
xongsmith (1 member, 193 visitors)
Chatting now:  Chat room empty
Newest Member: rldawnca
Post Volume:
Total: 838,716 Year: 13,539/29,783 Month: 985/1,576 Week: 197/303 Day: 21/36 Hour: 2/0


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Prev123
4
5678Next
Author Topic:   Self-Driving Cars
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 3456
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006


Message 46 of 112 (772410)
11-13-2015 3:19 PM
Reply to: Message 45 by Percy
11-13-2015 2:08 PM


Re: Apparently Google is Serious about 25 mph
I hadn't heard this before and wasn't able to confirm it.

In your link to the story there is a further link to the police department's blog which contains yet another link to the applicable law Google has to operate under. Neighborhood Electric Vehicle Definition per 385.5 of the California Vehicle Code.

Why California stuck Google under the Golf Cart law, and why Google accepted this, is outside my willingness to search, but there it is.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 45 by Percy, posted 11-13-2015 2:08 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 47 by NoNukes, posted 11-13-2015 3:52 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply
 Message 48 by Percy, posted 11-13-2015 3:55 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
NoNukes
Inactive Member


Message 47 of 112 (772413)
11-13-2015 3:52 PM
Reply to: Message 46 by AZPaul3
11-13-2015 3:19 PM


Re: Apparently Google is Serious about 25 mph
Why California stuck Google under the Golf Cart law, and why Google accepted this, is outside my willingness to search, but there it is.

This section of California law is for vehicles that are incapable of going faster than 25 mph. If the car can go faster, then licensing as a regular car is required.

In a follow up article, Google says that they were not ticketed. It also appears that the law would allow golf carts on that stretch of road because the speed limit was no more than 35 mph. Surely the policeman could not have ticketed a golf cart in that situation.

ABE:

Looks like one thing that their goofy license accomplishes is that they cannot actually be ticketed for going 25 in a 35mph zone.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams


This message is a reply to:
 Message 46 by AZPaul3, posted 11-13-2015 3:19 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 17653
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 48 of 112 (772414)
11-13-2015 3:55 PM
Reply to: Message 46 by AZPaul3
11-13-2015 3:19 PM


Re: Apparently Google is Serious about 25 mph
You're right, the Mountain View Police Blog contains a link to the Low Speed Vehicle law, but there's nothing in that law about Google. I did finally find a news item on the web from last year that accurately reports the car's speed limitation: Googles New Self-Driving Car Ditches the Steering Wheel. There's no reference to that law, but obviously Google was aware of it:

quote:
The car is limited to a maximum speed of 25 miles per hour. That speed covers most driving in most cities, Urmson said. Its legal to drive 25 miles per hour on a street with a 35 mile per hour limit.

The blog also contains a link to California's Minimum Speed Law, which only applies to highways, and the blog correctly concludes that the Google car was operating within the law.

I'm guessing the car can exceed 25 mph but is programmed not to. This incident with the Google car creating a rolling road block says 25 mph is too slow. Even in Manhattan it's too slow. Sure, there are traffic jams in Manhattan, but not everywhere all the time. Unless they've changed it, the lights in Manhattan change green all north/south, then all east/west. When traffic jams aren't an issue there's an expectation that other cars will accelerate briskly and travel at a fair clip so as to make it through as many green lights as possible. The speed limit in Manhattan is 25 mph, but as is true in most parts of the country, if you go the speed limit you're going to annoy people. There are other articles reporting that Google's driverless cars designed to exceed speed limit (the Lexus ones), so that the new car isn't is kind of odd.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 46 by AZPaul3, posted 11-13-2015 3:19 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

    
ThinAirDesigns
Member (Idle past 267 days)
Posts: 564
Joined: 02-12-2015


Message 49 of 112 (772420)
11-13-2015 5:37 PM


Having ridden in the Google cars with Sebastian Thrun I can assure you there is no such 25mph limit for self driving vehicles in CA.

JB

Edited by ThinAirDesigns, : No reason given.


Replies to this message:
 Message 50 by Percy, posted 11-14-2015 7:55 AM ThinAirDesigns has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 17653
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 50 of 112 (772438)
11-14-2015 7:55 AM
Reply to: Message 49 by ThinAirDesigns
11-13-2015 5:37 PM


But it was a Lexus, right?

