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Author Topic:   Brexit - Should they stay or should they go?
NoNukes
Member
Posts: 9550
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 166 of 224 (787392)
07-12-2016 2:37 AM
Reply to: Message 164 by LamarkNewAge
07-09-2016 7:12 PM


Re: Bloomberg: Pound Overtakes Argentine Peso to Become 2016ís Worst Performer
A 12% drop this year against the dollar.

Not your fault for this kind of post, but it has only been a few weeks. The bulk of the drop is just a few weeks of reaction to Brexit.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams


This message is a reply to:
 Message 164 by LamarkNewAge, posted 07-09-2016 7:12 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
Pressie
Member
Posts: 1605
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 167 of 224 (787395)
07-12-2016 6:52 AM


Maybe Brexit is better for the EU
Maybe it's better for people living in Wrocław (the old Breslau) being part of the EU without Britain than being part of the EU with Britain?

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.

Edited by Pressie, : No reason given.


    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 772
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 168 of 224 (787400)
07-12-2016 12:50 PM
Reply to: Message 165 by bluegenes
07-12-2016 1:33 AM


Re: Bloomberg: Pound Overtakes Argentine Peso to Become 2016ís Worst Performer
quote:

LamarkNewAge writes:
"A 12% drop this year against the dollar.

Good job Brexit supporters.

Superb."

bluegenes responds:
"Yes. That'll help exports and improve the balance of payments if it's not just a jitter. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 is at an 11 month high."


Serena Williams has lost over $260,000 out of her fortune due to the collapse.

quote:

http://time.com/...na-williams-brexit-pound-prize-money-loss

Last July, the pound was worth $1.5516, giving Serena a prize of $2,929,500 for her 21st Major title. But todayís value of the pound at $1.30 means she will only walk home with $2,597,400.

So what should have been a massive 5% raise turned out to be a $332,100 pay cutĖaround 11% less than last year.


It is worth about $1.31 right now. It was about $1.48 at the time of the Brexit vote.

Investors are already moving their money into other countries, though many are living under the delusion that the pound will somehow rebound, thus holding it from further collapse.

Eventually interest rates will have to rise (possibly by a lot) if investor stop living under the delusion that they will somehow get a return on their investment that isn't negative.

Interest rates were as high as 20%+ in the USA in the early 1980s, and they had to be quite high for a good while till investor confidence returned.

The U.K. is playing a dangerous game with this Brexit b.s. (and the economically destructive anti-immigration turn).

quote:

Lamark writes:
"P.s. Don't forget to check google news for the continued collapse of the pound."

bluegenes responds:
"I think you'll be disappointed, if that was meant as a prediction."


Look at how foolish the investors have been in the last year? They are starting to wake up (despite the delusions of the dreamers that are still part of the mix).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 165 by bluegenes, posted 07-12-2016 1:33 AM bluegenes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 180 by bluegenes, posted 07-20-2016 6:12 AM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 772
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 169 of 224 (787516)
07-16-2016 3:14 PM


Effects of Brexit seen right now.
The currency is loosing value (about 10% since the Brexit vote and well over 15% since a year ago)

Prices are rocketing up.

quote:

How food, clothing and homeware bills are likely to rise
By Brian Milligan
Personal Finance reporter
15 July 2016
From the section Business

Even if the pound regains some of its value, currency experts expect it to remain at least 10% below where it was on 23 June, in the long term.
So imported goods are about to get pricier. The only question is when - and by how much.
....

The UK imports at least 40% of its food, according to government figures.
....
In the short term all the big retailers have hedged against currency risk - in effect they've insured themselves against a fall in the pound - but these hedges will start to unwind next year.
....
And what about the EU migrants who pick our home-grown fruit and vegetables on low wages?
"Without the freedom of movement, the cost of producing food in the UK will come under further upward pressure," says Andrew Stevens.
....
The US computer maker Dell has already raised prices by 10% to its UK retailers this month, and the Chinese smartphone company OnePlus has put some prices up by 6.5%.
John Lewis, which imports two-thirds of what it sells, says it too will be under pressure to raise prices.
It has hedged its currency transactions until the end of next year, but after that may find it hard to hold prices down.
"The pound is a big issue for us next year. It will have an effect," says Andy Street, the store's managing director.
"If inflation gets into the value chain and into prices, it will feed through."
....
Meanwhile 70% of the cars we buy are imported, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
But the structure of pricing is complex. Manufacturers have greater flexibility over their margins than shops on the High Street, and they usually set prices according to competition in the local market.
In theory, buying a British-made car might be cheaper, but most of these use foreign suppliers, increasing the cost of production even in the UK.
In fact nearly 60% of components used to make cars in the UK are bought from abroad.
At the least, car prices are unlikely to fall

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36794302


No wonder the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates the same or 0.25% above what would have happened absent Brexit.