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by ThinAirDesigns, posted 11-13-2015 5:37 PM ThinAirDesigns has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 51 by ThinAirDesigns, posted 11-14-2015 10:28 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

    
ThinAirDesigns
Member (Idle past 267 days)
Posts: 564
Joined: 02-12-2015


Message 51 of 112 (772447)
11-14-2015 10:28 AM
Reply to: Message 50 by Percy
11-14-2015 7:55 AM


The first Thrun vehicle I rode in was the Volkwagon Toureg (though not the original "Stanley"). This was not long after he won the 2005 Darpa Challenge and competed in the later 2007 version and had just moved to Google. We had a fair bit of real world Lidar tracking data (from a very different space) and being just around the corner from the Google shop and us having some industry notoriety he knew about us. He drove it over to talk with us, share info and give us rides. Later it was always one of their many Prius that I was around. I personally know a number of people involved in the project.

I have no idea currently their mix of vehicles, but the research was dominated by the Prius platform for many years.

JB

Edited by ThinAirDesigns, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 50 by Percy, posted 11-14-2015 7:55 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 17653
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.9


(1)
Message 52 of 112 (780728)
03-19-2016 12:58 PM


How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
An article from CBS Detroit (Autonomous Cars Arent Perfect, But How Safe Must They Be? is very positive about the potential for saving lives, but the statistics it musters in support are weak:

quote:
A Virginia Tech University study commissioned by Google found that the companys autonomous cars crashed 3.2 times per million miles compared with 4.2 times for human drivers. But the study had limitations. The human figures were increased to include an estimate of minor crashes that werent reported to police. All autonomous car crashes in California, however, must be reported. The study also didnt include potential crashes that were avoided when human backup drivers took control.

The human crash rate is 4.2/mm (mm=million miles), and Google's is 3.2/mm? And that's not counting the 13 times humans had to intervene in a Google car to avoid a crash, which if included in the 1.5 million miles that Google cars have driven would raise the rate to 11.9/mm, far above the human rate. That's not terribly reassuring.

But the death rate across the US is 1.08/hmm (hmm=hundred million miles), while Google's is 0/hmm. But Google cars haven't even driven a hundred million miles yet - they've got 98.5 million miles to go before they reach their first hundred million miles, and at the rate they're going it will take years. We don't yet have enough evidence to judge their safety in terms of saving human lives, and we won't for a long time.

Another factor is that at least some Google cars drive at a diminished speed of 25 mph according to some articles, and so must avoid the highways and the greater speeds where many fatalities happen, so the Google statistics for vehicle death rates will always be biased on the low side until they start driving a lot of highway miles at speeds of 60, 70 and 80 mph. If car companies want us to start risking our lives in their autonomous cars, then they should at least begin risking their experimental cars in real highway driving situations. Just how well does an autonomous car do on highways at 70 mph, or in New England snow, or even just a heavy downpour?

Imagine you're driving through open countryside on a New England highway on a clear day in winter. Ahead you see a long stretch of snow has been wind-blown onto your lane, but not the adjacent lane. Car's occupy the other lane, and the vehicle behind you is tailgating. What do you do? What would an autonomous car do? What is the best course of action?

Or you're driving through the mountains on Route 89 on a clear night in Vermont at night on your way into ski country, the traffic is heavy, and ahead you see a dance of many spinning headlights and taillights - glare ice. You hit the brakes lightly and discover that you, too, are already on glare ice, with cars still under control ahead of you, behind you and beside you, but you're all about to plow into an unfolding disaster. What's the best course of action? Could an autonomous car handle it at least as well as a human?

Obviously I'm in favor of autonomous vehicles eventually taking over all driving responsibilities, but I think it should happen no faster than the evidence justifies, and when evidence doesn't exist then we shouldn't move ahead. We may be in the experimental stage of complete vehicle autonomy for quite a while.

But in the meantime autonomous features will continue rolling out. We'll be getting autonomous emergency braking in all cars within the next six years, and some cars already have automatic lane maintenance. My current car is getting up there in age and will have to be replaced soon, but I think I might like to try to extend its life until more of these kinds of autonomous features are available.

I can't help adding a pet peeve. While I'm looking forward to autonomous cars, I can't stand much of the technology in newer cars, or at least in my wife's car. One simple thing I can't stand is the door locks. On the outside of the car each door handle has a lock button. When exiting I close the door, hit the button and start walking away. No beep. So thinking I didn't hit the button hard enough I turn and hit the button again, just as the car beeps and locks the car, and so I have now unlocked the car. This happens a lot because I only drive my wife's car a couple times a month and it has a lot of idiosyncratic things to remember about it, and this is one I always forget.

One of the wonderful things about older technology is that when you hit a button, things happen right away. On my old digital radio you hit a program button and it changed to the new station immediately. On my Internet clock radio you hit a program button for another radio station, and the current station keeps playing for another second or two. So thinking you didn't hit the button hard enough you hit it again, starting the delay process all over again. How about shutting off the current station immediately so you know something happened? The necessity for feedback for what you've done is why phone and tablet screens have started issuing a little vibration or buzz every time you hit a button on the screen, but the need for immediate feedback is widely ignored in this digital age.

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Typos.


Replies to this message:
 Message 54 by Hyroglyphx, posted 03-20-2016 12:43 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

    
Tangle
Member
Posts: 6081
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 1.9


Message 53 of 112 (780732)
03-19-2016 2:25 PM


Just on the crash rate thing - google's crash rate will be totally accurate, but I assume that the human crash rate will be massively understated. Humans have dozens of minor accidents that don't get reported - either to police or insurance. Or do they have a clever way of sampling those?

Also it's probably fair to assume that google will improve while people will still be people - albeit with improvements to people-driven cars too.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


  
Hyroglyphx
Member
Posts: 5583
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.1


Message 54 of 112 (780740)
03-20-2016 12:43 AM
Reply to: Message 52 by Percy
03-19-2016 12:58 PM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
The self-driving car still has a long way to go, I think. And even assuming their numbers of at-fault crashes reduces to almost nil, there still leaves the factor of other non-driverless cars that will still be around and that you still have to factor in to. The introduction of driverless cars would be as slow, if not slower, than the introduction of electric cars. It's been close to two decades and the combustion engine still outpaces the electric motor by at least 30:1, and that's probably a generous ratio. This means that it could take 2 to 4 decades to get to the point where virtually all the vehicles on the road are driverless.

So lets then suppose that Google, Tesla, Apple, or whomever works out the kinks enough to launch. Okay, so your car might not crash in to another vehicle, but what about other motorists crashing in to you or pedestrians that make stupid decisions? I doubt a driverless vehicle has the capacity to make extreme evasive maneuvers to avoid something like a deer darting out in the road at night as effectively as a human brain can process and react at this point in time.

It seems that just stopping the vehicle in many instances is simply not good enough because of inertia. Sometimes stomping on the brake while simultaneously swerving might be in order to narrowly avoid a collision, and from everything I've seen of the technology thus far, Google doesn't have an answer for it... yet.

The point is, how comfortable will people really be with just letting the car drive when at least 50% of driving is constantly scanning for threats and responding to those threats?


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by Percy, posted 03-19-2016 12:58 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by Straggler, posted 03-20-2016 3:52 AM Hyroglyphx has responded
 Message 56 by AZPaul3, posted 03-20-2016 5:28 AM Hyroglyphx has responded
 Message 64 by ringo, posted 03-20-2016 2:38 PM Hyroglyphx has not yet responded

    
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10199
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 55 of 112 (780750)
03-20-2016 3:52 AM
Reply to: Message 54 by Hyroglyphx
03-20-2016 12:43 AM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
I was under the impression that driverless cars are to be tested on the streets of London really quite soon.

I don't have a date but the way people are talking I was expecting this to happen in the next twelve months or so.

link


This message is a reply to:
 Message 54 by Hyroglyphx, posted 03-20-2016 12:43 AM Hyroglyphx has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 57 by Hyroglyphx, posted 03-20-2016 5:41 AM Straggler has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 3456
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006


Message 56 of 112 (780751)
03-20-2016 5:28 AM
Reply to: Message 54 by Hyroglyphx
03-20-2016 12:43 AM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
I doubt a driverless vehicle has the capacity to make extreme evasive maneuvers to avoid something like a deer darting out in the road at night as effectively as a human brain can process and react at this point in time.

My view is quite different. Even today, while the human is want to slam on the brakes most often leading to the dreaded break-lock disaster scenario anti-lock breaks take over to prevent it.

I see the self-driving car as having reaction times and reaction protocols much faster and safer than any human could follow. The self-driving car is constantly scanning for potential threats in a 360 pattern while the "driver" is distracted with pushing buttons trying to find the right tune on their 8-track tape deck. Yes, the return of the 8-track: Abba, Wayne Newton, Air Supply. The car would see the deer tracking in from the left-ahead long before while you're eyes are looking to the right at the center console and would anticipate evasive maneuvers long before you found "Danke Schoen."

I agree with the timing you stated, however. Production models of the autonomous car (the auto-car? ) are going to be quite expensive (with a capital X) for some time to come. Further, with the amount of stupid out there, even though they will be shown to be considerably safer, the Auto-CarTM will suffer image problems with every fender bender. This will delay the trust-factor in accepting the technology.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 54 by Hyroglyphx, posted 03-20-2016 12:43 AM Hyroglyphx has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 58 by Hyroglyphx, posted 03-20-2016 5:51 AM AZPaul3 has responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Member
Posts: 5583
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.1


Message 57 of 112 (780752)
03-20-2016 5:41 AM
Reply to: Message 55 by Straggler
03-20-2016 3:52 AM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
I was under the impression that driverless cars are to be tested on the streets of London really quite soon.