Investors are preferring the Japanese yen as more stable than the pound (which is considered more unstable than bit-coin post-Brexit), and that currency should be considered a major risk IMO.

So the yen is gaining value against the pound. (like every other currency, including the Euro)

When the U.S. dollar was seen as a bad investment in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Japanese investors - who needed to dump the dollars they held - went to the United States land itself to purchase lots of property to protect themselves against dollar inflation.

I wonder if this will happen in the U.K.

Not yet it seems. See this link

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36783938

It says:
"Housing market 'falters amid Brexit campaign and vote'
14 July 2016"

That is just short term though.

Anyway, the suffering during higher prices and higher interest rates are what Ronald Reagan called the measurements of "The Misery Index". His solution was to have interest rates jacked up (Paul Volker was imposing it already) till investor confidence returned, then watch the national debt explode. Reagan (cough) paid for the much higher debt with (cough) tax cuts, and the debt exploded further. He increased military spending by around $100 billion per year by then end of his term (John Stockman attempted to keep the military spending increases minimal but Casper Weinberger won in influencing Reagan to jack them up a ton, though a tired, confused, Reagan only fully decided after Stockman gave him permission to go with Weinberger) and all the spending helped create jobs to compliment the already existing recovery that was in turn during the business cycle.

But the debt went up from $800 billion in 1981 to $4.2 trillion in 1993.

Interest rates went way down though.

The debt to GDP ration was much better for the U.S. in 1980 than for the U.K. in 2016. It was better in 1993 too. Much better still in 2000.

A miserable malaise is brewing in the British Isles.

There is inflation brewing.

What will happen with interest rates and economic growth?

What will investors do? (keep buying pounds and at what rate?)

Will Quantitative Easing be seen as a legit way to hold rates down? (granted it is presently seen as something not too much to worry over even though government printing money out of nowhere to purchase debt - treasury bonds OR mortgages - on the market was unheard of prior to late 2008)

At least this will be interesting.


    
anglagard
Member
Posts: 2158
From: Big Spring, TX, USA
Joined: 03-18-2006


Message 170 of 224 (787521)
07-16-2016 4:35 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Diomedes
06-05-2016 12:35 PM


2 Pence Worth
All I can say is I wish my ancestors, clan, and presumed distant relatives in Scotland a lucrative independence and a successful reintegration with the EU shortly after.

Meanwhile England becomes Texas, except without oil and guns.


Read not to contradict and confute, not to believe and take for granted, not to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider. - Francis Bacon

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Diomedes, posted 06-05-2016 12:35 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
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NoNukes
Member
Posts: 9550
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 171 of 224 (787558)
07-17-2016 3:49 PM
Reply to: Message 170 by anglagard
07-16-2016 4:35 PM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
Meanwhile England becomes Texas, except without oil and guns.

Ouch. And possibly without a huge chunk of their financial sector. I suppose one way to solve an immigration problem is to create a country to which folks won't want to move.

What's the Brexit plan again?

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams


This message is a reply to:
 Message 170 by anglagard, posted 07-16-2016 4:35 PM anglagard has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 172 by Tangle, posted 07-17-2016 4:28 PM NoNukes has responded

    
Tangle
Member
Posts: 4646
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.3


Message 172 of 224 (787560)
07-17-2016 4:28 PM
Reply to: Message 171 by NoNukes
07-17-2016 3:49 PM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
NN writes:


Ouch. And possibly without a huge chunk of their financial sector.

That now seems unlikely.

I suppose one way to solve an immigration problem is to create a country to which folks won't want to move.

It's also unlikely that the immigration problem will be solved. The talk now is of downplaying freedom of movement because it's a redline for the EU if you want to trade with them without tariffs. Who would have guessed?

What's the Brexit plan again?

Yeeees. Will have to get back to you on that one.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 171 by NoNukes, posted 07-17-2016 3:49 PM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 173 by NoNukes, posted 07-17-2016 4:49 PM Tangle has responded

  
NoNukes
Member
Posts: 9550
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 173 of 224 (787561)
07-17-2016 4:49 PM
Reply to: Message 172 by Tangle
07-17-2016 4:28 PM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
That now seems unlikely.

Unlikely that a substantial number of financial folks will move over the next decade or so? I think it is too early to tell.

The talk now is of downplaying freedom of movement because it's a redline for the EU if you want to trade with them without tariffs. Who would have guessed?

That's what the rational minds are saying, but it wasn't the rational minds who wanted out of the EU. If the freedom of movement gets downplayed isn't that just going to make folks angry again?

Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams


This message is a reply to:
 Message 172 by Tangle, posted 07-17-2016 4:28 PM Tangle has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 174 by Tangle, posted 07-17-2016 5:24 PM NoNukes has acknowledged this reply
 Message 175 by ringo, posted 07-18-2016 12:07 PM NoNukes has responded

    
Tangle
Member
Posts: 4646
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 4.3


Message 174 of 224 (787562)
07-17-2016 5:24 PM
Reply to: Message 173 by NoNukes
07-17-2016 4:49 PM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
NN writes:

Unlikely that a substantial number of financial folks will move over the next decade or so? I think it is too early to tell.

A lot will, but so far, it's much less than was expected. 10 years? Well who knows?

That's what the rational minds are saying, but it wasn't the rational minds who wanted out of the EU. If the freedom of movement gets downplayed isn't that just going to make folks angry again?

It'll certainly make a lot of people very unhappy. Whether that matters or not depends whether we're also in the middle of a raging recession with high unemployment or doing ok actually. Otherwise it's riots.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 173 by NoNukes, posted 07-17-2016 4:49 PM NoNukes has acknowledged this reply

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 13026
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 175 of 224 (787579)
07-18-2016 12:07 PM
Reply to: Message 173 by NoNukes
07-17-2016 4:49 PM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
NoNukes writes:

That's what the rational minds are saying, but it wasn't the rational minds who wanted out of the EU.


"I disagree with them so they're not rational."

That doesn't seem rational to me.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 173 by NoNukes, posted 07-17-2016 4:49 PM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 176 by NoNukes, posted 07-18-2016 3:46 PM ringo has responded

  
NoNukes
Member
Posts: 9550
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 176 of 224 (787587)
07-18-2016 3:46 PM
Reply to: Message 175 by ringo
07-18-2016 12:07 PM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
That's what the rational minds are saying, but it wasn't the rational minds who wanted out of the EU.

Did I give a reason for considering their votes not to be rational? I am certainly willing to discuss this, but you've made a pretty silly assumption here.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams


This message is a reply to:
 Message 175 by ringo, posted 07-18-2016 12:07 PM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 177 by ringo, posted 07-19-2016 11:36 AM NoNukes has responded

    
ringo
Member
Posts: 13026
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 177 of 224 (787614)
07-19-2016 11:36 AM
Reply to: Message 176 by NoNukes
07-18-2016 3:46 PM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
NoNukes writes:

Did I give a reason for considering their votes not to be rational?


You didn't give a reason. That's why I question how rational your statement is. You're the one who seems to be making a silly assumption that " it wasn't the rational minds who wanted out of the EU".
This message is a reply to:
 Message 176 by NoNukes, posted 07-18-2016 3:46 PM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 178 by frako, posted 07-19-2016 5:27 PM ringo has responded
 Message 179 by NoNukes, posted 07-19-2016 9:25 PM ringo has responded

  
frako
Member
Posts: 2695
From: slovenija
Joined: 09-04-2010
Member Rating: 2.2


Message 178 of 224 (787627)
07-19-2016 5:27 PM
Reply to: Message 177 by ringo
07-19-2016 11:36 AM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
it wasn't the rational minds who wanted out of the EU

Well given that they voted to pay the same tarifs to trade with the eu, but not get a voice in how the eu market is run, over paying tarifs geting some of the money back and having a vote on how the eu market is run. My guess is that they where not so rational. As they dont have the Euro and ar not part of the shengen borders nothing else changes with them leaving.


Christianity, One woman's lie about an affair that got seriously out of hand

What are the Christians gonna do to me ..... Forgive me, good luck with that.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 177 by ringo, posted 07-19-2016 11:36 AM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
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NoNukes
Member
Posts: 9550
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 179 of 224 (787643)
07-19-2016 9:25 PM
Reply to: Message 177 by ringo
07-19-2016 11:36 AM


Re: 2 Pence Worth
You didn't give a reason. That's why I question how rational your statement is.

Right. Except that you did not question me. You instead asserted a rationale for me that you could denounce.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams


This message is a reply to:
 Message 177 by ringo, posted 07-19-2016 11:36 AM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 183 by ringo, posted 07-20-2016 11:53 AM NoNukes has not yet responded

    
bluegenes
Member
Posts: 3091
From: U.K.
Joined: 01-24-2007
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 180 of 224 (787658)
07-20-2016 6:12 AM
Reply to: Message 168 by LamarkNewAge
07-12-2016 12:50 PM


Re: Bloomberg: Pound Overtakes Argentine Peso to Become 2016ís Worst Performer
LamarckNewAge writes:

Lamark writes:
"P.s. Don't forget to check google news for the continued collapse of the pound."
bluegenes responds:
"I think you'll be disappointed, if that was meant as a prediction."

The pound had hit $1.29090 before you gave the us the advice to check google news for the "continued collapse" of the pound.

So, when will this "continued collapse" happen?

As for the stock market, it could hardly be doing better.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 168 by LamarkNewAge, posted 07-12-2016 12:50 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

  
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