They've already been on San Francisco roadways for some time now and developers now feel like the car is safe enough to test in multiple cities with high-traffic.

My issue is whether or not I would feel comfortable sitting in the passenger seat of one on a major thoroughfare at this point. I don't think that I would be, and not because I think the technology doesn't work, but because it cannot account for other driver's reckless behaviors.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 55 by Straggler, posted 03-20-2016 3:52 AM Straggler has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 59 by Straggler, posted 03-20-2016 6:42 AM Hyroglyphx has responded

    
Hyroglyphx
Member
Posts: 5583
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.1


Message 58 of 112 (780753)
03-20-2016 5:51 AM
Reply to: Message 56 by AZPaul3
03-20-2016 5:28 AM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
I see the self-driving car as having reaction times and reaction protocols much faster and safer than any human could follow. The self-driving car is constantly scanning for potential threats in a 360 pattern while the "driver" is distracted with pushing buttons trying to find the right tune on their 8-track tape deck. Yes, the return of the 8-track: Abba, Wayne Newton, Air Supply. The car would see the deer tracking in from the left-ahead long before while you're eyes are looking to the right at the center console and would anticipate evasive maneuvers long before you found "Danke Schoen."

You make a good point. Perhaps in the sense of the deer coming out of the darkness, I suppose because it is using radar that it would pick up the object long before you were able to see it. But I don't know if it has the ability to swerve quickly. Here's one scenario that I would be astonished that it could be react faster than a human (although admittedly this scenario would be exceedingly rare, I only mention it to point out some of the potential flaws).

Supposing you were behind a truck carrying cargo and all of a sudden the straps give way and something like large drainage pipes fall of the vehicle... Would the sensor be able to pick that up better or faster than a human? A human can reason that the objects are about to fall before they are actually falling. The sensor only sees what it is actually happening and cannot anticipate. Those precious fractions of a second might mean life or death.

I have no doubt that the technology will eventually be superior to that of flawed, distracted humans... but I have doubts that it is all that sophisticated at this point and doubt even more that I could comfortably give up all the control over the vehicle for quite some time.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 56 by AZPaul3, posted 03-20-2016 5:28 AM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 61 by AZPaul3, posted 03-20-2016 8:10 AM Hyroglyphx has not yet responded

    
Straggler
Member
Posts: 10199
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 59 of 112 (780754)
03-20-2016 6:42 AM
Reply to: Message 57 by Hyroglyphx
03-20-2016 5:41 AM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
I cycle round London every day and accounting for the reckless behaviours of drivers is no easy task. But I'm not convinced that a driverless car need be any worse at doing so than a human. Someone slamming into the back of you or flying out of a side road without warning is a problem for human drivers and non-human drivers alike. The human proclivity to overreact in response to such situations, slam the brakes and throw the steering wheel to one side potentially ploughing into a bunch of pedestrians or causing a pile up of oncoming traffic on the other side of the road, might even be better dealt with by a machine.

An obvious answer to reckless drivers might be to make all cars driverless..... Individual vehicles operating as units in a wider single over-arching system. But that is probably some way off.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 57 by Hyroglyphx, posted 03-20-2016 5:41 AM Hyroglyphx has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 60 by Hyroglyphx, posted 03-20-2016 6:58 AM Straggler has responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Member
Posts: 5583
From: Austin, TX
Joined: 05-03-2006
Member Rating: 2.1


Message 60 of 112 (780755)
03-20-2016 6:58 AM
Reply to: Message 59 by Straggler
03-20-2016 6:42 AM


Re: How Safe Are Autonomous Vehicles?
An obvious answer to reckless drivers might be to make all cars driverless..... Individual vehicles operating as units in a wider single over-arching system. But that is probably some way off.

I have no doubt that they will one day be far more effective than even the most cautious and observant driver. I just don't know how long it will take to get to that point. Who knows, we may move beyond cars before they become very popular. The CEO of Tesla is very serious about patenting a "hyperloop" which (theoretically) can transport people from Dallas to Austin (about a 3 hour drive by auto) in under 15 minutes without the G-force ripping the bodies to pieces.

But back to the driverless cars, I wonder about the implications to insurance companies. If these devices become popular and prove effective, it would cut down on accidents which is good for them in the sense that they don't have to pay out as many insurance claims. But if it is extremely effective, many people may stop purchasing auto insurance at all which would be disastrous for them. I would be curious to sit in on a meeting at a large auto insurance company meeting to hear what they think are discussing concerning driverless cars. Surely they are paying close attention to the progress.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 59 by Straggler, posted 03-20-2016 6:42 AM Straggler has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 63 by Straggler, posted 03-20-2016 9:54 AM Hyroglyphx has not yet responded

    
Prev123
4
5678Next
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2015 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.0 Beta
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2018